Rumor: 2023-2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Offseason Edition

[John Mandalorian]

Drouin Mackinnon Nuke
Lehky Lindholm Rantanen
Sillinger Monahan Compher
Foudy Foudy LOC
Cogs



Eyeball emoji

So to justify his signing, Drouin must be on a line with MacKinnon?

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Oh FECK no to that. No no no no no. Absolutely not. You do not sign lower-tier players to max term. Not ever. That would be a f***ing terrible contract.

I wish JTC well, he's done everything he could to elevate his game, especially in light of the absolutely monstrous burden he was given this year. But he is a bottom six forward who will likely get a sweet deal. And good for him, as a person he more than deserves it. But I don't want the Avs to be the ones to give it to him. The Hawks should be the ones to bring their hometown boy back, and really, given how well he played in United Center over the years, he might actually be of ideal value with any contract they give him.

I mean, your mileage may vary but 3.85M for a very versatile bottom sixer that the head coach loves and adores? They just extended Bednar. They're going to give him tools he can use and not a bunch of bottom sixers that he trusts for no more than 6-10 minutes per game. I'd see if he'd take 28 million over 8, which is 3.5 and I wouldn't go above the 3.85M that was initially offered. But I think that's doable and actually worth it for what JTC does bring. I mean, I'm all for going out and getting Jesper Fast and Erik Haula but those guys are significantly older than JTC, played for teams that made some noise in the playoffs, probably want to resign with their current teams if possible, and just how many guys from the east actually sign in the west with the tougher travel? Some day, I'm going to dig into the numbers on that last part.

If we aren't keeping JTC, according to my math that leaves the bottom six consisting of LOC. Who are the other 5 guys we are signing?

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

- Girard for Mittelstadt + 2024 2nd(BUF)
- Lindholm for 2023 1st + Newhook + Any prospect of Calgary's choice
- Byram 3x$4.5M
- Meyers 1x$0.8M

Lehky - Mack - Mikko
???? - Lindholm - Nuke
???? - Mittelstadt - ????
LOC - Meyers - ????

Toews - Makar
Byram - Manson
???? - Malinski
Hunt - MacDermid

George
Frank

$11.5M left to fill out the rest of the roster. Grab a 4RW and 3LD for a combined $2M, leaves them with $9.5M for two 3rd line wingers and a 2nd line winger. They could go for cheaper 3rd line wingers in the $1.5-2M range and then grab a solid 2nd line winger for ~$5M... Or go for a more balance approach and grab 3 higher end 3rd line/middle 6 wingers for $3-3.5M each.


The way I see it:

4th line winger options: Zach Parise, Corey Perry, ZAR, Tyler Motte, Mattias Janmark

3rd pairing LD options: Calvin De Haan, Connor Mackey, Gavin Bayreuther, Marc Staal

3rd line winger cheaper options: Joel Kiviranta, JVR, Jonathan Drouin, Connor Sheary, Mattias Janmark

3rd line winger expensive options: Evan Rodrigues, Nick Foligno, Jason Zucker, Miles Wood, Pierre Engvall, Erik Haula

2nd line winger options: Ivan Barbashev, Tyler Bertuzzi, Michael Bunting, Patrick Kane, Max Pacioretty, Alex Killorn

 

[Pokecheque]

I mean, your mileage may vary but 3.85M for a very versatile bottom sixer that the head coach loves and adores? They just extended Bednar. They're going to give him tools he can use and not a bunch of bottom sixers that he trusts for no more than 6-10 minutes per game. I'd see if he'd take 28 million over 8, which is 3.5 and I wouldn't go above the 3.85M that was initially offered. But I think that's doable and actually worth it for what JTC does bring. I mean, I'm all for going out and getting Jesper Fast and Erik Haula but those guys are significantly older than JTC, played for teams that made some noise in the playoffs, probably want to resign with their current teams if possible, and just how many guys from the east actually sign in the west with the tougher travel? Some day, I'm going to dig into the numbers on that last part.

If we aren't keeping JTC, according to my math that leaves the bottom six consisting of LOC. Who are the other 5 guys we are signing?

Bednar is not Darryl Sutter, he gets new/young players and oftentimes puts them in a position to succeed more often than not. Obviously JTC is a favorite of his but it's not like if they go out and get a new guy that he just won't trust him.

Haula will likely be too expensive anyway. Kampf, if they can make the math work, would be an upgrade on JTC.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Bednar is not Darryl Sutter, he gets new/young players and oftentimes puts them in a position to succeed more often than not. Obviously JTC is a favorite of his but it's not like if they go out and get a new guy that he just won't trust him.

Haula will likely be too expensive anyway. Kampf, if they can make the math work, would be an upgrade on JTC.

Still an awful lot of vacancies in the bottom six and not a lot of great free agents available.

I mean, we can at least agree that bringing back last years bottom six with very few exceptions (LOC) would be unwise, right?

 

[Pokecheque]

Still an awful lot of vacancies in the bottom six and not a lot of great free agents available.

I mean, we can at least agree that bringing back last years bottom six with very few exceptions (LOC) would be unwise, right?

