2023-24 #2: Phantoms (AHL), Reading Royals (ECHL), NCAA, Jrs., Int'l, etc.

[mr figgles]

If you pay for the site are there no adds at all?

And do others have constant refreshing?

Use an ad blocker. The site is unusable without one.

 

[Jettany]

Bro Barzal is a PPG player

Yep. Barzal around a 20/50 guy.

 

[usahockey22flyers]

I think Jett can be a Ryan Kesler type center. Pain in the butt to play against, does all the little things (he was blocking shots at development camp all week), and still contribute 25+35 each year. Offensively gifted, but nothing too top end.

If he ends up in that realm, I'm honestly happy.

 

[Magua]

Please remember what you saw was against a bunch of mediocre prospects.

I watched 5 OHL games post-draft, including 2 playoff games, and none of these superstar dynamic qualities showed up in a single one. But they did in a July intra-prospect scrimmage against a lot of bad prospects. It makes you think.

 

[usahockey22flyers]

I watched 5 OHL games post-draft, including 2 playoff games, and none of these superstar dynamic qualities showed up in a single one. But they did in a July intra-prospect scrimmage against a lot of bad prospects. It makes you think.

I’m a Niagara ice dogs fan, Jett was very good in the games I saw vs Guelph. Also saw that U18 tourny, he was solid then too.

I don’t see high end, I see Kesler level.

 

[Magua]

I don’t see high end, I see Kesler level.

The Ryan Kesler who peaked as a top 5 goal scoring, top 15 point getting, Selke winning center pre-injuries?

https://x.com/i/web/status/1428122595375947779

If we're saying that's a more realistic upside, that's high-end. I remain skeptical about Luchanko's skill level. I had Robert Thomas ranked 10th in his class for perspective. As I've said, he's a good player that should be of real use. But the skating (his top end does pop) really didn't play as much as I hoped on-puck. He wasn't much of a transition weapon; it showed itself more in checking/recovery. He had some trouble handling pucks at top speed, and he lost it quite a lot (often self-bobbling) through sticks and traffic, where high end guys operate.

 

[usahockey22flyers]

The Ryan Kesler who peaked as a top 5 goal scoring, top 15 point getting, Selke winning center pre-injuries?

https://x.com/i/web/status/1428122595375947779

If we're saying that's a more realistic upside, that's high-end. I remain skeptical about Luchanko's skill level. I had Robert Thomas ranked 10th in his class for perspective. As I've said, he's a good player that should be of real use. But the skating (his top end does pop) really didn't play as much as I hoped on-puck. He wasn't much of a transition weapon; it showed itself more in checking/recovery. He had some trouble handling pucks at top speed, and he lost it quite a lot (often self-bobbling) through sticks and traffic, where high end guys operate.

Tbh I think you are giving Ryan Kesler's offense a little more credit than it probably deserves. He exploded one time with 40, but never hit 30 besides that. Super big anomaly. Two years with 70 plus points but never a point per game I'm probably underrating Kesler's defense. He was damn impressive. Loved him on the 2010 Olympics team.

I could really see Jett as a 25 goal scorer, 60/70 point guy, with a plus 200 foot game. Maybe a little better on the offensive side than Ryan, but worse in the dzone.

 

[TheKingPin]

The Ryan Kesler who peaked as a top 5 goal scoring, top 15 point getting, Selke winning center pre-injuries?

https://x.com/i/web/status/1428122595375947779

If we're saying that's a more realistic upside, that's high-end. I remain skeptical about Luchanko's skill level. I had Robert Thomas ranked 10th in his class for perspective. As I've said, he's a good player that should be of real use. But the skating (his top end does pop) really didn't play as much as I hoped on-puck. He wasn't much of a transition weapon; it showed itself more in checking/recovery. He had some trouble handling pucks at top speed, and he lost it quite a lot (often self-bobbling) through sticks and traffic, where high end guys operate.

