Rumor: 2023-2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Off-season is in full swing

[Avaholic29]

Girard + Behrens for Valimaki + Crouse

 

[Mighty Makar]

Girard + Behrens for Valimaki + Crouse

Crouse will take the C from Bo!

 

[PAZ]

Yeah but let’s say you fill your roster right now and have zero cap space at the deadline, you have to trade someone from the roster which is something you don’t want to do at the trade deadline, but if you have some cap space, you can just trade a pick or prospect and get the player you want

You're right they may have to trade someone on the roster.

But that's not an issue. You sign a player if they have potential to improve the roster now, and if they don't work out you trade them at the TDL for an upgrade. If they do work out, then you probably don't need an upgrade and saved some assets. We've seen teams happy to take expiring contracts and 50% retention to get a deal done the past few years.

Let's say Drouin doesn't work out, you trade him at the TDL and replace him with a better player. I may be wrong, but I don't think we can accrue cap space anyways since Landy is on LTIR. We'll still be able to make moves, but having 500k-1 mil in cap space at the start of the season doesn't matter nearly as much.

 

[BobRossColton]

Gave Colton 5x3.5

 

[myperbixhurts]

You're right they may have to trade someone on the roster.

But that's not an issue. You sign a player if they have potential to improve the roster now, and if they don't work out you trade them at the TDL for an upgrade. If they do work out, then you probably don't need an upgrade and saved some assets. We've seen teams happy to take expiring contracts and 50% retention to get a deal done the past few years.

Let's say Drouin doesn't work out, you trade him at the TDL and replace him with a better player. I may be wrong, but I don't think we can accrue cap space anyways since Landy is on LTIR. We'll still be able to make moves, but having 500k-1 mil in cap space at the start of the season doesn't matter nearly as much.

I get what you saying, but if your option is to trade Drouin to upgrade that position because Drouin wasn’t good, he only makes 800K. What are you gonna get for 800K to upgrade the top 6 wing position when there is no other cap space? You either have to trade someone else from the roster or your hands are pretty much tied up. That’s why it’s best to keep the remaining cap space for trade deadline

 

[PAZ]

I get what you saying, but if your option is to trade Drouin to upgrade that position because Drouin wasn’t good, he only makes 800K. What are you gonna get for 800K to upgrade the top 6 wing position when there is no other cap space? You either have to trade someone else from the roster or your hands are pretty much tied up. That’s why it’s best to keep the remaining cap space for trade deadline

Edit: Oh jk, I forgot to enable LTIR

It wouldn't the easiest, but I wouldn't be surprised if a guy like Wood/Manson goes on LTIR near the TDL until the playoffs, which gives us more room to work with. The Avs always have injuries - Nuke could've easily waited to come back in the playoffs instead of the regular season.

 

[myperbixhurts]

Edit: Oh jk, I forgot to enable LTIR

But I wouldn't be surprised if a guy like Wood/Manson goes on LTIR at the TDL until the playoffs, which gives us more room to work with. The Avs always have injuries

I mean Ducks have to agree to that trade. Don’t think Drouin alone will do if he had a bad season. Gotta give up a pick or something else. Looking at that free agent list, there is just nothing there. Just get Colton and Meyers signed, and go with the current roster until the deadline then there will be more options and cap space to make a trade or two to get players that fit your needs

 

[PAZ]

I mean Ducks have to agree to that trade. Don’t think Drouin alone will do if he had a bad season. Gotta give up a pick or something else. Looking at that free agent list, there is just nothing there. Just get Colton and Meyers signed, and go with the current roster until the deadline then there will be more options and cap space to make a trade or two to get players that fit your needs

Well of course we'd have to give up assets, that's a given regardless of whether we sign another player now or stand pat. But why not take a gamble at free agency and hope it works out? As long as it's an expiring contract, it won't cost anything to dump. The player's available at next year's TDL is actually pretty ugly.

