2023-24 #2: Phantoms (AHL), Reading Royals (ECHL), NCAA, Jrs., Int'l, etc.

[FLYguy3911]

Last year 92 players scored 60 points, 52 scored 70 points

That puts you in the top ~15% of the league. History suggests Luchanko probably ends up closer to the league average…which isn’t bad! What you want at number 13? Debatable but still a fine outcome.

Look he may be great and beat every projection out there. If you squint you can see some stuff. But right now he’s just a hope and a projection. If he makes a substantial leap as he plays league games this year, sure go crazy, but I think if you’re realistically projecting anything more than a middle six center, at this point, you are setting yourself up for disappointment.

The rest of Kesler is still damn good, nothing Luchenko can't match if this goes to plan. Gotta pray it works out

So we gotta pray for it? You should have started with that.

 

[TheKingPin]

Do you guys have any idea how much raw skill you need to process to be a 70 point guy barring any unforeseen changes in league scoring spikes? The kid was just a 70 point scorer in the OHL.

Hell a 70 point average would be one of the better outcomes for Michkov.

As was already said, Kopitar got 70 this year, 26 goals and 44 assists. I think Jett can do that especially if he just goes for offense more and plays with Michkov. I think he could beat that if the latter two come to fruition.

Not will to say he would do that if he entered the NHL today, in 3 years. But given his age an a possible path etc.

 

[volnoir]

As was already said, Kopitar got 70 this year, 26 goals and 44 assists. I think Jett can do that especially if he just goes for offense more and plays with Michkov. I think he could beat that if the latter two come to fruition.

Not will to say he would do that if he entered the NHL today, in 3 years. But given his age an a possible path etc.

One of his strongest attributes outside of his skating from my viewings was his ability to read the ice and get passes through to open guys in high danger areas. Especially on the PP. If he is on PP1 and is able to do the same thing he does currently in the OHL, he can easily be a 70+ point player IMO. Again as someone else brought up, a lot of that is going to have to do with opportunity.

 

[FLYguy3911]

As was already said, Kopitar got 70 this year, 26 goals and 44 assists.

So a Hall of Famer who *checks notes* has scored at a 70+ point pace for his entire career of nearly two decades!

GUYS.

I think Jett can do that especially if he just goes for offense more and plays with Michkov. I think he could beat that if the latter two come to fruition.

Based on what though!?

Any guy can score 70. Can any guy realistically do it for any sustainable period of time? There's like 20 guys in the league at any given point that can be that. That's a ridiculous bar to set.

 

[usahockey22flyers]

That puts you in the top ~15% of the league. History suggests Luchanko probably ends up closer to the league average…which isn’t bad! What you want at number 13? Debatable but still a fine outcome.

Look he may be great and beat every projection out there. If you squint you can see some stuff. But right now he’s just a hope and a projection. If he makes a substantial leap as he plays league games this year, sure go crazy, but I think if you’re realistically projecting anything more than a middle six center, at this point, you are setting yourself up for disappointment.


So we gotta pray for it? You should have started with that.

I’m an Ice Dogs and Flyers fan - I pray for everything lately haha

 

[TheKingPin]

One of his strongest attributes outside of his skating from my viewings was his ability to read the ice and get passes through to open guys in high danger areas. Especially on the PP. If he is on PP1 and is able to do the same thing he does currently in the OHL, he can easily be a 70+ point player IMO. Again as someone else brought up, a lot of that is going to have to do with opportunity.

Yea he really has a good sense for puck possession. He can get into the zone probably better than anyone on our roster now and he know how to draw players in and find the open man. Usually right to their tape and in shooting position. He can dangle too, just needs to do it more maybe.

So a Hall of Famer who *checks notes* has scored at a 70+ point pace for his entire career of nearly two decades!

GUYS.

Based on what though!?

Any guy can score 70. Can any guy realistically do it for any sustainable period of time? There's like 20 guys in the league at any given point that can be that. That's a ridiculous bar to set.

The point is 70 is not so unattainable. Not sayig by its floor. It’s just doable for his potential usage and linemates. We shall see

 

[FLYguy3911]

The point is 70 is not so unattainable. Not sayig by its floor. It’s just doable for his potential usage and linemates. We shall see

You could literally say this about every 18 year old first rounder. It is A outcome. It is not a realistic outcome.

Talking about 90-95% outcomes is not very productive in these discussions. Just for reference, Morgan Frost was a two time top scorer in the OHL. He is sitting on a career high of 46 points right now in the NHL.

 

[BernieParent]

I’m an Ice Dogs and Flyers fan - I pray for everything lately haha

I pray a lot regarding the Flyers, mostly the "deliver us from evil" variety.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

I mean Chandler Stephenson was pretty productive in the right situation as 1C for Vegas. That doesn’t necessarily mean that’s a true gauge of his talent level. He played a complimentary role while being attached to Stone & their other top player’s hips. When you acquired him for a 5th rounder & we’re paying him under $3M a year for most of his prime you’re not going to argue with what’s working as a whole. But when it came time to invest a lot potentially Vegas correctly assessed the situation & walked away. While Seattle paid up & that’s why it was one of the more criticized deals of free agency this year.

