Rumor: 2023-2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Offseason Edition

[redacted]

To me, the most likely and simplest explanation of JTC's regression after the deadline is simply how much he played. This is a guy who has never played a full 82 games and this year he did. He also averaged 3 more minutes a night than any other season of his career (over 4 more minutes than last year). In total he played 500 more minutes than he played in any other season in his career. Most likely, he just emptied the tank.

That explanation doesn't change the fact that JTC just isn't a top 6 guy... it actually adds to the argument that he isn't IMO.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Man I hope Compher does get a 6 by 6. That would be fantastic for him.

Also who’s the last Avs player that was developed as a prospect internally (I know he wasn’t drafted by Colorado but still became a pro there) who turned out to be a legit good player and ended up walking as a UFA? Must be Staz. Gonna be weird to see that happen.

 

[Pokecheque]

Man I hope Compher does get a 6 by 6. That would be fantastic for him.

Also who’s the last Avs player that was developed as a prospect internally (I know he wasn’t drafted by Colorado but still became a pro there) who turned out to be a legit good player and ended up walking as a UFA? Must be Staz. Gonna be weird to see that happen.

This may be galaxy-braining things a bit but I hope he doesn't. That's too much IMO, he will NEVER live up to that deal and it'll make him the object of fan scorn (more so than here) for years to come. $5 million AAV, the perception that he's mostly a utility guy won't radically change. Anything above that and things shift a bit. Yes, he makes more money but despite the market being different today than it was just a few years ago, way more will be expected.

 

[Avs9296]

If somebody gives Compher 6x6 they need to hand in their resignation immediately.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Yeah $5M is pretty much the going rate for good utility 3rd liners, especially the ones who can play Center.


I think at $5M he'll end up fairly close to what the expectations for him should be... Once you get above that leve, those expectations start rising pretty rapidly. At $5.5M you're gonna have to be a fairly reliable secondary scorer that chips in 45-50 points at least... At $6M+ the expectation is you're a legit 2nd liner that chips in ~60-70 points given the current league scoring rates.

I think JTC can be roughly a $4.5-5M player, especially on a team like Chicago that is starved for decent players... But JTC any higher then that is going to be a big disappointment for what he brings.

 

[CobraAcesS]

To me, the most likely and simplest explanation of JTC's regression after the deadline is simply how much he played. This is a guy who has never played a full 82 games and this year he did. He also averaged 3 more minutes a night than any other season of his career (over 4 more minutes than last year). In total he played 500 more minutes than he played in any other season in his career. Most likely, he just emptied the tank.

That explanation doesn't change the fact that JTC just isn't a top 6 guy... it actually adds to the argument that he isn't IMO.

I hadn't looked it up, but that is pretty much what I thought. From 3C minutes to 2C.

They were basically under staffed, and asked too much of everyone. It's obvious.

 

[redacted]

I hadn't looked it up, but that is pretty much what I thought. From 3C minutes to 2C.

They were basically under staffed, and asked too much of everyone. It's obvious.

More from 3C minutes to 1C minutes. Avs way overplayed a lot of players.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

More from 3C minutes to 1C minutes. Avs way overplayed a lot of players.

Yeah JTC played an absurd amount of hockey this year. Only 6 forwards played more in the NHL. He started looking visibly tired by the deadline.

 

[niwotsblessing]

There are many things to bitch about with JTC... but his history shows he's a near lock for double digit goals. Only in one season has he failed to hit that number and he played 21 games that season. Never crossing 30a, I could get behind that prediction... but he's scoring 12-17 goals next year if he isn't injured.

My understanding is that because of his age he is due to regress. Hard.

And as reminder for stats freaks:

JTC 82 Games - 17 Goals - 20:32 TOI

Malgin 42 Games - 11 Goals - 10:32 TOI

 

[redacted]

My understanding is that because of his age he is due to regress. Hard.

And as reminder for stats freaks:

JTC 82 Games - 17 Goals - 20:32 TOI

Malgin 42 Games - 11 Goals - 10:32 TOI

He’s got a year or two where he may stave off regression or huge regression. When he does regress, we’re talking more 12-13 than 8-9. In his 30s, say 31-32 he’ll fall off.

Per 60 numbers are kinda garbage. They once said Grigorenko was a top 6 guy.

