Rumor: 2023-2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Offseason Edition

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henchman21

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Feb 24, 2012
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Yeah, I dont think it was much of a discount by any means... But IMO it was a small one.

If he could get $49M over 7 years and chose to stay with the Avs for the same $49M over 8 years instead, its a small discount. But it doesn't really matter.

Landy is the one who took a sizable discount IMO. If he had went to the market, a PPG+ winger with the two-way ability and leadership qualities he brings... He would have absolutely gotten $9M from someone on a max term deal.


I also think Mackinnon would get more on the open market. Yeah he's the most paid player in the league so its kind of hard to argue he took a discount... But he had the numbers to get $14M for sure and quite frankly a Top 3 Center in the league hitting free agency would probably bring some teams awfully close to a max contract.


Give it another ~3 years for Matthews, Leon, and McDavid to sign their next deals and Mack will look ~$2-3M underpaid yet again.
They are are close enough to market, and once you lose that rfa pay advantage with your core… you better have cheap ELC talent coming up. There really isn’t another way to pull together enough excess contract value with out a bunch of cheap ELC or rfa deals. Yeah you can overpay a ton to get some excess value, but after 3-4-5 of those deals, you start running out of assets to pull them off.
 
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Pierce Hawthorne

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They are are close enough to market, and once you lose that rfa pay advantage with your core… you better have cheap ELC talent coming up. There really isn’t another way to pull together enough excess contract value with out a bunch of cheap ELC or rfa deals. Yeah you can overpay a ton to get some excess value, but after 3-4-5 of those deals, you start running out of assets to pull them off.

Oh yeah no argument from me on that one. Whether they took discounts or not doesn't really matter. They're making enough that our cap space has essentially run out, and we aren't getting the ELC contributions or the 2nd contract contributions from anybody outside of LOC at this point which is a huge reason why our depth has been completely killed.

Plus, despite the meme around here... Overpaying depth guys by 250k+ every single summer absolutely adds up and takes away from the cap space we have. Helm and Cogs both shouldn't have gotten deals north of $1M and really if everybody wanted to run it back and go for it again like they all said, Helm and Cogs should have been league minimum $750k deals. Manson shouldn't have gotten north of $4M(Shouldn't have been signed in the 1st place but anyway)... Right away from those 3 guys we lost $1.5M in cap space last summer on unnecessary overpays.


CMac simply needs to be way smarter this time around. If you bring Cogs back, its a league minimum deal. If not, you sign a Zach Parise or Mattias Janmark or one of those guys for league minimum. If Ben Meyers is gonna be the 4C next year, he gets an $800k 1 way deal. Etc. etc. Cannot overpay for depth any more, especially not when it wasn't even high quality depth pieces.
 

GirardSpinorama

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Oh yeah no argument from me on that one. Whether they took discounts or not doesn't really matter. They're making enough that our cap space has essentially run out, and we aren't getting the ELC contributions or the 2nd contract contributions from anybody outside of LOC at this point which is a huge reason why our depth has been completely killed.

Plus, despite the meme around here... Overpaying depth guys by 250k+ every single summer absolutely adds up and takes away from the cap space we have. Helm and Cogs both shouldn't have gotten deals north of $1M and really if everybody wanted to run it back and go for it again like they all said, Helm and Cogs should have been league minimum $750k deals. Manson shouldn't have gotten north of $4M(Shouldn't have been signed in the 1st place but anyway)... Right away from those 3 guys we lost $1.5M in cap space last summer on unnecessary overpays.


CMac simply needs to be way smarter this time around. If you bring Cogs back, its a league minimum deal. If not, you sign a Zach Parise or Mattias Janmark or one of those guys for league minimum. If Ben Meyers is gonna be the 4C next year, he gets an $800k 1 way deal. Etc. etc. Cannot overpay for depth any more, especially not when it wasn't even high quality depth pieces.

Agreed. Not that it mattered anyways, we essentially left 5+M on the table with how badly we handled the Landeskog situation.
 
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Northern Avs Fan

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I’ve been looking over the cap today and I have a hard time seeing how you improve the forward group without trading a defenceman. Landeksog’s cap hit doesn’t give you enough cap space unless you’re getting a team to retain on a top-6 forward and you’re getting one for like $2.5/3M.

The lineup below leaves the Avs with $14M in cap space. That’s including a 13th forward and 7th defenceman. I’ve also given Byram a $3.5M dollar raise in this scenario.

