Rumor: 2023-2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Off-season is in full swing

[Muffin]

That's a power ranking not most improved. The Athletic, The Hockey News, stats geeks, AP, NHL, etc are not favorable to the Avs improvement in the offseason. It is pretty consistent though that New Jersey, Dallas, and Pittsburgh have had great offseasons on all of those.

Here's the stat geek that everyone likes to post:



His model has Avs at 98 points. IIRC Avs were 110+ last year on his model.

More or less most people have the Avs high in the rankings based on past results of the team and star power the Avs have. Not the moves they made making the team dramatically better.

One piece of revisionist history is going on here (in general, not specifically you) though. People are acting like last summer it was widespread that the Avs would have a trying season and the offseason was bad. It was actually the minority of people here screaming that. Most were expecting to contend for the Cup and that the West would be a breeze. The Avs were by far the best team and just needed to make a simple move or two. That was common here and posters who went against that were mocked for a while...

I mean to be fair most people expected Landeskog to be back in January and didn't plan for Nuke to disappear. Wouldn't surprise me if the Avs at least made the conference finals with those two in the line up. Not sure if they would've beat Vegas though.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

That's a power ranking not most improved. The Athletic, The Hockey News, stats geeks, AP, NHL, etc are not favorable to the Avs improvement in the offseason. It is pretty consistent though that New Jersey, Dallas, and Pittsburgh have had great offseasons on all of those.

Here's the stat geek that everyone likes to post:



His model has Avs at 98 points. IIRC Avs were 110+ last year on his model.

More or less most people have the Avs high in the rankings based on past results of the team and star power the Avs have. Not the moves they made making the team dramatically better.

One piece of revisionist history is going on here (in general, not specifically you) though. People are acting like last summer it was widespread that the Avs would have a trying season and the offseason was bad. It was actually the minority of people here screaming that. Most were expecting to contend for the Cup and that the West would be a breeze. The Avs were by far the best team and just needed to make a simple move or two. That was common here and posters who went against that were mocked for a while...

A couple of things worth noting on the Avs model here:

- The absence of Landeskog is especially felt this time around. Last summer Landy was still in his model for our projections, this year he's not. That's honestly 5-6 point alone.

- People here are going to especially hate this, but his model doesn't like Byram very much.

- He also mentions Drouin and Johansen in the Top 6 as factors for such regression.


Honestly it makes sense. It's just funny how people here are blinded by the reality. It's very possible this team is a wild card next year. Johansen has been pretty poor for 3 of his last 4 years, and the one year he was great was a highly unsustainable 22% shooting percentage. And Drouin has Top 6 talent but he's also notoriously disinterested and lazy while being a liability defensively.

So, if the Avs get those versions of those two guys from the last few years that have been pretty poor... It only makes sense for regression to occur.

Personally I'm with you in that I think we get a much more motivated RyJo and as long as injuries haven't hurt his game, I think he bounces back really well here. Drouin can kind of do whatever, his impact on the wing isn't that important TBH.

I think we will out perform the models this year, but it really shouldn't be a surprise to people at all that we are where we are and if we finish that low, it shouldn't surprise people either.

 

[henchman21]

I mean to be fair most people expected Landeskog to be back in January and didn't plan for Nuke to disappear. Wouldn't surprise me if the Avs at least made the conference finals with those two in the line up. Not sure if they would've beat Vegas though.

Sure players were expected back, but outlook was pretty sunny (natural after a Cup win).

I personally don’t think the Avs beat Seattle with Nuke and certainly not Dallas. Landy is too big of a question in general. More or less though, Avs’ center depth got hugely exposed in the playoffs where it matters the most. It was addressed this offseason, but the questions are rather significant still.

FTR I vastly prefer this offseason. Avs are taking risks, but that is a shitload better than head in the sand pure projection. The cap is too much of an issue right now to really do much more than they have. If it doesn’t work, it just doesn’t work… they at least were aggressive.

 

[ABasin]

Outside of the purely Avs' circle, do you have receipts on that? Most places I see don't have the Avs amongst the most improved teams (Dallas, Pitts, New Jersey all tend to top most national lists). Avs tend to be near the bottom or not mentioned on most national lists I read. The stats community is predicting a rather large drop actually.

Now I don't share that opinion personally, but it is what is out there from what I see.