He does seem to focus a lot on defense which obviously can be very good. The exciting thing there is he can create turnovers and spring the breaking guy back the other way. I see a lot of potential there with Michkov or similar type player if we get more. Likely if he did great things on offense at his high speed he would be pretty highly rated. Flahr commented that he wants him to be less defensive this year to try and focus on putting up more points. I’m sure they see this as a must for optics alone.

I think he can get to 70pts a game while being very reliable on defense. Especially when playing with a guy like Michkov.
That’s a great 2C.

 

[sauce88]

I feel like if he's going to be a transition threat he needs to find a way to shorten that stick, it's distractingly too large. I can't fathom stick handling with a stick that can double as an oar for Olympic rowing.

 

[TheKingPin]

For Jett vs Buium I think we just have to wait. Neither are going pro next year. All Jett has to do it get better this year to start making this pick make sense. Given his age, an improvement in production would mean higher than his expected draft position to closer to 13. Not sure he will prove more value able than Buium.

 

[VladDrag]

Tbh I think you are giving Ryan Kesler's offense a little more credit than it probably deserves. He exploded one time with 40, but never hit 30 besides that. Super big anomaly. Two years with 70 plus points but never a point per game I'm probably underrating Kesler's defense. He was damn impressive. Loved him on the 2010 Olympics team.

I could really see Jett as a 25 goal scorer, 60/70 point guy, with a plus 200 foot game. Maybe a little better on the offensive side than Ryan, but worse in the dzone.

Ryan Kessler from 2009-2011, ranked in the 93 percentile for offensive over that time. Much more effective offensive player than defensive player. Wonderful pp guy, terrible pk guy.

 

[usahockey22flyers]

View attachment 893500

Ryan Kessler from 2009-2011, ranked in the 93 percentile for offensive over that time. Much more effective offensive player than defensive player. Wonderful pp guy, terrible pk guy.

And how about the rest of his career?

regardless, besides the 40 goals, all of this is obtainable

 

[VladDrag]

And how about the rest of his career?

regardless, besides the 40 goals, all of this is obtainable

He’s the same basic player through the best part of his career. He was mostly impactful thru offense.

When it comes to the larger part of the discussion re Luchanko’s projections, sure, I can see a possibility of him hitting 25/35/60 (personally I think if he hits 60p it’s going to be driven mostly by assists), but the chances of all of that coming are extremely low. I think if projecting him to a 60-70 point forward with plus defense were reasonable, at this stage, he would have went top 5-7.

 

[Random Forest]

The complication here will be opportunity and usage. If Luchanko plays with an elite offensive talent and gets PP1 time, it’s not terribly hard to envision a scenario where he actually produces big offensive numbers even if he’s not the primary driver. If he’s relegated to 2C and PP2 minutes, it’s harder to see that path.

Projecting a player’s max offensive output is always difficult for this reason. Plenty of guys in the top 50 in scoring this year (70+ points) only hit that mark because of opportunity. Brandon Hagel has been a 65+ point guy for two seasons now, and I doubt he cracks 45 on the Flyers.

Having a 100+ point player on your team goes a long, long way in maximizing the production of everyone else in your lineup. It can make a #3 defenseman look like a fringe #1. It can make a middle six C look like a 1C.

 

[Curufinwe]

Getting flashbacks to people comparing Jay O'Brien to Roenick.

 

[usahockey22flyers]

View attachment 893505
View attachment 893506
He’s the same basic player through the best part of his career. He was mostly impactful thru offense.

When it comes to the larger part of the discussion re Luchanko’s projections, sure, I can see a possibility of him hitting 25/35/60 (personally I think if he hits 60p it’s going to be driven mostly by assists), but the chances of all of that coming are extremely low. I think if projecting him to a 60-70 point forward with plus defense were reasonable, at this stage, he would have went top 5-7.

We shall see my friend. I have high hopes on this kid.

When I made my comparison, I really didn't have the high end 2011 Ryan Kesler in mind. More or less the consistent 20G 35A type version. (I'd be thrilled if this was the case)

 

[VladDrag]

We shall see my friend. I have high hopes on this kid.

