Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Hodge]

Gushchin with his offensive skill has a very high ceiling. He has always been unlikely to hit given his size concerns but if he does hit then it would be a big boost to the rebuild.

Yeah if someone like Gushchin, Bordeleau or Graf unexpectedly hits as a top six forward it makes it a lot easier to include a Musty, Chernyshov or Halttunen in a trade package for a top 4 defenseman.

 

[coooldude]

Yeah if someone like Gushchin, Bordeleau or Graf unexpectedly hits as a top six forward it makes it a lot easier to include a Musty, Chernyshov or Halttunen in a trade package for a top 4 defenseman.

Assuming this "best case", we still need one of those bigger wingers to hit, because we'll be looking at a top 6 "core" or semi-core of Eklund, Celebrini, Smith, Gushchin/Bords/Graf, and two more. That's at least 4 average-to-small forwards in the top 6. They better be transcendent. This is the problem with chasing "value" when drafting -- eventually your pool just lacks the meat that you need to win battles in the corner and in the front of the net.

 

[Hodge]

Assuming this "best case", we still need one of those bigger wingers to hit, because we'll be looking at a top 6 "core" or semi-core of Eklund, Celebrini, Smith, Gushchin/Bords/Graf, and two more. That's at least 4 average-to-small forwards in the top 6. They better be transcendent. This is the problem with chasing "value" when drafting -- eventually your pool just lacks the meat that you need to win battles in the corner and in the front of the net.

The flip side is that the bigger wingers should also, at least theoretically, have more trade value. Definitely agree that we need more size in the top six though. This is why I'm hoping for Martone in the draft unless someone emerges as a legit #1 defense prospect.

 

[YUPPY 2 7 10 11]

Assuming this "best case", we still need one of those bigger wingers to hit, because we'll be looking at a top 6 "core" or semi-core of Eklund, Celebrini, Smith, Gushchin/Bords/Graf, and two more. That's at least 4 average-to-small forwards in the top 6. They better be transcendent. This is the problem with chasing "value" when drafting -- eventually your pool just lacks the meat that you need to win battles in the corner and in the front of the net.

Sharks need a couple more Celebrinis to be able to seriously compete. Sign, draft or steal from others teams is the way to go.

 

[gaucholoco3]

Maybe I'm remembering wrong but didn't the Lund line only play like 8-10 games together last season (if that)?

Yes I think this is true. It’s because of the Zetterlund and Eklund bromance and a gimmicky name that ever puts that line on a pedestal. If there wasn’t a catchy way to describe the line it wouldn’t even be memorable.

It’s like the burger line of a jumbo heated patty. It’s why marketing professionals make a lot of money. Everyone likes a catchy gimmick.

 

[Cas]

Just out of curiosity - what's the benefit of not putting Logan on the LTIR? I know we don't need the space, but what if we could use it in the future? (I understand it's unlikely we pick up that huge of a cap dump mid season)

We won't accrue any cap space as long as Couture (or anyone else) is on LTIR.

 

[TheBeard]

Sharks need a couple more Celebrinis to be able to seriously compete. Sign, draft or steal from others teams is the way to go.

No team has ever had three "celebrinis" unless you're counting, like the Oilers of the 80s.

 

[Erep]

Also, even if the Lund line is the best option now (which as stated, is debatable.) Celebrini-Eklund feels like the core of your elite 2way line for a long time. They will get the difficult matchups, and should be the critical PK and SH threat pair, so starting working on that now, seems like a good option.

 

[Hodge]

No team has ever had three "celebrinis" unless you're counting, like the Oilers of the 80s.

Yeah I'll settle for two Celebrinis although it's entirely possible we're bad enough for long enough to get three.

 

[STL Shark]

Also, even if the Lund line is the best option now (which as stated, is debatable.) Celebrini-Eklund feels like the core of your elite 2way line for a long time. They will get the difficult matchups, and should be the critical PK and SH threat pair, so starting working on that now, seems like a good option.

Bingo. Smith is the guy that needs more help with center duties compared to Celebrini as well. Makes a ton of sense to have him with Granlund to help with some of that responsibility early.

