Prospect Info: 2023-24 #1: Phantoms (AHL), Reading Royals (ECHL), NCAA, Jrs., Int'l, etc.

[tnfrs]

I'm pushing back on the Carter comparison because it seems almost exclusively based on them both being tall, skating well, and having a great shot. In other words, it's a superficial and not particularly helpful comparison, like most player comps.

Not to beat a dead horse, but just a few specific rebuttals.

1) The pro-Carter crowd always talked up his two-way play. It was the high-and-wide crowd that conflates grinding with defense that thought it was an issue. These same people also think Morgan Frost is bad defensively when he simply doesn't grade out that way.

2) Carter was projected to be and spent most of his time at center. He really didn't spend any appreciable amount of time at wing once he was an established NHLer until the Richards / Carter / Briere / Giroux logjam happened.

3) That effortless release was paired with Carter's intelligence in 1 v 1 situations on the rush. He just didn't fire from any and everywhere and beat people because his shot was just too good. He very intentionally used his size, speed, and yes, creativity (maybe not as a traditional playmaker, but absolutely to deceptively get to his spot, get the defender on the wrong foot, and catch the goalie off-guard.) to score. I haven't watched Gauthier play at all, so I have no idea if he has that same ability, but from what I'm hearing from others who watch him regularly (and they do), the answer is not really? He's just firing from everywhere and beating sub-NHL goalies because his shot is that good, and the concern is that this won't translate. Whether or not that is accurate, I'll have to wait and see before I make my own judgement. Maybe he has room to grow that ability and simply hasn't needed to as of yet but still can?

4) Nuanced analysis of Carter as a prospect didn't exist in 2003. To see him actually play in any reasonable sample, you pretty much would have needed to have lived in Ontario. All we knew was that he was big, skated well, and had a hell of a wrist shot. I had to watch him play in the AHL & NHL before I could really grasp his game. It'll be the same for me with Gauthier, but only because I lack the inclination and time to watch any prospects. But there are people who are watching those prospects, who are making nuanced evaluations, because they can literally stream all of his games, a luxury we didn't have back in 2003. They also have a much more proficient understanding of the value of different metrics, many of which didn't even exit yet in 2003.

As I pointed out earlier, the "hipsters" didn't arrive at their opinion of Gauthier because Chuck drafted him. They weren't keen on him going into that draft in the first place, and that's all well-documented on this very site, because they didn't like his profile, and especially, from my understanding of their reasoning, because they didn't like his overall skill level and hockey IQ, or whatever you want to call it based on their viewings. By the way, many of these "hipsters" you are trying to call out here were literal children when Carter was drafted, so I just don't understand the "irony" that you are seeing with there.

i think the irony is that even now that we have nuanced analysis available people still formulate very passionate opinions based on 2nd hand evaluations without ever watching a game

 

[VladDrag]

None of this has to do with my judgment of Gauthier the player. Im also not trying to change anyone’s evaluation of him as a player. I’m making an observation that Gauthier seems to be a very polarizing prospect among (some) Flyers fans and those fans appear to hold him generally in lower regard than other fans and observers around the league. I think there are reasons for that, and I find those reasons interesting and worth remarking on. I used Jeff Carter to illustrate another instance of a player polarizing this fanbase, and I suspect Gauthier’s career won’t be different in that regard.

This is very clearly not “ad hominem” fwiw. Odd remark. It’s an observation of this sub community of Flyers fans, sure.

Your observation that some Flyers fans hold Gauthier in lower regard than other fans is accurate. Your conclusion that it’s because Chuck Fletcher drafted him is the issue. In other words, your conclusion is based on what you perceive the opinion of others are and not what has actually been written about Gauthier. So sure, it’s not ad hominem exactly. But it’s the same process. You’re dismissing others opinions because of view of that poster, and not what that poster wrote about Gauthier.

All that being said, I don’t like giving singular projections of prospects. I don’t think that’s how prospects work. I’ve said this before, but every single prospect has a distribution of outcomes associated with them with various probabilities. Some players have very high likelihoods of reaching their top outcome, others less. Some have high probability of a low outcome but reasonable probability of a top outcome without much in between, etc. Just out of my ass right now, subject to change, my distribution for Gauthier is roughly: a ~20% chance of being a 40 goal scorer in his prime with a Jeff Carter type impact; a ~40% probability of being a 30g, 60p player; a 20% chance of being a middle six type player with a scoring touch; and a 20% chance of being less than that and/or bust.

