Yeah... I look at 2020 and 2021 as wasted runs where the Avs should have been pushing harder, but they at least won in 2022. So many things can change and change quickly where it gets pretty difficult to stay on top. It is why some of us scream that they should be pushing chips to the middle as often as possible.
I won’t necessarily argue that the Avs made the right moves in 2020 and 2021 at the TDL. However, there is an argument to be made that had they been more aggressive then, they might not have had the capital to trade for Lehkonen or Manson in 2022 (and I’m particularly grateful that Giroux nixed any trade to the Avs).
It seems the front office is not interested in half measures. Last year I think their targets were Kane or O’Reilly and really no one else. Hayes likely didn’t move the needle enough for them to consider him seriously. The result is that they now have more capital to move at the next TDL.
There are multiple approaches to championship runs during a window. One is to be as aggressive as possible each run knowing that each subsequent season you will have less pieces to move. The other is to make calculated choices of when to go all in and, in the interim, stockpile assets. Instead of possibly two seasons of half measures, you exchange it for one season going all out.
Another way to put it is: would you rather have 5 seasons with 20% chance to win or 2 seasons with 50% and 3 with 0. Your expected number of championships is 1 in both cases but the probably of winning at least one during the 5 years improves from 67% to 75%. These are obviously made up numbers but the point is to illustrate that picking your spots of when to go all in is a valid strategy. Unfortunately, only history will judge if you did that right.
I’m not it saying that this is the right strategy from the Avs. Just that there is logic to it. To me, this is the season where the Avs should go all in given that they didn’t last season and Landeskog’s uncertain status will massively complicate the next offseason. The Avs need one more big move either soon or at the TDL. If they aren’t aggressive this year, then I will judge CMac and Sakic much more harshly for last years’ inaction.