My personal opinion. Avs went high risk/high reward aggressively. They went out and got guys who have shown capability in needed roles in the past. Of that group, Colton is really the only one to have any sort of certainty in the role that will be asked of him... and he didn't really play that role much last season. The reward is high though. RyJo motivated and hopefully not regressed is a 1C level player... both are large questions. Drouin has legit top 6 talent. Colton has the pure talent to be a high end, buzzsaw 3C. Wood has been a very good 3W. How those splits fall will pretty much determine if the Avs are a top 3 contender in the West or if they are a wild card/3rd in the division team.

It's just funny how people here are blinded by the reality. It's very possible this team is a wild card next year.

Given the current state of the Central division, do you feel this is a realistic possibility?

Chicago and Arizona are going to stink. Winnipeg, Nashville, and and StL look meh at best (StL could have a very nice young team out there at some point, but not quite yet). I have a hard time believing any of those 5 are going to push the Avs in any serious way. It seems to me that the Central division has the fewest really good teams, compared to the other divisions.

Dallas has a good team, certainly. Minnesota will likely be decent.

I fully acknowledge the risk involved in a couple of the new players. But the Avs as a wild card? They'd have to pretty much implode, no?

 

[Bender]

That's a power ranking not most improved. The Athletic, The Hockey News, stats geeks, AP, NHL, etc are not favorable to the Avs improvement in the offseason. It is pretty consistent though that New Jersey, Dallas, and Pittsburgh have had great offseasons on all of those.

Here's the stat geek that everyone likes to post:



His model has Avs at 98 points. IIRC Avs were 110+ last year on his model.

More or less most people have the Avs high in the rankings based on past results of the team and star power the Avs have. Not the moves they made making the team dramatically better.

One piece of revisionist history is going on here (in general, not specifically you) though. People are acting like last summer it was widespread that the Avs would have a trying season and the offseason was bad. It was actually the minority of people here screaming that. Most were expecting to contend for the Cup and that the West would be a breeze. The Avs were by far the best team and just needed to make a simple move or two. That was common here and posters who went against that were mocked for a while...

I can't really take anyone seriously who figures that Blake Wheeler was apparently the biggest problem with the Winnipeg Jets and now that they've run him out of town - they'll instantly become the powerhouse that everyone always expected them to be ???

Sure they added Vilardi (good) and Iaffallo (meh) but they also lost PLD. Not sure that's a win there. They'll still have Scheifele & Hell-of-a-buick who can't wait to get the f*** out of town. Their D is still suspect and the same as last year.

I'll be pretty surprised if that team makes the playoffs as presently constructed. Way too much internal turmoil still with that team and what should be the leadership group. Anything can happen but to actually predict it is pretty stupid based on who the Jets have been these past 3-4 years with even better lineups.

 

[henchman21]

A couple of things worth noting on the Avs model here:

- The absence of Landeskog is especially felt this time around. Last summer Landy was still in his model for our projections, this year he's not. That's honestly 5-6 point alone.

- People here are going to especially hate this, but his model doesn't like Byram very much.

- He also mentions Drouin and Johansen in the Top 6 as factors for such regression.


Honestly it makes sense. It's just funny how people here are blinded by the reality. It's very possible this team is a wild card next year. Johansen has been pretty poor for 3 of his last 4 years, and the one year he was great was a highly unsustainable 22% shooting percentage. And Drouin has Top 6 talent but he's also notoriously disinterested and lazy while being a liability defensively.

So, if the Avs get those versions of those two guys from the last few years that have been pretty poor... It only makes sense for regression to occur.

Personally I'm with you in that I think we get a much more motivated RyJo and as long as injuries haven't hurt his game, I think he bounces back really well here. Drouin can kind of do whatever, his impact on the wing isn't that important TBH.

I think we will out perform the models this year, but it really shouldn't be a surprise to people at all that we are where we are and if we finish that low, it shouldn't surprise people either.

I'd argue the logic behind the drop makes sense. I think Landy is worth around 4 points in his model, but he certainly has a large impact on the regression as it goes from Landy to Drouin essentially. With Byram, people see the flash and cockiness in his game... and they've fallen in love with that. His actual impact on the ice is incredibly inconsistent and his defense leaves a lot to be desired. The analytics follow that.

Given the current state of the Central division, do you feel this is a realistic possibility?

Chicago and Arizona are going to stink. Winnipeg, Nashville, and and StL look meh at best (StL could have a very nice young team out there at some point, but not quite yet). I have a hard time believing any of those 5 are going to push the Avs in any serious way. It seems to me that the Central division has the fewest really good teams, compared to the other divisions.

