Rumor: 2023-2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Off-season is in full swing

[The Mars Volchenkov]

You keep him as your own rental for a year without having to give up anything. This year is our best chance remaining to win a cup, trading Toews would be a massive blow to those chances.


It's not a bad thing to not sign a soon to be 31 year old to a ~7-8 year deal for $8-9M. Letting him walk and allocating that cap space elsewhere and on younger players would be a fine direction to go.


The best outcome would be having Toews sign a 4-5 year deal for $8M instead of 7-8 but that's also extremely unlikely.

I mean, calling him a “soon to be 31 year old” is a little disingenuous. He won’t even turn 31 until the first year of his next contract is 75% done.

I would agree the best case is 4-5 years, though.

 

[Foppa2118]

Imo, where things get confused is on Manson’s actual defensive ability. It’s miles behind Makar/Toews and hundreds of meters behind Byram and Girard.

The only way teams gameplan against Makar/Toews is by hoping their best players can break through every once in a while. Those guys are rocks defensively. They eat tough minutes/matchups, kill the penalties, operate the power play.

Manson’s value is in hitting people. Which is an element that means something in the playoffs. It’s why the Avs made Ross Colton their prime target this off-season. He’s a high motor player that fits the system.

Tbh, they might as well hang onto Manson this year to see if he recoups value. His value is in the gutter. I think it’s pretty unlikely he plays that poorly this season.

I don't think you can really compare their defensive abilities that way though.

It's not really an apples to apples comparison. Each are suited to different types of defending which is better or worse depending on the circumstance.

Makar, Toews, and Byram can all be "better" defensively in certain circumstances. Mostly involving a good stick and good awareness in coverage or 1 on 1. Girard isn't good enough defensively to be in the group that can be better than Manson.

But when it comes to other circumstances that require more physical strength to win battles, and in some cases nastiness that can either get forwards off their game, by means of distraction, or just making them more timid, Manson is clearly better.

These are still big parts of playing defense too, especially in the playoffs.

Manson is just better than the others at the down low battles in the corner fighting for pucks, and in front of the net boxing guys out, and tying up their sticks so they can't deflect pucks, or get to rebounds. The kind of battles that wear on forwards during a series.

These battles are very important. They happen multiple times a game, sometimes multiple times a period in the playoffs, and winning or losing them can be the difference in winning or losing a series.

As an example of the reverse, the Avs didn't have enough big or gritty forwards left in the lineup against Seattle, and losing those net front battles for greasy goals on screens/tips/rebounds was a big reason why they lost.

 

[NorthernAvsFan]

I don't think you can really compare their defensive abilities that way though.

It's not really an apples to apples comparison. Each are suited to different types of defending which is better or worse depending on the circumstance.

Makar, Toews, and Byram can all be "better" defensively in certain circumstances. Mostly involving a good stick and good awareness in coverage or 1 on 1. Girard isn't good enough defensively to be in the group that can be better than Manson.

But when it comes to other circumstances that require more physical strength to win battles, and in some cases nastiness that can either get forwards off their game, by means of distraction, or just making them more timid, Manson is clearly better.

These are still big parts of playing defense too, especially in the playoffs.

Manson is just better than the others at the down low battles in the corner fighting for pucks, and in front of the net boxing guys out, and tying up their sticks so they can't deflect pucks, or get to rebounds. The kind of battles that wear on forwards during a series.

These battles are very important. They happen multiple times a game, sometimes multiple times a period in the playoffs, and winning or losing them can be the difference in winning or losing a series.

As an example of the reverse, the Avs didn't have enough big or gritty forwards left in the lineup against Seattle, and losing those net front battles for greasy goals on screens/tips/rebounds was a big reason why they lost.

They’re just outright better defensively. Apples, oranges, doesn’t matter.

I don’t think we’re going to see eye to eye here, as I disagree with almost all of this.

I’ll put it this way… when Connor McDavid jumps over the boards in the Western Conference Final it’s 8 and 7 hoping over the Avs bench to defend him, not Josh Manson. I think that tells you everything you need to know about who’s better defensively.

I don’t even think Manson is better at separating people from pucks in the corners than Toews/Makar. Seeing as both those guys can outmuscle players and have better stick work.

 

[Foppa2118]

They’re just outright better defensively. Apples, oranges, doesn’t matter.

I don’t think we’re going to see eye to eye here, as I disagree with almost all of this.

I’ll put it this way… when Connor McDavid jumps over the boards in the Western Conference Final it’s 8 and 7 hoping over the Avs bench to defend him, not Josh Manson. I think that tells you everything you need to know about who’s better defensively.

