Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[pappaf2]

What about a Bords & one of Bystedt/Edstrom?

 

[Sendhelplease]

I am also reluctant to trade for Askarov because established goalies are always available via and trade and rarely cost as much as they were expected to. This year alone Ullmark was traded for a late first and the Bruins took on the Korpisalo contract while Markstrom was traded for a depth defensemen and what is expected to be a late 2025 first round pick. We should hold onto our prospects unless a star young RHD is available and continue to accumulate assets and build up the team. Once our top prospects (hopefully) establish themselves we should go and acquire a good established goalie like Ullmark and Markstrom in exchange for our depth pieces like NJ did.

 

[matt trick]

Our 2nd (likely 33-37) also isn't too far off a late 1st. It'd be great to keep Bystedt and Edstrom, but I'd happily offer any of those three assets. SJ 2nd+Edm 3rd+Bordeleau.

Carolina could offer their first, don't see them offering Nadeau though.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I am also reluctant to trade for Askarov because established goalies are always available via and trade and rarely cost as much as they were expected to. This year alone Ullmark was traded for a late first and the Bruins took on the Korpisalo contract while Markstrom was traded for a depth defensemen and what is expected to be a late 2025 first round pick. We should hold onto our prospects unless a star young RHD is available and continue to accumulate assets and build up the team. Once our top prospects (hopefully) establish themselves we should go and acquire a good established goalie like Ullmark and Markstrom in exchange for our depth pieces like NJ did.

Decent goaltending is easy to acquire, but where Askarov is interesting is that he has legit star potential.

From my perspective, there are like five great goaltenders in the NHL at any given time (I'd say right now it's Shesterkin, Hellebyuk, Swayman, Saros, and Vasilevsky), 15 decent goaltenders, and then a bunch of mediocrity. Goaltender performance fluctuates more year to year than skaters do, but the genuinely elite goaltenders are game-changers.

If one believes that Askarov is going to be a star goaltender, then you trade for him. If you believe he's going to be an average NHL starter, then you don't. I am not qualified to make that call because I know nothing about scouting goaltenders, but folks in the industry seem to think that Askarov does have that star potential.

 

[matt trick]

I do think it's a year too early to go after Askarov, as we've got a terrible situation for a goalie. This year's draft looks strong in goal, but they're going to be years away.

While it's early, he's pretty unique. 24/25 is usually when goalies start to come into the league, Askarov just turned 22. He's gotten coaching from probably the top goalie coach in the world in Mitch Korn. 6'3, pretty consistently good stats. If he has the mental game to handle playing behind a shit team, it could be a great pickup. I wonder if SJ interviewed him in the 2020 draft (or perhaps more importantly if Grier or Morehouse did). Again, I'd prefer for him to develop one more year, let us grab some top 4 d-men, but if he plays 35 games behind a more structured, deeper NHL defense, it may not be too bad. Also, give Nabby a shot with an actually talented guy, and a Russian too boot?

On Kegan and Sheng's SJhockeyNow podcast, Joe Will's comments about 'wanting a #3 goalie who is young' made me think, they're definitely going to be in on Askarov.

 

[matt trick]

Think Jux is spot on. Not sure if the Sharks have the ability to properly predict (or develop) Askarov's ceiling, but it's a shot worth taking, and with his age it could solve that problem for 8-10 years. Drafting a 1st round goalie this year is probably a 30% of starting to solve that problem in 6-8 years. I'd pay Bystedt or Edstrom to find out whether Askarov is a star.

One other thing, due to his youth, you could consider signing him to a long-term RFA deal after this year at overinflated cap hit for now say 6*$4M, and if it doesn't work out the buyout would be 1/3rd of the $4*4M in two years (like $667k for 8 years*)

*Is my math mathing?

 

[Juxtaposer]

I do think it's a year too early to go after Askarov, as we've got a terrible situation for a goalie. This year's draft looks strong in goal, but

However, he's pretty unique. 24/25 is usually when goalies start to come into the league, Askarov just turned 22. He's gotten coaching from probably the top goalie coach in the world in Mitch Korn. 6'3, pretty consistently good stats. If he has the mental game to handle playing behind a shit team, it could be a great pickup. I wonder if SJ interviewed him in the 2020 draft (or perhaps more importantly if Grier or Morehouse did). Again, I'd prefer for him to develop one more year, let us grab some top 4 d-men, but if he plays 35 games behind a more structured, deeper NHL defense, it may not be too bad. Also, give Nabby a shot with an actually talented guy, and a Russian too boot?

