Rumor: 2023-2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Off-season is in full swing

[Balthazar]

Or the classic Bozak + 2nd

G has value, but it has to be to the right teams. Many teams have a pretty strong size bias and defensemen of his stature are simply harder to move. This isn't helped by showings G has had in the playoffs. So even if he is really a similar caliber player (IMO) to Spurgeon, he's got a tad less value. Seen more as a good middle pairing puck mover who isn't going to be a driver in the playoffs. Which means you're really trying to thread the needle on teams wanting him. Contenders won't pay up in a hockey trade as G is unlikely a needle mover. The mid level teams need to not have a strong bias against small defensemen. The low level teams also need to not have that bias and have players the Avs desire to fill out the lineup.

His contract is also not that great in the current context. We all thought he'd be outplaying his contract after a couple of years but he isn't.

If he were to become UFA tomorrow I don't know if he'd get 5M AAV with term on the market.

 

[henchman21]

His contract is also not that great in the current context. We all thought he'd be outplaying his contract after a couple of years but he isn't.

If he were to become UFA tomorrow I don't know if he'd get 5M AAV with term on the market.

If we're talking a pure open market, I still think he would... but it is debatable. He's not as flawed defensively as other smaller defensemen, but his offense isn't as dynamic either. There isn't a whole lot to compare to... Spurgeon and maybe Krug (though Krug is a much better PP QB) are the closest. Ghost, Barrie, and TDA are much more dynamic, but with much worse flaws defensively (and TDA has additional issues). It certainly isn't an extreme bargain at this point.

 

[AvsFan2123]

Let’s just say I don’t work very hard at my job and I’ve been messing around on CapFriendly for the 25/26 season, and uh. We’re in for a crunch. I set the cap at what it’s believed to be then (92M). I have a hard time filling out a full roster. I dumped Manson back to Anaheim as I’m assuming he’d accept a trade back there, and I dumped Girard on Chicago before his M-NTC kicks in this next summer. I re-signed Toews and Rantanen to fair market deals, Toews def a little less. Let’s say I went cheaper AAV but I gave him 7 years. Even then, Georgiev needs to be re-signed. Guess we gotta hope for some guys to be still around contributing on cheap deals (JLF, Pavel, LOC, Malinski), or some guys are on ELC’s (Gulyayev, Ritchie, Behrens). The upcoming summers will get more interesting

 

[CobraAcesS]

Don't get it? This is around the egoist phase of children where going to Toys-r-us for the first time is like giving Valley Girl a shopping spree at Harrods. Nobody would know what to buy because of how amazing everything is.

I fkn miss Toys R US, and not even for my kids alone lmao.

 

[henchman21]

Let’s just say I don’t work very hard at my job and I’ve been messing around on CapFriendly for the 25/26 season, and uh. We’re in for a crunch. I set the cap at what it’s believed to be then (92M). I have a hard time filling out a full roster. I dumped Manson back to Anaheim as I’m assuming he’d accept a trade back there, and I dumped Girard on Chicago before his M-NTC kicks in this next summer. I re-signed Toews and Rantanen to fair market deals, Toews def a little less. Let’s say I went cheaper AAV but I gave him 7 years. Even then, Georgiev needs to be re-signed. Guess we gotta hope for some guys to be still around contributing on cheap deals (JLF, Pavel, LOC, Malinski), or some guys are on ELC’s (Gulyayev, Ritchie, Behrens). The upcoming summers will get more interesting

Yeah this writing has been on the wall for a while. MacK's sweetheart deal ending simply kills room for depth. The excess contract value is drying up and the Avs will have to find a way to create some of that excess value. This year that is taking risks on RyJo and Drouin. Other years it might be overpayment trades (Tampa has gone this route) or ELCs.

The 92m is about as high as the cap can go under the stipulated agreement with the CBA MOU returning to play. The cap can only go up a maximum of 5% a year. So from here, that's a shade over $92m. The CBA ends with the 25/26 season provided the Covid escrow is less than 125m by the start of the 24/25 season... and it will be. So Sept 16, 2026-on, will all have to be negotiated... which could raise the odds of a different agreement for 25/26, but for this thought experiment we will let that slide. There are some other quirks like using the 2 years prior HRR and then the rough costs of pensions and health insurance for former players that gets deducted out of the players' share. Another wrinkle there was the 20-21 deferred comp (2 more payments left there).

Where the 26/27 cap goes will be a real battle IMO. There isn't the huge incentive for both sides to not fight. Players really want to get rid of escrow (that'll lower the cap by 6%). Owners want to get rid of the growth provision and keep the lag formula provision. It will be setting up for some real fireworks on those three items specifically.