Now if you can save let’s say $3-4M in cap space by moving a D and Francouz and bring in budget replacements, you have around $17M in cap space. IMO, that’s enough space to make some actual improvements to the top-9.

Lehkonen - MacKinnon - Nichushkin
XX - XX - Rantanen
XX - XX- LOC
XX - Meyers - Foudy


Toews - Makar
Byram - Manson
Girard - XX

Georgiev
Francouz
 
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Bender

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I’ve been looking over the cap today and I have a hard time seeing how you improve the forward group without trading a defenceman. Landeksog’s cap hit doesn’t give you enough cap space unless you’re getting a team to retain on a top-6 forward and you’re getting one for like $2.5/3M.

The lineup below leaves the Avs with $14M in cap space. That’s including a 13th forward and 7th defenceman. I’ve also given Byram a $3.5M dollar raise in this scenario.

Now if you can save let’s say $3-4M in cap space by moving a D and Francouz and bring in budget replacements, you have around $17M in cap space. IMO, that’s enough space to make some actual improvements to the top-9.

Lehkonen - MacKinnon - Nichushkin
XX - XX - Rantanen
XX - XX- LOC
XX - Meyers - Foudy


Toews - Makar
Byram - Manson
Girard - XX

Georgiev
Francouz
For the money those guys will be making, you're better off getting cheap vets on 1 year deals and having those youngsters available for call-ups rather than banking on those guys making an impact in the lineup. The $$$ difference is negligible when you consider Myers is at $912K and Foudy $847K versus a guy like say Danton Heinen for example who is coming off a 1 year - $1M contract.

I hope the Avs see it that way as well because if you don't and your youngsters go down to injury, who you bringing up then ?
 

lionsDen

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Jan 26, 2022
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I remember last year there was a large contingent that thought nuke was gonna only in the 4’s and since he had a great year it might be in the fives…and people mocked me for saying he’d get 6 plus. It still makes me laugh

Haha

Ha
 

AllAboutAvs

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Mack's 12.6M X 8 is the same as 14.4M X 7 on the open market.

"Discount"
You can't ignore what the player would earn in the 8th year if he took the 7-yr contract.

If Nuke took the 8-yr deal for 49M. If he took the 7-yr deal for the same 49M and then get another 1-yr contract of let's say 3M that's a total of 52M over the 8 years. That's a 3M discount over 8 years or 375K/yr. Not a big discount but a discount nonetheless.

Same for Mack. He could easily get a 1-yr 6M contract for that 8th year. That's a 6M discount over 8 years or 750K/yr. Again not a big discount but a discount nonetheless.

With the cap most likely going up quite a bit over the next 7 years these 8th year contracts I used for them are very, very conservative I would say. Furthermore these guys would still be 34 an 35 yr old when they sign these new contracts so a better chance to be longer multi-yrs contract and at a higher AAV which would give them more money at the end versus the most likely one or two yr deals at lower AAV if they took the 8 yr deals. That also increases the discount.
 
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henchman21

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Feb 24, 2012
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You can't ignore what the player would earn in the 8th year if he took the 7-yr contract.

If Nuke took the 8-yr deal for 49M. If he took the 7-yr deal for the same 49M and then get another 1-yr contract of let's say 3M that's a total of 52M over the 8 years. That's a 3M discount over 8 years or 375K/yr. Not a big discount but a discount nonetheless.

Same for Mack. He could easily get a 1-yr 6M contract for that 8th year. That's a 6M discount over 8 years or 750K/yr. Again not a big discount but a discount nonetheless.

With the cap most likely going up quite a bit over the next 7 years these 8th year contracts I used for them are very, very conservative I would say. Furthermore these guys would still be 34 an 35 yr old when they sign these new contracts so a better chance to be longer multi-yrs contract and at a higher AAV which would give them more money at the end versus the most likely one or two yr deals at lower AAV if they took the 8 yr deals. That also increases the discount.
To an extent… sure. Zero guarantee though these players get an 8th year. Just look at Landy now…
 
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AllAboutAvs

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To an extent… sure. Zero guarantee though these players get an 8th year. Just look at Landy now…
But they could. Nuke and Mack will be 35 and 36 respectively when they entered that 8th year. Still young enough for Nuke and as for Mack he is a health freak so it is very possible.
 

henchman21

Mr. Meeseeks
Feb 24, 2012
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But they could. Nuke and Mack will be 35 and 36 respectively when they entered that 8th year. Still young enough for Nuke and as for Mack he is a health freak so it is very possible.
Could is not certain… many, many good players have had their games go prior to that age. Counting on that is a risk.
 