I couldn't possibly argue with that. The bottom six this year was beyond terrible.

That said, if they gotta make some minor deals then go and do it, but throwing max or near-max term at JTC is a non-starter for me.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

I couldn't possibly argue with that. The bottom six this year was beyond terrible.

That said, if they gotta make some minor deals then go and do it, but throwing max or near-max term at JTC is a non-starter for me.

I can respect that. And to tell you the truth, JTC wasn't in any of my offseason thoughts until I read that comment about breaking it over 8 years this morning. It just gave me something to chew on which I appreciate.

 

[Pokecheque]

I can respect that. And to tell you the truth, JTC wasn't in any of my offseason thoughts until I read that comment about breaking it over 8 years this morning. It just gave me something to chew on which I appreciate.

Fair, but I don't think I've ever seen a bottom six guy signed to max term just to keep his cap hit low and that deal working out. The first one that comes to mind is Calle Jarnkrok and he didn't finish that deal in Nashville. Now, at present, Brandon Tanev is exceeding his current contract AAV value, but of course that too is not the team who originally offered that contract.

But under no circumstances would I give that deal to JTC. Not nearly consistent enough, underlying numbers are mostly meh, and he only attained a career high in points playing ungodly minutes alongside guys like Rantanen and Nichushkin.

 

[Balthazar]

At least with Fatty theres upside, he’s cheap with control and recent development that’s trending very well. There’s none of that with Monahan.

At least with Monahan no one would pencil him at the 2C spot so if he's injured all year who cares. If an experimental 2C like Mittelstadt turns out no better than Newhook or Compher we're f***ed.

 

[Pokecheque]

At least with Monahan no one would pencil him at the 2C spot so if he's injured all year who cares. If an experimental 2C like Mittelstadt turns out no better than Newhook or Compher we're f***ed.

So it's better to have a guy with little to no upside who probably won't even play that much as opposed to a potential impact 2C who might not pan out?

 

[Balthazar]

So it's better to have a guy with little to no upside who probably won't even play that much as opposed to a potential impact 2C who might not pan out?

No it's better to have a real 2C. Was Helm our 2C last year? No? Neither would be Monahan.

 

[Pokecheque]

No it's better to have a real 2C. Was Helm our 2C last year? No? Neither would be Monahan.

I just don't see the upside there. He's abysmally slow now and won't play more than a handful of games. What are you expecting? He's not really suited for a bottom six role, and he's not good enough for a top six role either.

 

[The Abusement Park]

At least with Monahan no one would pencil him at the 2C spot so if he's injured all year who cares. If an experimental 2C like Mittelstadt turns out no better than Newhook or Compher we're f***ed.

I mean with Mittlestadt you’re bringing in a guy who just put up 59 points. That’s 2C production right there and he cost very little.

 

[dahrougem2]

I just don't see the upside there. He's abysmally slow now and won't play more than a handful of games. What are you expecting? He's not really suited for a bottom six role, and he's not good enough for a top six role either.

Yeah, it makes no sense to target Monahan at all.

 

[Balthazar]

I just don't see the upside there. He's abysmally slow now and won't play more than a handful of games. What are you expecting? He's not really suited for a bottom six role, and he's not good enough for a top six role either.

I disagree. I see a lot of upside. The way he played in Montreal he'd have been the 5th best forward on the Avs last year. Legit better than Compher and Erod.

If you can have a guy like that, who's a natural center, for peanuts you should take a chance. Avs have no asset and no cap space, they are in the business of trying to get something out of nothing.

 

[Pokecheque]

I disagree. I see a lot of upside. The way he played in Montreal he'd have been the 5th best forward on the Avs last year. Legit better than Compher and Erod.

If you can have a guy like that, who's a natural center, for peanuts you should take a chance. Avs have no asset and no cap space, they are in the business of trying to get something out of nothing.

Again, it's a moot point if you only get a handful of games out of him. I'd bet almost anything he doesn't make it to the postseason, let alone THROUGH it. He couldn't make it through a postseason when he was in his prime.

Sure, sign him to some cheapo league minimum deal if you want, but that just seems like a total waste of time.

 

[Alienblood]

Drouin Mackinnon Nuke
Lehky Lindholm Rantanen
Sillinger Monahan Compher
Foudy Foudy LOC
Cogs



Eyeball emoji

I don't like the fact that CMac doesn't even.mention Foudy as a chance to.make the team.next year. He only.mentions the NCAA free agents.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

My point was if it's Monahan penciled at 2C and you have JTC on the roster then JTC will end up at 2C.

I absolutely didn’t suggest Monahan as a 2C either. I said I want him for depth. Neither Compher or JTC are viable 2C options imo. Both however are viable options on our third line and can fill in when injuries occur in a bit of an expanded role.

JTC in particular has turned into a monster defensive player. The cap is going to absolutely skyrocket in a couple of years. I’m shocked people want to let him go so easily while at the same time suggesting trading assets for other tweeter 2/3 C’s. Anything over 5M is too much but if we can snag him on some sort of value deal I think you have to.

 

[Balthazar]

JTC in particular has turned into a monster defensive player.

