Prospect Info: 2023-24 #1: Phantoms (AHL), Reading Royals (ECHL), NCAA, Jrs., Int'l, etc.

[VladDrag]

To state the obvious (or “something that isn’t there” depending on your POV), the suspicion of Gauthier is 99% because of the people who drafted him, not because of any highly perceptive observations that only his critics can spot.

He’s a 5th overall pick that’s done absolutely nothing but score goals in the NCAA (and in men’s tournaments) at a ridiculous rate, with tools that few players possess. Like any junior aged player, he’s not a flawless prospect, and, sure, his skill set may not translate, but I struggle to think of anything he could have done as a U20 player to alleviate the supposed concerns about his skill set, other than to not have been drafted by Chuck Fletcher and co.

There might be some truth in this, but there’s also some absolute BS in this as well. I love Bobby Brink and Cam York, even after bashing the York at the time. I have been closely following Owen McLaughlin and to a lesser extent Devin Kaplan. I hope Emil Andrae can put in a promising NA season.

I like Gauthier as a prospect in that I think he will be an NHL player. But the way it’s been framed is that Gauthier will come in next year, be the de facto the top line center for the next 10 years, and ultimately signifies the completion of the rebuild (along with a Michkov). Here’s the problem, except for his shot, he doesnt consistently show elite levels of talent. So the question is how far can that take him? I would also be less pessimistic about his future, if the team didn’t constantly view him as a center. I think he will be most effective as a left winger.

 

[Random Forest]

What are the concerns people have with his skillset?

Just look at what’s been written on the past couple pages. The concerns all sound very much like the complaints people had about Jeff Carter.

“not a real center”
”shoots from distance”
”doesn’t move the puck well”

…or variations of those critiques.

My whole point with bringing Jeff Carter up at all is to suggest that there is a prototype for Gauthier here, and the concerns being mentioned all strike me as very contrived reasons to be pessimistic.

Except their criticisms of Gauthier pre-date the Flyers' drafting of him.

Your comparison of him to Carter is rather superficial. Big, fast, goal-scorer. I have't watched Gauthier play, so I have no opinion, but the complaints I've seen are that he doesn't have the skillset of an NHL center and that his goalscoring may not translate as well as one might hope against NHL goaltenders because of how he's been scoring his goals. Carter, meanwhile, absolutely had the skillset of an NHL center along with a nearly elite wrist shot that was destined to translate, all of which was highly evident and touted way back in juniors by the same types of people.

The true irony here is the same people who killed Carter are the ones defending everything the organization does, including talking up rosy projections of all of its current prospects. That's because it's all based on things that are ultimately superficial, i.e. physical tools and certain counting stats, combined with echoing propaganda in service to a desperate and deeply flawed organizational philosophy that values the wrong things.

Look, I get it. Some people just want to enjoy talking about the favorite team again, which is understandable, but others aren't just being negative for the sake of being negative. The Gauthier critics are basing their criticism specifically on their own evaluations after watching him play. If he flashed the skillset of an NHL center in their mind and was scoring more of his goals from the areas of the ice he'll need to get to for his goalscoring to fully translate, I'd imagine they'd all be big fans, regardless of who drafted him. You may not like it, but their criticism of his play is detailed and cogent.

Now, all of that doesn't mean that Gauthier's critics are destined to be correct. Nobody's perfect. But unfortunately their batting average has been pretty damned good.

See, to me, the irony is the opposite — that Gauthier’s critics really just can’t help but criticize the Flyers and go out of their way to construct reasons for pessimism. There’s probably some truth to both ironies! I think your first paragraph is a golden example. “Carter was a prototypical goal scorer with an elite wrist shot, touted way back in juniors who was destined to be successful in the NHL… but Gauthier is not because… reasons”.

Why not? Gauthier‘s resume as a U20 player strikes me as every bit as impressive, if not more impressive, than Carter’s. Doesn’t mean he will hit the Carter projection, of course, but it’s interesting which players get hyped or not and for what reasons.

