Rumor: 2023-2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Off-season is in full swing

[Ararana]

We need to start accepting the fact that Mikko will be a pending UFA after next season. He's going to want north of 10, has shown a willingness to hold out for the money, and the Avs are going to have a hell of a time affording that at the winger position. Especially once they f*** themselves with Toews' extension.

The cap is going up but it isn't going up THAT much, and Makar is just two years behind Mikko. Just like MacKinnon, every decision should be made around keeping Makar.

 

[the_fan]

11.5 for Mikko sounds fair

 

[GeoRox89]

and why not exchange Rantanen? You will tell me that he is too important or too good for that. If it is so good the return will be very interesting? A rangers fan offered me Chytil-Lafreniere or Kakko- K'Andre Miller and 1st against Rantanen and Toews. What do you think?what your proposition?

This sounds like we’re taking him back to the store to get a new one cause he’s defective

Mikko isn’t being exchanged or traded or replaced or sent to colonize the moon. This team is full of complementary hardworking two way forwards. We cannot afford to lose one of the only skill players on the roster especially at forward. Mikko is a game breaker and not replaceable

 

[Balthazar]

If people really believe that our window will shut in 2 years then it's pretty pointless to re-up Rants to something like 12.5M X 8.

Last thing we want as fans should be 7-8 years of aging Mack, Rants and Makar making 12M-15M each and the team going nowhere.

Once the window shuts the quicker we start a rebuild the less suffering.

 

[the_fan]

If people really believe that our window will shut in 2 years then it's pretty pointless to re-up Rants to something like 12.5M X 8.

Last thing we want as fans should be 7-8 years of aging Mack, Rants and Makar making 12M-15M each and the team going nowhere.

Once the window shuts the quicker we start a rebuild the less suffering.

Why would the Avs window close in 2 years? The core is still young and will be in 2 years. I don’t get that

 

[Bender]

We need to start accepting the fact that Mikko will be a pending UFA after next season. He's going to want north of 10, has shown a willingness to hold out for the money, and the Avs are going to have a hell of a time affording that at the winger position. Especially once they f*** themselves with Toews' extension.

The cap is going up but it isn't going up THAT much, and Makar is just two years behind Mikko. Just like MacKinnon, every decision should be made around keeping Makar.

Personally, I don't believe this is the correct course of action. If the Avs are making decisions based on making sure Cale Makar remains an Avalanche FOUR FRIKKIN' YEARS FROM NOW - they are doing it wrong, plain and simple.

Now I'm not suggesting completely f***ing yourself over in regards to the cap by doing something stupid like signing Patrick Kane to a 5 year - $50M contract or something ridiculous like that but this hasn't been the Avs way of doing things anyways.

At the same time, the golden knights have been 'pushing all their chips to the middle' for what seems like 4-5 years now and they've always somehow seemingly have been able by hook or by crook (mostly crook) to find someone to help them get out of bad contract situations.

I'd like to see the Avs be a little more aggressive then they've been at adding pieces... they are always so careful about how each moves impacts their future... a little too careful for my taste.

Too much can happen over the course of 4 years... Cap could go up by more than people are anticipating, serious injuries could occur to certain players, a key player wanting to be traded or just wants to go play for his hometown team in Calgary -> just like Sakic did when he signed with Vancouver for the minimum.

 

[Alienblood]

Why would the Avs window close in 2 years? The core is still young and will be in 2 years. I don’t get that

if we extend Toews the window will shrink for sure

 

[ABasin]

Why would the Avs window close in 2 years? The core is still young and will be in 2 years. I don’t get that

After two more seasons, the Avs have several significant contracts that are up: Rantanen, Byram, Giorgiev will all be up for raises, in all likelihood (Johansen's and and O'Connor's contracts will expire also). That in addition to Toews' contract expiring after one season.

The team would need the cap to go up a good $12M to sign those four guys, and keep the rest of the lineup in place. They likely won't be able to resign them all.

In addition, after two more seasons, MacKinnon, Nichushkin, Lehkonen, Wood, Toews, and Giorgiev will all be 29 or 30 years old. Not ancient, no. But not young either.

 

[the_fan]

if we extend Toews the window will shrink for sure

After two more seasons, the Avs have several significant contracts that are up: Rantanen, Byram, Giorgiev will all be up for raises, in all likelihood (Johansen's and and O'Connor's contracts will expire also). That in addition to Toews' contract expiring after one season.

The team would need the cap to go up a good $12M to sign those four guys, and keep the rest of the lineup in place. They likely won't be able to resign them all.

In addition, after two more seasons, MacKinnon, Nichushkin, Lehkonen, Wood, Toews, and Giorgiev will all be 29 or 30 years old. Not ancient, no. But not young either.

The cap should be over 90 mill in two years. They can make it work by resigning Toews and Mikko and still be cup contenders. They just have to find cheaper depth options. ELCs and stuff.