I think where we disagree is the free agent list.

Guys like Suter, Nosek, Tatar, Sundqvist would be a clear upgrade to the bottom 6 and would help with injuries. Other guys that are a bit more risky like Toews, Donskoi, Puljarjavi, Gurianov, etc. are worth the gamble if it's under $1 mil. It literally makes zero difference since you can dump them in the minors and not have an impact on the cap.

Since we're not accruing cap space, it doesn't matter if the guy we call up once injuries hit costs $1 mil or 800k, as long as they fit under the cap.

Edit: I guess my question would be - would you rather see a player like Donskoi, Pujarjavi, Gurianov, etc. mid-season or Tufte, Wagner, etc.

 

[sethro109]

I really don't think Colton will sign a multi year contract for anything less than $4.2 a season. He and his agent know that the cap is going up and will definitely calculate that into any deal we offer him. In a way, knowledge of the cap going up by at least 4 million kinda screws us here.

 

[McMetal]

I definitely wouldn't mind Pius Suter cheap as an Erod replacement. Yeah he's bad defensively but so was Erod, what matters is that he has some scoring pop and can provide some extra goals in the top 9, and maybe even move up the lineup if Drouin flames out completely. As an insurance piece I think he's probably the best remaining option.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I definitely wouldn't mind Pius Suter cheap as an Erod replacement. Yeah he's bad defensively but so was Erod, what matters is that he has some scoring pop and can provide some extra goals in the top 9, and maybe even move up the lineup if Drouin flames out completely. As an insurance piece I think he's probably the best remaining option.

I think Tatar would still be better.

Tbh if we got Suter I'd run him as the 4C to start. I wouldn't say he's bad defensively either, and he can kill penalties which we kind of need a C that can do that at the moment.

I'd put Suter at 4C and move LOC up onto the 3rd line:


Drouin - Mack - Nuke
Lehky - RyJo - Mikko
Wood - Colton - LOC
Cogs - Suter - Olofsson/Meyers


That 3rd line would be absolute hell for teams to play against. What I like most about Suter is he can easily move to 3C as well, giving you options to shift Colton up into the Top 6 if/when needed.

I'd still prefer to get both Suter and Tatar though quite frankly. IMO an ideal opening day lineup has both Olofsson and Meyers in the AHL as our first callup choices. Opening day lineup of:


Drouin - Mack - Nuke
Lehky - RyJo - Mikko
Wood - Colton - Tatar
Cogs - Suter - LOC

 

[McMetal]

I think Tatar would still be better.

Tbh if we got Suter I'd run him as the 4C to start. I wouldn't say he's bad defensively either, and he can kill penalties which we kind of need a C that can do that at the moment.

I'd put Suter at 4C and move LOC up onto the 3rd line:


Drouin - Mack - Nuke
Lehky - RyJo - Mikko
Wood - Colton - LOC
Cogs - Suter - Olofsson/Meyers


That 3rd line would be absolute hell for teams to play against. What I like most about Suter is he can easily move to 3C as well, giving you options to shift Colton up into the Top 6 if/when needed.

I'd still prefer to get both Suter and Tatar though quite frankly. IMO an ideal opening day lineup has both Olofsson and Meyers in the AHL as our first callup choices. Opening day lineup of:


Drouin - Mack - Nuke
Lehky - RyJo - Mikko
Wood - Colton - Tatar
Cogs - Suter - LOC

The problem with Tatar is that he is always dogshit in the playoffs. He's got 13 points in 52 career postseason games for a .25 PPG, and that's just the games he wasn't scratched in. JT Compher, for comparison, has 29 points in 70 playoff games, .41 PPG, and has never been a healthy scratch. Even Cogliano has a better playoff PPG rate, and he's never been a guy you would count on for secondary scoring. He had a higher PPG in the 2022 playoffs with the Avs as a 35 year old 4th liner than Tatar has had his entire career.

