Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Pinkfloyd]

Pitt got flat out lucky with crosby. That was the lockout and they won a 30 team lottery.

I dont think picking top 2 (or 5) for half a decade is a good plan. If it happens, it happens, but I dont think its needed. Edm got 1OA several times, but those franchises stunk for so long.

Others might not mind another 3-5 years of stink, but I, for one, am tired of it. I also look at many teams that stink, get top picks, and never relaly stop stinking due to other poor managerial choices.

Look at Buf 2013-2022:

Ristolainen 8OA (2013)
reinhardt 2 (2014)
Eichel 2 (2015)
Alex Nylander 8 (2016)
Casey middlestedt 8 (2017)
Dahlin 1 (2018)
Cozens 7 (2019)
jack Quinn 8 (2020)
Power 1 (2021)
Savoie 9 (2022)

that's 10 straight draft years in the top 10 including 2 1OA and 2 2OA. perhaps they will be good soon, but no rela signs of dominance just yet. thats alot of suffering for very little payoff.

A big reason Pitt won was also picking guys like Letang or goligosky in the 60 OA range, as well as some deft moves and signings, ike adding Billy guerin and Kris kunitz, or kessell in 2016. It wasnt 100% crosby/malkin.

I also think one of the reasons edm didnt win (or come close until last year was a lack of intelligent building of the team. The real deft move last year was getting ekholm, and adding hyman a few years before. Its not just Mcdavid/Draisaitl/RNH.

I understand the sharks may suck, but I dont want that to be considered OK. It should suck to suck, and with deft signings and trades, I dont believe they have to suck for long. Just have to add quality guys like toffoli rather than spend 10's of millions of guys like kunin, sturm, kostin, gunrdstrom, wennberg, or goodrow. Thats 6 bottom six forwards for a combined over 17M (plus 8m unused).

take that 25M in space and you can easily buy 3-4 top 6 forward, top 4 D level players. I truly believe, at least next year, that if you add two top 4 D and two top 6 forwards to this roster, we will be respectable. Maybe this year is too early, but it doesnt need to be 3-5 years out with 4 more top 3 picks to get there.

The Sharks will have to suck until they luck themselves into a legitimate top defenseman to anchor them. I think you can manage to find blue liners that work for you from 2-6 but 1 is ridiculously difficult to find.

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

Pitt got flat out lucky with crosby. That was the lockout and they won a 30 team lottery.

I dont think picking top 2 (or 5) for half a decade is a good plan. If it happens, it happens, but I dont think its needed. Edm got 1OA several times, but those franchises stunk for so long.

Others might not mind another 3-5 years of stink, but I, for one, am tired of it. I also look at many teams that stink, get top picks, and never relaly stop stinking due to other poor managerial choices.

Look at Buf 2013-2022:

Ristolainen 8OA (2013)
reinhardt 2 (2014)
Eichel 2 (2015)
Alex Nylander 8 (2016)
Casey middlestedt 8 (2017)
Dahlin 1 (2018)
Cozens 7 (2019)
jack Quinn 8 (2020)
Power 1 (2021)
Savoie 9 (2022)

that's 10 straight draft years in the top 10 including 2 1OA and 2 2OA. perhaps they will be good soon, but no rela signs of dominance just yet. thats alot of suffering for very little payoff.

A big reason Pitt won was also picking guys like Letang or goligosky in the 60 OA range, as well as some deft moves and signings, ike adding Billy guerin and Kris kunitz, or kessell in 2016. It wasnt 100% crosby/malkin.

I also think one of the reasons edm didnt win (or come close until last year was a lack of intelligent building of the team. The real deft move last year was getting ekholm, and adding hyman a few years before. Its not just Mcdavid/Draisaitl/RNH.