Maybe guys like Ritchie and Gulyayev can become good ELC options. Gulyayev maybe replacing Girard

 

[Alienblood]

The cap should be over 90 mill in two years. They can make it work by resigning Toews and Mikko and still be cup contenders. They just have to find cheaper depth options. ELCs and stuff

yes but if they unleash Byram and give him more opportunity he could be making the same as a respond Toews in 2 years. This should be the last year of Toews

 

[the_fan]

yes but if they unleash Byram and give him more opportunity he could be making the same as a respond Toews in 2 years. This should be the last year of Toews

That’s an option. If Byram takes that next step and becomes the top pair D, then they can trade Toews

 

[Avaholic29]

We are at the “avs will be rebuilding in the basement in two years” part of the offseason hey? That didn’t take too long

 

[Toothless Legend]

Obviously the team knows this is coming and likely has a few contingency plans in place, but cross that bridge with Mikko when we come to it. Too many variables between now and then.

At least he didn't put up 55 in a contract year.

 

[ABasin]

The cap should be over 90 mill in two years.

They need it to be over 95mil.

 

[Balthazar]

They need it to be over 95mil.

Especially if Landy plays one more regular season game.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

After two more seasons, the Avs have several significant contracts that are up: Rantanen, Byram, Giorgiev will all be up for raises, in all likelihood (Johansen's and and O'Connor's contracts will expire also). That in addition to Toews' contract expiring after one season.

The team would need the cap to go up a good $12M to sign those four guys, and keep the rest of the lineup in place. They likely won't be able to resign them all.

In addition, after two more seasons, MacKinnon, Nichushkin, Lehkonen, Wood, Toews, and Giorgiev will all be 29 or 30 years old. Not ancient, no. But not young either.

While I am in full agreement about our window closing quickly... I think its far more about the age of our core then it is being unable to keep the core.

FWIW, Bob MacKenzie said on TSN during free agency day, that the league and all teams are operating under the expectations of an $88M cap for 2024/25, and then Chris Johnston said they're expecting a $92.5M cap by 2025/26.

So for the Avs if those numbers hold true, next summer we're looking at a $4.5M increase, + $637.5k in bonus carryover space. So basically we will have an extra $5.15M next summer. The only player who gets a new deal next year being Toews. Let's say he gets $8M(Any higher and I really do think we should just move on), that would take up $3.9M of the space we have leaving us with $1.25M in extra space. Francouz is also a UFA next summer, replace him with a $1M backup and you get another $1M in space.


The smart move here would be to keep that space to carry over into the next summer when the expiring deals are plentiful. By this I don't mean to play all of next year with $2.25M in cap space, but only spend it on 1 year deal players.


The following summer, 2025. The cap would be expected to rise another $4.5M if Bob/Chris are to be believed. Combined with the $2.25M in space from last year, they would be left with $6.75M to give out upgrades. Rantanen shouldn't get any more then a ~$2M raise. When you conaider Tkachuk being at $9.5M and Pasta being only at $11.25M, IMO you cant go above Pasta for a winger. If Mikko wants more you might have to consider trading him or letting him walk.

Georgiev you either bring back for similar money or just go grab another cheap goalie option. At this point it's obvious IMO that you A) Don't need elite goaltending to win a cup, and B) The Avs play a game that makes goalies look/play better. Sort of similar to Vegas, they can grab an average 1B type goalie for ~$3M again and he'll play like a 1A for us.

Byram will be where things get tricky. If he takes off the way folks here think he's capable of doing, he's going to cost $9-10M. And if that happens there's absolutely no way they can afford him without losing an important piece elsewhere in the lineup. However, if he doesn't take those huge steps forward like some of us don't think he's capable of, you're probably talking ~$7M instead of $9-10M(I'd also argue he should 100% be trade bait instead at this point) which becomes much more affordable. At $7M, that's a $3.15M raise from where he's at right now whclich we would have enough room for along with Mikko getting a $2M raise.

That would leave them with just over $1M in remaining space which might even be enough to bring LOC back on a ~$2M deal.


Landy is of course a huge wildcard in the entire thing. If he ever comes back that's $7M in "cap space" gone instantly. Without question, Landy returning at any point moving forward all but guarantees Girard and probably Lehky or Nichushkin are traded away to fit Landy back in. Which of course with the uncertainty of how good he'll actually be, Landy returning alone could end our window. Whenever that happens.


Anyway, my point/thinking in all of this is that if the cap goes up the way its projected to, I think we can afford to keep the core together. However, in 2 years time when these deals are all up, you've got:

- Mackinnon, turning 30
- Rantanen, turning 29
- Nichushkin, turning 31
- Lehkonen, 30
- Wood, 29
- Toews, 31
- Girard, 27(Probably traded to be fair)
- Makar, turning 27
- Byram, 24
- Manson, turning 34

All of the forwards will basically be 30+. The Defense is younger but still not young by any means, but it won't matter if the forward group has lost a step.