When I made my comparison, I really didn't have the high end 2011 Ryan Kesler in mind. More or less the consistent 20G 35A type version. (I'd be thrilled if this was the case)

I agree that he's a player to watch, not a dud. He's not even particularly a bad pick at spot 13 in most drafts. I think the lack of elite puck skills will be his limiting factor in how good he is.

The issue I have with the pick is the absolute miss in taking a high-end skill guy in Buium. It's a hard one to swallow right now.

 

[Curufinwe]

I saw this comparison on Reddit. Wish I had thought of it myself:

Passing on a stud, PPG freshmen defenseman because we already have Emil Andrae in the minors.

Imagine Briere passing on Michkov last year because we already have Brink at RW.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Do you guys have any idea how much raw skill you need to process to be a 70 point guy barring any unforeseen changes in league scoring spikes? The kid was just a 70 point scorer in the OHL.

Hell a 70 point average would be one of the better outcomes for Michkov.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

The Ryan Kesler who peaked as a top 5 goal scoring, top 15 point getting, Selke winning center pre-injuries?

https://x.com/i/web/status/1428122595375947779

If we're saying that's a more realistic upside, that's high-end. I remain skeptical about Luchanko's skill level. I had Robert Thomas ranked 10th in his class for perspective. As I've said, he's a good player that should be of real use. But the skating (his top end does pop) really didn't play as much as I hoped on-puck. He wasn't much of a transition weapon; it showed itself more in checking/recovery. He had some trouble handling pucks at top speed, and he lost it quite a lot (often self-bobbling) through sticks and traffic, where high end guys operate.

It’s kind of important to note too that Kesler played a good chunk of his mid 20’s to early 30’s in some of the lowest scoring seasons in the modern era.

 

[BringBackHakstol]

It’s kind of important to note too that Kesler played a good chunk of his mid 20’s to early 30’s in some of the lowest scoring seasons in the modern era.

I was going to point this out too. 60 pts isn't quite what it was then.

 

[Random Forest]

Do you guys have any idea how much raw skill you need to process to be a 70 point guy barring any unforeseen changes in league scoring spikes? The kid was just a 70 point scorer in the OHL.

Hell a 70 point average would be one of the better outcomes for Michkov.

There’s also a huge, huge difference between a player who is reliably and consistently a 70 point player and a guy who peaks as 70 point player.

If Michkov is who we hope he is, say a 100 point player (which is obviously lofty in and of itself), then sure, we’ll probably see his less-skilled linemate get carried to a 70 point season a few times. Chris Kunitz and Brandon Hagel have been carried for rides to near-PPG seasons.

But that’s categorically different than a guy like Clayton Keller, or even Konecny, who’s able to do it on his own.

I could see a reasonably plausible scenario where Luchanko is a passenger style 70 point player. But he’s not gonna be the driver of that output unless he levels up big time.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

I was going to point this out too. 60 pts isn't quite what it was then.

Yeah he was practically done by the time scoring started inching closer to 3 goals a game. Obviously the last three seasons we’ve been at 3.10+ which is noticeably higher than even some of the last seasons Kesler played in.

 

[Magua]

Do you guys have any idea how much raw skill you need to process to be a 70 point guy barring any unforeseen changes in league scoring spikes?

No. A good rule of thumb is to subtract 20 points or 1 line in the depth chart anytime the word "ceiling" comes up in general discussion. Just look at former Flyers prospects who were absolutely more purely skilled than Luchanko.

Hell a 70 point average would be one of the better outcomes for Michkov.

Someone called Michkov a better Kucherov in his thread. Good luck getting this point across.

 

[usahockey22flyers]

Do you guys have any idea how much raw skill you need to process to be a 70 point guy barring any unforeseen changes in league scoring spikes? The kid was just a 70 point scorer in the OHL.

Hell a 70 point average would be one of the better outcomes for Michkov.

Last year 92 players scored 60 points, 52 scored 70 points

Kesler's 2009-2011 remains incredibly impressive while playing on a line with Raymond and ummmm Samuelsson I think? Yes scoring was down, makes it even better looking back.

The rest of Kesler is still damn good, nothing Luchenko can't match if this goes to plan. Gotta pray it works out.