 

[TheKingPin]

You could literally say this about every 18 year old first rounder. It is A outcome. It is not a realistic outcome.

Talking about 90-95% outcomes is not very productive in these discussions. Just for reference, Morgan Frost was a two time top scorer in the OHL. He is sitting on a career high of 46 points right now in the NHL.

But I wouldn’t say that. I think Jett is better than Frost. Faster, stronger, better passer. Given age and projection. He basically could have been in the draft next year etc. I think he projects well.

 

[Random Forest]

I remember watching Konecny in his draft year. Similar production to Luchanko, but Konecny had a very obvious pop to his offensive game that I just don’t see from Luchanko yet. Much more assertive with the puck, a magnet for the action, tenacious. Luchanko has some great qualities, but I haven’t seen those alpha qualities that lead me to believe he can be an impact contributor all on his own.

Not to say he can’t, but this year will be a big one to making that determination. He needs to be a 90+ point guy who puts up big ES numbers in addition to his PP impact.

 

[Magua]

I think Jett is better than Frost. Faster, stronger, better passer. Given age and projection. He basically could have been in the draft next year etc.

Frost graded in the 94th percentile this year in top speed. And 90+% across the board in burst frequencies. Exactly how much faster are we suggesting? Again, I'm going to point out that I think Luchanko more so looks fast without the puck than with it most shifts. That's an important distinction.

I watched both at the same age, and I simply don't believe Luchanko is more skilled than Frost. I don't believe he's a better passer -- and we have NHL evidence on that one. His August birthday is not a negative, but when I think someone's skill is average as a draft eligible player, that's simply not something I feel comfortable linearly projecting because of a summer birthday. That stuff mostly solidifies early in development. Also, he looks relatively physically developed at 5'11 and 190 lbs. You do need to explain how a player can use those few months extra development.

 

[Curufinwe]

If the Flyers had taken Buium literally no one here would be saying how great Luchanko looked at the dev camp of some other team like Detroit or NYI, or really be aware of him at all.

 

[TheKingPin]

I remember watching Konecny in his draft year. Similar production to Luchanko, but Konecny had a very obvious pop to his offensive game that I just don’t see from Luchanko yet. Much more assertive with the puck, a magnet for the action, tenacious. Luchanko has some great qualities, but I haven’t seen those alpha qualities that lead me to believe he can be an impact contributor all on his own.

Not to say he can’t, but this year will be a big one to making that determination. He needs to be a 90+ point guy who puts up big ES numbers in addition to his PP impact.

I agree with the lack of swagger facet. I think that matters in pro sports. It’s pretty clear the Flyers want him to play a more selfish and offensive game. So we will see what that turns into.

Frost graded in the 94th percentile this year in top speed. And 90+% across the board in burst frequencies. Exactly how much faster are we suggesting? Again, I'm going to point out that I think Luchanko more so looks fast without the puck than with it most shifts. That's an important distinction.

I watched both at the same age, and I simply don't believe Luchanko is more skilled than Frost. I don't believe he's a better passer -- and we have NHL evidence on that one. His August birthday is not a negative, but when I think someone's skill is average as a draft eligible player, that's simply not something I feel comfortable linearly projecting because of a summer birthday. That stuff mostly solidifies early in development. Also, he looks relatively physically developed at 5'11 and 190 lbs. You do need to explain how a player can use those few months extra development.

I like Frost and see him as a 3C on a good team. I see Luchanko as a 2C on a good team. I think he’s got more accurate and deceptive passing, more speed, stronger etc. I see him as better. I know we all are on the Flyers for not wanting smaller players at times, but strength will always matter in sports. Jett uses his for wall battles and skating. When I see tops in grip strength with both hands that tells me he should have a very strong wrist shot. So I see 25 goals and 45 assists for him with room for higher if it works out for him.

He was THE youngest player in this draft. A few weeks later and he is in next years draft. So it would be a whole year of development. A year is a big deal at that age.

I get going off of odds and moneyball type stuff and I agree. But if you do that you are just playing probability. For example I called Couts being a 70 pt player after doing not much at all the years before. He was well beyond Jett’s age and track at that point. There are obviously many examples of that.

 

[usahockey22flyers]

If the Flyers had taken Buium literally no one here would be saying how great Luchanko looked at the dev camp of some other team like Detroit or NYI, or really be aware of him at all.

Yes, because no one would have watched or have been there?

 

[Random Forest]

Development camp is horrid for prospect evaluation. Real game action and production is all that matters, and none of that is simulated in light drills and scrimmages.

But it’s also worth pointing out that we were stoked in the summer of 2015 with Provorov and had absolutely no awareness of Mikko Rantanen or Matt Barzal, who would have been better selections, so the whole “none of us would care about Luchanko” thing doesn’t really play either.

 

[usahockey22flyers]

Development camp is horrid for prospect evaluation. Real game action and production is all that matters, and none of that is simulated in light drills and scrimmages.

