Rumor: 2023-2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Off-season is in full swing

[hoserthehorrible]

You gotta look at last summer's projected roster, not what happened after injuries or bad performances.

You can swap JTC and Newhook at 2C/3C if you want, but Drouin this summer is replacing Landy last summer and Wood is ERod.

I'm betting Drouin has better production this year than Landy did last year.

 

[henchman21]

So the Stars older players won’t be at risk of age regression but the Avs players certainly will. Got it.

Also, the Avs will have the same if not more man games lost than they did last year but Dallas will be completely healthy like last year. Got it.

Lastly, the team with the #1 odds to win the Cup will most likely be a wild card team. Got it.

Make it make sense.

Breaking these all down:

Both teams are are prime ages for regression, but for vastly different reasons. Most significant regression starts between 26-28, major regression starts at 30. The average age of the teams as currently constructed are remarkably similar. Avs are 28.59 and Dallas is 28.61. But that might be slightly deceiving... Avs are primarily a 27-29 year old team. Taking into consideration players who have early season birthdays (like Mikko turning 27 in Oct), the Avs only have 7 players that fall outside that range. There are 4 above (JMFJ, Manson, Frank, and Cogs) and 3 below (Makar, G, and Byram). Dallas is a much more wildly variable team in age. They have 8 players below 27 and 10 players above 29. Those 10 players above 29 make for a much higher risk of the major individual regression happening... but the Avs being a team where only 3 players are below the typical first stage of regression, make the team as a whole more exposed to a lighter individually, but more widespread amongst regression. Both teams are on the older side in the NHL. Vegas at the average age of 28.26 (half yearish younger than either team) was the oldest team to win the Cup since the 2009 Red Wings.

Dallas has typically been less injured than the Avs, not as much as last season... but the trend is they are a less injured team. Over the last 15 years, Stars have been below average 11/15 years with one year where they lead the league (20-21). Overall, they are roughly in the middle. Avs on the other hand, have been above average 11/15 years while never leading the league. They average out to the 4th most injured team in the league over the last 15 years. It is an odd thing, but the Avs are always one of the most injured teams.

Betting odds are more about money flow and maximising profits than getting it correct. They should really have zero part in team quality evaluation.

We have the superstars, they don’t.

Makar and Byram can both certainly have better years than they did last year.

There’s no sense in debating this though, posters will form opinions and run with them regardless. I mean, when adding a player like Duchene for Domi is considered a big upgrade, people are seeing two different realities.

I just think the pessimism around here is unwarranted for the literal favorites in the entire league.

Robertson and Heiskanen are legit superstars. Robertson outscored Rantanen last year and has 2 40g seasons under his belt. If Rants is a superstar, Robertson is too. Heiskanen is a near PPG defensemen with elite ability in his own zone. He's a step down from Makar, but still a very clear top 10 defensemen.

 

[Balthazar]

Phew.

I thought it was clear that we were talking about aging and not past accomplishment.

 

[UncleRisto]

I thought it was clear that we were talking about aging and not past accomplishment.

I don't care.

 

[Balthazar]

I don't care.

Yeah, I can see that.

 

[LOFIN]

We have the superstars, they don’t.

This. I love Hintz and Heiskanen, and Robertson had a fantastic season. But MacK, Makar and Mikko are arguably top-3 in their positions. With the Stars, Heiskanen may be a top-5 D, Robertson may be a top-10 winger, and Hintz may be a top-15C. We shouldn't just take a look at the depth of the Stars and say oh well, that's where the difference comes. The top players are not on the same level.

 

[Foppa2118]

This is a perfect example of bias. I bet you don't remember all the players that were brought here and didn't get any better.

I didn't say fans don't have bias. I said the models don't have bias, but you cut that part out.

Either way the Avs are clearly better than most if not at all teams at getting the most out of certain types of players. You are objectively wrong to say there is bias involved in this statement.

The evidence is clear. You can bring up all the fringe or non NHLers as a counter point if you like, the Avs have more situations like Kadri, Donskoi, Nuke, Lehky, Burakovsky, Saad, Malgin, etc, than most teams.