On Kegan and Sheng's SJhockeyNow podcast, Joe Will's comments about 'wanting a #3 goalie who is young' made me think, they're definitely going to be in on Askarov.

I think it would be a bad idea to put Askarov behind this Sharks team purely because he's an emotional guy and does let that affect his game. Frankly, it's something I kinda like about him. You want a guy who is fiery and passionate and gets up for big occasions. But playing behind the Sharks D this season... that could break anyone.

I have no proof for this, but I do think Askarov would report to the Cuda. It doesn't seem to me that it's so much about Askarov not wanting to spend any time in the AHL as much as it is that he wants to be somewhere with a clear path to being the #1G. Nashville with Saros locked in until the end of time is one of the few teams without one.

I think that if you told Askarov, "come in and earn the backup spot. But if not, Blackwood and Vanecek are both injury prone and you'll definitely get some NHL games this season and the inside track to being the starter next season as Blackwood and Vanacek are both UFAs.", he'd be amenable. But I'm not Grier, and I would expect him to actually chat with Askarov's agent (who coincidentally is the same agent as Chernyshov) to ensure that Askarov would report given that situation.

 

[Patty Ice]

William Eklund for Askarov and Tomasino.

Draft Viktor Eklund with the Vegas pick so there is still an Eklund in house.

Have fun

 

[coooldude]

The more I read the Askarov thread on the main boards, the more I think we should be patient with this one.

He could bolt to KHL, he could flame out. We could definitely give him a clear path to NHL games and salary as soon as this year but it might really harm his development unless our "sorta better D" plus "sorta better F's" become greater than the sum of their parts and all of a sudden they're a "not half bad D" which I just don't think is likely.

We're so far away from a competitive window that it feels like getting a bit ahead of ourselves to give up a Bystedt/Edstrom prospect who might, in 7 years, be an excellent 3C or middle 6 wing. Goalie feels like a piece we can pick up.

It all comes down to what Jux said which is whether you believe a) Askarov is that dude who could be one of the top 5 elite goalies, b) you think we can develop him. There's a lot of risk in both. I'm no pro so I won't have a huge opinion on this one but it'll be another interesting storyline in the next 8 weeks.

 

[Patty Ice]

I have no proof for this, but I do think Askarov would report to the Cuda. It doesn't seem to me that it's so much about Askarov not wanting to spend any time in the AHL as much as it is that he wants to be somewhere with a clear path to being the #1G. Nashville with Saros locked in until the end of time is one of the few teams without one.

It appears to be a clear pathway and a clash of personalities (Askarov and Trotz). Grier would more likely show him the light at the end of the tunnel.

 

[ChompChomp]

What about a Bords & one of Bystedt/Edstrom?

I'd do that. Askarov is legit and first round goalies don't become available too often, let alone ones that are worth it. Even the chance that we would be getting our own version of Otter (another 1st round goalie) is worth Bords and Bystedt/Edstrom. Maybe even more in a vacuum, but probably right there since he wants out.

 

[TheBeard]

Highly touted first round goaltenders rarely come around. I see what Dallas got from Jake and Tampa from Vasi. I remember Montreal getting hammered for drafting price at 5. How often do first round goaltenders not become Vezina candidates?

 

[ChompChomp]

Highly touted first round goaltenders rarely come around. I see what Dallas got from Jake and Tampa from Vasi. I remember Montreal getting hammered for drafting price at 5. How often do first round goaltenders not become Vezina candidates?

There isn't a big enough sample size to answer your question but in recent (2010 or later) memory, Malcolm Subban and Ilya Samsonov come to mind as 1st round goalies who are not studs.

And Jack Campbell and Mark Visentin. Visentin might be the only complete bust, but Campbell isn't good either.

 

[Alaskanice]

Highly touted first round goaltenders rarely come around. I see what Dallas got from Jake and Tampa from Vasi. I remember Montreal getting hammered for drafting price at 5. How often do first round goaltenders not become Vezina candidates?

This

 

[TheBeard]

There isn't a big enough sample size to answer your question but in recent (2010 or later) memory, Malcolm Subban and Ilya Samsonov come to mind as 1st round goalies who are not studs.

