Rumor: 2023-2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Off-season is in full swing

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Its pretty obvious that we are starting the year as a cup contender. The Avs appear as a top 5ish team in at least 2/3 of the power rankings, betting sites or semi-experts sites. Arguing that they are NOT starting the year as a cup contender is a minority opinion that confirms that there is no unanimity on the topic. Their probability of winning the cup are lower than in the past and will likely decrease a little every year. But it is highly likely that they will maintain the label of contender, in the eyes of the majority (not unanimity) for 2-3 more years. In my humble opinion, the only rational way of arguing that they are not a contender anymore is by applying a very, very restrictive definition to the term "contender", in order to include only 2-3 teams per year in that category.

Predictions are designed to be wrong, especially when they're done by random fans opinions without using any statistics to back them up... Meanwhile the stats guys who are always more accurate almost unanimously have the Avs regressing pretty significantly again next year.

I also quite frankly just dont buy the 2/3s argument at all... Just off of sources we've used here in previous days, The Athletic ranked us 25th in the league for offseason moves. JFresh's model projected us as a Wild Card team next year, Bleacher report has us 8th, NHL.com has us 9th, Money Puck 9th...


Betting sites are a joke designed to make money for the sites, they shouldn't cited as a source for anything really.


I'd say there's on average ~4-6 true Cup contenders in a given year(IE ~10% chance to win), then 4-6 dark horse contenders(~5% chance), so arguably ~10 teams that have a somewhat legitimate chance to win.

Most models right now would predict the Avs to absolutely not be in that Top group, more like a dark horse team that could move up or down a tier depending on the performances of Johansen and Colton in particular, but also quite frankly Nichushkin, and Byram are pretty important for next year as well.

 

[GoNordiquesGo]

I googled NHL power ranking 2024 and in order:
ESPN - 3rd
CBS Sports - 3rd
Bleacher - 8th
Sportsnet - 1st
The Hockey News - 1st
The Sporting News - 8th

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I googled NHL power ranking 2024 and in order:
ESPN - 3rd
CBS Sports - 3rd
Bleacher - 8th
Sportsnet - 1st
The Hockey News - 1st
The Sporting News - 8th

So you found 4 models in the top 5 and two outside... While I already provided 5. So it's actually closer to 1/3 of models ranking us Top 5(None of which are statistically backed) and 2/3s rankings us outside.

Which quite frankly sounds right.

 

[GoNordiquesGo]

I'm not interested in getting into a debate of semantic on the numbers I randomly used (2/3 in the top 5ish). If close to 100% of the power rankings put the Avs 9th or higher, including some that have them 1st, on top of what the betting sites use, I think the overall picture is pretty clear... the window did NOT close with Mac's new contract...

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I'm not interested in getting into a debate of semantic on the numbers I randomly used (2/3 in the top 5ish). If close to 100% of the power rankings put the Avs 9th or higher, including some that have them 1st, on top of what the betting sites use, I think the overall picture is pretty clear... the window did NOT close with Mac's new contract...

It seems like you are in fact interested in the debate since you're still responding after being proven wrong about your now admittedly random numbers you threw together...

A team that ranks ~10th on average in rankings is not a cup contender. Doesn't mean they can't still win the cup, but they are not a cup contender.


Plus, predictions ultimately mean nothing. Folks can predict all they want. What actually matters is the games that get played. We don't know yet if the Avs are still contenders or not, and likely won't know until ~60 games into the season and probably post trade deadline.

 

[zxcvnm]

Do we have concrete evidence that the models from the likes of JFresh or Dom have greater predictive power than the “expert” power rankings or betting sites? I like JFresh and Dom (I think they have a lot of value in explanation but not sure about prediction) but just because they use statistics in their models doesn’t inherently make them better at predictions. If someone has some analysis on this, point me to it.

Mack’s contract hardly seems like the cause of a so-called closed window when the combined cap hit of his contract and EJ’s hasn’t meaningfully changed this year. Mack regressing will have more impact on our window than the contract itself. And given he was arguably they best player in the league 5on5 last season, any regression thus far has been minimal.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Let's be honest with ourselves. We don't even have a window. It's a porthole, or maybe a cat flap at best.

Let's not forget that most portholes don't even open. They are sealed closed. We are doomed. Why even cheer for this team?

 

[Balthazar]

Let's not forget that most portholes don't even open. They are sealed closed.

Meh...some of them open anyway.

 

[GoNordiquesGo]

It seems like you are in fact interested in the debate since you're still responding after being proven wrong about your now admittedly random numbers you threw together...

A team that ranks ~10th on average in rankings is not a cup contender. Doesn't mean they can't still win the cup, but they are not a cup contender.


Plus, predictions ultimately mean nothing. Folks can predict all they want. What actually matters is the games that get played. We don't know yet if the Avs are still contenders or not, and likely won't know until ~60 games into the season and probably post trade deadline.

When you drive on the highway and everyone else is driving in the wrong direction... well...

But I understand that when you preach for years that something will happen, it's hard to face the fact that its not happening. I bet you that even if the Avs win the division again this year, unless they make it to the final you will argue that you were right and the window closed last year...

 

[UncleRisto]

Meh...some of them open anyway.

Come on, don't be disrespectful towards the five idiots that died.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

When you drive on the highway and everyone else is driving in the wrong direction... well...

But I understand that when you preach for years that something will happen, it's hard to face the fact that its not happening. I bet you that even if the Avs win the division again this year, unless they make it to the final you will argue that you were right and the window closed last year...

I've literally been here all summer as one of the more optimistic folks around. I actually think the team is set up well this year to go on a run.


Just pointing out that you were wrong in your post and happy to see you admitted your numbers were just randomly thrown together.

