Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[weastern bias]

The Sharks won’t trade for Dobson at the deadline. Their best chance of acquiring him is actually with an offer sheet. It has to be only 5 years (if you don’t know why read up on the CBA) $9.1 million is the highest amount for a 1st, 2nd, 3rd offer sheet. The Sharks would need to get their 3rd back.

Just shows GMs need to start taking care of their RFA’s. The offer sheet compensation is much lower than the proposals being floated around.

I think at that cap hit it's much more likely NYI just re-signs him, he's worth it

But if he really is available and he signs that offersheet you do it in a heartbeat, free agency opens after the draft so it would be the 2026 1st round pick, which is still risky, but you trade that plus a 2nd and a 3rd for a 25 year old Norris caliber #1 RHD every day of the week, and we would still have Celebrini, Smith, the 2025 1st (most likely a top 5 pick) and all the rest of our prospect pool a year older and more mature, Dobson would be a huge accelerant for the following year's team

 

[Sendhelplease]

Dobson is not going to be available, but if he is literally every asset in the organization should be on the table outside of Celebrini, Smith and our 2025 1st

Dickinson you also do everything to protect, but he shouldn't be the backbreaker that prevents making a trade for a player that great

I'd gladly trade VGK 1st + Eklund + Mukhamadullin for him, he's that special, and he fills our single biggest organizational need

Why would Smith be off the table for Dobson? I think if we can acquire a #1 RHD Smith should be available.

 

[TheBeard]

Why would Smith be off the table for Dobson? I think if we can acquire a #1 RHD Smith should be available.

I absolutely would not trade Smith for Dobson. You have the potential of having your top two centers for the next 15 years.

I feel like the Vegas 1st + a few sweeteners is more than enough

Vegas 1st plus Musty.

 

[Sendhelplease]

I absolutely would not trade Smith for Dobson. You have the potential of having your top two centers for the next 15 years.


Vegas 1st plus Musty.

If you trade Smith for Dobson you have your #1 D for the next ten years and a number one D man is more valuable than a #2 center.

 

[weastern bias]

Why would Smith be off the table for Dobson? I think if we can acquire a #1 RHD Smith should be available.

In a better developed prospect pool he wouldn't be off the table, but we only have 2 potential top line players in our whole pipeline so he isn't currently expendable under any reasonable circumstances

Celebrini can literally be Sidney Crosby and he's not getting things done by himself, even Crosby only won cups with a hall of famer on the 2nd line (Malkin) and a legit 1st liner on the 3rd line (Staal/Kessel), we can upgrade 2nd tier prospects but right now our blue-chippers are simply untouchable because we need more than one foundational piece to emerge from our prospect pool to turn things around and become truly competitive

We're coming off the worst 82 game point total in the cap era and even our offseason improvements are likely to bump us up to "still dead-last, but at least NHL caliber", we can't be selling real futures right now because the present doesn't exist

 

[Sendhelplease]

In a better developed prospect pool he wouldn't be off the table, but we only have 2 potential top line players in our whole pipeline so he isn't currently expendable under any reasonable circumstances

Celebrini can literally be Sidney Crosby and he's not getting things done by himself, even Crosby only won cups with a hall of famer on the 2nd line (Malkin) and a legit 1st liner on the 3rd line (Staal/Kessel), we can upgrade 2nd tier prospects but right now our blue-chippers are simply untouchable because we need more than one foundational piece to emerge from our prospect pool to turn things around and become truly competitive

We're coming off the worst 82 game point total in the cap era and even our offseason improvements are likely to bump us up to "still dead-last, but at least NHL caliber", we can't be selling real futures right now because the present doesn't exist

I see your point about needing to build up the prospect pool first. I would see trading Smith for Dobson as exchanging one potential foundational piece for a sure thing one in Dobson but I now understand your refusal to trade Smith. Still if a young #1 RHD is available like Dobson or Sieder I think we should trade Smith for that player.