There might be some truth in this, but there’s also some absolute BS in this as well. I love Bobby Brink and Cam York, even after bashing the York at the time. I have been closely following Owen McLaughlin and to a lesser extent Devin Kaplan. I hope Emil Andrae can put in a promising NA season.

I like Gauthier as a prospect in that I think he will be an NHL player. But the way it’s been framed is that Gauthier will come in next year, be the de facto the top line center for the next 10 years, and ultimately signifies the completion of the rebuild (along with a Michkov). Here’s the problem, except for his shot, he doesnt consistently show elite levels of talent. So the question is how far can that take him? I would also be less pessimistic about his future, if the team didn’t constantly view him as a center. I think he will be most effective as a left winger.

Is it really being framed that way? I don’t agree with that. Regardless, I’m not saying this is applicable to every player across every draft, but the default posture with some posters (not necessarily you) is that every (or most) decisions the org makes is bad, and it takes an unreasonable amount of contrary evidence in order to admit otherwise.

Gauthier criticism may yet be proven fully correct. I’m just saying he has an uphill battle to climb in perception amongst a certain contingent of fans who fancy themselves as fashionable hipsters who see things that the casuals don’t.

 

[Tripod]

As an outsider, I see the criticisms of him often being:

The goals he is scoring on, are often too far out to be NHL goals.
Shoots everything when there are better pass options available.
Has shown little goal creation for others.

Those are valid criticisms that can take him from a Tippett type guy, to a tier or 2 above him.

 

[TB87]

This website is being a slut this morning. I’ve had to write 4 different posts here because the site refreshed 3 times and killed my other posts lol.


Gauthier’s positives: Shot & plus skating attributes

Gauthier’s negatives: shot selection, playmaking, anticipation, 1-on-1 battles, & deception.

He’s a good player who has the physical tools to be a great player but that rarely manifests itself. I think he’ll be a good NHLer but ya want a great NHLer with the 5th overall pick and I just haven’t seen that at any consistent level to be confident that he’ll magically put it all together when he turns pro. I would LOVE it if he does though!!!

 

[mja]

Just look at what’s been written on the past couple pages. The concerns all sound very much like the complaints people had about Jeff Carter.

“not a real center”
”shoots from distance”
”doesn’t move the puck well”

…or variations of those critiques.

My whole point with bringing Jeff Carter up at all is to suggest that there is a prototype for Gauthier here, and the concerns being mentioned all strike me as very contrived reasons to be pessimistic.



See, to me, the irony is the opposite — that Gauthier’s critics really just can’t help but criticize the Flyers and go out of their way to construct reasons for pessimism. There’s probably some truth to both ironies! I think your first paragraph is a golden example. “Carter was a prototypical goal scorer with an elite wrist shot, touted way back in juniors who was destined to be successful in the NHL… but Gauthier is not because… reasons”.

Why not? Gauthier‘s resume as a U20 player strikes me as every bit as impressive, if not more impressive, than Carter’s. Doesn’t mean he will hit the Carter projection, of course, but it’s interesting which players get hyped or not and for what reasons.


Is it really being framed that way? I don’t agree with that. Regardless, I’m not saying this is applicable to every player across every draft, but the default posture with some posters (not necessarily you) is that every (or most) decisions the org makes is bad, and it takes an unreasonable amount of contrary evidence in order to admit otherwise.

Gauthier criticism may yet be proven fully correct. I’m just saying he has an uphill battle to climb in perception amongst a certain contingent of fans who fancy themselves as fashionable hipsters who see things that the casuals don’t.

I think you are misremembering entirely the criticism of Carter, which wasn't based on his ability to play C (he was a fine two-way C) or how he scored goals (his ability to use his speed to create space for himself in the high slot off of the rush with defenders on their heels combined with that effortless release was always going to translate), but rather that he didn't use his size to be some sort of prototypical power forward, didn't seem to be skating very hard (which is how it works when you skate well - Hello, Morgan Frost!), and that he supposedly missed tons of goals because he routinely missed the net trying to go top corner. All of that criticism, by the way, was after Carter was an established NHL player, not while he was a prospect.