 

[NateTheGreat]

Breaking these all down:

Both teams are are prime ages for regression, but for vastly different reasons. Most significant regression starts between 26-28, major regression starts at 30. The average age of the teams as currently constructed are remarkably similar. Avs are 28.59 and Dallas is 28.61. But that might be slightly deceiving... Avs are primarily a 27-29 year old team. Taking into consideration players who have early season birthdays (like Mikko turning 27 in Oct), the Avs only have 7 players that fall outside that range. There are 4 above (JMFJ, Manson, Frank, and Cogs) and 3 below (Makar, G, and Byram). Dallas is a much more wildly variable team in age. They have 8 players below 27 and 10 players above 29. Those 10 players above 29 make for a much higher risk of the major individual regression happening... but the Avs being a team where only 3 players are below the typical first stage of regression, make the team as a whole more exposed to a lighter individually, but more widespread amongst regression. Both teams are on the older side in the NHL. Vegas at the average age of 28.26 (half yearish younger than either team) was the oldest team to win the Cup since the 2009 Red Wings.

Dallas has typically been less injured than the Avs, not as much as last season... but the trend is they are a less injured team. Over the last 15 years, Stars have been below average 11/15 years with one year where they lead the league (20-21). Overall, they are roughly in the middle. Avs on the other hand, have been above average 11/15 years while never leading the league. They average out to the 4th most injured team in the league over the last 15 years. It is an odd thing, but the Avs are always one of the most injured teams.

Betting odds are more about money flow and maximising profits than getting it correct. They should really have zero part in team quality evaluation.


Robertson and Heiskanen are legit superstars. Robertson outscored Rantanen last year and has 2 40g seasons under his belt. If Rants is a superstar, Robertson is too. Heiskanen is a near PPG defensemen with elite ability in his own zone. He's a step down from Makar, but still a very clear top 10 defensemen.

In regards to injuries, past performance does not guarantee future results. Avs had a short off-season after winning the cup, that won’t be the case this season. I’d say it’s more realistic to expect the man games lost gap between these teams to narrow this season, not widen.

1) Say or feel how you want about betting odds, but they absolutely can play a part in team evaluation. Very smart people are involved in these markets, and yes it’s about profit, but you simply can’t ignore one team being at the top everywhere you look. That says a lot about what the outside of HF feels about our team.

2) Rants is a superstar in the playoffs too. 5 straight ppg+ playoffs runs. They also have no one close to Mackinnon, you didn’t mention that. Finally, Makar is the best D in the league. He impacts the game in ways Heiskanen never will be able to.

 

[henchman21]

In regards to injuries, past performance does not guarantee future results. Avs had a short off-season after winning the cup, that won’t be the case this season. I’d say it’s more realistic to expect the man games lost gap between these teams to narrow this season, not widen.

1) Say or feel how you want about betting odds, but they absolutely can play a part in team evaluation. Very smart people are involved in these markets, and yes it’s about profit, but you simply can’t ignore one team being at the top everywhere you look. That says a lot about what the outside of HF feels about our team.

2) Rants is a superstar in the playoffs too. 5 straight ppg+ playoffs runs. They also have no one close to Mackinnon, you didn’t mention that. Finally , Makar is the D in the league. He impacts the game in ways Heiskanen never will be able to.

It’s fine though, underestimate the Avs, I’m not trying to convince anyone, just living in reality.

Past doesn't indicate future... what past can show is a pure difference in philosophy though. Avs have traditionally taken a very conservative route with injuries and hold players out longer than the norm. They also have taken more risks with known injury prone players. Once or twice is anomaly, being top 5 over the course of 15 years indicates a philosophical difference compared to most of the league.

Betting odds are frequently wrong too. The smart people are not focusing on the quality of the team, they are focusing on the money inflow, risk mitigation and profit. Their job isn't to evaluate the best team, it is to evaluate the way to maximize profits. It can intersect, but it doesn't always intersect. I mean Boston as the third best odds is absurd.

