Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Again

[Gary Nylund]

That would actually be better for the Leafs. He may jump the shark and score as many goals as Domi, and Kerfoot in 4 years. Any normal player would take the guaranteed generational money. Not Matty and Mitch.

Definitely better for the Leafs, unless of course they sign him for 4/5 years now and then do it again 4/5 years from now (wouldn't surprise me).

That's one thing I really like about Nylander, the fact that he signed twice in a row for max term says to me that he really means it when he says he really wants to play here, and nowhere else.

 

[Sundinisagod]

Definitely better for the Leafs, unless of course they sign him for 4/5 years now and then do it again 4/5 years from now (wouldn't surprise me).

That's one thing I really like about Nylander, the fact that he signed twice in a row for max term says to me that he really means it when he says he really wants to play here, and nowhere else.

Hate to nit pick but Nylander’s previous deal was 6 years.

 

[conFABulator]

There’s been a lot of discussion here, so apologies if this has already been covered, but I think the Rantanen situation—and his potential extension in Carolina—could have a real impact on the Leafs' negotiations with Marner.

Rantanen and Marner are comparable in value, and it’s hard to argue that Marner should be worth significantly more. My guess is that Carolina gets Rantanen signed in the next month or so, and whatever number he lands at will likely set the market for Marner. If Rantanen comes in at $12.5M per year, it’s tough to see Marner getting anything more than that.

While we'd all prefer a lower number, $12.5M over eight years is probably fair by market standards. Five years from now, that contract could look reasonable, especially as the cap continues to rise. Right now, top guys are signing for around 14-15% of the cap, and locking Marner in at a set number long-term could age well.

Would love to hear thoughts—especially on whether people think Rantanen will actually sign in Carolina soon and how that might shift things for Marner.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Hate to nit pick but Nylander’s previous deal was 6 years.

Oops.

There’s been a lot of discussion here, so apologies if this has already been covered, but I think the Rantanen situation—and his potential extension in Carolina—could have a real impact on the Leafs' negotiations with Marner.

Rantanen and Marner are comparable in value, and it’s hard to argue that Marner should be worth significantly more. My guess is that Carolina gets Rantanen signed in the next month or so, and whatever number he lands at will likely set the market for Marner. If Rantanen comes in at $12.5M per year, it’s tough to see Marner getting anything more than that.

While we'd all prefer a lower number, $12.5M over eight years is probably fair by market standards. Five years from now, that contract could look reasonable, especially as the cap continues to rise. Right now, top guys are signing for around 14-15% of the cap, and locking Marner in at a set number long-term could age well.

Would love to hear thoughts—especially on whether people think Rantanen will actually sign in Carolina soon and how that might shift things for Marner.

I have no idea if Ranta will sign soon or not. I just have two thoughts:

1)
12.5 might be reasonable by some standards, but even at 11 he won't be worth it if he keeps choking in the playoffs. If he doesn't play like an elite forward in the playoffs this spring, I would not sign him, period. And yes that means I would not sign him before the playoffs no matter what.

2)
IMO it's hard to argue that Marner is worth even a penny more than Ranta, but I wouldn't be surprised to see our genius management group pay him more anyway.

 

[Gabriel426]

Personally I doubt he’s stepped up his game in a contract year just to give us a discount. He was coasting for the last several years til now. He’s just like the others, motivated by money, very risky to extend him. Time to end this culture of greed, Have to let both Marner and Tavares walk.

Actually I think JT’s production dropped off after Team Canada announced the roster.

 

[keonsbitterness]

If he wants to play games just ask him for a list of teams he will waive for and put him on the block. No need to piss around with his bs and antics.

He's not waiving for anyone.

Exactly why risk it when odds are you are more likely to remain a Kerfoot in the playoffs than morph into a Doug Gilmour.

Marner and Matthews have yet to sign a post-ELC deal with max term. Someone will pay Marner big money for his regular season production with the hope he'll turn into a playoff hero once or twice. I don't think he's risking much.