 

[forsbergavs32]

Some team will overpay him (won’t be surprised if it’s in the 5.5m range). Hopefully it’s not us. Good 3rd liner but not worth that kind of money

 

[expatriatedtexan]

It's sad to think that at Hejduk's height he got a 3.9M x 5 contract from the Avalanche, yet here we are talking about JTC making 5M x 5. This my friends, is due to two first world problems: inflation and expansion.

 

[Grigowski]

Some team will overpay him (won’t be surprised if it’s in the 5.5m range). Hopefully it’s not us. Good 3rd liner but not worth that kind of money

This. JTC is as good as gone. No way MacFarland can be that dumb going this route and hand out over 5 mill to a 3rd line center. Or can he?

And this means no disrespect to Compher, but thats what he is. And that role fits him perfectly.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

The more I think about it, the more ok I am with signing ROR if he’s willing to take a 3ish year deal. I’ve spoken out against it a lot because he isn’t close to what he used to be but man he’s still a capable player.

I know his overall points were down but he still scored at a 25 goal pace in St. Louis last year. Then after the trade he scored 20 points in 23 games (playoffs included) for Toronto which proves to me he can produce with good players.

Honestly I don’t know how he’ll age. It’s always a gamble. But intelligent players tend to age better. He’s also proven to be versatile enough to play other roles like he did as a winger for Dutchy in 2013. With Landy gone ROR can be those nice hands, net front presence in front on the PP. He can play C. He can play wing. He can man his own line as a defensive C and he can compliment good players in an offensive role.

The issue is the contract and ROR has proven that he isn’t really the discount type. If we can get him on a 3 x 5.5 I think it’s something you have to explore. Even if he only brings 3rd line caliber 5v5 play I think you do that at that price.

 

[Ararana]

If the Avs don't get a legit 2C, they're done. It's that simple.

Even if ROR doesn't go running back to St Louis (he probably will), he's not a 2C anymore so there's not much of a point. He'd just be a really expensive third liner.

 

[redacted]

ROR is very clearly in the midst of regression. Odds are high he’s going to be worse next year than he was this year and that trend continues. He may have a resurgence year or two at somepoint, but that’s about the best that can be hoped for from him. To me, he’s one of the worst possible solutions. He’s regressing, going to demand money… and more importantly term, and he’s not a great stylistic fit. To me, odds are much higher that his signing would seal the fate rather than correct the course.

 

[Chiarelli]

It's sad to think that at Hejduk's height he got a 3.9M x 5 contract from the Avalanche, yet here we are talking about JTC making 5M x 5. This my friends, is due to two first world problems: inflation and expansion.

I bet if you adjusted it for purchasing power Hejduk made out way better. 4m in early 2000s is probably the equivalent of 7 or 8m in todays dollars

 

[CobraAcesS]

The more I think about it, the more ok I am with signing ROR if he’s willing to take a 3ish year deal. I’ve spoken out against it a lot because he isn’t close to what he used to be but man he’s still a capable player.

I know his overall points were down but he still scored at a 25 goal pace in St. Louis last year. Then after the trade he scored 20 points in 23 games (playoffs included) for Toronto which proves to me he can produce with good players.

Honestly I don’t know how he’ll age. It’s always a gamble. But intelligent players tend to age better. He’s also proven to be versatile enough to play other roles like he did as a winger for Dutchy in 2013. With Landy gone ROR can be those nice hands, net front presence in front on the PP. He can play C. He can play wing. He can man his own line as a defensive C and he can compliment good players in an offensive role.

The issue is the contract and ROR has proven that he isn’t really the discount type. If we can get him on a 3 x 5.5 I think it’s something you have to explore. Even if he only brings 3rd line caliber 5v5 play I think you do that at that price.

So what is the initial role? Top six wing, or 3C? I think 5.5 is it bit much for us for either.

Counting on him as 2C is not a good idea. Could be injuries, or he could have a monster off-season and be fine as a 2C.

Too much risk as "The solution" for 2C.

 

[CobraAcesS]

ROR is very clearly in the midst of regression. Odds are high he’s going to be worse next year than he was this year and that trend continues. He may have a resurgence year or two at somepoint, but that’s about the best that can be hoped for from him. To me, he’s one of the worst possible solutions. He’s regressing, going to demand money… and more importantly term, and he’s not a great stylistic fit. To me, odds are much higher that his signing would seal the fate rather than correct the course.