I understand the sharks may suck, but I dont want that to be considered OK. It should suck to suck, and with deft signings and trades, I dont believe they have to suck for long. Just have to add quality guys like toffoli rather than spend 10's of millions of guys like kunin, sturm, kostin, gunrdstrom, wennberg, or goodrow. Thats 6 bottom six forwards for a combined over 17M (plus 8m unused).

take that 25M in space and you can easily buy 3-4 top 6 forward, top 4 D level players. I truly believe, at least next year, that if you add two top 4 D and two top 6 forwards to this roster, we will be respectable. Maybe this year is too early, but it doesnt need to be 3-5 years out with 4 more top 3 picks to get there.

Not that its really pertinent but the lottery for Crosby was weighted, not a 30 team free for all for Crosby

 

[TheBeard]

Pens drafted Whitney at 5OA - either our Smith or our Eklund - and then MAF, Malkin, Crosby, Staal. The following year they made the playoffs, but they had already drafted Orpik, Talbot, and Letang (in Crosby's year) as well.

Assuming Celebrini is "our Malkin", he was still amazing even though they picked 2OA 2 years later. If we pick top 3 for two more seasons, it doesn't mean we are failing at the rebuild. In fact it might set us up for a decade of contention.
View attachment 914027

I see it as Askarov is our Fleury, Smith = Malkin and Celebrini = Crosby (the hope anyways)

Ryan Whitney was an ok pick in a very weak draft. I hope whomever we end up with in this upcoming draft is far better than Ryan Whitney.

 

[coooldude]

I see it as Askarov is our Fleury, Smith = Malkin and Celebrini = Crosby (the hope anyways)

Ryan Whitney was an ok pick in a very weak draft. I hope whomever we end up with in this upcoming draft is far better than Ryan Whitney.

Ryan Whitney was before MAF. You may have meant "Jordan Staal" who would be our 2025 draft pick equivalent.

I, personally, don't think Smith is a Malkin-caliber talent and only 5-10 hockey players ever have been a Crosby caliber so it's unrealistic to expect that of Celebrini. Therefore, I don't agree with you that if we pick top 3 this year, and also top 3 in 2026, that it means that either Smith or Celebrini are busts.

I've said it before and I'll say it again -- I expect us to pick top 3 this year and top 5 next year, and I also think we need those high draft shots on goal to build a true core of a contender.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

The Sharks will have to suck until they luck themselves into a legitimate top defenseman to anchor them. I think you can manage to find blue liners that work for you from 2-6 but 1 is ridiculously difficult to find.

When you take a look at the teams that have won recently and where they got their 1D, this really isn’t the case. Some have an elite guy they got through the lottery (Hedman, Makar) and others had a less than elite guy that they didn’t draft (Forsling, Pietrangelo).

 

[coooldude]

When you take a look at the teams that have won recently and where they got their 1D, this really isn’t the case. Some have an elite guy they got through the lottery (Hedman, Makar) and others had a less than elite guy that they didn’t draft (Forsling, Pietrangelo).

Although Pietrangelo is ALSO an example of drafting your #1D, for the Blues.

 

[TheBeard]

Ryan Whitney was before MAF. You may have meant "Jordan Staal" who would be our 2025 draft pick equivalent.

I, personally, don't think Smith is a Malkin-caliber talent and only 5-10 hockey players ever have been a Crosby caliber so it's unrealistic to expect that of Celebrini. Therefore, I don't agree with you that if we pick top 3 this year, and also top 3 in 2026, that it means that either Smith or Celebrini are busts.

I've said it before and I'll say it again -- I expect us to pick top 3 this year and top 5 next year, and I also think we need those high draft shots on goal to build a true core of a contender.

Picking top 3 is different than picking 2 more Celebrinis (which i took as meaning picking first overall). If that's the case we'd have to "win" one lotto and outright finish dead last again. I don't see that happening personally and I would be really disappointed if we're still picking bottom 3 in 2 years.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

When you take a look at the teams that have won recently and where they got their 1D, this really isn’t the case. Some have an elite guy they got through the lottery (Hedman, Makar) and others had a less than elite guy that they didn’t draft (Forsling, Pietrangelo).