Dallas has a good team, certainly. Minnesota will likely be decent.

I fully acknowledge the risk involved in a couple of the new players. But the Avs as a wild card? They'd have to pretty much implode, no?

I actually think it is in the realm of possibility. If RyJo plays like last season... we're looking at Colton, simply a better version of Compher as the 2C. That would basically mean the Avs didn't improve at center then. The wing... maybe slightly better? Defense is roughly the same. Then we can get into all the age regression and injury possibilities...

This is from a team that barely won the division. Stars got better. Minny is about the same, maybe marginally better. Winnipeg is still up in the air... starting today they are deeper. Nashville should be slightly better. Chicago will be a bad team still, but drastically improved.

The team that I personally think could take a large step forward is St Louis... Hayes is better today than ROR was. Vrana was a risky bet, but talent is clear. Kapanen and Blais improve their bottom 6 and fit their style. Young guys coming in (Alexandrov, Grieg, Neighbors, Bolduc) have a chance to improve the team.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Given the current state of the Central division, do you feel this is a realistic possibility?

Chicago and Arizona are going to stink. Winnipeg, Nashville, and and StL look meh at best (StL could have a very nice young team out there at some point, but not quite yet). I have a hard time believing any of those 5 are going to push the Avs in any serious way. It seems to me that the Central division has the fewest really good teams, compared to the other divisions.

Dallas has a good team, certainly. Minnesota will likely be decent.

I fully acknowledge the risk involved in a couple of the new players. But the Avs as a wild card? They'd have to pretty much implode, no?

If they don't do anything else, I would say its definitely possible.

It's not like the Central is bad. Minnesota and Dallas should be playoff teams. Winnipeg just got better according to models(I think this is debatable though).

I could easily see Dallas and Minnesota finishing ahead of then at least and again I think the models projecting ~100 points is pretty fair if RyJo and Cton don't have better years than last year.

 

[MacKaRant]

Here's the stat geek that everyone likes to post:

Ooof, that Winnipeg projection. He better hope that Hellebuyck and Scheifele get traded so that he can re-project that outcome.

 

[henchman21]

I can't really take anyone seriously who figures that Blake Wheeler was apparently the biggest problem with the Winnipeg Jets and now that they've run him out of town - they'll instantly become the powerhouse that everyone always expected them to be ???

Sure they added Vilardi (good) and Iaffallo (meh) but they also lost PLD. Not sure that's a win there. They'll still have Scheifele & Hell-of-a-buick who can't wait to get the f*** out of town. Their D is still suspect and the same as last year.

I'll be pretty surprised if that team makes the playoffs as presently constructed. Way too much internal turmoil still with that team and what should be the leadership group. Anything can happen but to actually predict it is pretty stupid based on who the Jets have been these past 3-4 years with even better lineups.

A model is just a model... frequently they aren't right. More or less is that the signs are out there that relentless, @Sea Eagles like positivity is unwarranted. Winnipeg is a weird one, but on paper, excluding the drama there, that isn't a bad team by any stretch. I just personally don't feel it is the team we see by November either.

 

[sethro109]

We have the best center, winger and defenseman in the division. So as long as we have MacK, Makar and Mikko on this team, I take us over any other central team.

 

[henchman21]

We have the best center, winger and defenseman in the division. So as long as we have MacK, Makar and Mikko on this team, I take us over any other central team.

Dallas has the 2nd best center, winger (Rob > Kap), and defensemen in the division along with having the best depth and the 2nd best goalie (Saros > Otter... I don't expect Helly to be in the Central)

 

[Avaholic29]

That's a power ranking not most improved. The Athletic, The Hockey News, stats geeks, AP, NHL, etc are not favorable to the Avs improvement in the offseason. It is pretty consistent though that New Jersey, Dallas, and Pittsburgh have had great offseasons on all of those.

Here's the stat geek that everyone likes to post:



His model has Avs at 98 points. IIRC Avs were 110+ last year on his model.

More or less most people have the Avs high in the rankings based on past results of the team and star power the Avs have. Not the moves they made making the team dramatically better.

One piece of revisionist history is going on here (in general, not specifically you) though. People are acting like last summer it was widespread that the Avs would have a trying season and the offseason was bad. It was actually the minority of people here screaming that. Most were expecting to contend for the Cup and that the West would be a breeze. The Avs were by far the best team and just needed to make a simple move or two. That was common here and posters who went against that were mocked for a while...