The Stars don't have MacK and Makar is the best D in the league... but as Vegas (and many other teams over the years) showed, you don't need MacK nor do you need the best D in the league to win. Stars have depth and goaltending.

On the playoffs part, Hintz was amazing in their run last year. He isn't as proven, but they have guys who played really well in the playoffs last year and in past years.

 

[dahrougem2]

The Stars better pray Oettinger's last playoffs was a one time thing and he doesn't develop postseason heebie jeebies ala Jacob Markstrom

 

[Foppa2118]

The teams with depth and goaltending, but less high end talent are by far the outliers for Cup winners. Usually you need that high end skill to be the difference maker at some point in the playoffs.

Just look at Seattle last year. Or Montreal a couple years ago. Or the Islanders every year.

This is why the Avs will have a shot at the Cup for a while and why the Pens and Bolts are always in the mix with a chance.

 

[sethro109]

Breaking these all down:

Both teams are are prime ages for regression, but for vastly different reasons. Most significant regression starts between 26-28, major regression starts at 30. The average age of the teams as currently constructed are remarkably similar. Avs are 28.59 and Dallas is 28.61. But that might be slightly deceiving... Avs are primarily a 27-29 year old team. Taking into consideration players who have early season birthdays (like Mikko turning 27 in Oct), the Avs only have 7 players that fall outside that range. There are 4 above (JMFJ, Manson, Frank, and Cogs) and 3 below (Makar, G, and Byram). Dallas is a much more wildly variable team in age. They have 8 players below 27 and 10 players above 29. Those 10 players above 29 make for a much higher risk of the major individual regression happening... but the Avs being a team where only 3 players are below the typical first stage of regression, make the team as a whole more exposed to a lighter individually, but more widespread amongst regression. Both teams are on the older side in the NHL. Vegas at the average age of 28.26 (half yearish younger than either team) was the oldest team to win the Cup since the 2009 Red Wings.

Dallas has typically been less injured than the Avs, not as much as last season... but the trend is they are a less injured team. Over the last 15 years, Stars have been below average 11/15 years with one year where they lead the league (20-21). Overall, they are roughly in the middle. Avs on the other hand, have been above average 11/15 years while never leading the league. They average out to the 4th most injured team in the league over the last 15 years. It is an odd thing, but the Avs are always one of the most injured teams.

Betting odds are more about money flow and maximising profits than getting it correct. They should really have zero part in team quality evaluation.


Robertson and Heiskanen are legit superstars. Robertson outscored Rantanen last year and has 2 40g seasons under his belt. If Rants is a superstar, Robertson is too. Heiskanen is a near PPG defensemen with elite ability in his own zone. He's a step down from Makar, but still a very clear top 10 defensemen.

You keep saying you hate the Stars, but I'm starting to have my doubts.

 

[henchman21]

The Stars better pray Oettinger's last playoffs was a one time thing and he doesn't develop postseason heebie jeebies ala Jacob Markstrom

Yeah they need to figure that out. Was it just too much of a workload last year? Was it a one off (he's been great in other playoff appearances)? Or does he have the yips?

You keep saying you hate the Stars, but I'm starting to have my doubts.
View attachment 731154

I'm beginning to lose count with which team I'm actually a fan of now. So many over the years.

 

[NateTheGreat]

Past doesn't indicate future... what past can show is a pure difference in philosophy though. Avs have traditionally taken a very conservative route with injuries and hold players out longer than the norm. They also have taken more risks with known injury prone players. Once or twice is anomaly, being top 5 over the course of 15 years indicates a philosophical difference compared to most of the league.

This is a fair argument, I’d tend to agree Avs are more conservative than most. However, you’d think in the middle of cup contention years that the players would have to be unable to play for them to miss games when they really matter. Correct me if I’m wrong but I believe Colorado lost its third most man games in franchise history.

Let me ask you this, if the O/U for man games lost was set at the amount that the Avs and Stars each lost last year for their respective teams, wouldn’t you be inclined to take the under for the Avs and the over for the Stars?

 

[Foppa2118]

Stars have youth that are taking over the team, we don't.

