Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[one2gamble]

Campells contract is a straight poison pill.

 

[Cas]

Campbell's contract is something we can easily afford, and we can always buy him out. It's not onerous to use.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't hold out for a nice return were we to decide to go for him, just that his contract will not prevent us from signing/resigning anyone useful. We're going to suck for the next few years anyway.

 

[Hodge]

Campells contract is a straight poison pill.

Except it really isn’t. Karlsson, Vlasic, Couture…those contracts are poison pills. Campbell’s is relatively painless to buy out.

 

[one2gamble]

Except it really isn’t. Karlsson, Vlasic, Couture…those contracts are poison pills. Campbell’s is relatively painless to buy out.

What do you think it would cost to move Vlasic c if he had 5 years left on his contract

 

[Hodge]

What do you think it would cost to move Vlasic c if he had 5 years left on his contract

Again, Vlasic’s contract is buyout proof due to the signing bonuses in the final 2 years. Campbell has no more bonuses due to him. Vlasic also has a bigger cap hit by 2M/yr, is 5 years older, essentially has no chance of bouncing back to being worth even 25% of his contract while Campbell easily could, etc. They’re not comparable at all.

 

[Hodge]

I think too many Sharks fans are still stuck in a contending team mindset where every cent accounted for under the cap legitimately does matter.

Now that Karlsson, Kane, Burns and Jones are largely off the books and we sidestepped the Meier landmine, we literally have more cap space than we can realistically spend starting next season.

That doesn’t mean we should take on a dump like Campbell for a 3rd round pick or something but it does mean cap space is not even remotely a concern at least until Eklund and Smith are both on big boy contracts. Even then, that will coincide with Couture, Vlasic and the Burns/Karlsson retention coming off the books.

 

[Gecklund]

I think too many Sharks fans are still stuck in a contending team mindset where every cent accounted for under the cap legitimately does matter.

Now that Karlsson, Kane, Burns and Jones are largely off the books and we sidestepped the Meier landmine, we literally have more cap space than we can realistically spend starting next season.

That doesn’t mean we should take on a dump like Campbell for a 3rd round pick or something but it does mean cap space is not even remotely a concern at least until Eklund and Smith are both on big boy contracts. Even then, that will coincide with Couture, Vlasic and the Burns/Karlsson retention coming off the books.

You are basically asking us to take on Campbell for a 3rd. I get it I agree that we can take on Campbell but there’s no reason for us to take him on for meh pieces.

 

[Hodge]

You are basically asking us to take on Campbell for a 3rd. I get it I agree that we can take on Campbell but there’s no reason for us to take him on for meh pieces.

How is “Broberg, Petrov and Edmonton’s 2024 2nd” equivalent to a 3rd?

It would obviously be great to get more but I don’t think it’s in the cards. It makes no sense for the Oilers to give up even a top 10 protected 1st in their current position. Even if they did, it’s probably not coming with Broberg.

 

[Gecklund]

How is “Broberg, Petrov and Edmonton’s 2024 2nd” equivalent to a 3rd?

It would obviously be great to get more but I don’t think it’s in the cards. It makes no sense for the Oilers to give up even a top 10 protected 1st in their current position. Even if they did, it’s probably not coming with Broberg.

I mean personally I have no interest in Broberg. Petrov I like but he’s been horrible in the AHL.

 

[Hodge]

I mean personally I have no interest in Broberg. Petrov I like but he’s been horrible in the AHL.

Broberg is more valuable than an Oilers top 10 protected 1st. You're getting a guaranteed NHL player in Broberg, even if he never progresses beyond being a third pair defenseman. There's only about a 20-30% chance a late 1st makes it to 200 NHL games and less than a 1% chance they become a legit top of the lineup player. Broberg certainly has much higher odds than that. 2nd+Petrov is objectively more valuable than a 3rd.

Yes there's some remote chance the Oilers miss the playoffs, McDavid and Draisaitl demand and are granted trades and we end up with a top 5 pick in 2025. That should be factored into the analysis but it's so remote that it's not really worth considering IMO. More than likely the Oilers will have McDavid and Draisaitl for at least one more year after this one and will therefore bounce back and make the playoffs.

 

[spintops]

I'm fine with that kind of package if Hasso is willing to buy out salary dumps. I mean get the best package you can possibly get and keep the dumps to the next 2 years (for now). We are going to have a bunch of unused cap space and it would be nice to finally weaponize it.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I think too many Sharks fans are still stuck in a contending team mindset where every cent accounted for under the cap legitimately does matter.

More than that, it's just an unrealistic expectation of what cap space and draft picks are worth. Draft picks have steadily been increasing in value and space value has peaked.

Plus, remember that for all his positive qualities, Broberg has proven that he's not going to be an impact player. A draft pick hasn't proven it yet.

FWIW, your breakdown of Broberg was fantastic. The comparisons to Bordeleau and Mukhamadullin show how the endowment effect (and the opposite) has taken hold. I will also add, the fact that Edmonton appears very reluctant to let Broberg go (not letting him talk to teams) makes me think that they also believe he has a higher potential and don't want him realizing that at a competitor.

 

[Barrie22]

Again, Vlasic’s contract is buyout proof due to the signing bonuses in the final 2 years. Campbell has no more bonuses due to him. Vlasic also has a bigger cap hit by 2M/yr, is 5 years older, essentially has no chance of bouncing back to being worth even 25% of his contract while Campbell easily could, etc. They’re not comparable at all.

Campbell has and never will be a 5 million dollar goalie. He has never even been a 3 million dollar goalie at the nhl.

Buying out vlasic would be a lot better then buying out Campbell.