He also had the knights way lower than they finished last season haha, when you know your team, fancy stats on new players can be taken with a grain of salt until proven otherwise. Everyone wants to prop up the pro scouts and then give up on them Before the season even starts? Avs win west.

 

[LakewoodAvsFan]

All models are wrong, some models are useful.

 

[sethro109]

Dallas has the 2nd best center, winger (Rob > Kap), and defensemen in the division along with having the best depth and the 2nd best goalie (Saros > Otter... I don't expect Helly to be in the Central)

I could very well be wrong, because on paper Dallas should be good, but I just don't see it. I also like our defensive depth waaaaayyyyy more. As long as we have some semblance of a healthy roster this season, I just don't see us not being #1.

 

[henchman21]

He also had the knights way lower than they finished last season haha, when you know your team, fancy stats on new players can be taken with a grain of salt until proven otherwise. Everyone wants to prop up the pro scouts and then give up on them Before the season even starts? Avs win west.

Win the west is bold right now, but same was said here repeatedly last year too.

I could very well be wrong, because on paper Dallas should be good, but I just don't see it. I also like our defensive depth waaaaayyyyy more. As long as we have some semblance of a healthy roster this season, I just don't see us not being #1.

I can see the Avs being #1 in the division, but I don't see it being a certain thing. Even so, playoffs matter more. RyJo and Colton certainly have to click.

 

[Avaholic29]

I could very well be wrong, because on paper Dallas should be good, but I just don't see it. I also like our defensive depth waaaaayyyyy more. As long as we have some semblance of a healthy roster this season, I just don't see us not being #1.

Dallas looks identical to last season and we won the division whilst being completely dismantled with injuries all over the line up lol, these boards are in a bad state right now. A lot of crow to eat for some of these posters coming soon. Colton and johansen are astronomical playoff upgrades on compher and Newhook too, not even in the same ballpark.

 

[Avaholic29]

Win the west is bold right now, but same was said here repeatedly last year too.


I can see the Avs being #1 in the division, but I don't see it being a certain thing. Even so, playoffs matter more. RyJo and Colton certainly have to click.

Anyone saying avs win west post deadline was delusional, after losing nuke the chances became even lower. Not losing nuke and a good deadline (top 6 forward and couple depth guys) and we probably would’ve.

 

[henchman21]

Dallas looks identical to last season and we won the division whilst being completely dismantled with injuries all over the line up lol, these boards are in a bad state right now. A lot of crow to eat for some of these posters coming soon. Colton and johansen are astronomical playoff upgrades on compher and Newhook too, not even in the same ballpark.

Dallas went to the WCF and lost to Vegas via Otter playing poorly. Yet they are adding Duchene, Smith, Steel and Harley while losing Domi, Glendening, Olofsson, and MIller. Each one of those is an upgrade, some of them very significant.

 

[Balthazar]

Dallas looks identical to last season

They added a 70-75 pts winger for nothing

 

[henchman21]

Anyone saying avs win west post deadline was delusional, after losing nuke the chances became even lower. Not losing nuke and a good deadline (top 6 forward and couple depth guys) and we probably would’ve.

It was still stated quite a bit. There is a lot of hopium each summer.

 

[sethro109]

Winning the west will definitely be interesting. Vegas is always up there and Edmonton is a wild card. I still don't think Edmonton can win the cup with Nurse in their lineup at that price, but during the regular season they can definitely put up a lot of wins.

 

[Avs_19]

Let em all know, Travis! Need to get him signed already.

Don't @ me. Any of you. You know who you are.

(Please don't go look at his actual numbers. Thank you.)

 

[henchman21]

@Avs_19

 

[ANewHope]

It was still stated quite a bit. There is a lot of hopium each summer.

I feel like that’s not being honest tho. People were hopeful including myself because they anticipated moves. Everyone knew we needed a 2C. That the Avs needed to make moves. The hope was that we’d be good enough to be fine early in the year but the deadline would be key.

If you told people last summer there would be no trades and we’d punt the deadline while losing Landeskog for the year/Nuke for the playoffs people would have been far less optimistic.

Honestly given the lack of moves/injuries it’s pretty crazy we won the division/finished like 3rd in the West. Took Seattle to 7 with zero depth. Even if the Avs added Hayes/Domi at the TDL they probably make some noise last year.

 

[Balthazar]

"Reliable forward"

That said, wouldn't be surprised if Puljujarvi ends up here on a cheap 1 year deal.