 

[weastern bias]

I see your point about needing to build up the prospect pool first. I would see trading Smith for Dobson as exchanging one potential foundational piece for a sure thing one in Dobson but I now understand your refusal to trade Smith. Still if a young #1 RHD is available like Dobson or Sieder I think we should trade Smith for that player.

Dobson is awesome, he's definitely a foundational piece, we just unfortunately aren't far enough along in the rebuild to trade out foundational pieces in exchange for other ones, especially if they're older

Maybe things are different if we win the lottery again next year, but at this point I'm only really interested in upgrading on secondary young pieces (Eklund, Musty, Mukhamadullin, much more begrudgingly Dickinson (would need to be a haul))

It needs to be foundational pieces in only, none out, not just yet, we're at the bottom of the tank right now, selling futures can be devastating to the rebuild if we're not careful

 

[TheBeard]

If you trade Smith for Dobson you have your #1 D for the next ten years and a number one D man is more valuable than a #2 center.

Next 5 years. He'll be turning 25 midseason. Will just turned 19.

 

[sharski]

Nope

Keep buying low and hope to sell high at TDL, rinse, repeat until they patch that sploit

 

[Bizz]

If you trade Smith for Dobson you have your #1 D for the next ten years and a number one D man is more valuable than a #2 center.

I'd only trade Smith for Dobson after it came to a point where we had a legitimate shot at landing McKenna in 2 years.

 

[OrrNumber4]

A Dobson acquisition for non-roster assets would dramatically improve the team. You'd be trading a top-3 pick for a pick that's probably around 6-8.

A right-handed puck-moving defenseman is the biggest hole on the roster, and filling it with Dobson is like holding tryouts for a drummer and getting Ringo Starr.

 

[TheBigDrunkPanda]

Sharks also don’t have a stud goalie prospect either or any winger depth, honestly centers and D depth is pretty good right now, sure no right shit d but Grier could probably move one of his lefties for a righty

 

[OrrNumber4]

Sharks also don’t have a any winger depth

Just convert the centers to wing!

, honestly centers and D depth is pretty good right now, sure no right shit d but Grier could probably move one of his lefties for a righty

Philosophy question: If you could guarantee a future where Dickinson developed into a Norris-level guy but Will Smith flames out, do you do it.

 

[sampler]

Just convert the centers to wing!

Philosophy question: If you could guarantee a future where Dickinson developed into a Norris-level guy but Will Smith flames out, do you do it.

Yes! You give me a Norris D and I’m just fine with smith evaporating.

Norris D are, arguably, the most prime pieces in the league. Yes please!

Also, the Sharks have so incredibly many good forwards in the system that while losing smith would suck big time, they’d still have Celly, bystedt, edstrom, haltunnen, Chernyshov, Eklund, Zetterlund… not to mention cardwell, gushkin, and the more outside chance guys on Wetsch, Lund, Svoboda, rimashevsky, etc.

Losing smith would hurt for sure, and he has big time potential, but if you told me the sharks would get a Norris guy, I’d say absolutely!

 

[OrrNumber4]

Yes! You give me a Norris D and I’m just fine with smith evaporating.

Norris D are, arguably, the most prime pieces in the league. Yes please!

Also, the Sharks have so incredibly many good forwards in the system that while losing smith would suck big time, they’d still have Celly, bystedt, edstrom, haltunnen, Chernyshov, Eklund, Zetterlund… not to mention cardwell, gushkin, and the more outside chance guys on Wetsch, Lund, Svoboda, rimashevsky, etc.

Losing smith would hurt for sure, and he has big time potential, but if you told me the sharks would get a Norris guy, I’d say absolutely!

Let me test those limits. Say now, in addition to Smith busting, Musty, Edstrom, Chernyshov, and Bystedt all flame out. Still yes? Remember that if you say no, Dickinson could still become a superstar...

