Rumor: 2023-2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Off-season is in full swing

[Avs_19]

I have little doubt Grier screwed this up and now it's a matter of how much he can salvage. I believe he had a sucker ready to take Karlsson and give up good value before the TDL and that sucker was Holland. There were rumours the Sharks wanted two 1st rd picks and the Oilers pivoted to Ekholm after that.

Grier has an out that many teams don't get for a contract like this but instead of taking it, he's treating it as if he's in a position of strength because he's dealing a Norris winner. I bet last summer no team was going anywhere near Karlsson's deal. They got a great season out of him and now teams are apparently interested. Take what you can get and run.

 

[NorthernAvsFan]

I completely understand where Dom’s ranking comes from and I also don’t believe in it at all, because I understand how things work in Colorado.

Role players that come to Colorado often receive bumps to their underlying numbers and production. When you play in front of this defence and come into a place where you have more opportunity you thrive.

The Avalanche specifically target players who they believe can play better in a larger role within their system. They have done it over, and over, and over again.

This is exactly what’s happening with Johansen, Drouin, Colton, and Wood. Every single one of those players is going to play more minutes in Colorado than they did with their previous team. Are they going to be ‘better’ players? Maybe, maybe not, but they’re going to provide much more ‘value’ to Colorado than what the model shows. It’s just plain as day to see.

And it goes without saying that it was a weird year for Compher and Rodrigues in particular. The Avs played the hell out of them because of all the injuries, which is going to make them appear like bigger losses on the model than what they are in reality.

Just my two cents.

Dom isn’t going to look at anything beyond his data, which is completely rightful, because then it would just defeat the purpose of what he does. It has no effect on how I feel about the roster though. I feel way better about this team than I did heading into last year.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I completely understand where Dom’s ranking comes from and I also don’t believe in it at all, because I understand how things work in Colorado.

The thing is Dom even said this in his writeup about the Avs.

He basically said, the Avs have a history of having significant success with reclamation project signings and even though the Avs ranked 25th, he thinks the Avs pro scouts have earned a hefty dose of the benefit of the doubt and that he fully expects all of the Avs acquisitions this year to perform well above those projections based on last year.

But it's still completely fair to rank us that low. There's a boat load of uncertainty and risk around this roster right now. Even the most optimist people should be able to recognize that... well maybe not Sea Eagles and that Avsfan29 guy, but anybody who isn't a blind homer should be able to recognize the risk and uncertainty with the forward group next year.

Even still, I'm pretty optimistic that we get a lot out of the new guys.

 

[Avsboy]

Winners? Do they represent over stock and/or out of season players who will go for a discount?

Say what you will, but he's still a millionaire NHL player who leg presses more than you and me and will get out of this mess.

 

[GeoRox89]

Say what you will, but he's still a millionaire NHL player who leg presses more than you and me and will get out of this mess.

Winners is a huge chain in Canada that sells over stock or last seasons clothes from name brands at a discount

It’s what the talent agency name makes me think of

 

[Avsboy]

Winners is a huge chain in Canada that sells over stock or last seasons clothes from name brands at a discount

It’s what the talent agency name makes me think of

I shop there sometimes

 

[GeoRox89]

I shop there sometimes

It’s a bad association for the name of a talent agency. It makes it sound second rate

They could sign McDavid and Makar. I would still think the same thing about the name

 

[BobRossColton]

Just get Colton Sissons, nickname the 3rd line Colton's Wood ha ha

 

[Foppa2118]

When Compher and Newhook go elsewhere we are expecting them to still suck.

When RyJo and Drouin come here we are expecting them to stop sucking.

Dom's model isn't biased, fans are.

The models aren't biased. They're only as good as the data they have and the assumptions made to build the model. The relevant question isn't who's biased, it's who's correct.

Both models and in this case fans are relying on data to reach their conclusions. But Dom's data doesn't take into account the same data fans are using.

Fans are relying on data from how players like Kadri, Donskoi, Nuke, Lehky, Burakovsky, Saad, Malgin, etc performed on other teams, versus how they performed on the Avs, and if there are any similarities with Johansen and Drouin's situation.

Dom's models are in a vacuum. They are projecting that things will continue without factoring in the impact of external changes, because the model doesn't know that things have changed, let alone factor in the data from Kadri, Donskoi, Nuke, Lehky, Burakovksy, Saad, Malgin, etc.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

We all know Dom's model is flawed because it doesn't take Æ/60 into account.

