Rumor: 2023-2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Offseason Edition

[Balthazar]

The meetings with the NHL and NHLPA on the CBA/84 games schedule will be interesting. This is basically the nugget the players can agree to that will potentially get the owners to lessen their stance on escrow and projections. The players will come in with the idea that it will increase HRR around 2.5% which would be enough to payoff the Covid escrow most likely. Now this would leave the window open for making a larger increase without escrow changes, but could extend the debt. So if the PA and NHL agree on that 84 game schedule, it could open the door to a 84-84.5m cap next season. If the NHLPA is willing to continue to eat escrow and maybe even increase it... ~85.5m could be in the cards.

The problem with the whole meetings is that the NHL holds all the cards. The players have to give and give things they haven't typically wanted to give on (84 game and escrow namely).

I know it's not my money and it's easy from the outside but jfc escrow is such a petty subject that they are constantly fighting against. They get the friggin' money back and no NHLer is waiting for that money to buy groceries or pay rent. That's so much better than having no escrow and the NHL having to bill players individually at the end of the season. Imagine the mess.

Feels like there are more important issues the PA should be fighting, like you know, the Arizona situation.

 

[thedoctor]

I mean finding a guy that legitimately plays the position should be the first requirement.

Also the Avs don’t have a ton of assets currently, but they can easily use the assets they have to find a competent enough 2C to compete with. Not someone they have to “Drouin”.

Well, that's the crux of the conversation imo. Who is that guy? The vast majority of the conversation centers on wildly unfeasible options ("go get Lindholm" or "does Nylander play C?") or wildly unrealistic options ("maybe Monahan...?").

I'd really like to see more conversation that isn't just wishful thinking on the asset front. Who actually has a legit 2C that they would part with? There is serious scarcity right now.

 

[Alienblood]

My bad. I think he's a UFA so the Avs won't even need to go the trade route!

On a serious note, how do we feel about Hayton?

Let's get him

 

[thedoctor]

The comparison works much more than you think it would around age. Duchene moved to wing in his last full season here. When he was 25/26. This is what rejuvenated his offense. Very similar to how Arizona discovered the same thing with Schmaltz in the Covid return season. Duchene was moved back to center by Ottawa where it failed until they moved him back to wing. From there he played wing until he got to Nashville. Where for a season and a half they tried to force him at center... which failed again. They accepted defeat and moved him back to wing where his offense came back. It is pretty common for players to be forced at center early in their careers only for teams to realize if they want the most value out of them for their skill sets, they have to put them to wing.

Also very common for centers to thrive at wing when moved there, much less common for wings to move to center and thrive. Schmaltz is a wing. He hasn't played center at a high level since his days in Chicago... and it wasn't a high enough level for Chicago to want to keep him (a team trying to compete at the time). On Arizona, a team in desperate need for any sort of center depth, they couldn't get him to play at a high enough level for them. So much so that they have had Travis Boyd in a top 6 role over Schmaltz. That should be a pretty clear signal of Schmaltz's ability to pivot a line.

The lack of assets is more of a reason to get this right. If they spend the assets for Schmaltz and it fails, the Avs are in a much, much worse position than they were prior to the move. They need to get a center and a guy who plays there consistently. I agree the the Bennett and Matthews types are pipe dreams (meth pipe dreams really). But going after guys like Mittelstadt who have shown ability to play center and produce would be a much wiser sort of decision. You at least get a guy who can play center... now if they can do it well enough on a contending team is a question and risk, but at least you know they can play center. Adding to that, the Avs are potentially losing the 3 and 4Cs as well this year. Leaving a huge void down the middle. Getting sure things in the middle of the ice is a better option than hopes and dreams that Schmaltz can play there since he did 5 seasons ago.

Let's just say we could wave a magic wand and Duchene could be our 2C next year. Would you, even though he's been good, perhaps better at W too?

 

[Alienblood]

Does Hayton really have 2C upside though? I know he’s young but I always felt he was more of a 3C. Crouse would be a great fit obviously.

Yes Hayton is already at 2C level

 

[thedoctor]

My bad. I think he's a UFA so the Avs won't even need to go the trade route!

On a serious note, how do we feel about Hayton?

AZ isn't moving Hayton for anything short of a king's ransom of picks and prospects, which we don't really have to offer.

I just don't understand why anyone thinks he's available in the first place.

 

[henchman21]

I know it's not my money and it's easy from the outside but jfc escrow is such a petty subject that they constantly fighting for. They get the friggin' money back and no NHLer is waiting for that money to buy groceries or pay rent.

Feels like there are more important issues that PA should fight for, like you know, the Arizona situation.

As of today, they don't get any back until the covid debt is paid off. So if it is set at 20% (it won't be), they are basically taking a 20% paycut for this season. Now when the covid debt is paid off, then they will get some back... but most years they don't get it all back (IIRC 11-12 was the last year they got full pay... and actually they got excess that year). In the mid teens when escrow was ~12-14%, the refunds were around ~2-3%, meaning they all got 10% less than their contracts that season. That is what spurred the escrow cap decision on the CBA extension. It a huge deal for them.