But it’s also worth pointing out that we were stoked in the summer of 2015 with Provorov and had absolutely no awareness of Mikko Rantanen or Matt Barzal, who would have been better selections, so the whole “none of us would care about Luchanko” thing doesn’t really play either.

It’s cool they have it. In a sports world where access is taken away, the Flyers are the most accessible team in the city.

It’s nice if not necessary to see these kids standout because they should given their profiles/draft spots.

I think it’s cool I got to see some sessions and a scrimmage - my boss probably wasn’t happy but that’s fine.

 

[wankstifier]

Seems like Frost is already 2C quality by 5v5 scoring rates. With top minutes on an average PP, wouldn't he produce like a low-end 1C?

 

[Random Forest]

Yeah, I’m a fan of having it. Getting fans hyped about prospects is not bad. As jaded and cynical as this forum is about the “authentics”, you want fans to be engaged and excited, and it’s a good forum for that. Nothing about sports-watching is rational, so telling people to “calm down” is silly. If you’re going to take pleasure in following sports… you might as well actually take pleasure in it instead of wearing cynicism like it’s some reflection of your superiority as a fan.

I don’t see any useful information from development camp, but if people want to get excited about how quickly Jett Luchanko can skate around stationary cones, knock yourself out.

 

[FLYguy3911]

He was THE youngest player in this draft.

Just because my OCD is kicking in, I keep hearing this repeated, but it's not true. I think the Flyers propaganda machine cooked that one up. He wasn't even the youngest player drafted in the first round lol.

He's very young for his class and that is important to note, but when you go as high as he did, you still need to be able to bank on other things. As @Magua pointed out, one pathway would be physical development, but how much more is left to project there? Functional strength sure, but I don't think you can expect him to play much bigger than he already is and based off of his testing numbers, I don't want to say at 17 year old has peaked, but the pack is more likely to catch up.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Getting excited how a player looked going against a group where probably 95% will never make the NHL is funny. Wonder how many even play pro for a significant period.

 

[TheKingPin]

Just because my OCD is kicking in, I keep hearing this repeated, but it's not true. I think the Flyers propaganda machine cooked that one up. He wasn't even the youngest player drafted in the first round lol.

He's very young for his class and that is important to note, but when you go as high as he did, you still need to be able to bank on other things. As @Magua pointed out, one pathway would be physical development, but how much more is left to project there? Functional strength sure, but I don't think you can expect him to play much bigger than he already is and based off of his testing numbers, I don't want to say at 17 year old has peaked, but the pack is more likely to catch up.

I was going to fact check but saw something plainly stating he was the youngest so never checked. I am on the same page in terms of draft position and making the right pick. I would have 100% picked Buium even if I never wanted him in the first place.

Watching Jett I see a lot of raw talent and most important to me, speed and IQ. Those are two things you can’t teach. Then you add his age and combine results - there appears to be a standout player here. Or at least there could be a standout player. I guess he could have peaked as a 17 yo but I don’t think that’s fair given he is near the youngest player drafted. Several. Guys are almost a full year older like Yakemchuck and Levshunov. Many are 8+ months like Demidov.

Jett said that instead of playing video games during covid he worked out. That’s why he is so strong. You can certainly get stronger if that’s what’s good for your game. To me his IQ, want to get better, age, and already present skill projects well. I think he will be better than Frost

 

[Random Forest]

Perhaps an odd comparison given size difference, but one player whose draft profile reminds me of Luchanko’s is Mark Scheifele. Bad team, good showing at u18s, not a prolific draft year, very similar stat line, described as highly driven, rapidly rose up the rankings in his draft year after being virtually known in his D-1 year, taken well ahead of consensus rankings, etc. Winnipeg also passed on a draft faller (Couturier) to take him.

 

[FLYguy3911]

The appeal with Scheifele was that he was a late round OHL pick who played Junior B in his D-1 and while his draft year production wasn’t eye popping, it was unheard of at the time for a first year Junior player to produce at that clip he did. It was a quite the trajectory. Ryan Johansen was similar. Sanheim too on the defensive side.

Luchanko was a first round OHL pick who made little impact as a 16 year old. Of course you could take his big jump this year to hope for another big jump next year, but the skeptic in me is telling me he's not of the typical late bloomer profile. He's been on the radar since he was 14/15.

 

[Random Forest]

The appeal with Scheifele was that he was a late round OHL pick who played Junior B in his D-1 and while his draft year production wasn’t eye popping, it was unheard of at the time for a first year Junior player to produce at that clip he did. It was a quite the trajectory. Ryan Johansen was similar. Sanheim too on the defensive side.

Luchanko was a first round OHL pick who made little impact as a 16 year old. Of course you could take his big jump this year to hope for another big jump next year, but the skeptic in me is telling me he's not of the typical late bloomer profile. He's been on the radar since he was 14/15.

Good context. Truthfully, I don’t know whether that makes me feel better or worse about a rapidly rising prospect if they were totally out-of-nowhere versus being on the radar. It seems like the true “out of nowhere” prospects have a decent track record, at least from the CHL. But the Scheifeles, Johansens, and Sanheims are salient because they worked. Unsure if there are similar players who busted.