Rumor: 2023-2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Off-season is in full swing

[chet1926]

Where did you see the cap space and/or the tradeable prospect pool to solve both of those problems?

If you stop for a moment and be both honest and reasonable about it, you'd see that they didn't exist. CMac couldn't solve both of those problems, so he solved the more important one.

I've already given up on a top 6 winger, we have to hope and pray Drouin has a career year. That was CMac's answer to the top 6 winger need.

But we do have the ability to upgrade the bottom 6 and that's all I'm asking for. As long as Meyers and Olaffson aren't starting opening night in the bottom 6 I'll be happy.

 

[the_fan]

I've already given up on a top 6 winger, we have to hope and pray Drouin has a career year. That was CMac's answer to the top 6 winger need.

But we do have the ability to upgrade the bottom 6 and that's all I'm asking for. As long as Meyers and Olaffson aren't starting opening night in the bottom 6 I'll be happy.

Do what I did.

I’m tired of the Avs, CMac, Avs fans, so I’ve joined the Arizona fan base

 

[JH21]

Drouin has averaged 21 points the past 4 years yet people are slotting him as the LW1 next to Mackinnon?

Drouin might not even make the team nevermind play alongside Mackinnon.

I think Colton will be LW next to Mackinnon to play the Landy roll.

Colton- Mackinnon- Nichushkin
Lehkonen- Johansen - Rantanen
Wood- Drouin- O'Connor
Olofsson- Meyers- Cogliano

 

[PAZ]

Drouin has averaged 21 points the past 4 years yet people are slotting him as the LW1 next to Mackinnon?

Drouin might not even make the team nevermind play alongside Mackinnon.

I think Colton will be LW next to Mackinnon to play the Landy roll.

Colton- Mackinnon- Nichushkin
Lehkonen- Johansen - Rantanen
Wood- Drouin- O'Connor
Olofsson- Meyers- Cogliano

What type of logic is that?

By your logic Landy has averaged 39 points the past 4 years, I guess he's a 3rd line scrub now?

 

[the_fan]

What type of logic is that?

By your logic Landy has averaged 39 points the past 4 years, I guess he's a 3rd line scrub now?

What? Landy averaged like 55 to 60 points the last 4 years

 

[Chiarelli]

Drouin has averaged 21 points the past 4 years yet people are slotting him as the LW1 next to Mackinnon?

Drouin might not even make the team nevermind play alongside Mackinnon.

I think Colton will be LW next to Mackinnon to play the Landy roll.

Colton- Mackinnon- Nichushkin
Lehkonen- Johansen - Rantanen
Wood- Drouin- O'Connor
Olofsson- Meyers- Cogliano

Drouin is a terrible bottom 6 fit and a terrible center. He's top 6 or bust for us

 

[Foppa2118]

Lol shifting goal posts???? Landy replacement wasn't on the radar last season since everyone was under the impression he was coming back at some point.

Now this offseason we know he isn't playing this year at all, so it became a problem. 2C fix was irrelevant to this new issue.

CMac addressed 2C, great. But did nothing about the new Landy hole. Essentially we just shifted the problem from 2C to 2W.

Bottom 6 still very much needs work as well.

If you would have asked anyone here after the season, but before the Johansen trade, whether 2C or Landy's LW position was the biggest hole in the lineup that needed addressing, I guarantee you it would have been 2C for nearly everyone.

I can't speak for you obviously, but based on past commentary I would have thought you felt the same. Maybe that's not the case though.

You're never going to 1:1 replace someone like Landeskog in the lineup. You need to do it by committee.

The way the Avs appraoched it is a lot like how most teams would aprpaoch it. They borught in Drouin to hopefully replace some of Landy's production at wing in the top six, and brought in Miles Wood for the 3rd line to help replace the physicality and net front presence on wing that Landy brought.

In addition the hope is guys like RyJo and Colton can help Drouin offset the loss of Landy's production.

It's obviously fine for you to look at this differently than I, but personally I just disagree that leaving internal options to fight for 4C and 3RW, with the option to upgrade via trade or waivers during the season, amounts to needing a lot of work. That's not a lot of work.

That's pretty much what every team does to start the season. Almost no team goes into the year with every single spot and role in the lineup filled with proven players and no question marks.

 

[Foppa2118]

Kadri is much better than RyJo, anyone saying otherwise is out to lunch, and purely hoping that RyJo will be back to his form of 5 years ago. As you mentioned his last 4 years have been bad outside his outlier year.

The numbers prove it Chet. Johansen has been more productive throughout his career with twice as many 60+ point pace seasons, and 3 times as many actual 60+ point seasons with 6 to Kadri's 2.

