I love how drastic everything here is. Avs may not be contenders=Avs are a bottom dweller to some
Or Avs are contenders= guaranteed best team in the league to others.
Certainly is no middle ground that’s for sure.
It does feel like that is accurate. Not sure if actually true, but matches my feelings.
To me there are a variety of levels and nuance to this. People on different sides of the argument will ignore that nuance to portray the other side poorly. So basically any other internet argument.
To me, when you look back, the 20-21 team was the best on paper. The stats of all kinds back that up (though pretty valid argument about QoC is there). They just laid an egg... Kadri being a dummy and Grubi forgetting to see pucks. But that egg laying taught them a lesson and in 21-22 they got much more aggressive. First in solving the goalie situation prior to season and paying a hefty price... but also bringing in 4 pretty large (at least 3) contributors to the team at the deadline. They didn't solve everything, but did quite a bit and rode a few career years to a Cup.
But as we look today... this team doesn't have nearly the depth it had 2-3 years ago, and what caused that depth to dry up? Contracts and losing excess value combined with a lack of success drafting. No longer do they have a 1C and 2C locked up for ~11m combined. They are spending more on the just the 1C today. The draft picks that were supposed to lift the depth have had to be traded away or didn't pan out. The depth that Seattle had was the main driver of the difference in the series (and George couldn't quit letting in one bad goal a game).
I like RyJo and Colton, and I think the Avs are in a better position to start the season... but when you compare today's team to the 20-21 and 21-22 teams, the depth is just night and day different... and the risks are significantly higher.
The whole window debate is touchy one here. Windows don't last as long as people think, and they tend to snap shut. No one today really knows if the window is closed or open, history will be that judge. Nobody in the summer of 2014 thought the Kings would be done, but they haven't made it out of the first round since... and went on a stretch of only making the playoffs 2 times in 7 seasons after. What has been said for years is that things will get progressively more difficult as the sweetheart contracts dry up. The MacK deal being the biggest chance of snapping it shut (not the first, not the only, but the biggest). That's why it is important to keep pushing chips into the middle, only so many great shots before you start grasping for straws.
As we saw last year, the depth already took a big hit... this year it
might be slightly better, but if you even look at the 3rd line, you can point to two guys who are 4th liners slotted next to guy that didn't play 3C last year (or since the 21 deadline). To think there are not major questions in the top 9 of this team is being blind.
If the season simply plays out where Drouin, RyJo, Colton, LOC, and Wood all play to the exact same level they played last year.... I'm not sure they are better than a wild card team and would be lucky to win one round. If that plays out and the Avs have two 1st round defeats while facing Toews, Rants and Byram extensions in the 14 months following... did the already window close?
Now if Drouin, RyJo, and Wood all return to form, Colton settles in like a lesser Gourde at 3C, and LOC takes a step... then the top 9 drastically improved. That's a lot to go right, but the Avs would be the strongest down the middle since 13/14 if that came true. With the defense and maybe one wing addition at the deadline, that's a team that can compete and go on a run. Additionally to that, only Drouin of that group needs re-signed. So if that can happen for 2 years, you've made it to the end of Mikko's deal and the window clearly didn't close.
Where you stand on the likelihood of those situations playing out is where you really stand in this debate.
One thing is for sure, I see what
@Cousin Eddie is stating here. I don't 100% agree, but he's certainly not all wrong here:
I can’t believe after running into major depth problems last year that heading into the season (as of now) we have to pencil Ben Meyers into our NHL lineup and Logan O’Connor on the 3rd line. That’s horrid depth if fully healthy. Just wait until injuries happen and we have to call up guys from the AHL. For as underwhelming as guys like Galchenyuk and Hudon are, we’re going to have far worse playing NHL games this year unless they bring in multiple more pieces.
They’re both terrible. It’s absurd.
This is supposed to be a Stanley cup contender. A Stanley Cup contender who can’t draft a quality player outside of the top 10 if their lives depended on it and they went ahead and made 2 picks in the late 1st round this year? It absolutely kills me that they used those picks. If 35th overall nets you Ross Colton imagine what one of, or two of those 1sts could get you.
Look, after the RyJo move, the Newhook trade and the Colton trade I thought Cmac started the offseason off on absolute fire. I thought now he’s really going to start filling in some of those depth gaps that killed us last year. But nope. It’s been a disaster ever since.
They aren’t a move away like many people think. They need multiple pieces.
The depth on this team is just full of risk and some of it isn't that good. LOC on the 3rd line is not ideal. Olofsson and Meyers looking like every night skaters, not ideal. Dermy as your first defensemen in upon injuries, not ideal. The Avs need the reclimations to work, they need to stay pretty healthy, some players need to make a jump, and they need to make a few moves to push to the top.