 

[Foppa2118]

Let’s just say I don’t work very hard at my job and I’ve been messing around on CapFriendly for the 25/26 season, and uh. We’re in for a crunch. I set the cap at what it’s believed to be then (92M). I have a hard time filling out a full roster. I dumped Manson back to Anaheim as I’m assuming he’d accept a trade back there, and I dumped Girard on Chicago before his M-NTC kicks in this next summer. I re-signed Toews and Rantanen to fair market deals, Toews def a little less. Let’s say I went cheaper AAV but I gave him 7 years. Even then, Georgiev needs to be re-signed. Guess we gotta hope for some guys to be still around contributing on cheap deals (JLF, Pavel, LOC, Malinski), or some guys are on ELC’s (Gulyayev, Ritchie, Behrens). The upcoming summers will get more interesting

What were Toews and Mikko's fair market deals?

 

[Balthazar]

Let’s just say I don’t work very hard at my job and I’ve been messing around on CapFriendly for the 25/26 season, and uh. We’re in for a crunch. I set the cap at what it’s believed to be then (92M). I have a hard time filling out a full roster. I dumped Manson back to Anaheim as I’m assuming he’d accept a trade back there, and I dumped Girard on Chicago before his M-NTC kicks in this next summer. I re-signed Toews and Rantanen to fair market deals, Toews def a little less. Let’s say I went cheaper AAV but I gave him 7 years. Even then, Georgiev needs to be re-signed. Guess we gotta hope for some guys to be still around contributing on cheap deals (JLF, Pavel, LOC, Malinski), or some guys are on ELC’s (Gulyayev, Ritchie, Behrens). The upcoming summers will get more interesting

Byram will probably get a hefty raise too that same year

We can't afford Toews, it's as simple as that.

 

[AvsFan2123]

What were Toews and Mikko's fair market deals?

Well I did end up saying I gave Toews than he could’ve got on open market. But I went longer term to make him more inclined to the deal. He’s gonna be 30 in the middle of this upcoming year. So I did 7 years at $7.5M AAV. This contract will obviously age horribly in the last couple years, but we will most likely not be contenders by then. This is to keep a defenseman on our team we desperately need and are MUCH worse without. So that’s my reasoning.

Mikko I did 8 years and $11.75M AAV.

Byram will probably get a hefty raise too that same year

We can't afford Toews, it's as simple as that.

I did a fairly long deal for Byram. I accidentally deleted it but it was something like 6 years, $6M AAV. I did Georgiev at 5 and 5 I’m pretty sure. You don’t HAVE to resign him, Avs can keep going the route they do and find underplayed, diamonds in the rough type. I was just burnt from working at this than my job lol. I agree we probably can’t afford Toews, but I’m in the mold of we need him more than we can replace. Perfect partner for Makar. Want him around while we’re still Cup hunting. We can pay the price of the too long contract when we’re declining.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

The last NHLer the Avs traded that had more than one year left on his deal was Duchene, even then it required him to beg to get traded.

If a player has multiple years left he most likely isn’t going anywhere.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Let’s just say I don’t work very hard at my job and I’ve been messing around on CapFriendly for the 25/26 season, and uh. We’re in for a crunch. I set the cap at what it’s believed to be then (92M). I have a hard time filling out a full roster. I dumped Manson back to Anaheim as I’m assuming he’d accept a trade back there, and I dumped Girard on Chicago before his M-NTC kicks in this next summer. I re-signed Toews and Rantanen to fair market deals, Toews def a little less. Let’s say I went cheaper AAV but I gave him 7 years. Even then, Georgiev needs to be re-signed. Guess we gotta hope for some guys to be still around contributing on cheap deals (JLF, Pavel, LOC, Malinski), or some guys are on ELC’s (Gulyayev, Ritchie, Behrens). The upcoming summers will get more interesting

Yep, a very select few of us have been preaching this for quite a while.


This summer is nothing compared to what the next few years will look like. That along with the aging core are the reasons why we should have been all in last year, and we should be all in this year.

The window is closing quickly as the cap gets tighter and tighter and regression starts to really ramp up at some point in the next 2-3 years.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

The Avs should have been all in ever since the window opened. They waited nearly two decades for a team that was good enough only to get conservative near the finish line. Absurd decision.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Or the classic Bozak + 2nd

G has value, but it has to be to the right teams. Many teams have a pretty strong size bias and defensemen of his stature are simply harder to move. This isn't helped by showings G has had in the playoffs. So even if he is really a similar caliber player (IMO) to Spurgeon, he's got a tad less value. Seen more as a good middle pairing puck mover who isn't going to be a driver in the playoffs. Which means you're really trying to thread the needle on teams wanting him. Contenders won't pay up in a hockey trade as G is unlikely a needle mover. The mid level teams need to not have a strong bias against small defensemen. The low level teams also need to not have that bias and have players the Avs desire to fill out the lineup.