As far as fit, you think ROR is slower than Soda or Eller? I see them similarly, but I don't have near the skating eye you do.

The point is systematically the team plays fast, but not every player needs to be a burner.

If by some miracle he's cognizant of the 3C role and takes a shorter deal at a reasonable hit it could work, but I think those factors make it a moot point lol.

Or obviously a utility top 6 wing/3C etc

 

[Balthazar]

No ROR or any other UFA. We have to make a trade.

Considering Landy's situation and where the Canucks are, JT Miller makes the most sense and it's not even close.

 

[Avs_19]

I was very vocal about wanting O’Reilly at the TDL. After watching him play in the playoffs, I will be very vocal about not bringing him in this offseason.

 

[redacted]

As far as fit, you think ROR is slower than Soda or Eller? I see them similarly, but I don't have near the skating eye you do.

The point is systematically the team plays fast, but not every player needs to be a burner.

If by some miracle he's cognizant of the 3C role and takes a shorter deal at a reasonable hit it could work, but I think those factors make it a moot point lol.

Or obviously a utility top 6 wing/3C etc

Definitely slower than Eller... I'd say roughly the same to slightly better than Soda was on his 2nd stint.

To me, if you want to get proper value out of the contract that ROR will sign, you have him as a 2nd line wing who helps out a weaker 2C. He should still be a 50+ point guy and probably pop 20-25g with PP1 time. Otherwise he will be a ~40 point 3C who falls to the ~25-30 point range over the course of 4-5 years.

All a moot point though... ROR knows this is his last chance at a bag, he's going to take it. If he was open to a discount, he would have done it with St Louis.

 

[CobraAcesS]

No ROR or any other UFA. We have to make a trade.

Considering Landy's situation and where the Canucks are, JT Miller makes the most sense and it's not even close.

Why more sense than PLD? That is probably my favorite idea.

You really want to watch Miller on this team for the next 8 years? That just doesn't sound like a good idea lol, even with the mindset of the next two to three years being all that matters. Especially since they want real assets back.

I can deal with Landy being on the team in a reduced role as he ages. He's a machine, and I fully believe if he comes back he will have brought himself to the level he expects of himself. Not everyone has his work ethic though.

 

[Mighty Makar]

No ROR or any other UFA. We have to make a trade.

Considering Landy's situation and where the Canucks are, JT Miller makes the most sense and it's not even close.

Yep!

 

[redacted]

To me there are tiers of solutions... and very few of them are ideal.

The ideal ones are the guys like Bennett who are legit 2nd liners, have term beyond a year, and have a reasonable cap hit. There are very few who actually fit here... and they would be absurdly expensive. Avs would have to stomach a big move.

Then you get to the likely 1 year solution guys, but legitimately solve the position for a year. The PLD, Scheif, Lindholm group. Now PLD might jump to a different category if he signed a long-term deal,, but odds are he's going 1 year and cashing in or going to Montreal straight up. These guys have less cost, but still a pretty high premium (1st + top prospect + young roster player).

Another group is the solution with term, but flawed group. This is your Hayes and Kuznetsov group. Players who have shown they can play the role, but are flawed and/or have a bad contract to deal with. If you can get that knocked down though (which rule of thumb $6m total is a 1st and $3m is a 2nd), you can get a reasonableish cap hit and a player for a 2-3 year role for less than the 1 year group.

Then there is the promising and projection group. Guys like Mittelstadt and Lundell... there is a huge variance in these names, but betting on a younger guy who has shown promise, but likely hasn't established. Cost will vary quite a bit and this is one of the riskier options depending on the name.

Lastly there are the guys who are tire plugs for the role. The Henrique and Roslovic sorts who are not really 2Cs, but can play center. This is the sort of guy who the Avs would feel their winger depth would elevate a player. They are cheapish to get, cheapish on contract, and not a great chance that they end up a real solution... but a chance.

Miller is an outlier from each of these... given his contract term, AAV, and age. You're not getting Vancouver to retain for the full term... so you have to accept the contract as is and be willing to move some pieces.