 

[PromisedLand]

tigger warning marner fans he is not on the 1st PP for Team Canada

 

[Voodoo Child]

tigger warning marner fans he is not on the 1st PP for Team Canada

If Auston Matthews is on team USA...Will Mitch try to pass it to him on the power play?

 

[mikeyz]

No worries. Kessel was a very fast skater, especially straight line speed. Also had a really quick release.

The issue with Mitch is, he’s not fast, he’s not strong, he doesn’t have a hard/heavy shot. He can get away with the things he does in the regular season, but not in the playoffs.

I just don’t think he’s the guy to throw big money at. This is just my opinion and I’m sure I am in the minority. I would love for him to prove me wrong this postseason.

This is such a bang on statement about him.

 

[thewave]

This is such a bang on statement about him.

How much you wanna bet after he makes one good play in the 4 Nations one of his shills will be in the media like Kyper... You know, you gotta believe people are interested in Marner, I am hearing 12 13 14 maybe even 15m with the way the caps going up. They gotta get something done with this guy.

It's comical.

 

[thewave]

tigger warning marner fans he is not on the 1st PP for Team Canada

Wait why isn't the best playmaker since Gretzky on PP1? Hmm this weird, conspiracy against Mitch?

 

[BraveCanadian]

God you guys are desperate. Marner on the first line and second PP unit of Team Canada but is apparently a terrible hockey player.

Stop and listen to yourselves.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Wait why isn't the best playmaker since Gretzky on PP1? Hmm this weird, conspiracy against Mitch?

No, just resting today.

 

[Hellcat]

Have you watched McDavid in the playoffs? 2 years ago he set a tone in an elimination game first shift he hit everything that moved. His been suspended twice and doesn’t shy away from contact.

Dirty and physical are not necessarily the same thing. McDavid was dirty. Are you suggesting Marner should get suspended in the playoffs?

 

[Hellcat]

May as well give Mitch the max if winning is not number 1.

2 ENG in December, 1 goal on Skinner in January. Willie scored 3 goals vs Calgary alone last week.

Why are you focused on goals? Stolarz zero goals scored this year... he sucks. Tanev not a goal scorer... he sucks... am I doing this right? Kinda silly to use goals as a metric of value for a player who is not a goal scorer, for any position.

 

[Gary Nylund]

He's not waiving for anyone.

Yup.

Marner and Matthews have yet to sign a post-ELC deal with max term. Someone will pay Marner big money for his regular season production with the hope he'll turn into a playoff hero once or twice. I don't think he's risking much.

There are enough teams with no hope of doing anything in the playoffs in the near future that would love Marner and to a team like that, Marner would be worth a ton as well. Plays great in the regular season and sure you can hope he does something in the playoffs but if he fades away after 4 games, oh well, who cares.

Playing in some NHL backwater isn't the same as playing in his home town, the capital of the hockey world where Marner himself has said he's treated like a god. In some random place like that he would not be treated like a god and he would also lose millions of endorsement money. A smart GM working for an organization with that has pride would point all this out to Marner and not be bent over by him.

God you guys are desperate. Marner on the first line and second PP unit of Team Canada but is apparently a terrible hockey player.

Stop and listen to yourselves.

Did anyone say Marner's a terrible hockey player? I don't think so. Posts like this are pollution, plain and simple.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

No worries. Kessel was a very fast skater, especially straight line speed. Also had a really quick release.

The issue with Mitch is, he’s not fast, he’s not strong, he doesn’t have a hard/heavy shot. He can get away with the things he does in the regular season, but not in the playoffs.

I just don’t think he’s the guy to throw big money at. This is just my opinion and I’m sure I am in the minority. I would love for him to prove me wrong this postseason.

well said.

He's exceptional when given time and space because of his creativity and hockey IQ. But his physical skills themselves don't make it as easy for him to actually create new space for himself in the way of a MacKinnon.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Why are you focused on goals? Stolarz zero goals scored this year... he sucks. Tanev not a goal scorer... he sucks... am I doing this right? Kinda silly to use goals as a metric of value for a player who is not a goal scorer, for any position.

