Rumor: 2023-2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Off-season is in full swing

[RockLobster]

 

[NateTheGreat]

Really not that surprising from Dom’s model.

I’m sure his model will come around on Wood, Colton, and Johansen after their numbers/underlyings jump up after this season.

We already know how he and Jfresh feel about the Avs this year.

Whether these models favour the Avs or not, they shouldn’t be used as evidence of anything. Data can be manipulated to each individual’s preferences. Some data points are weighted more than others, some are excluded from the models entirely, some are included when they shouldn’t, etc.

Both of them have had the Leafs as top contenders for years now and that team has one(1) playoff round win to show for it.

Data can be interpreted in so many different ways. There is bias in almost every analytical model no matter how much you try to eliminate it.

Whether they show up as good or bad for the Avs makes no difference and frankly that’s true for really any team.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

 

[zxcvnm]

Even if you think they wanted RyJo and Backlund... the Avs went out and got Colton on draft day, then commented about him being a center repeatedly. RyJo and Colton are the middle 6 centers on this team for better or worse.

I don't know Backlund's game well enough to know if he can play 2C on a championship team or is an upgrade to RyJo there. If he's really just a 3C, then I agree that the Colton trade pretty much rules out any future moves for Backlund.

On the other hand, if Lindholm is traded during the offseason and the Avs aren't in the mix, I will be very disappointed. The only way I will be ok with it is if Lindholm is traded during the season and RyJo is absolutely killing it. Then the Avs should use their assets to upgrade the roster elsewhere.

 

[henchman21]

I think data and the viewpoints they can bring are good... and having many sources of data is important (in all aspects of life). None of these are the end all, be all of everything. I do however love how the human brains can uses the data at one point and show how it means everything is perfect... and then a week later take the same data and show how everything is in shambles. This happens everywhere in life and is such a fascinating thing to me. How the F did the human brain get wired this way and why can't we evolve past it?!

Puts Boston a few hundred k above the cap with 23, so they'll be sending someone down. Time to get Megna back!

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Whether these models favour the Avs or not, they shouldn’t be used as evidence of anything. Data can be manipulated to each individual’s preferences. Some data points are weighted more than others, some are excluded from the models entirely, some are included when they shouldn’t, etc.

Both of them have had the Leafs as top contenders for years now and that team has one(1) playoff round win to show for it.

Data can be interpreted in so many different ways. There is bias in almost every analytical model no matter how much you try to eliminate it.

Whether they show up as good or bad for the Avs makes no difference and frankly that’s true for really any team.

Because they have been... They've been a Top ~5 team every season. The last 4 years now the team they lost to in the East has went on to the Cup final. That's just a combination of bad luck and variance inside an extremely variable NHL playoff format.


Apparently the actual issue here is understanding that the regular season models are not as good of predictors of playoff success... Largely because of the associated variance inside of a 7 game playoff series.

When you put two Top ~8 teams against each other in a 1st or 2nd round match up, you're talking about a ~55% favorite to win a series. It's basically a coin flip.

 

[Toothless Legend]

I think data and the viewpoints they can bring are good... and having many sources of data is important (in all aspects of life). None of these are the end all, be all of everything. I do however love how the human brains can uses the data at one point and show how it means everything is perfect... and then a week later take the same data and show how everything is in shambles. This happens everywhere in life and is such a fascinating thing to me. How the F did the human brain get wired this way and why can't we evolve past it?!

Likely rooted in the same evolutionary need for confirmation bias and combined with the tribalism that sports has always tapped into. Two things we won't evolve past anytime soon!

Lost in the "spirited" debate over the various public models is the fact that they're tied to and subject to journalism platform incentives: eyeballs, clicks, debate, and strong opinions (in both directions) are implicit motivators in each. I enjoy them to varying degrees, but they're editorials with fancy math (which mostly goes over my pea brain) at the end of the day.

 

[MacKaRant]

RyJo and Colton are the middle 6 centers on this team for better or worse.

I bet you that the injury gods will have something to say on this front.

 

[henchman21]

I bet you that the injury gods will have something to say on this front.

If there is one thing about both of them, outside of some freak things, they stay healthy. Which means season ending surgery in 3...2...

 

[Foppa2118]

Here's something that those who want the Avs to go all in every year probably haven't realized.

If the Avs didn't keep their mid to late 1st round picks, they wouldn't have Lehkonen or Ross Colton. Wouldn't have Byram either if they traded that pick like some wanted when it looked like a mid to late pick.

Those are three very important pieces to the Avs success, that they wouldn't have if they did things the way the aggressive crowd wants.

They'd have some overpriced, true half measures instead, because they were over aggressive when they shouldn't have been.