I will be honest here, I have spoken about him negatively in the recent past. But that’s compared to that top elite level 40-50 goal scorer. He’s not consistently active, and rarely flashes very high end puck skills. This doesn’t mean he’s bad, but I do have concern how good he can be.

Last year, 54 forwards scored more than 30g. Just look at the names in that list. The majority of those guys are high end skill guys that have more assists than goals (something like 15/54 had more goals). My reservations regarding Cutter isn’t just what I am not seeing from him, it’s also compounded with just how hard it is to score 30+ goals. It takes a lot of high end skill. We also know that shooting talent doesn’t automatically translate to goal scoring. So he’s got a few things going against him.

This is why we want to see more passing, more shooting from closer, more dynamic play from him. Can he break the mold, and be somewhat of a unicorn? Sure. But then he’s going to have to have an OV-like shot. And does he? Does he have an all world, maybe one of the best ever shots? What’s the likelihood of that? Very slim. So again, could he be? Sure. Do I want him to be? Yes. But what I am saying is temper your expectations because the pathway for a Gauthier-type player with those limitations is not one that is traversed regularly. That’s the biggest issue.

 

[mja]

i think the irony is that even now that we have nuanced analysis available people still formulate very passionate opinions based on 2nd hand evaluations without ever watching a game

I'm assuming you are new here, given your join date, and maybe never lurked, but some of the people I think you are referring to here are hardcore draft nerds who do shit like track down whole game video of mid-round euros so that they put out extensive draft lists every year just for fun. They have absolutely watched Cutter Gauthier play a hell of a lot of hockey dating back to before he even stepped foot on BC's campus.

 

[scumpup]

As one of those so called young hipsters, negative nancy even, I need more from Cutter. He's a top six NHLer almost guaranteed, great. I need more before declaring him Mister Flyer number 2. (michkov is definitely the heir of hockey in my book. Better than Ovi or Sid is is his ceiling.). I need to see that playmaking upside. He won't be Ovechkin scoring significantly more goals than assists. That's rare. Only Ovi does that (in the modern elite world).

Yea he can shoot. His shot isn't anything new, we've seen it before. Plenty of good players. Someone said 30/30=60. I agree thats his reasonable projection. 50-60 is very realistic. If he really is the next tier up of 80+ pointers, I need to see him have the awareness other players have. Giroux had a killer shot too comparable or even better than cutter's, and even that wasn't the focal part of his game. 15-20 years ago when development wasn't quite as good. (hockey run by dinosaurs limiting potential of players.)

Don't get me wrong, we dearly need 60 point players, but 60 point players don't save franchises like twitter dreams. Playing Cutter in his current projection at C does not replace Couturier at center for 1C. Couturier is one of the weakest top level Centers by my count (age + not having the offense other players have. Definitely elite defensively but he is not a one man game-wrecking machine like other elite C's are.) He does not even match him no matter how much he needs to "cook" in the nhl. Cutter is in the skilled offensive goal scorer class of player. Think maybe Konecny for a current flyers comparison, though with more goal power and way less assist power.

If Cutter is to be an elite player, he NEEDS to generate offense outside of goalscoring at the same level as his goal scoring talent. Effectively, he can demonstrate that by creating space and passing for real scoring opportunities with his skilled linemates, like other posters have mentioned. If he can demonstrate that, we can start to project him higher and higher.

Cutter is good. But he still has much to prove if he is to be elite.