I personally don't care that much how many goals Marner scores, my issue with him is that he disappears after 86 games. That said, while goal scoring isn't the only metric of value, it is absolutely a metric of some value when we're talking about forwards, especially forwards who are among the top paid players in the NHL.

What's kind of silly is comparing Marner's goal scoring ability to Tanev and Stolarz (a Dman and a goalie). Actually silly isn't the right word, completely ridiculous and intellectually dishonest is a better way of putting it. If this is the best you can come up with to prop up Marner then I suggest you give up because this is a debate you've already lost.

 

[thewave]

well said.

He's exceptional when given time and space because of his creativity and hockey IQ. But his physical skills themselves don't make it as easy for him to actually create new space for himself in the way of a MacKinnon.

Marner is at the mercy of his opposition as far as time and space goes. If they crank up the intensity and take away his time and space he becomes a puck flipper.

 

[ToneDog]

Why are you focused on goals? Stolarz zero goals scored this year... he sucks. Tanev not a goal scorer... he sucks... am I doing this right? Kinda silly to use goals as a metric of value for a player who is not a goal scorer, for any position.

Not paying a 20 goal soft winger who fades in the playoffs $14m. That is not good business if your goal is to win the SC.

Silly to compare goal scoring to a goalie. That is what it has come to? Stolarz' job is to stop the puck, he is outperforming his contract, is making $2.5m and is not asking for Shesterkin money.

Why do you think Marner is worth 10x what McMann is?

Just read Gary's response to your post and his so much better than mine.

 

[JL17]

Dirty and physical are not necessarily the same thing. McDavid was dirty. Are you suggesting Marner should get suspended in the playoffs?

It’s clear you haven’t watch McDavid play in the playoffs. He’s made some dirty plays but come playoff time he’s been plenty physical. I think Marner should try and find the middle of the ice in the playoffs. Maybe watch a few vids of Conor Garland.

 

[ToneDog]

He's not waiving for anyone.

Marner and Matthews have yet to sign a post-ELC deal with max term. Someone will pay Marner big money for his regular season production with the hope he'll turn into a playoff hero once or twice. I don't think he's risking much.

He could drop off a cliff in 3-5 years. His goal scoring has been trending down since he put up his max of 35. His skating is average, he is small and softer than butter. Only a fool would pay him the same money for those years that the Leafs are prepared to. I'd take the money and run but then again I am not a greedy SOB.

 

[ToneDog]

Marner is at the mercy of his opposition as far as time and space goes. If they crank up the intensity and take away his time and space he becomes a puck flipper.

I thought you were going to say, he becomes Alex Kerfoot but a puck flipper is a pretty good description.

 

[Racer88]

He could drop off a cliff in 3-5 years. His goal scoring has been trending down since he put up his max of 35. His skating is average, he is small and softer than butter. Only a fool would pay him the same money for those years that the Leafs are prepared to. I'd take the money and run but then again I am not a greedy SOB.

You are 100% correct

 

[conFABulator]

Oops.

I have no idea if Ranta will sign soon or not. I just have two thoughts:

1)
12.5 might be reasonable by some standards, but even at 11 he won't be worth it if he keeps choking in the playoffs. If he doesn't play like an elite forward in the playoffs this spring, I would not sign him, period. And yes that means I would not sign him before the playoffs no matter what.

2)
IMO it's hard to argue that Marner is worth even a penny more than Ranta, but I wouldn't be surprised to see our genius management group pay him more anyway.

I also would like to see Marner signed only after the playoffs having said this with the cap going up the definition of what's reasonable compensation for someone who brings what minor does also goes up. There's nothing harder to do in the NHL than to acquire top level talent, we don't want monitor to walk if we don't know where we're going to spend the money and now we need to look at free agents and potential trades. I feel getting Marner at 12 million dollars annually if that is close to what rent then gets is something we can consider moving on sooner rather than later