I understand you think that people are just shitting on Gauthier out of pessimism about the team. You're off-base though. Go back and look at the pre-draft threads for people's takes on Gauthier before the Flyers drafted him. The concerns about his profile - physical tools with a high-end shot but not an offensively-creative or particularly high IQ player - were raised by these same people before the draft. That's because it's a profile the tends to result in a complimentary top 9 winger, not a first line center, and you aren't getting your money's worth at 5th overall landing a physically toolsy winger who doesn't process the game particularly well.

Those were not concerns people ever had about Carter. He was a smart player who knew how to leverage his physical tools effectively to be dangerous offensively and strong defensively, helping to tilt the ice in his team's direction even when facing off against top competition, which is something the high-and-wide crowd could never grasp. They just thought he was a p***y who refused to use his size to his advantage and was too laid back. Any comparison of the two players is superficial.

 

[Random Forest]

I think you are misremembering entirely the criticism of Carter, which wasn't based on his ability to play C (he was a fine two-way C) or how he scored goals (his ability to use his speed to create space for himself in the high slot off of the rush with defenders on their heels combined with that effortless release was always going to translate), but rather that he didn't use his size to be some sort of prototypical power forward, didn't seem to be skating very hard (which is how it works when you skate well - Hello, Morgan Frost!), and that he supposedly missed tons of goals because he routinely missed the net trying to go top corner. All of that criticism, by the way, was after Carter was an established NHL player, not while he was a prospect.

I understand you think that people are just shitting on Gauthier out of pessimism about the team. You're off-base though. Go back and look at the pre-draft threads for people's takes on Gauthier before the Flyers drafted him. The concerns about his profile - physical tools with a high-end shot but not an offensively-creative or particularly high IQ player - were raised by these same people before the draft. That's because it's a profile the tends to result in a complimentary top 9 winger, not a first line center, and you aren't getting your money's worth at 5th overall landing a physically toolsy winger who doesn't process the game particularly well.

Those were not concerns people ever had about Carter. He was a smart player who knew how to leverage his physical tools effectively to be dangerous offensively and strong defensively, helping to tilt the ice in his team's direction even when facing off against top competition, which is something the high-and-wide crowd could never grasp. They just thought he was a p***y who refused to use his size to his advantage and was too laid back. Any comparison of the two players is superficial.

Yeah, no. Carter was never fully appreciated for being the good two-way center that he was until very late in his tenure as a Flyer, and even then, he was still spending plenty of time as a winger. Being a “one trick pony” was very much a criticism of him, in much the same way people are talking about Gauthier.

You’re describing a ton of similarities between the two players and then just saying they apply to Carter but not Gauthier. Eg, “that effortless release was always going to translate” for Carter but not Gauthier? What? Carter was never touted as a particularly creative player or passer, and frankly, his junior goal scoring was never as impressive as Gauthier’s either.

If 18 year old Jeff Carter had been drafted by the Flyers 5th overall in 2022, I have 0.00% doubt every single one of these criticisms of Gauthier would still be used (high end shot but not creative, not high IQ, won’t translate at the NHL level, etc).

 

[tnfrs]

i remember jeff carter being ranked around 25th of the first round in 2003 and shooting up the board right before the draft and guys like dustin brown and seabrook still on the board, kesler too who they tried to offer sheet. i dont know if this board was unanimous on how they felt but I remember seeing carter get shit on even after he had 20+ goals in his rookie season and pretty much every season thereafter and I cant imagine this place was any less hostile back then. but its kind of interesting how the flyers went off the board for carter and gauthier but people remember carter as the belle of the ball in his draft year for some reason

 

[Random Forest]

Yeah, and I’m not trying to get too cute with this comparison either, given that Carter was drafted 20 years ago. I’m just saying that Carter was a very polarizing player, and Gauthier is already profiling to be just as polarizing for many similar reasons. It’s just that the poles have reversed for reasons that I find pretty interesting. The hipster fans loved Carter and don’t like Gauthier, and I think it has more to do with the hipsters than the players themselves.

 

[BillDineen]

I mean the dev team chose to have him at wing. I hope he can be a center, but time will tell.