Where?! When?! He got CAVED IN in the last playoffs. JFC! He's not even an average defensive player, let alone a monster.

 

[redacted]

I absolutely didn’t suggest Monahan as a 2C either. I said I want him for depth. Neither Compher or JTC are viable 2C options imo. Both however are viable options on our third line and can fill in when injuries occur in a bit of an expanded role.

JTC in particular has turned into a monster defensive player. The cap is going to absolutely skyrocket in a couple of years. I’m shocked people want to let him go so easily while at the same time suggesting trading assets for other tweeter 2/3 C’s. Anything over 5M is too much but if we can snag him on some sort of value deal I think you have to.

I wouldn't count on that. There is a chance that it does. The bets are the increased revenues from attendance and advertising are going to beat out the lowering escrow percentage (escrow is CBA dictates the escrow goes from 10% to 6% this year) and the RSN broadcast crisis. The RSN piece is huge too... We're talking tens of millions per team if those deals evaporate. Nearly the equivalent of losing the ESPN and TNT deals. It may not happen next year, but within 5 it is happening. The NHL will have to replace that revenue somehow. It likely won't be the full ~500m haircut.. but $200m is pretty likely.

We've heard the cap was supposed to explode every year since 2017... instead it has been about $8.5m total in that time. I might be conservative, but I wouldn't count on over 90m prior to 2026.

Want more evidence on how dire the situation is... the players are offering 2 more games for the cap to go up to the mid 84s for next season. The cap situation is really not good right now.

 

[MacKaRtin]

Fair, but I don't think I've ever seen a bottom six guy signed to max term just to keep his cap hit low and that deal working out.

Nick Paul just did so in Tampa. Jury is still out on that.

I actually asked a couple months ago "who says no if we offer JTC the Nick Paul contract?"

Consensus at that time seemed to be both sides. JTC would want to earn more in a weak UFA year for centers. From club perspective, we're not Tampa and we haven't historically given these type of contracts to non-essential players.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Where?! When?! He got CAVED IN in the last playoffs. JFC! He's not even an average defensive player, let alone a monster.

I mean he’s probably going to get some Selke votes this year but go off lol

 

[Cousin Eddie]

I wouldn't count on that. There is a chance that it does. The bets are the increased revenues from attendance and advertising are going to beat out the lowering escrow percentage (escrow is CBA dictates the escrow goes from 10% to 6% this year) and the RSN broadcast crisis. The RSN piece is huge too... We're talking tens of millions per team if those deals evaporate. Nearly the equivalent of losing the ESPN and TNT deals. It may not happen next year, but within 5 it is happening. The NHL will have to replace that revenue somehow. It likely won't be the full ~500m haircut.. but $200m is pretty likely.

We've heard the cap was supposed to explode every year since 2017... instead it has been about $8.5m total in that time. I might be conservative, but I wouldn't count on over 90m prior to 2026.

Want more evidence on how dire the situation is... the players are offering 2 more games for the cap to go up to the mid 84s for next season. The cap situation is really not good right now.

Yeah it’s not like anything happened since then to cause such a financial detriment. The cap was well on the climb up until the league played a couple thousand hockey games without anybody in the building watching.

More things can happen no doubt and you’re probably more educated on the topic than I am but I trust the Friedman’s and Seravalli’s of the world who have guaranteed a 9M bump in the next 3 seasons at minimum. We just have to see how that’s spread out. I actually kinda hope it’s just 1.5M this year and the biggest jumps come in the following two seasons since we have the Landeskog buffer this year.

 

[Pokecheque]

I absolutely didn’t suggest Monahan as a 2C either. I said I want him for depth. Neither Compher or JTC are viable 2C options imo. Both however are viable options on our third line and can fill in when injuries occur in a bit of an expanded role.

JTC in particular has turned into a monster defensive player. The cap is going to absolutely skyrocket in a couple of years. I’m shocked people want to let him go so easily while at the same time suggesting trading assets for other tweeter 2/3 C’s. Anything over 5M is too much but if we can snag him on some sort of value deal I think you have to.

Ohhhhh I wouldn't say that. He's much better than he was (which is to say he was absolutely horrid earlier in his career) but that still ain't anywhere near "monster" levels.

I will reiterate though that I believe he's seriously upped both his overall defensive game and impact on the PK, and I don't think it's a coincidence both things happened after Helm arrived. And I know, Helm himself has some defensive issues, but JTC was struggling mightily for a year or so when he tried to find a way to limit scoring chances without having to throw himself in front of every opposing shot and risk injury. Helm IMO taught him how (LOC too).

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Ohhhhh I wouldn't say that. He's much better than he was (which is to say he was absolutely horrid earlier in his career) but that still ain't anywhere near "monster" levels.

I will reiterate though that I believe he's seriously upped both his overall defensive game and impact on the PK, and I don't think it's a coincidence both things happened after Helm arrived. And I know, Helm himself has some defensive issues, but JTC was struggling mightily for a year or so when he tried to find a way to limit scoring chances without having to throw himself in front of every opposing shot and risk injury. Helm IMO taught him how (LOC too).

Interesting thought I never considered. You could definitely be onto something.