Yeah, no. Carter was never fully appreciated for being the good two-way center that he was until very late in his tenure as a Flyer, and even then, he was still spending plenty of time as a winger. Being a “one trick pony” was very much a criticism of him, in much the same way people are talking about Gauthier.
You’re describing a ton of similarities between the two players and then just saying they apply to Carter but not Gauthier. Eg, “that effortless release was always going to translate” for Carter but not Gauthier? What? Carter was never touted as a particularly creative player or passer, and frankly, his junior goal scoring was never as impressive as Gauthier’s either.
If 18 year old Jeff Carter had been drafted by the Flyers 5th overall in 2022, I have 0.00% doubt every single one of these criticisms of Gauthier would still be used (high end shot but not creative, not high IQ, won’t translate at the NHL level, etc).
I'm pushing back on the Carter comparison because it seems almost exclusively based on them both being tall, skating well, and having a great shot. In other words, it's a superficial and not particularly helpful comparison, like most player comps.
Not to beat a dead horse, but just a few specific rebuttals.
1) The pro-Carter crowd always talked up his two-way play. It was the high-and-wide crowd that conflates grinding with defense that thought it was an issue. These same people also think Morgan Frost is bad defensively when he simply doesn't grade out that way.
2) Carter was projected to be and spent most of his time at center. He really didn't spend any appreciable amount of time at wing once he was an established NHLer until the Richards / Carter / Briere / Giroux logjam happened.
3) That effortless release was paired with Carter's intelligence in 1 v 1 situations on the rush. He just didn't fire from any and everywhere and beat people because his shot was just too good. He very intentionally used his size, speed, and yes, creativity (maybe not as a traditional playmaker, but absolutely to deceptively get to his spot, get the defender on the wrong foot, and catch the goalie off-guard.) to score. I haven't watched Gauthier play at all, so I have no idea if he has that same ability, but from what I'm hearing from others who watch him regularly (and they do), the answer is not really? He's just firing from everywhere and beating sub-NHL goalies because his shot is that good, and the concern is that this won't translate. Whether or not that is accurate, I'll have to wait and see before I make my own judgement. Maybe he has room to grow that ability and simply hasn't needed to as of yet but still can?
4) Nuanced analysis of Carter as a prospect didn't exist in 2003. To see him actually play in any reasonable sample, you pretty much would have needed to have lived in Ontario. All we knew was that he was big, skated well, and had a hell of a wrist shot. I had to watch him play in the AHL & NHL before I could really grasp his game. It'll be the same for me with Gauthier, but only because I lack the inclination and time to watch any prospects. But there are people who are watching those prospects, who are making nuanced evaluations, because they can literally stream all of his games, a luxury we didn't have back in 2003. They also have a much more proficient understanding of the value of different metrics, many of which didn't even exit yet in 2003.
As I pointed out earlier, the "hipsters" didn't arrive at their opinion of Gauthier because Chuck drafted him. They weren't keen on him going into that draft in the first place, and that's all well-documented on this very site, because they didn't like his profile, and especially, from my understanding of their reasoning, because they didn't like his overall skill level and hockey IQ, or whatever you want to call it based on their viewings. By the way, many of these "hipsters" you are trying to call out here were literal children when Carter was drafted, so I just don't understand the "irony" that you are seeing with there.