 

[renberg]

If there was a better player available than Gauthier at 5 I’d rag about him but there wasn’t. Is he a center? TBD. Put a playmaker like Brink with him and another strong wing with good speed such as Farabee and CG might do well at center. Line mates matter-all three not just a pair.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

Just look at what’s been written on the past couple pages. The concerns all sound very much like the complaints people had about Jeff Carter.

“not a real center”
”shoots from distance”
”doesn’t move the puck well”

…or variations of those critiques.

My whole point with bringing Jeff Carter up at all is to suggest that there is a prototype for Gauthier here, and the concerns being mentioned all strike me as very contrived reasons to be pessimistic.

Except the people who made those complaints were the "casuals" when Carter was a Flyer and the "hipster" fans thought he was being maligned for no good reason as he was cleary an effective player.

Carter from what I remember had a more well rounded game as a prospect, was clearly the best player on his junior team his final 3 seasons and was better at getting into high danger shooting areas to utilize his shot.

If you want to compare CG to a Flyer that people like to complain about it should be Tippett.

If CG peaks like Jeff Carter instead of Owen Tippett+ I'll be ecstatic.

But you keep pumping out the opinion contrary to the consensus of all the guys that watch a ton of tape on these guys and have a track record of being right (latter part doesn't include me)

All while calling them "hipsters"....

 

[Random Forest]

Except the people who made those complaints were the "casuals" when Carter was a Flyer and the "hipster" fans thought he was being maligned for no good reason as he was cleary an effective player.

Carter from what I remember had a more well rounded game as a prospect, was clearly the best player on his junior team his final 3 seasons and was better at getting into high danger shooting areas to utilize his shot.

If you want to compare CG to a Flyer that people like to complain about it should be Tippett.

If CG peaks like Jeff Carter instead of Owen Tippett+ I'll be ecstatic.

But you keep pumping out the opinion contrary to the consensus of all the guys that watch a ton of tape on these guys and have a track record of being right (latter part doesn't include me)

All while calling them "hipsters"....

That’s what makes it ironic! Before they were hipsters, I think they were pretty good and had a decent track record, including on Carter. Then they became so jaded and cynical with the Flyers org that they became reflexively pessimistic of virtually everything and lost a lot of the reasonable insight they once may have had, like with Gauthier. Now they malign Gauthier because “lol Flyers bad process, same as it ever was, old boys club blah blah” but dress it up as though it’s wise and impartial criticism.

 

[Ironmanrulez]

So the other day, I mentions this
View attachment 772552

Well yesterday, I had the chance to thumb thru it, thinking of buying it. Nope. Not worth the money. Comcast 100% paid The Hockey News for that cover along with a full page ad inside. Oh, and a 4 page spread on the New Era of Orange....sound familiar? Talk of how the organization is ready for a full on rebuild, had us picking 3rd.

It was ranking guys 21 and younger, Michkov was ranked 14th, Cutter in the 20's. For team ranking of depth, they gave C+ for forwards, C- for Defense and for Goalies.

So why again are the Flyers on the cover when their ranking in in the C's while multiple other teams have A's and B's rankings? Isn't the cover reserved for the top team? Or team with the top prospect....not #14. It 100% read like a Flyers propaganda piece. A paid piece.

P.R.O.P.A.G.A.N.D.A

Its like car magazines get paid for good tests or gaming magazines get paid for good tests.

Its the old world in new (but old) orange!

 

[wankstifier]

Are Gauthier and Carter comparable prospects?

 

[renberg]

Carter's biggest issue early on with the Flyers was that Richards was exactly what the fans wanted out of a player; tough and feisty. Carter was more of a finesse player and paled in comparison to Richards when it came to gritty play. He never really overcame that. When the two were traded away, the fans were up in arms over the Richards deal. The Carter one was met with a shrug.

 

[TB87]

Are Gauthier and Carter comparable prospects?

From my viewings: Nope, not really.