Arizona is a thorn in their side, but there isn't much the NHLPA can really do about it. NHL has their own rules on ownership and they get to dictate how that plays out. The NHLPA can scream about it, but there is nothing they can really do other than make noise.

 

[Avs_19]

The meetings with the NHL and NHLPA on the CBA/84 games schedule will be interesting. This is basically the nugget the players can agree to that will potentially get the owners to lessen their stance on escrow and projections. The players will come in with the idea that it will increase HRR around 2.5% which would be enough to payoff the Covid escrow most likely. Now this would leave the window open for making a larger increase without escrow changes, but could extend the debt. So if the PA and NHL agree on that 84 game schedule, it could open the door to a 84-84.5m cap next season. If the NHLPA is willing to continue to eat escrow and maybe even increase it... ~85.5m could be in the cards.

The problem with the whole meetings is that the NHL holds all the cards. The players have to give and give things they haven't typically wanted to give on (84 game and escrow namely).

I'll take a lower cap and the Avs having a tougher time over more games. If anything, these leagues need to cut down but I know it'll never happen. Well, likely not in the NHL but possibly in the NBA at some point.

 

[henchman21]

Let's just say we could wave a magic wand and Duchene could be our 2C next year. Would you, even though he's been good, perhaps better at W too?

No... I absolutely wouldn't. He sucks at center now because he's lost a few steps, he can't play the defensive role, and if you're not feeding him prime shooting opportunities on the power play (where the Avs have better options)... he doesn't score a ton of goals either. Duchene would be another highly paid wing on a team that has too many highly paid wings.

I'll take a lower cap and the Avs having a tougher time over more games. If anything, these leagues need to cut down but I know it'll never happen. Well, likely not in the NHL but possibly in the NBA at some point.

I see the NBA doing it and expanding their postseason beyond the play-in as the compromise. NHL won't because they are a very gate driven league. Any drops in games will dramatically hurt the HRR.

 

[Balthazar]

As of today, they don't get any back until the covid debt is paid off. So if it is set at 20% (it won't be), they are basically taking a 20% paycut for this season. Now when the covid debt is paid off, then they will get some back... but most years they don't get it all back (IIRC 11-12 was the last year they got full pay... and actually they got excess that year). In the mid teens when escrow was ~12-14%, the refunds were around ~2-3%, meaning they all got 10% less than their contracts that season. That is what spurred the escrow cap decision on the CBA extension. It a huge deal for them.

Yea but it's money that they owe to the owners regardless. Escrow works just like taxes, if you pay too much you get some back if you don't pay enough you owe the IRS. It's better to pay too much and get money back than the opposite.

Unless you're telling me that they want full value of their contract regardless of league revenue...if that's the case it's not an escrow issue.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

O'Reilly might just be our best option if he has a bit left in his tank and get carried by nuke and another goal scoring winger.

 

[Chiarelli]

The meetings with the NHL and NHLPA on the CBA/84 games schedule will be interesting. This is basically the nugget the players can agree to that will potentially get the owners to lessen their stance on escrow and projections. The players will come in with the idea that it will increase HRR around 2.5% which would be enough to payoff the Covid escrow most likely. Now this would leave the window open for making a larger increase without escrow changes, but could extend the debt. So if the PA and NHL agree on that 84 game schedule, it could open the door to a 84-84.5m cap next season. If the NHLPA is willing to continue to eat escrow and maybe even increase it... ~85.5m could be in the cards.

The problem with the whole meetings is that the NHL holds all the cards. The players have to give and give things they haven't typically wanted to give on (84 game and escrow namely).

load management is already making it's way into the NHL. If it's a way to increase the cap without the players giving up much else I say go for it.

 

[henchman21]

Yea but it's money that they owe to the owners regardless. Escrow works just like taxes, if you pay too much you get some back if you don't pay enough you owe the IRS. It's better to pay too much and get money back than the opposite.

Unless you're telling me that they want full value of their contract regardless of league revenue...if that's the case it's not an escrow issue.

As an accountant, I'll never pay a dime more than I should to the IRS. In fact, I'll be just a touch short (but under the penalty threshold) so the gov't doesn't get an interest free loan from me.

They want the full value or as close to it as possible... and that is directly an escrow issue due to the mechanisms for HRR and policing the split between owners and players.

 

[Alienblood]

It is the rare peak behind the curtain of what happens in the Avalanche front office and if he had that much responsibility five years ago and subsequently became GM, I'm going to assume he's as or more involved since.

Fact is I don't think much has changed in the Avs front office besides some name plates.

0

The Avs contending depended on a decent deadline. After the CMac horror show the team was done, there just wasn't enough depth to make a run at the cup.

So the Bruins weren't contenders either ? But yes CMac should have done something

 

[henchman21]

load management is already making it's way into the NHL. If it's a way to increase the cap without the players giving up much else I say go for it.