Like when people flipped out that they didn't trade the moon for Kevin Hayes in Byram's draft year, who cost $7.1M to resign, for 40-50 points a season. Now that's a half measure.

 

[Avs_19]

Another Dorion special.

Duchene, ZIbanejad, and Stone are his masterpieces but he has a lot of hits.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Going all-in every year you can also end up with no cup at all. At least we have one now so I'll give the FO the benefit of the doubt.

 

[Foppa2118]

Going all-in every year you can also head up with no cup at all. At least we have one now so I'll give the FO the benefit of the doubt.

Yes, we've seen that many times. You're shortening your contention window by giving up all those assets, basically just with the hope of getting lucky.

The odds are against any one team winning in a given year. Just like they're against any one team winning the draft lottery. No matter how good they look on paper. Look at Boston last year.

Joe and CMac have the much better strategy IMO to give themselves multiple kicks at the can with multiple years to try and win the Cup. That increases their odds to win tremendously.

Not only that, it's MUCH more likely you can win multiple Cups with this strategy. Nearly impossible to win multiple Cups with the all in every year strategy.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Yes, we've seen that many times. You're shortening your contention window by giving up all those assets, basically just with the hope of getting lucky.

The odds are against any one team winning in a given year. Just like they're against any one team winning the draft lottery. No matter how good they look on paper. Look at Boston last year.

Joe and CMac have the much better strategy IMO to give themselves multiple kicks at the can with multiple years to try and win the Cup. That increases their odds to win tremendously.

Not only that, it's MUCH more likely you can win multiple Cups with this strategy. Nearly impossible to win multiple Cups with the all in every year strategy.

I wouldn't say nearly impossible but I would argue that it becomes harder very quickly because not only you face the cap crunch that most contenders hit shortly after reaching that level but you are also running out of assets to use in trades.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Another Dorion special.

Duchene, ZIbanejad, and Stone are his masterpieces but he has a lot of hits.

If only Pierre didnt block all calls coming from Denver the Avs could poach some of their players again.

 

[shadow1]

Personally, I see the 2021 Avalanche as a failure by the coaching/players rather than management.

The trade deadline was notoriously crappy, but Colorado's roster that year was loaded. The team was a minute away from going up 3-0 on Vegas before the bottom fell out, and seemingly no one but Brandon Saad could score a goal for the rest of the series.

I do think Sakic/CMac had one massive screw up that season, though. The Avs traded Ian Cole a couple games into the season, right after EJ was activated off the IR, in anticipation of Byram's arrival. EJ was lost for the season literally 4 games later, and Byram also missed most of the season due to injury. These events ultimately led to the re-acquisition of Nemeth...

 

[CobraAcesS]

Looking beyond this next season... one pretty uncomfortable reality is we may be relying on Landy and have to carry his $7m. Right now, with Landy, this team would be pushing 90m. Next season the Avs currently have a touch under 77m on the books. If he's determined to come back (and by all accounts he is), that means the Avs only have about 10.5m to spend for Toews, 2 depth D, backup goalie, and 3 forwards. That setups up a 12-7-2, so only one extra skater. If you only spend the league minimum on the 6 spots beyond Toews, you're still spending 4.65m. That leaves only a touch under 6m. Which likely won't be enough to sign Toews. There are solutions to this that range from it being a terrible sign (RyJo getting bought out), to costly (moving Manson and having to pay to do it), to hurting the team (trading a $4+m contract on anybody else).

If Landy LTIRetires, then there is some room, but it gets tight quick.



On the everyone who makes the playoffs has a chance motiff... people have railed against Minny for years being a murky middle team. Yet they almost always make the playoffs, are they a contender? Is the (arguably) most hated team on here, Dallas, a contender? Are there really 16 contending teams? To me there has to be a line somewhere between all playoffs and elite teams only. Though I'd say since 2008, there have only been a few legitimate surprise winners. St Louis for sure (though IIRC Cousin Eddie won some cash there). Then arguably the Kings first run... though people were railing hard on their underperformance prior to those playoffs. Beyond that... Not sure any team was a real surprise. You can generally list the top 6-8 teams and the winner will be in there.

I can't gather my thoughts on MacFarland yet. 1st year GMs are typically too conservative and the 2nd and 3rd years are more important to evaluate who they are. What I see is necessary risk taking. He went risky because he kinda had to... the result of that may or may not be his true ability at a GM. By training camp 2025, we should have a good answer on who CMac is... sadly that's a little late.