 

[one2gamble]

Again, Vlasic’s contract is buyout proof due to the signing bonuses in the final 2 years. Campbell has no more bonuses due to him. Vlasic also has a bigger cap hit by 2M/yr, is 5 years older, essentially has no chance of bouncing back to being worth even 25% of his contract while Campbell easily could, etc. They’re not comparable at all.

Campbell was trash in the ahl.....it's going to take more than an underperforming former fist rounder to move him

 

[Gecklund]

Broberg is more valuable than an Oilers top 10 protected 1st. You're getting a guaranteed NHL player in Broberg, even if he never progresses beyond being a third pair defenseman. There's only about a 20-30% chance a late 1st makes it to 200 NHL games and less than a 1% chance they become a legit top of the lineup player. Broberg certainly has much higher odds than that. 2nd+Petrov is objectively more valuable than a 3rd.

Yes there's some remote chance the Oilers miss the playoffs, McDavid and Draisaitl demand and are granted trades and we end up with a top 5 pick in 2025. That should be factored into the analysis but it's so remote that it's not really worth considering IMO. More than likely the Oilers will have McDavid and Draisaitl for at least one more year after this one and will therefore bounce back and make the playoffs.

But a third pairing is literally nothing. We have signed like 4 of them since Grier has come on. I’ll take that 1% over the 0%.

 

[Hodge]

Campbell has and never will be a 5 million dollar goalie. He has never even been a 3 million dollar goalie at the nhl.

Buying out vlasic would be a lot better then buying out Campbell.

Wrong. Vlasic's buyout would be more expensive than Campbell's (since you can't buy out signing bonuses) despite having one fewer year remaining on his contract:



They're both currently unplayable but the difference is Campbell is 5 years younger and plays an unpredictable position where players swing from AHL to Vezina caliber on an annual basis. Vlasic is cooked, full stop.

Also, we need a backup goalie next year (and beyond) no matter what and will need to spend at least $2 million on that position. What's an extra 3 when we don't care about making the playoffs and are currently projected to have $37 million in cap space?

 

[Hodge]

But a third pairing is literally nothing. We have signed like 4 of them since Grier has come on. I’ll take that 1% over the 0%.

Broberg is 22 years old. You really think he's completely finished developing? It's certainly possible and wouldn't be the first time a player stops progressing at 22 but there's far greater than a 0% chance he will continue to improve. Meanwhile his floor is clearly a depth NHL defenseman while late 1st rounders are overwhelmingly likely to never carve out any sort of NHL career.

 

[Gecklund]

Broberg is 22 years old. You really think he's completely finished developing? It's certainly possible and wouldn't be the first time a player stops progressing at 22 but there's far greater than a 0% chance he will continue to improve. Meanwhile his floor is clearly a depth NHL defenseman while late 1st rounders are overwhelmingly likely to never carve out any sort of NHL career.

Broberg has not shown anything in the NHL. It’s like Mueller.

 

[Hodge]

Broberg has not shown anything in the NHL. It’s like Mueller.

Mueller wasn't even great in junior hockey. Broberg has put up very good seasons in both the SHL and AHL. I understand they're both big defensemen with plus skating but the comparisons in terms of their actual track record at Broberg's age end there.

 

[Kcoyote3]

Bordeleau is 22 in like a week and is arguably farther from the NHL than he was 2 years ago. Even if he makes it at this point it will certainly be as a winger and not a center. I still wouldn’t even bet on that.

By games played and usage Lundkvist is the clear #6 defenseman on the best team in the Central. If you don’t understand how that’s significantly more valuable than a small one dimensional winger who can’t make one of the worst teams in recent NHL history, you can’t be helped.

Broberg is 22 years old. You really think he's completely finished developing? It's certainly possible and wouldn't be the first time a player stops progressing at 22 but there's far greater than a 0% chance he will continue to improve. Meanwhile his floor is clearly a depth NHL defenseman while late 1st rounders are overwhelmingly likely to never carve out any sort of NHL career.

 

[TheBeard]

I was just coming to post that hilarity

 

[Hodge]

@Kcoyote3 I’ve never said Bordeleau will not improve at all but he’s starting from a much lower baseline than Broberg. Bordeleau is clearly not NHL caliber right now so another 1-2 years of development may not be enough to get him there. Broberg has already demonstrated he’s a passable third pairing option so even if another 1-2 years of development doesn’t get him to another level, you still have something there.

Beyond that, even if Bordeleau progresses while Broberg does not, huge defensemen who can skate are inherently rarer and more valuable than small soft one dimensional wingers. The latter are a dime a dozen. We can already safely conclude Bordeleau will never be Clayton Keller.

 

[LadyStanley]

 

[OrrNumber4]

Agreed with @Hodge; he shouldn't have to spell out the obvious point.

I think it's fairly clear that Bordeleau lacks the offensive talent to be a top-6 guy. The question is, can he improve on the other parts of his game and become a rich man's Ryan Carpenter?

Now, I think it's fairly clear that Broberg lacks the offensive talent to be a top-pairing guy. But with his physical tools and hockey IQ, there's a path for him to parlay his offensive game (he showed flashes in the AHL) into being a Jason Demers-type, or his defensive game into being a Justin Braun-type. But, even if he just shows up his defensive game a little bit, he's a bottom-pairing guy, no question.

 

[tiburon12]

I've watched a lot of Oilers games in 2023 and I don't see anything special in Broberg. BUT, I wonder if EDM's unique environment plays a role. That said, he can't out perform Ceci, who admittedly is playing better than he did in TOR, but still is Cody Ceci.