That being said, I thought GSVA was supposed to be setup in such a way that a players' individual GSVA should remain the same regardless of outside influences. If Player A's GSVA = 1.2, it should be the same even if the player is traded from Team A to Team B. Or am I wrong here?

 

[NorthernAvsFan]

We all know Dom's model is flawed because it doesn't take Æ/60 into account.

That being said, I thought GSVA was supposed to be setup in such a way that a players' individual GSVA should remain the same regardless of outside influences. If Player A's GSVA = 1.2, it should be the same even if the player is traded from Team A to Team B. Or am I wrong here?

I don’t think it’s possible for that to be the case when a large part of it comes from underlying numbers and raw production.

 

[henchman21]

All of the models that try to get individual impact strive to have the impact get isolated. This includes Dom’s. The ability to get there in a dynamic team game remains mixed. Private data with locations and event tracking is getting far closer than public models.

 

[Vaslof]

I think something important to know is that hockey is way too complex to model accurately. All these guys are basically just giving it their best guess as to which statistics get weighed heavily and which do not. Even though the results are generated automatically from the data, doesn't mean they are free from human bias.

 

[chet1926]

When Compher and Newhook go elsewhere we are expecting them to still suck.

When RyJo and Drouin come here we are expecting them to stop sucking.

Dom's model isn't biased, fans are.

This pretty much nails it.

I bring up stats on RyJo and Drouin and they don't matter, according to most on these boards I'm out to lunch, and we are going to magically make them better than they've been in years.

But these same people just assume Newhook and JTC will suck on their new teams.

Just because we signed or traded for someone doesn't instantly make them good and guys we traded away or didn't resign aren't instantly bad.

I feel like many in here just assume that management can do no wrong and coaching can just "fix" someone who has been struggling.

We'll see how it turns out but saying there aren't huge question marks throughout the roster is just disingenuous homer bias.

 

[Balthazar]

Fans are relying on data from how players like Kadri, Donskoi, Nuke, Lehky, Burakovsky, Saad, Malgin, etc performed on other teams, versus how they performed on the Avs, and if there are any similarities with Johansen and Drouin's situation.

This is a perfect example of bias. I bet you don't remember all the players that were brought here and didn't get any better.

 

[Avaholic29]

This is a perfect example of bias. I bet you don't remember all the players that were brought here and didn't get any better.

Can you name some then? It’s funny how many of you are all of a sudden anti avs being good this year but many media heads think they are bolstered up. Guess the only way to know the answer is to wait and see but the roster today looks ten times better than it did going into last season and it’s not even a debate lol

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

 

[henchman21]

Can you name some then? It’s funny how many of you are all of a sudden anti avs being good this year but many media heads think they are bolstered up. Guess the only way to know the answer is to wait and see but the roster today looks ten times better than it did going into last season and it’s not even a debate lol

Outside of the purely Avs' circle, do you have receipts on that? Most places I see don't have the Avs amongst the most improved teams (Dallas, Pitts, New Jersey all tend to top most national lists). Avs tend to be near the bottom or not mentioned on most national lists I read. The stats community is predicting a rather large drop actually.

Now I don't share that opinion personally, but it is what is out there from what I see.

My personal opinion. Avs went high risk/high reward aggressively. They went out and got guys who have shown capability in needed roles in the past. Of that group, Colton is really the only one to have any sort of certainty in the role that will be asked of him... and he didn't really play that role much last season. The reward is high though. RyJo motivated and hopefully not regressed is a 1C level player... both are large questions. Drouin has legit top 6 talent. Colton has the pure talent to be a high end, buzzsaw 3C. Wood has been a very good 3W. How those splits fall will pretty much determine if the Avs are a top 3 contender in the West or if they are a wild card/3rd in the division team.

 

[shadow1]

This is a perfect example of bias. I bet you don't remember all the players that were brought here and didn't get any better.

Like?

If we're talking season-long players, I'd say Yakupov and Wilson. The former wouldn't have succeeded anywhere, and the latter was at least pretty good in Year 2.

Otherwise, it's been deadline guys like Brassard (awful), Eller (okay), Namestikov (pretty good), Soderberg (awful), and Sturm (meh). A mixed bag for sure, but a group comprised of mostly 4th liners that played <25 games doesn't offset the huge successes the Avalanche have had with other players.