For a guy who is a one-dimensional scorer, Tatar brings nothing to the table in the most important time of the year. He's not the kind of player you want on a team with Cup aspirations.

 

[redacted]

Again, thats just a total guess on my part.

I was thinking more along the lines of Dubois at the draft and Larkin at the deadline.

The Jets had just finished 19th, and there was already plenty of rumors stirring around him. Mostly to the Habs, obviously. But there was enough buzz about him wanting out that he had to publicly come out and say that he hadn't requested a trade.
The Jets had 5 picks in first 100 of that draft, the Avs only had 193 and 225, which is extremely abnormal for any team.
We just saw Newhook return a late first and early second, and his value was arguably higher at the time than it is now. I could see the framework of a Girard + Newhook for Dubois + pick trade being the general idea. Again, this is all just guesswork.

Regarding Larkin, I actually think that his deadline contract signing is good evidence of the fact that he was in play.
The way I see it, the Red Wings spent the year leading up to the deadline exploring their options with Larkin. As a rebuilding team with a high caliber captain that is going to go UFA in a few months, you can't risk losing him for nothing. They're definitely still trying to sign him during this. But any GM would want a plan B.
Say the deadline is coming up, and it becomes clear that the potential deal you've been working on, accounting for, and scouting for all season can't go because Larkin's contract demands are too much for the Avs. After seeing Gaudreau get 69m, he probably figures he can get around 70m on the open market. Do you panic sell in a new deadline deal? Do you ride out the rest of the season and hope that negotiations change before he goes to market? Or do you bite the bullet and give him the contract that he wants?

Additionally, the Red Wings were scouting the Avs heavily in the lead up to the deadline. In fact, they had scouts in Denver with the trade deadline less than a week away. That fact alone leads me to believe it's at least a possibility.

Wings/Avs discussions were not about Larkin.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Glad we aren't paying him that.



Engels: I’d estimate Alex Newhook is probably looking at a deal that will pay him $3-4 million per season.

It’s because of term. He would have been around 2x2 here. I expect a 4 year deal to be announced in the near future for him in Montreal.

 

[Tommy Shelby]

Wings/Avs discussions were not about Larkin.

My hope is that they were about Rasmussen, but knowing the Avs it was probably Fabbri because we love our IR stars

 

[CobraAcesS]

Colton >= Compher

- Colton will have a bigger impact for this team away from the puck then JTC ever did, as someone who has always praised JTCs game away from the puck. Colton will just be better, better pest, better two way play, much better forechecker, much better effort more consistently. And I highly suspect if Colton gets even close to the same amount of usage as Compher got for us, he will score way more goals and probably produce similar points. If Colton gets 15+ minutes at 5 on 5 a night and 20 minutes a game of ice time, I'd bet he scored 25G and 50+ points this year for us.


Drouin >= Newhook

- Again, every year of Drouins career in the NHL his PPG has been higher then Newhooks. Given that Newhook provides absolutely nothing for us away from the puck(Soft, poor forechecker, couldn't win board battles, not good defensively, etc.) even if Drouin ends up being the exact same in that regard(Which realistically there's a good chance that ends up the case, though not guaranteed either), he very likely will at least be a 40-45 point player for us which is better then Newhook ever provided us. Personally I really do think a 55-60 point seaason and some level of engagement away from the puck is going to happen with Drouin this year and he's going to end up being the best UFA signing for value of the summer.


Wood =< Rodrigues

- This is probably one matchup where we breakeven or get slightly worse. Though I do think Woods style of play will prove a better fit for our bottom 6. I highly doubt he's able to replicate the kind of ~40 point production we got from Rodrigues. I think realistically a good year from Wood would be ~30-35 points. If we can get 30+ points with his forechecking game being what it used to be again for us, I think that's a fair swap to ERod. If we dont get that production, probably a small loss here.