And Jack Campbell and Mark Visentin. Visentin might be the only complete bust, but Campbell isn't good either.

So basically the rate of a first round goalie being at least a serviceable NHLer is higher than any other position.

 

[ChompChomp]

So basically the rate of a first round goalie being at least a serviceable NHLer is higher than any other position.

Pretty much. If you want to frame it as, his floor is Samsonov, and his ceiling is Vasi, you definitely do a Bords + one Bystedt/Edstrom trade.

 

[coooldude]

How often do first round goaltenders not become Vezina candidates?

This was a good question so I did a quick scan since 2000.

2000 - DiPietro 1 (woof)
2001 - Pascal Leclaire 8, Dan Blackburn 10, Jason Bacashihua 26, Adam Munro 29 (woof)
2002 - Kari Lehtonen 2 (never higher than 8th Vezina), Cam Ward 25 (7th in Vezina but Conn Smythe), Hannu Toivonen 29
2003 - Flower 1
2004 - Al Montoya 6, Dubnyk 14, Marek Schwarz 17, Cory Schneider 26,
2005 - Price 5, Rask 21,
2006 - Jonathan Bernier 11, Riku Helenius 15, Varlamov 23, Leland Irving 26,
2007 -
2008 - Chet Pickard 18, Tom McCollum 30
2009 -
2010 - Jack Campbell 11, Mark Visentin 27
2011 -
2012 - Vaselivskiy 19, Malcolm Subban 24,
2013 -
2014 -
2015 - Ilya Samsonov 22,
2016 -
2017 - Oettinger 26
2018 -
2019 - Spencer Knight 13,
2020 - Askarov 11,
2021 - Cossa 15, Wallstedt 20,
2022 -
2023 -
2024 -

So the rough count is something like 7 who were solidly top 5 (maybe you argue Varlamov, Samsonov, Bernier, Schneider had good spikes). Out of 31 drafted.

So yeah not great, kind of like general hockey drafting. But not at all a guarantee.

Edit: Wallstedt looks to be progressing nicely. Cossa, Knight -- no idea.

 

[ChompChomp]

This was a good question so I did a quick scan since 2000.

2000 - DiPietro 1 (woof)
2001 - Pascal Leclaire 8, Dan Blackburn 10, Jason Bacashihua 26, Adam Munro 29 (woof)
2002 - Kari Lehtonen 2 (never higher than 8th Vezina), Cam Ward 25 (7th in Vezina but Conn Smythe), Hannu Toivonen 29
2003 - Flower 1
2004 - Al Montoya 6, Dubnyk 14, Marek Schwarz 17, Cory Schneider 26,
2005 - Price 5, Rask 21,
2006 - Jonathan Bernier 11, Riku Helenius 15, Varlamov 23, Leland Irving 26,
2007 -
2008 - Chet Pickard 18, Tom McCollum 30
2009 -
2010 - Jack Campbell 11, Mark Visentin 27
2011 -
2012 - Vaselivskiy 19, Malcolm Subban 24,
2013 -
2014 -
2015 - Ilya Samsonov 22,
2016 -
2017 - Oettinger 26
2018 -
2019 - Spencer Knight 13,
2020 - Askarov 11,
2021 - Cossa 15, Wallstedt 20,
2022 -
2023 -
2024 -

So the rough count is something like 7 who were solidly top 5 (maybe you argue Varlamov, Samsonov, Bernier, Schneider had good spikes). Out of 31 drafted.

So yeah not great, kind of like general hockey drafting.

Why no "woof" by Visentin? Dude only has one NHL game to his name.

 

[TheBeard]

This was a good question so I did a quick scan since 2000.

2000 - DiPietro 1 (woof)
2001 - Pascal Leclaire 8, Dan Blackburn 10, Jason Bacashihua 26, Adam Munro 29 (woof)
2002 - Kari Lehtonen 2 (never higher than 8th Vezina), Cam Ward 25 (7th in Vezina but Conn Smythe), Hannu Toivonen 29
2003 - Flower 1
2004 - Al Montoya 6, Dubnyk 14, Marek Schwarz 17, Cory Schneider 26,
2005 - Price 5, Rask 21,
2006 - Jonathan Bernier 11, Riku Helenius 15, Varlamov 23, Leland Irving 26,
2007 -
2008 - Chet Pickard 18, Tom McCollum 30
2009 -
2010 - Jack Campbell 11, Mark Visentin 27
2011 -
2012 - Vaselivskiy 19, Malcolm Subban 24,
2013 -
2014 -
2015 - Ilya Samsonov 22,
2016 -
2017 - Oettinger 26
2018 -
2019 - Spencer Knight 13,
2020 - Askarov 11,
2021 - Cossa 15, Wallstedt 20,
2022 -
2023 -
2024 -

So the rough count is something like 7 who were solidly top 5 (maybe you argue Varlamov, Samsonov, Bernier, Schneider had good spikes). Out of 31 drafted.