Which is why the NHLPA is floating that carrot. They see it as a way to increase the revenues without much potential harm. NHL has pushed this a few times in the past too simply due to the extra money it would bring. Where it will get tricky is how to split the extra money until the covid debt is paid.

 

[thedoctor]

No... I absolutely wouldn't. He sucks at center now because he's lost a few steps, he can't play the defensive role, and if you're not feeding him prime shooting opportunities on the power play (where the Avs have better options)... he doesn't score a ton of goals either. Duchene would be another highly paid wing on a team that has too many highly paid wings.

Well, thanks for the opinion, I guess. I think we're in fundamentally different places on what is a realistic cost and acceptable performance for a 2C, and that's ok.

 

[John Mandalorian]

Going by discussion, the softest targets appear to be Kuznetzov and PLD.

Kuznetzov = 2023 1st
PLD = 2023 1st + Girard + Newhook

Who else that's viable?

 

[thedoctor]

O'Reilly might just be our best option if he has a bit left in his tank and get carried by nuke and another goal scoring winger.

There's so much bad blood it's just hard to imagine, and I'm not sure if Bednar would sign on for such a slow player. But if the sides could get over the past and work out a solid deal, I'd love it.

 

[Balthazar]

Stay away from ROR unless he wants a 1 year deal (and we all know he doesn't want that).

 

[henchman21]

O'Reilly might just be our best option if he has a bit left in his tank and get carried by nuke and another goal scoring winger.

ROR is way too over the hill. He had spurts in the playoffs, but you could see he just didn't have much in the tank left. Outside of all the external things, ROR is just too old and slow at this point.

Domi is probably the best UFA center available... and he's pretty flawed. Plus he's likely to re-sign in Dallas with how he has fit there.

Avs will probably go with one trade and one bargain signing to address the centers. The bargain guys will be someone like Monahan/Toews/Staal/Bones for a one year, Cup run sort of deal. If the trade is cheap enough cap wise, I imagine they'll try to grab another UFA who is a versatile sort... a Haula/ERod/Kampf/Accari sort of guy. A player who can play center if called upon, but will really be there as a failsafe for Newhook struggles.

 

[Balthazar]

ROR is way too over the hill. He had spurts in the playoffs, but you could see he just didn't have much in the tank left. Outside of all the external things, ROR is just too old and slow at this point.

Domi is probably the best UFA center available... and he's pretty flawed. Plus he's likely to re-sign in Dallas with how he has fit there.

Avs will probably go with one trade and one bargain signing to address the centers. The bargain guys will be someone like Monahan/Toews/Staal/Bones for a one year, Cup run sort of deal. If the trade is cheap enough cap wise, I imagine they'll try to grab another UFA who is a versatile sort... a Haula/ERod/Kampf/Accari sort of guy. A player who can play center if called upon, but will really be there as a failsafe for Newhook struggles.

Don't discard a Nylander/Toews swap just yet!

 

[henchman21]

Don't discard a Nylander/Toews swap just yet!

 

[thedoctor]

Going by discussion, the softest targets appear to be Kuznetzov and PLD.

Kuznetzov = 2023 1st
PLD = 2023 1st + Girard + Newhook

Who else that's viable?

If you mean these players are soft as hockey players, then yeah, they are soft.

If you mean they are soft targets as in realistic targets, I'm not sure. PLD seems dead set on playing in MTL. Trading Kuzy seems to be against what the Caps promised Ovy, but they certainly should be looking to rebuild and he's a good asset to trade rn. if he's available, he's a good target.

But the Caps have not accepted the rebuild imo, and therefore I don't think he's truly a "soft target." If he was available and in our reach, we'd probably have acquired him at the trade deadline.

 

[henchman21]

If you mean these players are soft as hockey players, then yeah, they are soft.

If you mean they are soft targets as in realistic targets, I'm not sure. PLD seems dead set on playing in MTL. Trading Kuzy seems to be against what the Caps promised Ovy, but they certainly should be looking to rebuild and he's a good asset to trade rn. if he's available, he's a good target.

But the Caps have not accepted the rebuild imo, and therefore I don't think he's truly a "soft target." If he was available and in our reach, we'd probably have acquired him at the trade deadline.

Kuznetsov has been on the market for 2+ years now. He's available and wouldn't require an enormous haul. Difficulty is the cap with him.

 

[John Mandalorian]

If you mean these players are soft as hockey players, then yeah, they are soft.

If you mean they are soft targets as in realistic targets, I'm not sure. PLD seems dead set on playing in MTL. Trading Kuzy seems to be against what the Caps promised Ovy, but they certainly should be looking to rebuild and he's a good asset to trade rn. if he's available, he's a good target.

But the Caps have not accepted the rebuild imo, and therefore I don't think he's truly a "soft target." If he was available and in our reach, we'd probably have acquired him at the trade deadline.

PLD to Montreal isn't a certainty. If they draft a C, they'll have the drafted C, Dach, and Suzuki. They might have learned from Toronto's situation with Tavares.

It's also been reported he's open to other places. Whether that's lipservice just to get out of Winnipeg, who knows?