 

[tnfrs]

I'm assuming you are new here, given your join date, and maybe never lurked, but some of the people I think you are referring to here are hardcore draft nerds who do shit like track down whole game video of mid-round euros so that they put out extensive draft lists every year just for fun. They have absolutely watched Cutter Gauthier play a hell of a lot of hockey dating back to before he even stepped foot on BC's campus.

im sure theyre legends on the HF boards, and you probably didnt mean to condescend about the age of my account here but ive heard that appeal to authority here before and i havent seen it. having surface level knowledge of 90+ prospects every year just convinces me youre not spending enough time watching their progress later to give that same in depth analysis especially when it contradicts the actual authorities

 

[mja]

im sure theyre legends on the HF boards, and you probably didnt mean to condescend about the age of my account here but ive heard that appeal to authority here before and i havent seen it. having surface level knowledge of 90+ prospects every year just convinces me youre not spending enough time watching their progress later to give that same in depth analysis especially when it contradicts the actual authorities

Yeah, I don’t really see any point in engaging here anymore. I was just giving you context that your lazy assumption was not based in reality. Meanwhile, you managed to be both condescending and appeal to authority while projecting both of those onto me. Have a nice day.

 

[VladDrag]

So I am watching the BC/ Harvard game from earlier today, and an exact example of this shot first/poor shot selection play happened with Gauthier. It’s rather fitting that I was able to find this within his first 4 shifts of the game. This is the kind of play I want to see him make, and take the next step forward.

Photo 1: defenseman has the puck at the top of the zone and passes to Cutter (highlighted yellow). The black dotted line is the pass.

Photo 2: Cutter is drifting away from the net but has a cross seam pass to a streaking winger in a dangerous position. The dotted black line would be the pass. The red is the winger. If he made it, this winger and the net front guy could have made a 2v1. Cutter looks at the winger and knows he’s there.

Photo 3 - instead he turned around and fired a puck side of the goalie. (Gauthier is highlighted, red circle is the puck).

And yes, I realize this is just one play, but it’s representative of where I would like to see Gauthier.

 

[Larry44]

So the other day, I mentions this
View attachment 772552

Well yesterday, I had the chance to thumb thru it, thinking of buying it. Nope. Not worth the money. Comcast 100% paid The Hockey News for that cover along with a full page ad inside. Oh, and a 4 page spread on the New Era of Orange....sound familiar? Talk of how the organization is ready for a full on rebuild, had us picking 3rd.

It was ranking guys 21 and younger, Michkov was ranked 14th, Cutter in the 20's. For team ranking of depth, they gave C+ for forwards, C- for Defense and for Goalies.

So why again are the Flyers on the cover when their ranking in in the C's while multiple other teams have A's and B's rankings? Isn't the cover reserved for the top team? Or team with the top prospect....not #14. It 100% read like a Flyers propaganda piece. A paid piece.

In the business we call it advertorial. If you buy enough ads you get some editorial space, including the cover. I decided to buy it anyway, good ‘24 draft preview and the Flyer feature was written by Wayne Fish as usual. I haven’t subscribed for years but I don’t want THN to go under so I buy the Draft Preview and Prospects Issue.

It’s not a bad take. It’s a disingenuous one. The same people who would defend Carter are the ones critical of Gauthier’s standing as an elite prospect. If we thought he’d be Carter, there’d be no criticism.

As a Carter fan, I felt he was under appreciated because he was an effortless skater vs Richards who was loved for grimacing. I like Gauthier as a prospect. He really looks like a winger, not a C, so I’ll be happy if he’s a robust scoring winger 5 years from now. He’s not likely a franchise player - that’s Michkov.

 

[VladDrag]

So I am watching the BC/ Harvard game from earlier today, and an exact example of this shot first/poor shot selection play happened with Gauthier. It’s rather fitting that I was able to find this within his first 4 shifts of the game. This is the kind of play I want to see him make, and take the next step forward.

Photo 1: defenseman has the puck at the top of the zone and passes to Cutter (highlighted yellow). The black dotted line is the pass.

View attachment 773787

Photo 2: Cutter is drifting away from the net but has a cross seam pass to a streaking winger in a dangerous position. The dotted black line would be the pass. The red is the winger. If he made it, this winger and the net front guy could have made a 2v1. Cutter looks at the winger and knows he’s there.

View attachment 773788

Photo 3 - instead he turned around and fired a puck side of the goalie. (Gauthier is highlighted, red circle is the puck).

View attachment 773812
And yes, I realize this is just one play, but it’s representative of where I would like to see Gauthier.