I really don't think MacK and Rants' abilities will determine the length of the window. Hear me out on this. They are elite players now, and it is entirely possible (as we just saw this past spring) that they are not able to carry the team all the way by themselves. McDavid and Drai can't get Edmonton over the hump, and they are better than MacK and Rants (though Edmonton doesn't have Makar, they have Nurse!). Just having 3 stars may not be enough. There will need to be depth elsewhere. Byram's development. Girard's regression (hopefully that F stops). Toews, Lehky, and Nuke's aging curve. George's ability to be a starter and not give up bad goals when it matters. I'd argue those are more important than anything MacK or Rants deal with as regression in the next ~3-4 years. If Nuke regresses to just a good defensive, but 45-50 point winger... that hurts at ton at his contract. Same if Lehky is that but more of a 3rd line version. If Byram stagnates here as a flaws but flashy middle pairing guy... the Avs need Toews to really hold on to being a top pairing guy for 4 seasons. Then... just Landy in general...

To me, the regression risk exists with MacK and Rants, but they'll likely be a high enough level for the next few years even with regression (though they certainly could also torpedo it if they drop to 2nd liners overnight, I just don't find that likley). The regression risk on the other long-term contracts, are a bigger risk. Assuming Toews gets re-signed long-term, the Avs have Lehky, Nuke, Landy, Toews, and Wood all signed through 2026 smack in the middle of the ages where regression normally hits... sometimes hard. With whatever Toews gets, that's somewhere between 30-33m or ~1/3 the cap on players that maybe not be providing excess value at some point.

Even if things go perfect there... for the next two seasons RyJo and Colton have to click, especially RyJo. If he doesn't click, I don't think the Avs are very dangerous. If he finds his 26 year old self, the Avs are a top 5 team even if some guys take a step back.

Yeah, he'd basically be a better Kadri for two years. That's completely possible at least. That dude can be a #1C, he absolutely has the frame and talent.

Yeah it's mostly a PP thing. Getting a PP coach would be nice. One can dream.

This is why I sort of was hoping by some miracle they'd pay Boucher what it takes to get him as an assistant. Pipe dream though..

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

 

[BrickNHL]

Fair deal for both sides

 

[henchman21]

I thought Terry was going to be insulted and hated the Ducks now.

 

[Pokecheque]

Personally, I see the 2021 Avalanche as a failure by the coaching/players rather than management.

The trade deadline was notoriously crappy, but Colorado's roster that year was loaded. The team was a minute away from going up 3-0 on Vegas before the bottom fell out, and seemingly no one but Brandon Saad could score a goal for the rest of the series.

I do think Sakic/CMac had one massive screw up that season, though. The Avs traded Ian Cole a couple games into the season, right after EJ was activated off the IR, in anticipation of Byram's arrival. EJ was lost for the season literally 4 games later, and Byram also missed most of the season due to injury. These events ultimately led to the re-acquisition of Nemeth...

View attachment 733033

Ultimately that team just wasn't good enough, and a big reason for that was between the pipes. Grubauer was stellar the first two games and then promptly imploded. The goal he gave up against Nick Holden is right up there with Rahim Moore and Joel Quenneville in sports decisions/moments I will never, ever, EVER forgive.

But you absolutely CANNOT just throw the coaches under the bus here, management simply did not go all in. They half-assed it like they did every other deadline (except 2022 of course) when they acquired the washed-up remnants of Carl Soderberg and Patrik Nemeth. In addition to that, this was right around the time Ryan Graves inexplicably got super-panicky every time the puck landed on his stick. The depth wasn't there, the talent wasn't there, the goaltending wasn't there, and the defense was most definitely NOT there.

Maybe Sakic realized the team just wasn't "ready" yet and did not invest fully until the following season. Regardless, they could've had the love child of Toe Blake and Punch Imlach behind the bench and it wouldn't have made any difference.

 

[niwotsblessing]

Maybe Sakic realized the team just wasn't "ready" yet and did not invest fully until the following season. Regardless, they could've had the love child of Toe Blake and Punch Imlach behind the bench and it wouldn't have made any difference.

Al Arbour and it would have been a different story.

 

[Balthazar]

I still can't explain the Soda/Nemeth deadline after the Avs just had perhaps their most dominant regular season ever...and that was with Kadri playing like absolute garbage for most of that season.

 

[chet1926]

I thought Terry was going to be insulted and hated the Ducks now.

Clearly the Ducks came in with a much better/realistic offer than the 4M number they submitted for arbitration. The 7M is much closer to what Terry was asking than what the Ducks submitted.

Guess the Ducks came to their senses and realized that they were going to have to actually pay for a consistent 60 pts+ player. Probably smart on the Ducks to not let it get to arbitration, Terry would have bolted like ROR the second he could.

Now player is getting a fair contract and isn't pissed off at his team.