His 26 goal 63 point season a couple years ago wasn't an outlier year either like you guys keep saying. He put up 63 points one other time and also had a 64 and 71 point season. He also had the same 26 goals one other time and a 33 goal season another.

This is not the same as Kadri's clear cut outlier year and career season, where he put up 87 points and paced for 100, which are both much higher than he ever had before.

I'll post it again in case you didn't see.

Kadri

2010-11: 34 pt pace
2011-12: 27 pt pace
2012-13: 75 pt pace (44 points)
2013-14: 53 pt pace
2014-15: 44 pt pace
2015-16: 49 pt pace
2016-17: 61 pt pace (61 points)
2017-18: 56 pt pace (55 points)
2018-19: 49 pt pace
2019-20: 58 pt pace (Avs)
2020-21: 47 pt pace (Avs)
2021-22: 100 pt pace (Avs) (87 points)
2022-23: 56 pt pace (56 points)

Johansen

2011-12: 26 pt pace
2012-13: 25 pt pace
2013-14: 63 pt pace (63 points)
2014-15: 71 pt pace (71 points)
2015-16: 62 pt pace (60 points)
2016-17: 61 pt pace (61 points)
2017-18: 56 pt pace
2018-19: 66 pt pace (64 points)
2019-20: 43 pt pace
2020-21: 38 pt pace
2021-22: 65 pt pace (63 points)
2022-23: 42 pt pace

 

[expatriatedtexan]

The numbers prove it Chet. Johansen has been more productive throughout his career with twice as many 60+ point pace seasons, and 3 times as many actual 60+ point seasons with 6 to Kadri's 2.

His 63 point season a couple years ago wasn't an outlier year either like you guys keep saying. He's put up more points two other times in his career, and had the same 26 goals one other time, and a 33 goal season another.

This is not the same as Kadri's clear cut outlier year and career season, where he put up 87 points and paced for 100, which are both much higher than he ever had before.

I'll post it again in case you didn't see.

Kadri

2010-11: 34 pt pace
2011-12: 27 pt pace
2012-13: 75 pt pace (44 points)
2013-14: 53 pt pace
2014-15: 44 pt pace
2015-16: 49 pt pace
2016-17: 61 pt pace (61 points)
2017-18: 56 pt pace (55 points)
2018-19: 49 pt pace
2019-20: 58 pt pace (Avs)
2020-21: 47 pt pace (Avs)
2021-22: 100 pt pace (Avs) (87 points)
2022-23: 56 pt pace (56 points)

Johansen

2011-12: 26 pt pace
2012-13: 25 pt pace
2013-14: 63 pt pace (63 points)
2014-15: 71 pt pace (71 points)
2015-16: 62 pt pace (60 points)
2016-17: 61 pt pace (61 points)
2017-18: 56 pt pace
2018-19: 66 pt pace (64 points)
2019-20: 43 pt pace
2020-21: 38 pt pace
2021-22: 65 pt pace (63 points)
2022-23: 42 pt pace

Yeah, well that may be fine and good...but what where their respective Æ/60?

 

[Foppa2118]

Why do we care what Ryjo did 4-5 years ago? That’s not who we’re getting.

And is it something to be proud of that our number 2C averaged around 40-45 points a year over the last 4 years? That’s the feather in our cap?

Awesome. He’s not as terrible as JTC. Great bar the Avs have set for themselves considering they’re supposed to be competing for a cup.

View attachment 730232

Impressive stuff over the last 3 seasons from Ryjo from an analytics stand point too.

When you say "why do we care what Ryjo did 4-5 years ago" and again talk about averaging 40-50 points the last four years, when I started that post by saying he just put up 63 points a couple years ago, it makes me think you might be trolling.

But in case you're being genuine with this argument, and are truly worried about his point totals the last four years, and don't see how the Avs might be able to get more out of him than Nashville did, let me remind you of the point totals from the prior four seasons of a few other players that had a rep for underachieving and came to the Avs with something to prove like RyJo.

Lehky was slightly different, but the Avs are just really good at timing when they bring players in so their value is low, and they have the biggest chip on their shoulder to prove their doubters wrong. This applies to an extent with Drouin's situation as well.

I believe they time it this way intentionally too. It's a good strategy. They're also just really good in general at getting the most offense out of players.