Isn't it though in how it applies to the Sharks? Three of those four were high draft picks. Pietrangelo went to Vegas through free agency when we have notable issues luring free agents our way. Forsling is a complete outlier. Something that is certainly possible but is extremely unlikely. I don't think we can replicate a 24 year old that spent the previous year in the AHL being put on waivers and turning immediately into a #3 and soon into a sort of #1. For the Sharks, the best odds of us getting that top defenseman will remain the draft and we will probably continue to suck because the options outside of that are so few and far between.

 

[Jargon]

My hope is that Grier, having taken care of goalie and with a trove of offensive prospects, is now focusing heavily on finding high-caliber D to trade for. I think Dickinson and Muhk can, at their best, be a #2 and #3 defenseman (or #3/#4). Ferraro is also likely a #4 on a good team. I'm hopeful that one or two of Cagnoni, LSW, Furlong, Thompson, etc. etc., can fill out some of the other holes on D (god, are they all LDs?! That's wild).

So, I actually think, potentially, in the next couple of years, we can fill out a pretty good defensive corp with our prospects/free agency. It's even possible to maybe just run 6 really strong guys with no one necessarily being that top #1 star but with each pairing being able to play solid D and move the puck.
Of course, if Grier somehow manages to swing a trade and get us a #1Dman in the next year (I don't even know who that would be), it would certainly speed things along.

I'm actually hopeful that the Sharks will be more competitive sooner than we think (I mean like, make-the-playoffs competitive, not compete for the Cup or anything).

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Isn't it though in how it applies to the Sharks? Three of those four were high draft picks. Pietrangelo went to Vegas through free agency when we have notable issues luring free agents our way. Forsling is a complete outlier. Something that is certainly possible but is extremely unlikely. I don't think we can replicate a 24 year old that spent the previous year in the AHL being put on waivers and turning immediately into a #3 and soon into a sort of #1. For the Sharks, the best odds of us getting that top defenseman will remain the draft and we will probably continue to suck because the options outside of that are so few and far between.

We acquired 3 defensemen better than Forsling or Pietrangelo through trade in a 10-year span. Forsling himself may have been a fluke but it’s pretty reasonable to expect us to be able to acquire an equal or superior defenseman outside of drafting them ourselves in the top-5. Hell, it wouldn’t be unreasonable for Dickinson to turn out better than Forsling.

 

[knu]

Win the lottery trade back to 3, fill all holes. Profit.

 

[weastern bias]

Win the lottery trade back to 3, fill all holes. Profit.

fill all holes

MODS!

 

[sampler]

The sharks havent drafted a true #1 D in their entire franchise history, I would argue, and they dont have to draft one now. Why? TRADE and UFA! Number 1 D dont come around too much, but when they do, you jump on it.

DW did this with Boyle. he did this with Burns. He added Blake thru UFA. paul martin too. Added Dillon through trade but resigned as UFA.

Of course drafting a Quinn Hughes or a Cale Makar is ideal, but its not necessary. You do have to build much of your D through the draft (like we did with Carle, Vlasic, Ehrhoff, ferraro, Bruan, demers, Demelo, and other mid pair type guys), but a deft GM can snipe top D when they hit the market.

This is why I think the sharks can be much closer to competing for real. Cagnoni and thompson looked good. Mukh might too. We have some good young D to build around. We obviously have a bunch of good young forwards to build around too. Grier just have to sharply deploy cap space on solid top 4 D and top 6 forwards, and trade some of the depth prospects and future draft capital for top pairing D.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

We acquired 3 defensemen better than Forsling or Pietrangelo through trade in a 10-year span. Forsling himself may have been a fluke but it’s pretty reasonable to expect us to be able to acquire an equal or superior defenseman outside of drafting them ourselves in the top-5. Hell, it wouldn’t be unreasonable for Dickinson to turn out better than Forsling.

Possibly but I think it's a lot different acquiring those types of players when you're competing as opposed to when you're rebuilding. It's getting harder with trade clauses being more prevalent to snag that sort of player. We basically have to target RFA status players that are questionable as top guys because if the team that has them believes they are, they won't be available to us.