RyJo >> Literally nobody

- We literally dont have a comparable to RyJo on the roster from last year. We went the entire season without a legit 2C. So RyJo is a significant upgrade over literally nobody. Even if he ends up just being a 45 point player again for us, that's an upgrade over nothing. I gues you could say Lars Eller is the comparison here(LOL). Again, even if that is the comp, huge upgrade. And personally I think RyJo will be a 50-60 guy again with a small chance of even hitting 60-70. Especially if Mikko is on his wing, he's never played with a goal scorer that good before. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see him hit 20G and 45-50 Assists with Lehky and Mikko on his wings.


Jack Johnson > Erik Johnson

As sad as it is to say, this is very likely true. EJ was clearly on a rapid breakdown for us last year, and while JMFJ certainly isn't anything to right home about either. I think he at least last year proved to be the far more steady and reliable player of the two Johnsons for us. Now, both guys are old so its certainly possible JJ ends up breaking down quickly again next year, but I'd put money on him being an upgrade over EJ for us next year.




Then you've got wildcards basically. What can Sam Malinski potentially do when he gets action as that 3rd pairing PMD for us. I really think he's going to fit the style we play and the way Bednar asks his Dmen to play like a glove and will be great for us. But we do have to wait and see. Have our pro scouts "done it again" with Frederic Olofsson? Will they have churned out another solid bottom 6 forward out of nothing like they have before?


And, I still think they have 1 more move left in the tank. I think they'll grab a Top 9 forward for ~$1.5-2M once the dust has settled on all the trades/RFA signings around the league that needs to be made, Ross gets signed for us, and there's still ~9-10 UFA forwards sitting waiting on a contract.


My money is on that forward being Tatar. Which yes Tatar's playoff numbers are concerning, but the regular season is still very important for us and Tatar would be a phenomenal add to round out the Top 9 and give a much needed offensive threat to go along with Ross. Although I also wouldn't hate seeing them grab someone that can play Center, since at some point this year I want Ross to get a good look on Mackinnons wing, and when that happens they need a Center that can shift to 3C without turning the 3rd line into a weakness again. A few names that are still available that obviously make sense for such a role would be Toews, Suter, Sundqvist, Nosek, and Boqvist.


But ultimately yeah. I think even if the Avs dont make another move(Which I doubt), I think we're significant better prepared for this year then last year. Most importantly by far, we have real Center depth. JT2C is no more, and if an injury happens to RyJo, Ross Colton steps into the 2C spot and likely doesn't miss a beat. If Mack gets hurt while you certainly cant replace him, RyJo gives you a better shot at keeping our heads above water then JTC did.


Basically nothing, but here's the thing. The guy he's replacing is Alex Newhook.

What did Newhook do if/when he wasn't putting up points? And every year of Drouins career, his PPG rate has been higher then both of Newhooks seasons with us. So at this point I at least trust Drouin to produce more offensively then Newhook did for us, even if it isn't much and he doesn't provide anything else just like Newhook.

My posts have all been broken up, but it is basically very easy to see the organizational chart on the players, and who makes sense to move where if injuries happen or Drouin struggles.

Like you, Ryjo is nor really a worry for me. He's either as productive as JT, or throws up a 70 point season. He has a legit high floor.

Colton will get time up there too, even if Drouin blows the doors off. Because he'll probably deal with some injuries at the very least. They have to get Colton locked in long term. Have to IMO lol.

I agree on the center/utility player, but I'm also worried about the D with Manson. I guess it's going to have to play out though to see if it's a need. I would like to see them add Foote for cheap if possible.

In the end though, as long as they lock Colton down for a bit. Those peripheral roster moves are much easier level of trades to address in season.

Our top 3 centers and top line wings are locked in, and our top four D are solid, so are the goalies. Definitely already a better team than last year.

 

[Balthazar]

I didn't remember that Girard has a M-NTC kicking in next summer...9 teams no trade list. That could complicate things if they plan on keeping Toews.

Especially for someone like Girard with a limited number of teams interested in small defensemen.