I don’t even think Manson is better at separating people from pucks in the corners than Toews/Makar. Seeing as both those guys can outmuscle players and have better stick work.

Of course it matters. Who jumps over the boards when Jamie Benn goes on the ice?

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I mean, calling him a “soon to be 31 year old” is a little disingenuous. He won’t even turn 31 until the first year of his next contract is 75% done.

I would agree the best case is 4-5 years, though.

I'm not talking about today, but in a year from now when he is a UFA. At that point he will be 30 and turn 31 about halfway through the 1st year of his new deal.


His age today doesn't matter. He's here this year regardless.

 

[NorthernAvsFan]

Of course it matters. Who jumps over the boards when Jamie Benn goes on the ice?

Probably Manson, since Makar and Toews would go against the Stars top line.

 

[Foppa2118]

I wouldn't consider Girard soft. He actually throws hits and battles with guys. He's just small and weak.

Girard is one of the best puck moving defenseman in the league, but his net front defense can definitely be described as soft.

It's just not a strength of his because of his size/strength/reach limitations. When he loses body position, he gets in trouble.

And with his lack of reach, his margin for error with body positioning, is much smaller than someone like Manson or EJ, who can make better desperation plays with their longer reach.

Toews actually has some of the same issues just not quite as often.

Leaving G to defend the front of the net has cost them some important goals in the playoffs. This is the value of Manson to the team and why you need a guy like him to play next to Girard.

 

[sethro109]

Girard is one of the best puck moving defenseman in the league, but his net front defense can definitely be described as soft.

It's just not a strength of his because of his size/strength/reach limitations. When he loses body position, he gets in trouble.

And with his lack of reach, his margin for error with body positioning, is much smaller than someone like Manson or EJ, who can make better desperation plays with their longer reach.

Toews actually has some of the same issues just not quite as often.

Leaving G to defend the front of the net has cost them some important goals in the playoffs. This is the value of Manson to the team and why you need a guy like him to play next to Girard.

That's not soft at all. Yes he losses the battle, but he's continually engaged with his man and even threw a crosscheck to his back. Soft is someone like Barrie. Who didn't even try to throw a hit.

 

[Foppa2118]

Probably Manson, since Makar and Toews would go against the Stars top line.

Benn was their second leading scorer last year. Manson would go against him regardless of whether he played on the top line or the second line.

Just like they'd probably want Manson going against Tkachuk if they played Florida or Bertuzzi if they played Toronto.

He was just so awful last year, I think it’s going to be hard to replicate, tbh.

I’m not expecting him to return to prime form, but if he just completely stunk it would surprise me.

He was clearly playing with a bad high ankle sprain most of last year too. That part always seems to get left out of these conversations for some reason.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

When Manson is healthy he's a great player and a perfect pairing for Girard or Bo, but that's also the problem. He's too injury prone.

He's not even good when he's healthy. He's just really bad at this point. A terrible skater that takes himself out of position to make hits that he doesn't even connect on very often anymore. Soft in front of the net especially for a guy who's supposed to be physical in that area.


It's the worst contract on the team and certainly the hardest to move. Would cost a 1st+ today to dump.

 

[AvsFan2123]

Well I think a lot of us can agree that one of Manson or Girard needs to be traded before 7/1/24. Isn’t that when G’s M-NTC kicks in? Manson will go from a NTC to M-NTC after this year if I remember correctly as well. One of them will need to go bye bye if we want a shot in hell at re-signing Toews AND Rantanen. And tbh, I had a helluva time icing a complete team with one of them still here in my CapFriendly shenanigans. Plus Georgiev will be due soon (if we plan on re-signing him). And he won’t be cheap either if he strings together another 40+ win season.

IMO, I think we can get bye this year with both of them back there. That’s a good ass top 5 with Makar, Toews, Byram, G, and Manson. Just need someone to push JJ out by trade deadline.

The way I look at it, we should be looking at a RHD to play alongside G. Peeke comes immediately to mind. Lybushkin? Trying to think of others who are on teams who will sell.

 

[Foppa2118]

That's not soft at all. Yes he losses the battle, but he's continually engaged with his man and even threw a crosscheck to his back. Soft is someone like Barrie. Who didn't even try to throw a hit.

The way he attempted to box out the forward beside the net was pretty soft. Even with his strength limitations, it was a weak/soft effort. Made it too easy for the forward. Might as well have not even been there.

Girard's not a soft human being. But his brand of defense is kind of soft, because he gets out battled physically in many of those stationary battles in front of the net and in the corners, and can get muscled off pucks easily if he gets caught flat footed with the puck behind the net.