 

[Mooserton]

Are people hand waving Dom’s model because it’s unfavorable to Drouin and Johansen? They are both dog water and not top six players.

This year will be much like the last. We’ll see a bump from hopefully a healthier defense and Nichushkin but Drouin is an older shittier Newhook and any points gain Johansen has on Compher will be washed by his lazy defensive play (I’m skeptical he’ll even have more points).

 

[AvalancheSpeedsters]

Well no more Bergeron pipe dream for us ….Wasn’t there a poster here who kept hoping we’d get him somehow? Sympathies to that Avs poster

 

[Avaholic29]

Outside of the purely Avs' circle, do you have receipts on that? Most places I see don't have the Avs amongst the most improved teams (Dallas, Pitts, New Jersey all tend to top most national lists). Avs tend to be near the bottom or not mentioned on most national lists I read. The stats community is predicting a rather large drop actually.

Now I don't share that opinion personally, but it is what is out there from what I see.

My personal opinion. Avs went high risk/high reward aggressively. They went out and got guys who have shown capability in needed roles in the past. Of that group, Colton is really the only one to have any sort of certainty in the role that will be asked of him... and he didn't really play that role much last season. The reward is high though. RyJo motivated and hopefully not regressed is a 1C level player... both are large questions. Drouin has legit top 6 talent. Colton has the pure talent to be a high end, buzzsaw 3C. Wood has been a very good 3W. How those splits fall will pretty much determine if the Avs are a top 3 contender in the West or if they are a wild card/3rd in the division team.

NHL Power Rankings: Which teams are on the rise at the mid-summer mark?

Though we have yet to see a Matthew Tkachuk-level trade this off-season, some big names have switched sweaters in the past month or so. Ryan Dixon takes a look at where each team stands at the mid-summer point.

www.sportsnet.ca

Don’t feel like digging for a whole bunch of different opinions but here’s one in the meantime.

Are people hand waving Dom’s model because it’s unfavorable to Drouin and Johansen? They are both dog water and not top six players.

This year will be much like the last. We’ll see a bump from hopefully a healthier defense and Nichushkin but Drouin is an older shittier Newhook and any points gain Johansen has on Compher will be washed by his lazy defensive play (I’m skeptical he’ll even have more points).

Compher is disgustingly overrated by some of you. 51 points for the first time in his career and it’s like that was his norm or something. Now go compare their playoff totals.

 

[forsbergavs32]

A live look at HFAvs

 

[henchman21]

NHL Power Rankings: Which teams are on the rise at the mid-summer mark?

Though we have yet to see a Matthew Tkachuk-level trade this off-season, some big names have switched sweaters in the past month or so. Ryan Dixon takes a look at where each team stands at the mid-summer point.

www.sportsnet.ca

Don’t feel like digging for a whole bunch of different opinions but here’s one in the meantime.



Compher is disgustingly overrated by some of you. 51 points for the first time in his career and it’s like that was his norm or something. Now go compare their playoff totals.

That's a power ranking not most improved. The Athletic, The Hockey News, stats geeks, AP, NHL, etc are not favorable to the Avs improvement in the offseason. It is pretty consistent though that New Jersey, Dallas, and Pittsburgh have had great offseasons on all of those.

Here's the stat geek that everyone likes to post:



His model has Avs at 98 points. IIRC Avs were 110+ last year on his model.

More or less most people have the Avs high in the rankings based on past results of the team and star power the Avs have. Not the moves they made making the team dramatically better.

One piece of revisionist history is going on here (in general, not specifically you) though. People are acting like last summer it was widespread that the Avs would have a trying season and the offseason was bad. It was actually the minority of people here screaming that. Most were expecting to contend for the Cup and that the West would be a breeze. The Avs were by far the best team and just needed to make a simple move or two. That was common here and posters who went against that were mocked for a while...

 

[Balthazar]

It’s funny how many of you are all of a sudden anti avs being good this year but many media heads think they are bolstered up

A lot of things have to go right for the Avs to win their offseason gambles. The issue is people are just assuming that Wood, RyJo and Drouin will all succeed even if the odds are against them.

Also people tend to assume that since we got a lot of injuries in recent years we won't get any this upcoming season. That's not how it works.

It's not "anti-Avs" to temper expectations.