What about just being a Canadian team that can't get free agents?

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Yep, a very select few of us have been preaching this for quite a while.


This summer is nothing compared to what the next few years will look like. That along with the aging core are the reasons why we should have been all in last year, and we should be all in this year.

The window is closing quickly as the cap gets tighter and tighter and regression starts to really ramp up at some point in the next 2-3 years.

Nobody is really willing to discuss it, but trading Rantanen with a year left would give us some good pieces, some good picks and most importantly the cap space needed to shuffle salaries around.

That being said, trading Rants could just as easily slam that window shut because a core of MacKinnon-RyJo-Makar-Toews is not good enough. They never should have gone all in on wingers and left the center depth trash.

 

[henchman21]

Nobody is really willing to discuss it, but trading Rantanen with a year left would give us some good pieces, some good picks and most importantly the cap space needed to shuffle salaries around.

That being said, trading Rants could just as easily slam that window shut because a core of MacKinnon-RyJo-Makar-Toews is not good enough. They never should have gone all in on wingers and left the center depth trash.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Nobody is really willing to discuss it, but trading Rantanen with a year left would give us some good pieces, some good picks and most importantly the cap space needed to shuffle salaries around.

That being said, trading Rants could just as easily slam that window shut because a core of MacKinnon-RyJo-Makar-Toews is not good enough. They never should have gone all in on wingers and left the center depth trash.

IMO he definitely shouldn't be untouchable. But there's a lot of risk if you move him. For one, it absolutely would be shutting this first window down right away. We won't get any pieces for Mikko that would have an immediate impact anywhere close to what Mikko would provide.

But, if the Avs were willing to accept transitioning into a short ~2-3 year retool, trading Mikko could get them the right future core pieces that would allow a new secondary window to open up where Mackinnon and Makar could still be legitimate core pieces in that window.

Basically, it would be:

- 1 more year going completely all the f*** in this year. Trade the 204 1st + Girard + whatever they need to trade to make the best possible run this year at winning.

- Trade Mikko in July 2024 for a massive haul. Particularly, try to target a young Center with big upside as part of the return. Also, don't re-sign Toews. Don't want that contract on the books in 3-4 years when we try to open window #2.

- Retool for ~2 years, accumulate a couple of high draft picks(Kind of like the Blues this year), and give those picks a little time to hopefully get NHL ready.

- Sort out the cap situation in that time frame and re-establish the new core... It would likely include Makar and Byram on the back end and Mackinnon, maybe Nichushkin from the Forwards, and then if they make good trades, a high end 2C from the Rantanen trade and then you hope the 1-2 top 10 picks you make are hits and get you another Top 4D or top line winger.


If they do it properly, a brand new window could open up in ~3-4 years from now. With Mack still 30/31, Makar 28/29, Byram still 25/26... And hopefully you've got a ~23 year old 2C, a ~22 year old Top 4D, and a ~21 year old top line winger where all of these guys are either still on ELCs or on that first long term deal post ELC likely in the $8-9M range.




For arguments sake... Say they trade a signed Rantanen to Seattle next summer for Wright + Seattle 2024 1st. Tank the 2025 season, pick Top 10 and grab a top end RD from the draft.


In ~2 years time you've got Mack/Wright/Ritchie down the middle. Byram/Gulyayev on the Left side. Makar + that Top 10 pick on the Right side.


Again, lots of risk that the trades and draft picks don't work out and that 2nd window just never opens up... but there's also upside to open up an even atronger window then what we have right now.

 

[LOFIN]

Tank the 2025 season, pick Top 10 and grab a top end RD from the draft.

Tank with MacKinnon and Makar on the roster? Lol. Are you going to hammer in their knees and put them to LTIR for the season?

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Tank with MacKinnon and Makar on the roster? Lol.

Certainly possible. Two players can't carry a bad roster.

 

[Avaholic29]

We are back to the avs being bottom feeders in two years? Good god..

 

[LOFIN]

Certainly possible. Two players can't carry a bad roster.

Two top-3 players in their position can carry the team enough that they won't be in a lottery position. And we would still have good players on top of those two no? Not to mention quality coaching.