Really, my only complaint on the roster is that I'd prefer Gushchin-Wennberg-Dellandrea as the 3rd with Goodrow-Sturm-Kunin on the 4th line.

That said, Sturm has shown he can be a 25-30 point a year guy between his time in Minnesota and his first year in SJ so maybe that difference in centers will be pretty meaningless if he has some linemates that can contribute offense (probably helps his trade value too as a likely deadline mover).

 

[Cas]

That said, Sturm has shown he can be a 25-30 point a year guy between his time in Minnesota and his first year in SJ so maybe that difference in centers will be pretty meaningless if he has some linemates that can contribute offense (probably helps his trade value too as a likely deadline mover).

Sturm has had 26 points once, when he was getting 3rd line minutes that he should never see again. He's also 29 and probably has 3-4 years left in his NHL career, because he's not actually very good now and it's all downhill from here.

 

[Jargon]

I think the top 2 lines are pretty set at least for now and will be played for a few games to see how they do, but I think the bottom 6 are really fluid. I know Goose is on the 4th line, but I imagine if we need to score/he’s doing really well, he’ll be moved up to Wennberg’s line.

 

[Jargon]

Assuming this "best case", we still need one of those bigger wingers to hit, because we'll be looking at a top 6 "core" or semi-core of Eklund, Celebrini, Smith, Gushchin/Bords/Graf, and two more. That's at least 4 average-to-small forwards in the top 6. They better be transcendent. This is the problem with chasing "value" when drafting -- eventually your pool just lacks the meat that you need to win battles in the corner and in the front of the net.

If Gushchin hits and is a top 6 guy, then each line can have a big winger — a Zetterlund, a Musty, etc., and hopefully that’s enough. Celebrini isn’t tiny and is quite strong, so I think he’ll generally be okay.

I agree with @Hodge though, the more guys like Goose who can breakout and become more successful than we expect will really open up trade opportunities for that coveted 1D we desperately need.

 

[coooldude]

If Gushchin hits and is a top 6 guy, then each line can have a big winger — a Zetterlund, a Musty, etc., and hopefully that’s enough. Celebrini isn’t tiny and is quite strong, so I think he’ll generally be okay.

I agree with @Hodge though, the more guys like Goose who can breakout and become more successful than we expect will really open up trade opportunities for that coveted 1D we desperately need.

Oh yeah, it's great if prospects hit. I just think it's more likely we move Gushchin even with a great season, and still look to get bigger up front.

 

[STL Shark]

Sturm has had 26 points once, when he was getting 3rd line minutes that he should never see again. He's also 29 and probably has 3-4 years left in his NHL career, because he's not actually very good now and it's all downhill from here.

He scored at a 28 point per 82 game pace in 2020-21 in the shortened season, 26 point pace in 2021-22 with Minnesota, and 29 point pace in 2022-23 with SJ.

Last year's scoring was the anomaly of his career as opposed to the norm. Not saying he's great, but with a playmaking wing he should be expected to get into the 25-30 point range again. I'd still prefer those two with Wennberg, but the dropoff is probably not too significant right now.

 

[Hodge]

Sturm is an excellent 4C. Before we brought Goodrow back I was hoping we would extend him.

 

[Herschel]

If Gushchin hits and is a top 6 guy, then each line can have a big winger — a Zetterlund, a Musty, etc., and hopefully that’s enough. Celebrini isn’t tiny and is quite strong, so I think he’ll generally be okay.

I agree with @Hodge though, the more guys like Goose who can breakout and become more successful than we expect will really open up trade opportunities for that coveted 1D we desperately need.

Celebrini is a pretty similar size to Sid when he was drafted, I believe Celebrini is actually a bit bigger.

 

[Star Platinum]

LTIR doesn't actually create any extra cap space. It allows teams to exceed the cap by the amount of the injured player's cap hit. Since we're well under the cap it doesn't help us.

That's good knowledge

 

[TheBeard]

Yeah I'll settle for two Celebrinis although it's entirely possible we're bad enough for long enough to get three.

Unless we’re winning the lotto in two years, finishing last again two years running with Celebrini means he’s not the Celebrini we were hoping for.