So yeah not great, kind of like general hockey drafting.

I think your percentage is skewered by the fact 3 of those players haven’t played (or barely played) in the NHL, Knight was on his way and still may be. Dipietro was turning into a real solid 1 but the back issues plagued him.

 

[coooldude]

Why no "woof" by Visentin? Dude only has one NHL game to his name.

There might be other "woofs" in there, I just "woof"'d DiPietro and the next class who had 4 names I've never heard of or barely remember.

I think your percentage is skewered by the fact 3 of those players haven’t played (or barely played) in the NHL, Knight was on his way and still may be. Dipietro was turning into a real solid 1 but the back issues plagued him.

I mean, I didn't do any very precise numbers. My point is that whether it's 7 or 10 or 15, out of 31, you're not getting a guarantee in Askarov.

 

[Sendhelplease]

I am not sure if this is backed up by any actual numbers but it seems like a lot of the top goalies tend to be mid to late round picks who develop overseas and then teams get lucky and they turn into stars. The most clear example of this in my mind is Shesterkin.

 

[TheBeard]

There might be other "woofs" in there, I just "woof"'d DiPietro and the next class who had 4 names I've never heard of or barely remember.

I mean, I didn't do any very precise numbers. My point is that whether it's 7 or 10 or 15, out of 31, you're not getting a guarantee in Askarov.

You’re not getting a guarantee out of any player, but it’s rare a player like Askarov becomes available for reasons other than he’s not progressing.

I am not sure if this is backed up by any actual numbers but it seems like a lot of the top goalies tend to be mid to late round picks who develop overseas and then teams get lucky and they turn into stars. The most clear example of this in my mind is Shesterkin.

For every shesterkin there’s a thousand Melnichucks and Korenars.

 

[coooldude]

You’re not getting a guarantee out of any player, but it’s rare a player like Askarov becomes available for reasons other than he’s not progressing.

For sure, it's exciting. But also -- why didn't Nashville foresee this? It's not like Trotz is an idiot, and they've been excellent at developing goalies. As someone on the main boards thread said, "what does Trotz know that we don't?"

I'm only saying that there is risk enough with this player, and a long enough runway until we're competitive, that I'm not sure it's worth a lot of assets.

 

[Sendhelplease]

You’re not getting a guarantee out of any player, but it’s rare a player like Askarov becomes available for reasons other than he’s not progressing.


For every shesterkin there’s a thousand Melnichucks and Korenars.

Very true about the thousands of Korenars and Melnichucks. I just prefer the strategy of selecting lots of late round goalie lottery picks to selecting a goalie earlier in the draft. But considering the state of the Sharks goaltending system they should probably adopt a different strategy.

 

[TheBeard]

For sure, it's exciting. But also -- why didn't Nashville foresee this? It's not like Trotz is an idiot, and they've been excellent at developing goalies. As someone on the main boards thread said, "what does Trotz know that we don't?"

I'm only saying that there is risk enough with this player, and a long enough runway until we're competitive, that I'm not sure it's worth a lot of assets.

I think for trotz it was a win-now case of not wanting to wait for Askarov to develop into Saros when he already had a Saros. He wasn’t making those big free agent splashes for 2-3 years down the road.

Very true about the thousands of Korenars and Melnichucks. I just prefer the strategy of selecting lots of late round goalie lottery picks to selecting a goalie earlier in the draft. But considering the state of the Sharks goaltending system they should probably adopt a different strategy.

Goalies take longer to develop. Nothing news-breaking there. Why go that route when you can bring in a high-pedigree guy already developed by a pretty good goalie-friendly system in Nashville? The team desperately needs goalie prospects and Joe Will coming out claiming the goalie he picked up in the mid 7th was their second ranked goalie in the entire draft doesn’t exactly inspire me.