If you go by Friedman and Seravelli, they were saying the cap was going to go up massively this past season and next season too. They've been dead wrong on it a bunch. It stems from the highly optimistic projections that Bettman and Co start with each year. Earlier this season (and last season) when they were on that PR run, I was saying then the math didn't work and people should hold up. They should be holding up again. The numbers are just not there yet. The covid debt still has yet to be paid off, and it might next season... but that isn't even a guarantee with the 6% escrow. Probable at least this go round. Which sets up for future projections. The NHL has already lost one $18m RSO contract (Vegas)... decent chance that that 2 more teams are on the horizon this summer (Penguins probably get saved by NESN given the FSG ties). With all the Bally teams (12) looking at a 10-30% cut in rates once they clear bankruptcy court. We're looking at a couple hundred million when this all plays out. Next year is certainly in the 60-70m range as a floor... could be as high as 120m. 120m is kind of a nebulus number, but that is roughly 1.9m off the cap alone.
When we get the state of the NHL speech, we should get the release of revenues for the season. Last year was over 5.2b (very high 5.2s... not sure if they announced reaching 5.3). Also kind of a nebulus number... 5.2b translates to a 81.25m cap. 5.3b translates to a 82.8m cap. Meaning, the cap last year was roughly in line with the revenues. This year's cap of 82.5 included some growth. The current 83.5m cap needs a mid 5.3b revenues to be supported. Now the rumors are that the revenues will be 5.6b this year... which directly translates to a 87.5m cap. The NHL got full payments from Bally this year in that number. A further complication is the weakening Canadian dollar. Not only is that hurting sales up north, but the NHL biggest TV deal is paid in CAD. That also knocks off ~30m from that deal. Then you have the Leafs as the biggest driver doing all their transactions in CAD.
So even if the owners are paid off next year, the league has to grow by ~100m to support the RSN drop, league attendance can't falter, Canadian dollar has to stabilize or strengthen, and sponsorships have to grow in a lighter economic climate for the cap to just maintain 87.5m. That's not impossible but a challenge right now. To get to 90m... the league needs to be at 5.8b and maintain it.
To me the state of the NHL will be interesting and telling. If they hit 5.6b, they are on course. If they hit 5.7b... odds will be for the 90m cap in 25-26. If they only hit 5.5b, there is trouble ahead.