 

[tnfrs]

Are Gauthier and Carter comparable prospects?

not really, the only real comparison is goal scoring, but at the same ages Cutter's goals per game was consistently higher, hes a far better penalty killer too. boston college PK is 92% they just mentioned on the feed. they shoot from the same areas and theyre both tall but Cutter has the strength advantage. theres not a ton of data to compare junior seasons but their NHLe in post draft years are similar Carter was 31 and 36 in his d1 and d2, cutter was 37 in 2023 and sitting at 40 right now. The main difference is Cutter is playing against NCAA comp in his D+ years and Carter was still facing OHL tendies

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Are Gauthier and Carter comparable prospects?

I'm assuming you mean tiers purely as prospects here. OHL Carter I could see.

But Carter had the Calder Cup run that changed everything.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

That’s what makes it ironic! Before they were hipsters, I think they were pretty good and had a decent track record, including on Carter. Then they became so jaded and cynical with the Flyers org that they became reflexively pessimistic of virtually everything and lost a lot of the reasonable insight they once may have had, like with Gauthier. Now they malign Gauthier because “lol Flyers bad process, same as it ever was, old boys club blah blah” but dress it up as though it’s wise and impartial criticism.

Okay just so we are on the same page here. What do you project Gauthier to be? What position will he take in the line up and what sort of points totals can be expected from him?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Okay just so we are on the same page here. What do you project Gauthier to be? What position will he take in the line up and what sort of points totals can be expected from him?

Everything I said was purely as prospects. I am solidly in the stop projecting huge success for anyone but the highest end prospects camp.

From what I remember, people were hoping for Carter to be a 2C. I wouldn't use that categorization for a prospect anymore, but hoping for a good Middle 6 Forward is a reasonable facsimile.

Then of course he lead the AHL in playoff scoring after only playing a couple of games in the regular season and the hope grew significantly.

 

[VladDrag]

That’s what makes it ironic! Before they were hipsters, I think they were pretty good and had a decent track record, including on Carter. Then they became so jaded and cynical with the Flyers org that they became reflexively pessimistic of virtually everything and lost a lot of the reasonable insight they once may have had, like with Gauthier. Now they malign Gauthier because “lol Flyers bad process, same as it ever was, old boys club blah blah” but dress it up as though it’s wise and impartial criticism.

Here is my biggest issue with this whole conversation….You haven’t said anything about Gauthier to make anyone change their mind.
You don’t agree with the assessments on Gauthier? Cool. Give us real rationale about why you disagree with the thought.

Instead, you didn’t really discuss Gauthier, and said the only reason people are negative against Cutter is because he was drafted by CF. You also attempted to devalue others by calling them hipsters. You are acting like you have some moral superiority here, but all you are doing is using ad hominem.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

Here is my biggest issue with this whole conversation….You haven’t said anything about Gauthier to make anyone change their mind.
You don’t agree with the assessments on Gauthier? Cool. Give us real rationale about why you disagree with the thought.

Instead, you didn’t really discuss Gauthier, and said the only reason people are negative against Cutter is because he was drafted by CF. You also attempted to devalue others by calling them hipsters. You are acting like you have some moral superiority here, but all you are doing is using ad hominem.

Exactly this, I want to see what his assessment is of Gauthier is to figure out what is so wildly different from the majority here.

 

[VladDrag]

Exactly this, I want to see what his assessment is of Gauthier is to figure out what is so wildly different from the majority here.

I was picking up what you were putting down.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

It's important to remember that most of the criticism of Gauthier before the draft was only in the scope of being picked where he was. There are always outliers, but the most common opinion among those that didn't want to take him there was that he was still a perfectly reasonable top 15-20 pick. That can't be calling him a bust or we've lost the plot.

I loathe the way these things get framed. To throw out something that has definitely been said, if you don't agree that the only difference between Bedard and Michkov as prospects is that one plays Center, you're being negative. There's no way to engage with these angles in a reasonable manner.

 

[wankstifier]

I'm assuming you mean tiers purely as prospects here. OHL Carter I could see.

But Carter had the Calder Cup run that changed everything.

Sorta, just trying to make sense of the comp beyond the size, skating/shooting ability.

Was there ever criticism of Carter's shot selection? I feel like they had different "shooter" profiles as prospects.