My definition of soft is the opposite of being "tough to play against." A good D core has a good balance of puck movers like Girard and defenseman that are tough to play against like Manson.

Ideally you could have both with a guy like Hedman, but those guys are few and far between these days, so you have to utilize roles, and try to put each guy in the best position to succeed.

 

[Balthazar]

It never was keeping Toews vs keeping Girard or keeping Toews vs keeping Manson.

Whoever is playing second pairing will make in that 4M to 5M range. You replace Manson for a guy that will make the same money, that doesn't help the Toews case at all.

The defense will be Byram and Makar making big money, second pairing making slightly below league average and the 3rd pairing making close to league minimum.

That's what makes sense under the salary cap. Not Toews making 8M-9M on the second pair until he's 37 while Byram is also making 8M on the first pair.

 

[Foppa2118]

It never was keeping Toews vs keeping Girard or keeping Toews vs keeping Manson.

Whoever is playing second pairing will make in that 4M to 5M range. You replace Manson for a guy that will make the same money, that doesn't help the Toews case at all.

The defense will be Byram and Makar making big money, second pairing making slightly below league average and the 3rd pairing making close to league minimum.

That's what makes sense under the salary cap. Not Toews making 8M-9M on the second pair until he's 37 while Byram is also making 8M on the first pair.

Yeah, that's why Byram getting bridged was the obvious plan. They can keep them all with Bo on a bridge, but long term it doesn't make much sense to be paying three D men $8M+.

I mentioned this a while back, but after crunching the 25-26 numbers, I actually think it's a cap decision between whether they keep Mikko or Toews. And which one is easier to replace.

I think you have to side with Mikko in that case, since Toews would be sliding into a lesser role with Byram taking over, that's easier to replace than the role Mikko will play if re-signed.

 

[niwotsblessing]

I’d say it is more likely than not. He’s a physical defensive defenseman over 30. They age like raw milk on a 100 degree day.

They turn into yogurt?

 

[S E P H]

Should never have been re-signed to begin with. Now he’s gonna be hard to get rid of.

If teams were smart, the good thing is that there are many clubs out there that have so many old boy gangs in their front office that get hard-ons for Manson-level defenders. The problem is that I don't see the Avs moving on from him, I think they value him as much as Brian Burke and Treliving do.

 

[Tommy Shelby]

I really don't understand why people are freaking out.

They're not going to let Rantanen walk, they'll jettison Nuke before that happens. Toews will be signed long-term, and if his contract is hampering the team 5-6 years from now, they'll just trade him away. Bad contracts are moved all the time. Top teams find a way to navigate the salary cap.

Relax and enjoy the rest of the summer, they don't last long these days so go have a drink on a patio and stay off of capfriendly.

 

[Foppa2118]

Relax and enjoy the rest of the summer, they don't last long these days so go have a drink on a patio and stay off of capfriendly.

No reason to pick and choose. Plenty of time for both.

 

[redacted]

They turn into yogurt?

Somebody didn’t grow up on a farm.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I really don't understand why people are freaking out.

They're not going to let Rantanen walk, they'll jettison Nuke before that happens. Toews will be signed long-term, and if his contract is hampering the team 5-6 years from now, they'll just trade him away. Bad contracts are moved all the time. Top teams find a way to navigate the salary cap.

Relax and enjoy the rest of the summer, they don't last long these days so go have a drink on a patio and stay off of capfriendly.

Except they actually don't... Its the salary cap that eventually ends a teams window, combined with age.

The Avs are simply approaching the unavoidable.

 

[AvsMakar08]

I'm confident Toews will be re-signed, but I think odds are higher it'll happen next summer. This is the same path they have taken with Landy, Nuke, Kadri, and Burkie. The only thing I'd think that changes the math is if Byram overtakes Toews on the top pairing and if Girard has a major comeback season.

Girard has been always decent in the season. I bet that they would look at what Girard had and has accomplished in the post season.

 

[Avsboy]

My hope is the Avs keep Toews and Girard

 

[Linds]

My hope is the Avs keep Toews and Girard

How? if they do the forward core will have even less depth

 

[willy702]

The problem with Toews is he's going to ask for 7 or 8 years and the Avs will balk for good reason. Then when they say no more than 4 or 5 his agent will claim the Avs are disrespectful and he is as good as gone.

I don't see him being a top 15 D away from Makar. Away from the Avs he's a 1st pair D now and for a year or two, then he will start sliding. I say be ruthless and make the trade when you can. Doesn't make the team better but makes for a much longer lasting window.

 

[Avsboy]

How? if they do the forward core will have even less depth

That’s ok. The D is the strength and it needs to stay that way