Just to follow this up, Gauthier maked some nice passes at 5v4. On the PP is where I’ve seen an improvement on the pass/shot selection, which makes sense because he has a litttle bit more time there.

On one play, he took a cross ice pass and slap- passed it (feigning the one timer) to the man and the bumper position. That player deflected the puck into the net, but due to goalie interference the goal was disallowed.

On another play, he took the puck from the high right circle turned into a good shooting position on his forhand. But instead of shooting into a few bodies, he made a deceptive backhand pass to a bumper player.

Well, these are high levels of skill, there’s a bit of deception and creativity in these plays, and that’s really what I want to see from Gauthier.

All in all, he played a pretty darn good game.

 

[Curufinwe]

Sandstrom played on Black Friday. 4 GA on 15 shots.

TheAHL.com | The American Hockey League

theahl.com

 

[Curufinwe]

But how about Samu Tuomaala turning himself into a player again?

It's pretty cool.

TheAHL.com | The American Hockey League

theahl.com

SAMU TUOMAALA​

LEHIGH VALLEY PHANTOMS​

Position: F
5-10 / 180lbs
Shoots: R

Birthdate: 2003-01-08
Birth place: Oulu, Finland

NHL Draft:

Philadelphia Flyers - Drafted: 2021, Round: 2 (#46)

2023-24 Regular Season​

• GP
  18
• G
  4
• A
  13
• PTS
  17

 

[BernieParent]

Sandstrom played on Black Friday. 4 GA on 15 shots.

TheAHL.com | The American Hockey League

theahl.com

That's pretty black. Did he appear as weak as these numbers seem to indicate?

 

[Strawberry Fields]

Former future Flyer great scored his first this weekend.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

Ship has likely sailed but has there ever been an explanation of Bryce Brodzinski's decision to return to the Gophers for a fifth season rather than sign an ELC with the Flyers? Was it the team that lost interest (a seventh round pick is generally a shot in the dark) or was Brodzinski simply interested in pursuing free agency?

Will be 24 next summer but 8-8-16 in 14 games - while not explosive for a fifth-year college player - is intriguing.

With the number of young forwards in the Flyers pipeline could see the team moving on.

Just curious on this one.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Ship has likely sailed but has there ever been an explanation of Bryce Brodzinski's decision to return to the Gophers for a fifth season rather than sign an ELC with the Flyers? Was it the team that lost interest (a seventh round pick is generally a shot in the dark) or was Brodzinski simply interested in pursuing free agency?

Will be 24 next summer but 8-8-16 in 14 games - while not explosive for a fifth-year college player - is intriguing.

With the number of young forwards in the Flyers pipeline could see the team moving on.

Just curious on this one.

The Flyers retained his rights. He was eligible for a fifth season due to the C-virus.

Why did he return? Probably attempt to win an NCAA title.

 

[VladDrag]

No.3 ranked DU (Massimo Rizzo) plays No.2 ranked ND (Owen McLaughlin) this Friday and Saturday, two center prospects that I find very interesting to watch. It’s on NCHC TV (streaming service), so I will probably select a day pass next week and watch.

They play again in late January on CBS Sports as well.

 

[GKJ]

 

[Eye of Ra]

how is Grans and Ginning doing?

 

[FLYguy3911]

Have fun with that small, skilled defense New Jersey.

 

[sregdoor]

I have been away and offline for a month, where is Deadhead?

 

[mr4tno]

The Flyers retained his rights. He was eligible for a fifth season due to the C-virus.

Why did he return? Probably attempt to win an NCAA title.

He's not an NHL caliber player

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

 

[wankstifier]

I'm still pretty high on Gauthier's celebrity golf game

 

[Tripod]

We are going to load up on dmen this next draft

 

[Appleyard]

We are going to load up on dmen this next draft

My pipe dream is:

Fall to ~5-6 worst in league.

Trade someone for another 1st.

Pick ~5-6, ~20, ~25


Manage to get one of the potential 1Cs (Demidov, Catton, Helenius)
Then pick up two of the ridiculous D prospects who will be there in 20s... (Hutson, Buium, Mews, Yakemchuk... heck, maybe Kiviharju falls due to size and injury.)