 

[GoNordiquesGo]

Don't be a troll, its childish...
My point was whether its 2/3 saying that they are top 5ish or 86.6489% saying that they are top 8ish, if the majority rank them well, they should be viewed as contender...

If you agree that they are well set, why are you arguing with me when I state that the window is NOT close ?

 

[CobraAcesS]

Predictions are designed to be wrong, especially when they're done by random fans opinions without using any statistics to back them up... Meanwhile the stats guys who are always more accurate almost unanimously have the Avs regressing pretty significantly again next year.

I also quite frankly just dont buy the 2/3s argument at all... Just off of sources we've used here in previous days, The Athletic ranked us 25th in the league for offseason moves. JFresh's model projected us as a Wild Card team next year, Bleacher report has us 8th, NHL.com has us 9th, Money Puck 9th...


Betting sites are a joke designed to make money for the sites, they shouldn't cited as a source for anything really.


I'd say there's on average ~4-6 true Cup contenders in a given year(IE ~10% chance to win), then 4-6 dark horse contenders(~5% chance), so arguably ~10 teams that have a somewhat legitimate chance to win.

Most models right now would predict the Avs to absolutely not be in that Top group, more like a dark horse team that could move up or down a tier depending on the performances of Johansen and Colton in particular, but also quite frankly Nichushkin, and Byram are pretty important for next year as well.

Why would Nuke's performance be questioned when he was playing with pain where this year he won't be?

If he's himself, he should be a bit better. Unless he was basically running on blow during games, and now can't lol.

 

[NOTENOUGHRYJOTHINGS]

Why would Nuke's performance be questioned when he was playing with pain where this year he won't be?

If he's himself, he should be a bit better. Unless he was basically running on blow during games, and now can't lol.

If he's himself. The man is potentially struggling with a lot of off ice stuff that could very well impact his game.

 

[Balthazar]

Why would Nuke's performance be questioned when he was playing with pain where this year he won't be?

We don't really know where he is mentally and physically. Is his ankle at 100%?

Also if he has some kind addiction then fighting that on the side is a pretty big deal, we just don't know if or how it will affect his play.

As of now Nuke is a big question mark. One more on the pile.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Don't be a troll, its childish...
My point was whether its 2/3 saying that they are top 5ish or 86.6489% saying that they are top 8ish, if the majority rank them well, they should be viewed as contender...

If you agree that they are well set, why are you arguing with me when I state that the window is NOT close ?

There's no trolling... If you're going to throw numbers out like you did they damn well better be accurate. They weren't even close to accurate.

We dont know whether they're well set or not. No clue. RyJo could be awful and if he is we're toast.

I think we're set up well this year because I have hope that RyJo bounces back, but quite frankly it could just as easily go the other way, it's that close.

 

[EdAVSfan]

Realistically, the Avs are not going to be in the top 3 favorites for the Stanley Cup for the foreseeable future. Now maybe some special trade falls in their lap to change that, but under normal circumstances, they won’t be.
The other reality is that staying in that top group of favorites for extended periods of time is incredibly difficult and many things have to line up.

The Avs simply going to be a consistent challenger year after year for as long as their best players hold up. Are they in the top 5, top 7, top 10? And it’s going to vary year to year. In part due to their own team, and in part to the teams around them. It’s very hard to stop young teams, building up for years, to stop them from passing you by.

At this point, it all depends on how you define contender. Much like what a #1 defenseman is, each person has its own definition.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Realistically, the Avs are not going to be in the top 3 favorites for the Stanley Cup for the foreseeable future. Now maybe some special trade falls in their lap to change that, but under normal circumstances, they won’t be.
The other reality is that staying in that top group of favorites for extended periods of time is incredibly difficult and many things have to line up.

The Avs simply going to be a consistent challenger year after year for as long as their best players hold up. Are they in the top 5, top 7, top 10? And it’s going to vary year to year. In part due to their own team, and in part to the teams around them. It’s very hard to stop young teams, building up for years, to stop them from passing you by.

At this point, it all depends on how you define contender. Much like what a #1 defenseman is, each person has its own definition.

All true. I dont think people realize we were a top tier contender for like ~4 years already.

We lost in the 2nd round 3 straight years, to San Jose, Dallas, and Vegas. The San Jose year, we weren't a contender. But basically since covid started and onwards, we've been a Top tier contender, one of ~3-4 favorites in the league.

That's 4 years now. We've also made the playoffs for 6 straight years, only 2 teams in the league have longer streaks at this point.


We are coming to the end of our window as a cup contender. It's the reality of the sport and the salary cap rules in place. The question that's left is whether this core can find one more deep run, one more cup before they window closes.

 

[the_fan]

So you found 4 models in the top 5 and two outside... While I already provided 5. So it's actually closer to 1/3 of models ranking us Top 5(None of which are statistically backed) and 2/3s rankings us outside.

Which quite frankly sounds right.

I found 4 models too

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

Avs will be lucky to finish as a top-32 team this season, bunch of incompetent goofs

 

[MonsterMack]

Avs will be relegated to the AHL after this season. Calder Cup window opening!

 

[Foppa2118]

That was assuming Malinski plays well. If he doesn't, they'd have to replace him with a good defenseman, which would be similarly priced.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Avs will be relegated to the AHL after this season. Calder Cup window opening!

I don't know about that. It usually takes a few years before a new team in a league can contend. I would say 2026 at the earliest with that particular window closing in 2027 due to Mack, Mikko and Makar being too old by then.

 

[Mighty Makar]

I hate this f***en fanbase.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Avs will be lucky to finish as a top-32 team this season, bunch of incompetent goofs

Avs will also win the next 6 Stanley cups and the All Star game format will be changed to Colorado vs the league...


At least, that's what you would believe from some posters here.

I hate this f***en fanbase.

But not jokingly