With his contract (not every team wants that), his size and a NMC he could become very hard or nearly impossible to trade.

9 teams is probably enough to cover all the teams that can afford him and would actually want him.

 

[Metallo]

I didn't remember that Girard has a M-NTC kicking in next summer...9 teams no trade list. That could complicate things if they plan on keeping Toews.

Especially for someone like Girard with a limited number of teams interested in small defensemen.

With his contract (not every team wants that), his size and a NMC he could become very hard or nearly impossible to trade.

9 teams is probably enough to cover all the teams that can afford him and would actually want him.

Good observation. When does it kick in? July 1st? If that's it then there would be an opportunity after the season to execute the trade if proper ground work is done prior.

All signs point to next off-season as make-or-break for G with the Avs.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Seriously none of those names fit with the Avs.

Lmao what? How do they not fit. They'd all be significant upgrades.

You make no sense at all sometimes.

 

[CobraAcesS]

I'd guess it's possible. But I feel unlikely.


Though the further into the summer those guys go without signing, the lower those contracts go.


Tbh I wouldn't want Foote though. He's just not very good. Would take the other two on ~1.5M deals though.

You don't think Foote has some potential left to unlock? One thing we seem to be able to do is develop guys a bit defensively.

 

[myperbixhurts]

Lmao what? How do they not fit. They'd all be significant upgrades.

You make no sense at all sometimes.

Because other than Sundqvist, no one on that list has size or grit, and Sundqvist seems always injured where he plays like 30 games and doesn’t really get you much offense. He did play 67 games between Wings and Wild scored 28 points. That’s ok I guess nothing very impressive. Sakic said they want to get bigger and grittier on bottom 6. I also don’t see a fit for Tarasenko or Kane on the Avs. Maybe Sundqvist would be a decent option for 4C depending on price

 

[chet1926]

I didn't remember that Girard has a M-NTC kicking in next summer...9 teams no trade list. That could complicate things if they plan on keeping Toews.

Especially for someone like Girard with a limited number of teams interested in small defensemen.

With his contract (not every team wants that), his size and a NMC he could become very hard or nearly impossible to trade.

9 teams is probably enough to cover all the teams that can afford him and would actually want him.

Which is why I've been saying they need to trade him sooner than later if they are ever going to do it.

 

[UncleRisto]

Lmao what? How do they not fit. They'd all be significant upgrades.

You make no sense at all sometimes.

Yeah, I don't like a lot of those either. Slim pickings though, of course.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Because other than Sundqvist, no one on that list has size or grit, and Sundqvist seems always injured where he plays like 30 games and doesn’t really get you much offense. He did play 67 games between Wings and Wild scored 28 points. That’s ok I guess nothing very impressive. Sakic said they want to get bigger and grittier on bottom 6. I also don’t see a fit for Tarasenko or Kane on the Avs. Maybe Sundqvist would be a decent option for 4C depending on price

I don't know that we need more bangers, not on the third line, and not at 4C if LOC and Cogs are the wings.

I'd target intelligent players, who can make plays and/or are good defensively for the bottom six personally. That's why if we don't add, I kinda like Foudy for that 3W spot if I'm betting on a young forward.

Or if Meyers can play wing, and bring more of his offensive skill set.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Because other than Sundqvist, no one on that list has size or grit, and Sundqvist seems always injured where he plays like 30 games and doesn’t really get you much offense. He did play 67 games between Wings and Wild scored 28 points. That’s ok I guess nothing very impressive. Sakic said they want to get bigger and grittier on bottom 6. I also don’t see a fit for Tarasenko or Kane on the Avs. Maybe Sundqvist would be a decent option for 4C depending on price

That doesn't mean every single position in the bottom 6 had to get grittier(He never said anything about bigger either). If that were the case they wouldn't have re-signed Cogliano.


That entire list of players would be an upgrade for the respective line they'd play on the Avs.