AllAboutAvs

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Could is not certain… many, many good players have had their games go prior to that age. Counting on that is a risk.
Yes and I assumed that is why a lot of them would take the 8-yr contract but that doesn't mean that 8th year should be discarded when comparing the two contracts. That 8th year still exists. Giroux was not far from 35 when he signed a 3-yr 6.5M AAV.
 

henchman21

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Feb 24, 2012
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Yes and I assumed that is why a lot of them would take the 8-yr contract but that doesn't mean that 8th year should be discarded when comparing the two contracts. That 8th year still exists. Giroux was not far from 35 when he signed a 3-yr 6.5M AAV.
I’m not saying it should be discounted completely, but also shouldn’t be given full value. Somewhere in between. My accountant brain says time value of money it :laugh:

No matter how you slice it, if there were discounts… they aren’t much. Certainly not enough to make a huge difference cap wise.

People should just accept now that the Avs will likely f***ing suck during MacKinnon's last few contractual years.

This has current-day SJ Sharks written all over it. That's why the Avs need to maximize the next ~4 years and go for it every. Single. Season.
Yeah… just focus on the next two seasons and anything after that is gravy. After 4/5 just accept being a bottom 10 team.
 

AllAboutAvs

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I’m not saying it should be discounted completely, but also shouldn’t be given full value. Somewhere in between. My accountant brain says time value of money it :laugh:

No matter how you slice it, if there were discounts… they aren’t much. Certainly not enough to make a huge difference cap wise.


Yeah… just focus on the next two seasons and anything after that is gravy. After 4/5 just accept being a bottom 10 team.
I never said the 8th year should be given full value. just that they shouldn't be discarded. Quite a few players have gotten contracts late in their 34th year or 35+ that would easily compare to a 3M contract after 7 years of increase in cap.

As I said before at least 375K for Nuke, arguably at least 1M for Mack, they are not that small when considering a lot of people here (including you ;)) complain that the Avs overpay by 250K on a lot of their players. They just reduced those AAV by ~350K and ~1M. That adds up.
 

henchman21

Mr. Meeseeks
Feb 24, 2012
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I never said the 8th year should be given full value. just that they shouldn't be discarded. Quite a few players have gotten contracts late in their 34th year or 35+ that would easily compare to a 3M contract after 7 years of increase in cap.

As I said before at least 375K for Nuke, arguably at least 1M for Mack, they are not that small when considering a lot of people here (including you ;)) complain that the Avs overpay by 250K on a lot of their players. They just reduced those AAV by ~350K and ~1M. That adds up.
Pretty big difference on overpaying 250k on a 1m player multiple times over and then extending that to 500-750k on Manson and Frank. Just a huge percentage difference. Avs have overpaid for depth a lot… and it hurts them. Getting a minor amount on the core helps, but the excess value just isn’t the 6m it was for MacK. Doesn’t help when you have more than the ‘discount’ taken by Nuke and MacK up by Frank and Manson.
 
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AllAboutAvs

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Pretty big difference on overpaying 250k on a 1m player multiple times over and then extending that to 500-750k on Manson and Frank. Just a huge percentage difference. Avs have overpaid for depth a lot… and it hurts them. Getting a minor amount on the core helps, but the excess value just isn’t the 6m it was for MacK. Doesn’t help when you have more than the ‘discount’ taken by Nuke and MacK up by Frank and Manson.
You are right. The percentage is different. Just saying everything counts when you are up against the cap. As I said before they are small discounts but discounts nonetheless.
 

henchman21

Mr. Meeseeks
Feb 24, 2012
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You are right. The percentage is different. Just saying everything counts when you are up against the cap. As I said before they are small discounts but discounts nonetheless.
I’d say it is debatable on some, and small on the others. In the end, it doesn’t make a big difference in the cap situation for the Avs. You get the core locked up and go from there with the budget you have. If they keep making mistakes like Manson, Helm, Frank… any discount that is there is wasted.
 

AllAboutAvs

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I’d say it is debatable on some, and small on the others. In the end, it doesn’t make a big difference in the cap situation for the Avs. You get the core locked up and go from there with the budget you have. If they keep making mistakes like Manson, Helm, Frank… any discount that is there is wasted.
Again I don't disagree but that was not the point. I was responding to a post saying one contract = the other with no discount. The same amount of money does not mean there isn't a discount.
 
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