A re-tool in a way you suggested might work in EA Sports. Not in real world. You are not going to be able to totally dismantle the team in that fashion in that time period. And for what, hope that it's a good draft and you actually end up with a good player? Look how random the drafts are, not to mention our past success with the draft. That would be an insane strategy. You tank because you really don't have any other choice and you have nothing to lose. You still might not become good. Yeah, Chicago got lucky. Look at Detroit, San Jose, Arizona... Those teams have sucked and will suck for years without elite talent (apart from Seider in Detroit).

 

[TruePowerSlave]

There is one major issue that basically makes any re-tool/short rebuilds to become a force again nearly impossible.

This team is complete garbage in the draft unless they are basically forced in a can't miss situation.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Yeah, like I said, trading Rants very well could shut everything down...even a second window if not done properly.

It would take the balls the likes of which we haven't seen from any GM in quite some time to actually trade Rants. It would require complete buy-in from the owner that you are retooling and expect it to take 2 years only. I just don't ever see the stars aligning for any team to do a big retool to sustain part of their original core, supplant them with youth and still be contenders. It seems like it is always a slow slide into mediocracy due to lack of depth and aging, expensive cores. It seems the last team to seemlessly switch from core to core was Detroit and they did it through lucky drafting with Datsyuk and Zetterberg (6th and 7th rounders respectively).

It would be interesting to see a team try to take a different approach, but on second thoughts maybe it shouldn't be the Avs to take the first stab at it. *LOL*

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

There is one major issue that basically makes any re-tool/short rebuilds to become a force again nearly impossible.

This team is complete garbage in the draft unless they are basically forced in a can't miss situation.

They're the best in the league with Top 10 picks... So get them one of those and they're probably going to draft a star player with it.

Otherwise yeah the drafting is shit. But that's part of the reason why you target players that are already drafted and developing. IE a Shane Wright or Kent Johnson type.

Yeah, like I said, trading Rants very well could shut everything down...even a second window if not done properly.

It would take the balls the likes of which we haven't seen from any GM in quite some time to actually trade Rants. It would require complete buy-in from the owner that you are retooling and expect it to take 2 years only. I just don't ever see the stars aligning for any team to do a big retool to sustain their core and actually be contenders. It seems like it is always a slow slide into mediocracy due to lack of depth and aging, expensive cores.

It would be interesting to see a team try to take a different approach, but on second thoughts maybe it shouldn't be the Avs to take the first stab at it. *LOL*

In some ways you could make the argument the Huberdeau trade from Zito kind of went down this path.

This past year was supposed to be a transition year for them as well, and they were 1 point away from missing the playoffs before going on a miracle/Bob driven cup run.

But yeah, you never see GMs do it because they end up getting fired before they'd have a chance to see the entire thing through. As a GM you'd need a lot of confidence in your ownership group to be patient and see what the plan is to allow trading a big time player while you're thought of as a cup contender and then go through 2 years of being a fringe playoff team or outside looking in even.

 

[Balthazar]

If we want a second window with Mack and Makar we need to start the retool in 2025-26.

We can't carry bad contracts into the other window because cap space will be our only friend...that means Landy can't come back and we can't re-up Toews.

Nuke will be a bad contract if he's still here but right now he'd be the only one.

That said we'd have to maximize our assets and that means trading Rants for a huge haul next summer. Trading Toews would have been helpful too but that's not happening.

Or we can keep Toews, keep Rants and watch Makar piss away the 2nd half of his prime on a team fighting for a playoff spot, Pens style.

 

[Belgican]

Keep your best players at all cost, the Avs just have an abundance of these, which make their choice somewhat difficult, I would say no matters what, it’s a good problem to have

 

[CobraAcesS]

If we want a second window with Mack and Makar we need to start the retool in 2025-26.

We can't carry bad contracts into the other window because cap space will be our only friend...that means Landy can't come back and we can't re-up Toews.

Nuke will be a bad contract if he's still here but right now he'd be the only one.

That said we'd have to maximize our assets and that means trading Rants for a huge haul next summer. Trading Toews would have been helpful too but that's not happening.

Or we can keep Toews, keep Rants and watch Makar piss away the 2nd half of his prime on a team fighting for a playoff spot, Pens style.

I really don't think they're going to just sign a player they know will be on a bad contract. Nuke might, but he's so good at both ends his production isn't even close to the most valuable thing he brings. He was/is young enough to be good for most of it I think.

With Wood, I think they're hoping the cap inflation for contract prices at lower levels keeps him valuable. CMac basically said as much. He's the new Cody Mack, just more skilled lol.

Trading Mikko will happen though if he doesn't extend at an amount that doesn't shut the door. I don't think they'll cave, they didn't with Landy.

Mack & Makar are the only two with blank checks going forward.