Again, the Stars are not Benn and Seguin anymore. They have been drafting real well while we were drafting like shit and trading our picks for rentals.

What a misleading statement.

The Avs suck at drafting in later rounds, but their Cup win was led by draft picks in MacKinnon, Rantanen, Landeskog, Makar, and Byram who apart from Landy, have plenty of years left.

And the Avs rarely trade their picks and prospects for rentals. That's specifically why they re-signed Lehkonen, Manson, Colton, and Georgiev long term.

 

[Avs9296]

EVERYONE IS BETTER THAN THE AVS!

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

*PANIC HANDS*

 

[henchman21]

This is a fair argument, I’d tend to agree Avs are more conservative than most. However, you’d think in the middle of cup contention years that the players would have to be unable to play for them to miss games when they really matter. Correct me if I’m wrong but I believe Colorado lost its third most man games in franchise history.

Let me ask you this, if the O/U for man games lost was set at the amount that the Avs and Stars each lost last year for their respective teams, wouldn’t you be inclined to take the under for the Avs and the over for the Stars?

I don't know where it stands in franchise history, but it is up there. Still the Avs are going to miss a ton. They are starting the season at +82.

I'd say under and over are the ways to go. But ask it a different way, Avs 7th in man games lost and Dallas 20th. I'd take the over and under for sure. It is just the way the teams and players are wired at this point.

Practically, I don't think health matters all that much outside the final stretch and playoffs. Even then, it is major injuries that matter. Guys play through things they have no business playing through in the playoffs.

 

[LTCPain75]

Yeah they need to figure that out. Was it just too much of a workload last year? Was it a one off (he's been great in other playoff appearances)? Or does he have the yips?


I'm beginning to lose count with which team I'm actually a fan of now. So many over the years.

Yips: The yips are involuntary wrist spasms that occur most commonly when golfers are trying to putt. However, the yips also can affect people who play other sports — such as cricket, darts and baseball. It was once thought that the yips were always associated with performance anxiety.

 

[Avaholic29]

The undercover stars fans in here really came out to play today!!

 

[henchman21]

Yips: The yips are involuntary wrist spasms that occur most commonly when golfers are trying to putt. However, the yips also can affect people who play other sports — such as cricket, darts and baseball. It was once thought that the yips were always associated with performance anxiety.

Better explanation

Yips - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Is this a term that isn’t common outside of NA?

 

[Foppa2118]

A lot of things have to go right for the Avs to win their offseason gambles. The issue is people are just assuming that Wood, RyJo and Drouin will all succeed even if the odds are against them.

Also people tend to assume that since we got a lot of injuries in recent years we won't get any this upcoming season. That's not how it works.

It's not "anti-Avs" to temper expectations.

A lot of things have to go right every year for every team if they want to win.

You're not tempering expectations by saying this about the Avs and nobody else, and making your own assumptions that things won't go right for the Avs.

If anything, the track record of the Avs pro scouts and front office would indicate that at least some of their new additions will work out well, and they had a lot of injuries the year they won the Cup too.

 

[NorthernAvsFan]

Jesus, now Winnipeg is projected to clear Colorado by ten points, while the latter drops to a wild card spot.

This off-season can’t end soon enough. Enough f***ing nonsense. Drop the puck.

Also… this Stars conversation never ceases to irritate me.

I respect them, and I think I was one of the 1st on this board last year to say they were a legit threat. Still feel the same way, but the incredibly rosy view of their future/roster in comparison to Colorado is puzzling to me.

 

[forsbergavs32]

I’m only familiar with one form of yip

 

[NorthernAvsFan]

Jesus, now Winnipeg is projected to clear Colorado by ten points, while the latter drops to a wild card spot.

This off-season can’t end soon enough. Enough f***ing nonsense. Drop the puck.

Also… this Stars conversation never ceases to irritate me.

I respect them, and I think I was one of the 1st last year to say they were a legit threat. Still feel the same way, but the incredibly rosy view of their future/roster in comparison to Colorado is puzzling to me

 

[UncleRisto]

Better explanation

Yips - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Is this a term that isn’t common outside of NA