 

[one2gamble]

Let me test those limits. Say now, in addition to Smith busting, Musty, Edstrom, Chernyshov, and Bystedt all flame out. Still yes? Remember that if you say no, Dickinson could still become a superstar...

I'll say no

 

[sampler]

I'll say no

I ageee with no, though your caveat is interesting. If I say not, then Dickinson flames out would be better.

That package is nearly everyone except Celly. That’s like 5 1st rounders all flaming out. The sharks do need forwards too so no.

 

[Hodge]

Why would Dobson return more than Sergachev?

Our equivalent of what Utah traded for Serge would be something like Ferraro, Musty, 2nd, 7th.

 

[Cas]

Just convert the centers to wing!

Philosophy question: If you could guarantee a future where Dickinson developed into a Norris-level guy but Will Smith flames out, do you do it.

I suppose this depends on the exact parameters of "developed into a Norris-level guy," but if we're at least modestly generous, I would trade any single prospect in our entire pool for that outcome, including Celebrini.

What you're talking about is a guarantee - that would be ludicrously valuable asset to have. We are pretty confident Celebrini is going to be a very good player, but it's more than plausible that he turns into a rather disappointing player, or even just outright busts. For a prospect to be absolutely, 100% guaranteed to turn into an exceptional, top-of-their-position player means that you don't even need to have a backup plan for them - there is no world where Dickinson busts or disappoints. You stick him at #1LD and leave him there.

Basically, would you trade the uncertainty and risk that Celebrini has right now, however low it may be, for a 100% guaranteed copy of Victor Hedman's career out of Dickinson, without any risk whatsoever? I would - you just solved a key position for the next decade, decade and a half.

That's the problem with hypotheticals, though - they're unrealistic.

 

[sampler]

The other question is timeline. Like if he’s a Norris 19 yo perennially on elc/rfa salary levels, than I might deal all five!!

If he becomes a Norris caliber player at age 28, then it’s a different animal.

The key for prospects is that you get them at a discount for at least 7 years and in a cap world, that’s crucial. From 27+, it’s a more a free market.

 

[spintops]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1825367902087729280

Welp

 

[Juxtaposer]

Why would Dobson return more than Sergachev?

Our equivalent of what Utah traded for Serge would be something like Ferraro, Musty, 2nd, 7th.

Because he's way younger, significantly better, right-handed, and doesn't have Sergachev's injury history...

 

[Hodge]

Because he's way younger, significantly better, right-handed, and doesn't have Sergachev's injury history...

He's 1.5 years younger than Sergachev so if we trade for him next offseason he'll be like 6 months younger than Sergachev at the time of the respective trades.

Significantly better based on what? Injury history is fair but Sergachev was signed long term at a great number while Dobson is an unsigned RFA who has the arb case to get the Dahlin contract.

 

[Juxtaposer]

He's 1.5 years younger than Sergachev so if we trade for him next offseason he'll be like 6 months younger than Sergachev at the time of the respective trades.

Significantly better based on what? Injury history is fair but Sergachev was signed long term at a great number while Dobson is an unsigned RFA who has the arb case to get the Dahlin contract.

Thought Sergachev was a 2014 draftee, not at 2016 draftee, which is mea culpa, but the rest of my points stand. And Dobson is the clear #1D on his team, while I see Sergachev as a #3.

Dobson has a case to get >$9M because that's the caliber of player he is, plus the righty premium.

 

[OrrNumber4]

OK, let me give more specifics to the hypothetical.

You get a guarantee that Dickinson, barring any freak injuries, will be a Norris-quality defenseman by age 25 and that he'll make the NHL in his D+2 season. He's not going to be a headache and would be as amenable to staying in SJ as you'd expect...but management wouldn't know about this guarantee meaning they could still play the contract game terribly.

So, what would you be willing to "give" in exchange for that above guarantee?

I don't think I'd give Celebrini, just because his profile, already, is excellent. But, I'd be willing to let Musty, Chernyshov, and Smith bust to get that guarantee. Those are holes you can plug later.