Prior 4 NHL Seasons Before Joining Avalanche

Kadri

2015-16: 49 pt pace (45 points)
2016-17: 61 pt pace (61 points)
2017-18: 56 pt pace (55 points)
2018-19: 49 pt pace (44 points)

Burakovsky

2015-16: 39 pt pace (38 points)
2016-17: 45 pt pace (35 points)
2017-18: 37 pt pace (25 points)
2018-19: 27 pt pace (25 points)

Lehkonen

2018-19: 31 pt pace (31 points)
2019-20: 32 pt pace (27 points)
2020-21: 23 pt pace (13 points)
2021-22: 41 pt pace (29 points)

Nichuskin

2013-14: 35 pt pace (34 points)
2014-15: 10 pt pace (1 point)
2015-16: 30 pt pace (29 points)
2018-19: 14 pt pace (10 points)

 

[Miri]

I dont think you are going to resolve this until the puck drops. Until then Schroedinger RyJo it is - both potentially flourishing in new system and as a result of change of scenery, and washed out one on his path to irrelevance. Which one will it ultimately be is anyones guess. Hopefully the first one, but the second one is as much, if not more, likely.

Same deal with Drouin and maybe even Wood (given his alleged change to worse post-injury).

 

[Richard Doll]

Drouin has averaged 21 points the past 4 years yet people are slotting him as the LW1 next to Mackinnon?

Drouin might not even make the team nevermind play alongside Mackinnon.

I think Colton will be LW next to Mackinnon to play the Landy roll.

Colton- Mackinnon- Nichushkin
Lehkonen- Johansen - Rantanen
Wood- Drouin- O'Connor
Olofsson- Meyers- Cogliano

Drouin as a playmaker might help feed Wood for some goals, but he would be a terrible fit in the role of third line center.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

Drouin sucks. If he is playing with the big boys once the playoffs roll around this team is going nowhere.

 

[ABasin]

I've already given up on a top 6 winger, we have to hope and pray Drouin has a career year. That was CMac's answer to the top 6 winger need.

But we do have the ability to upgrade the bottom 6 and that's all I'm asking for. As long as Meyers and Olaffson aren't starting opening night in the bottom 6 I'll be happy.

You should give up on a top 6 winger. There is no cap space to sign one, and there are no prospects to trade for one. Unless they can entice Patrick Kane to come to Colorado for a half season for $2M or something, this ship has sailed with Drouin.

Maybe I misunderstood your post to some extent. I was responding to your post that said this:

"CMac addressed 2C, great. But did nothing about the new Landy hole. Essentially we just shifted the problem from 2C to 2W."

As for the bottom 6, the Avs have legitimate 3rd line players in Wood/Colton, and legitimate 4th line players in O'Connor/Cogliano. And 4th line players are a dime a dozen, generally. Just need them to be able to skate, hit, and (even better) PK.

It's not unusual at all for NHL teams to address their 4th lines with FA plugs and middle tier prospects in their system. Which is exactly what the Avs look like they're doing, with Oloffson and Meyers. And perhaps Pavel and some TBD kid in their system. Every team does it, every year.

Finally, the Avs do have a bit of cap space to sign another player. Maybe they're just waiting it out, to see if another Rodriques crosses their path later in the Summer. They can always sign a Blidh-type of guy with the money, if no one comes along. Those guys are always available.

Not sure why you are so bent backwards about the 4th line.

 

[NateTheGreat]

If you guys had to guess, which of our top three lines will be tasked with the most difficult defensive assignments?

It may end up being the 3rd line which would in turn lead to our new acquisitions Wood and Colton not having the offensive output many of us are expecting. I’d be totally okay with this if it means RyJo and Rants can feast on offense.

 

[henchman21]

Shayna Goldman of the athletic keeps saying Colton will take over the 2C in Colorado. She really believes Ross has that in him

I can 100% see Colton being the 2C at the end of the season... if that happens though, the Avs are in real trouble.

 

[Freaky Styley]

What? Landy averaged like 55 to 60 points the last 4 years

I think the point is that you're not factoring in games played.

 

[henchman21]

IMO expectations of a similar team to 21-22's team is just not with reality. Avs had MacK's sweetheart deal, Kadri's sweetheart deal, and Nuke and Burkie at low rates. Once you start having to play players what they are worth, the cap space dies to build up depth. This is one of the reasons it becomes pretty hard to win as teams age. You're not only facing regression of skills, but the excess value swaps. You go from players providing more than you are paying them, to the opposite.

The checks have come due and will continue to come due over the next couple seasons. The Avs haven't drafted well enough to have young players step in, and they used up a ton of assets over the last few years to patch the holes to where getting those excess value deals just can't be afforded (at least in the Avs' mind).

This is why the Avs went reclamation and projection. They grabbed guys like Drouin and RyJo betting they can regain form. Then grabbing Colton and Wood betting expanded roles will help them. This clearly carries risk.

 

[The Abusement Park]

The numbers prove it Chet. Johansen has been more productive throughout his career with twice as many 60+ point pace seasons, and 3 times as many actual 60+ point seasons with 6 to Kadri's 2.