Sturm is an excellent 4C. Before we brought Goodrow back I was hoping we would extend him.

I would be fine with that. A center lineup of Celebrini, Smith, Bystedt and Sturm.

Sturm has had 26 points once, when he was getting 3rd line minutes that he should never see again. He's also 29 and probably has 3-4 years left in his NHL career, because he's not actually very good now and it's all downhill from here.

I’d keep him around strictly for his faceoff efficiency. Having someone on your 4th line winning FO at a 60% clip is huge.

 

[YUPPY 2 7 10 11]

Celebrini is a pretty similar size to Sid when he was drafted, I believe Celebrini is actually a bit bigger.

Celebrini is about 1/2 inch taller than Sid.

 

[Patty Ice]

Askarov's maskarov

 

[Crewouse]

Askarov's maskarov

I kind of like the 50/50 idea, the mask is ugly tho

 

[Stewie Griffin]

I kind of like the 50/50 idea, the mask is ugly tho

Well unless you watch Cuda games you won't see it too often lol

 

[coooldude]

Unless we’re winning the lotto in two years, finishing last again two years running with Celebrini means he’s not the Celebrini we were hoping for.

Pens drafted Whitney at 5OA - either our Smith or our Eklund - and then MAF, Malkin, Crosby, Staal. The following year they made the playoffs, but they had already drafted Orpik, Talbot, and Letang (in Crosby's year) as well.

Assuming Celebrini is "our Malkin", he was still amazing even though they picked 2OA 2 years later. If we pick top 3 for two more seasons, it doesn't mean we are failing at the rebuild. In fact it might set us up for a decade of contention.

 

[sampler]

Pens drafted Whitney at 5OA - either our Smith or our Eklund - and then MAF, Malkin, Crosby, Staal. The following year they made the playoffs, but they had already drafted Orpik, Talbot, and Letang (in Crosby's year) as well.

Assuming Celebrini is "our Malkin", he was still amazing even though they picked 2OA 2 years later. If we pick top 3 for two more seasons, it doesn't mean we are failing at the rebuild. In fact it might set us up for a decade of contention.
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Pitt got flat out lucky with crosby. That was the lockout and they won a 30 team lottery.

I dont think picking top 2 (or 5) for half a decade is a good plan. If it happens, it happens, but I dont think its needed. Edm got 1OA several times, but those franchises stunk for so long.

Others might not mind another 3-5 years of stink, but I, for one, am tired of it. I also look at many teams that stink, get top picks, and never relaly stop stinking due to other poor managerial choices.

Look at Buf 2013-2022:

Ristolainen 8OA (2013)
reinhardt 2 (2014)
Eichel 2 (2015)
Alex Nylander 8 (2016)
Casey middlestedt 8 (2017)
Dahlin 1 (2018)
Cozens 7 (2019)
jack Quinn 8 (2020)
Power 1 (2021)
Savoie 9 (2022)

that's 10 straight draft years in the top 10 including 2 1OA and 2 2OA. perhaps they will be good soon, but no rela signs of dominance just yet. thats alot of suffering for very little payoff.

A big reason Pitt won was also picking guys like Letang or goligosky in the 60 OA range, as well as some deft moves and signings, ike adding Billy guerin and Kris kunitz, or kessell in 2016. It wasnt 100% crosby/malkin.

I also think one of the reasons edm didnt win (or come close until last year was a lack of intelligent building of the team. The real deft move last year was getting ekholm, and adding hyman a few years before. Its not just Mcdavid/Draisaitl/RNH.

I understand the sharks may suck, but I dont want that to be considered OK. It should suck to suck, and with deft signings and trades, I dont believe they have to suck for long. Just have to add quality guys like toffoli rather than spend 10's of millions of guys like kunin, sturm, kostin, gunrdstrom, wennberg, or goodrow. Thats 6 bottom six forwards for a combined over 17M (plus 8m unused).

take that 25M in space and you can easily buy 3-4 top 6 forward, top 4 D level players. I truly believe, at least next year, that if you add two top 4 D and two top 6 forwards to this roster, we will be respectable. Maybe this year is too early, but it doesnt need to be 3-5 years out with 4 more top 3 picks to get there.