This is where the team desperately needed Newhook or some young forward to break out for them. Unfortunately our drafting has been so shit for so long that it simply isn't happening. Our best case scenario for young NHLers is basically a couple 3rd liners in Foudy and Kovalenko. We're not getting any core level under 25 forward help anytime soon and because or that the expectation will be for our 30+ year guys to continue being as good as they are right now, which simply isn't likely to happen. Hence, our window will close. Not because of the cap(Though it doesnt make it easierby any means), but because of age and terrible drafting.

 

[ANewHope]

3/4 TOI leaders for Vegas were 33, 35, 32. The 4 players who led the team in goals in the playoffs were 32,30,30,28. They had like 7 players 30+ play a big role and Stephenson who’s 28.

I’m more concerned with getting an actual good team/depth than age at this point. If RyJo doesn’t bounce back and we can’t stay healthy it won’t really matter how good the stars are again. We have the building blocks but it doesn’t matter when you miss on the rest of the roster like they did last year.

Colorado will have an opportunity to build a contender as long as the stars stay good. Trends/averages obviously exist but you can’t sit here and say for certain when MacKinnon/Rants won’t be elite players. Could be 30. 31. 32. Who knows.

 

[EdAVSfan]

I think we also have to simply accept the fact that we need to be prepared for turnover.
There’s simply no way to just keep everybody.
The Avs are going to have to decide who makes up the nucleus of the core. I don’t know whether that’s 5 guys, or 8, but that decision will need to be made based on money. If we look back at the 2019-2020 season, there are 6 players from that roster still here.
Now, 3 years from now, there may be more than 6, but it’s the simple reality of the cap world that turnover is inevitable.

 

[LOFIN]

I just disagree with the statement about "window closing". I mean have we watched the same sport? How often do the actual expected cup champs win? How often do we see underdog stories at least make it to conference final or SCF?

Is it going to get tougher in a few years to field an absolute favourite contender? Yes. Does it mean we should be rebuilding? No.

 

[NateTheGreat]

This Avs core has atleast another 4-5 years of contention. We have the best D-man in the world, and that’s not going to change anytime soon. Mack and Mikko are both horses who take great care of themselves physically. Early 30’s is not past your prime in hockey. Plenty of teams have won with an “older core”. For everyone that’s doom and gloom about the team this year and going forward, take a look at the Vegas Cup odds for next year and gain some perspective. These are great years to be an Avs fan, don’t take it for granted.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Nuke

Edit: god damnit the emojis didn’t show. It was a Nose emoji followed by beers.

 

[Freaky Styley]

I'm not opposed to exploring trade scenarios with Mikko. if we haven't found it yet, it would need to include a legit offensive 2C though. He was amazing last season but memories are short and we won the Cup with him playing pretty lackluster.

Although we can't afford to lose him if Landeskog is done or a shell of himself

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I just disagree with the statement about "window closing". I mean have we watched the same sport? How often do the actual expected cup champs win? How often do we see underdog stories at least make it to conference final or SCF?

Is it going to get tougher in a few years to field an absolute favourite contender? Yes. Does it mean we should be rebuilding? No.

I guess it depends on what your definition of the window is?

If you think making the playoffs means the cup window is still open because of the idea that once you're in anything is possible, then yeah the Avs might get another ~4-5 years of a window.

But if your idea of a cup window is being a top tier favorite, one of the ~4 teams expected to win or make the finals at least sort of thing... Then no, that window is closing quickly. You could even make the argument today there's probably 4-5 teams ahead of the Avs as the top contenders in the league.


Our core is getting older, and they're going to start getting more and more expensive while generally experiencing declines in performance in the coming years.


Which will put increasing pressure on the depth to step up and replace what we lose from thr core guys, all while we have less and less money available to spend on the depth. AND the icing on the cake for us in particular is that we are truly one of the worst drafting teams in the league so that cheap depth is significantly harder for us to find.

 

[Balthazar]

Kevin Weekes' Twitter account got hacked

 

[AvalancheSpeedsters]

I think we also have to simply accept the fact that we need to be prepared for turnover.
There’s simply no way to just keep everybody.
The Avs are going to have to decide who makes up the nucleus of the core. I don’t know whether that’s 5 guys, or 8, but that decision will need to be made based on money. If we look back at the 2019-2020 season, there are 6 players from that roster still here.
Now, 3 years from now, there may be more than 6, but it’s the simple reality of the cap world that turnover is inevitable.

I’ve made my peace with it and decided just to be thankful with the time we have with this group (Mack, Makar, Rantanen …). As long as management makes an effort to keep winning as much as possible , that’s that.

Like you said change is inevitable anyway , so worrying about lineups, cap space 2-3 years down the road is just pointless anxiety .