His 26 goal 63 point season a couple years ago wasn't an outlier year either like you guys keep saying. He put up 63 points one other time and also had a 64 and 71 point season. He also had the same 26 goals one other time and a 33 goal season another.

This is not the same as Kadri's clear cut outlier year and career season, where he put up 87 points and paced for 100, which are both much higher than he ever had before.

I'll post it again in case you didn't see.

Kadri

2010-11: 34 pt pace
2011-12: 27 pt pace
2012-13: 75 pt pace (44 points)
2013-14: 53 pt pace
2014-15: 44 pt pace
2015-16: 49 pt pace
2016-17: 61 pt pace (61 points)
2017-18: 56 pt pace (55 points)
2018-19: 49 pt pace
2019-20: 58 pt pace (Avs)
2020-21: 47 pt pace (Avs)
2021-22: 100 pt pace (Avs) (87 points)
2022-23: 56 pt pace (56 points)

Johansen

2011-12: 26 pt pace
2012-13: 25 pt pace
2013-14: 63 pt pace (63 points)
2014-15: 71 pt pace (71 points)
2015-16: 62 pt pace (60 points)
2016-17: 61 pt pace (61 points)
2017-18: 56 pt pace
2018-19: 66 pt pace (64 points)
2019-20: 43 pt pace
2020-21: 38 pt pace
2021-22: 65 pt pace (63 points)
2022-23: 42 pt pace

I mean RyJo shot double his career shooting % in 21-22… That’s not necessarily sustainable. It’s looking like an outlier based on career trajectory though. Even if you take out Kadris outlier season and keep RyJo’s he’s averaged a higher points pace than RyJo(52.5 to 50.8) the last 5 seasons. The RyJo move has a ton of risk involved with it, even if I think there’s more upside with him. But that upside is far from a guarantee.

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

Random thought experiment I've had in my head. What if Claude Lemieux doesn't cheapshot Draper? It's not like that play affected the game in a meaningful way for the Avs. That play, and the Red Wings' quest for revenge afterwards got Detroit a ton of momentum. I'm not sure that without that brawl in 1997 that they have as much success against the Avs. I also am not sure they go after Shanahan without that incident.

 

[henchman21]

I mean RyJo shot double his career shooting % in 21-22… That’s not necessarily sustainable. It’s looking like an outlier based on career trajectory though. Even if you take out Kadris outlier season and keep RyJo’s he’s averaged a higher points pace than RyJo(52.5 to 50.8). The RyJo move has a ton of risk involved with it, even if I think there’s more upside with him. But that upside is far from a guarantee.

I personally don't expect RyJo to produce much more (if any) than 50-55 points. Those are going to be an extremely frustrating set of 50-55 points too. But that isn't where his value or importance is really going to be... that'll be in the playoffs. If he can put up 18-22 points in a long run, nobody will care about the points in the regular season.

The question with RyJo is when he is giving his best effort, is the ability still there? If that answer is yes, then the Avs addressed an issue because RyJo will care in the playoffs. If it is no, he's bought out next summer.

 

[JH21]

Drouin is a terrible bottom 6 fit and a terrible center. He's top 6 or bust for us

Player A plays 20-22 minutes a night on the top line.

Player B plays 14-16 minutes a night as a 3C.

Which player gives us the best chance to win?

 

[AvalancheSpeedsters]

It must be exhausting being you.

Didn’t know AI could « feel » things

 

[The Abusement Park]

I personally don't expect RyJo to produce much more (if any) than 50-55 points. Those are going to be an extremely frustrating set of 50-55 points too. But that isn't where his value or importance is really going to be... that'll be in the playoffs. If he can put up 18-22 points in a long run, nobody will care about the points in the regular season.

The question with RyJo is when he is giving his best effort, is the ability still there? If that answer is yes, then the Avs addressed an issue because RyJo will care in the playoffs. If it is no, he's bought out next summer.

Thats what I mean with more upside. The Avs will make the playoffs regardless of how RyJo plays in the RS. But if he can make a difference in the playoffs somewhat close to what he has in the past that’ll be the difference maker for the Avs.

 

[AvalancheSpeedsters]

Thats what I mean with more upside. The Avs will make the playoffs regardless of how RyJo plays in the RS. But if he can make a difference in the playoffs somewhat close to what he has in the past that’ll be the difference maker for the Avs.

Agreed. The fact he’s a big body (like Colton) and can win faceoffs in of itself is a win over what we had last year . I too dont expect more than 50-55 pts but if that means more balanced offense (Rantanen on his wing for example) also the better for it