From potential trades to contracts to coaching decisions, the Maple Leafs have a lot to do in Nashville this week.
theathletic.com
As the entire hockey world converges on Nashville for the start of the NHL Draft on Tuesday, we can expect an offseason of changes for the Maple Leafs to begin in earnest.
To start, that means new players added via the draft. As it stands, the Leafs have just three picks (28th, 153rd, 185th). But who makes those selections remains unclear, and that should make for two curious days for the Leafs.
When Brad Treliving was hired by the Leafs as their new GM, Leafs president Brendan Shanahan revealed that Treliving’s former team, the Calgary Flames, imposed “some restrictions” on Treliving’s involvement in the Leafs draft.
The Leafs confirmed to The Athletic Treliving cannot be at the Leafs draft table or participate in draft meetings. It’s still unclear what the other stipulations are, which leaves us with a few questions.
Even if Treliving is not at the Leafs’ draft table, is he able to trade any of the Leafs picks, either this year or beyond? For example, at the 2022 draft, the Leafs traded their 2023 fourth-round pick to re-acquire a fourth-round pick that would become now-touted goalie prospect Dennis Hildeby. Will there be any disconnect between a new GM and his scouting staff during the two days of the draft?
Is it possible there are trades to be made which don’t get completed because Treliving won’t be at the draft table? The Leafs have a valued asset in their first-round pick.
Even if the answers to these questions emerge, doesn’t it feel a little strange to have the new GM of a team not be in complete control of his new team’s situation, or possibly assets, heading into two of the most important days of the year for him?
Nevertheless, Treliving and the rest of the Leafs staff figure to be busy over what could be an eventful summer stopover in Nashville.
Is a big trade incoming?
The list of Leafs’ roster needs isn’t short: a top six winger or a second-line centre, depending on where you see John Tavares lining up. Plenty of bottom six forwards. A top four defenceman.
Treliving could wait until free agency opens on July 1 to address some of these needs, or he could do what he did throughout last year and take a swing with a not-so-small trade. If you need reminding, since the start of 2022, Treliving traded for (among others) the likes of Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar, Tyler Toffoli, Nick Ritchie and a first-round pick while shipping out Matthew Tkachuk, Sean Monahan and multiple first-round picks.
The list of tradable assets in the Leafs’ prospect pool and draft pick collection that would be in demand is thin. So could we see one of the team’s roster players dealt as part of a hockey trade in an effort to add more pieces for 2023?
Treliving has yet to put his stamp on this Leafs team. With every executive in the same town, the draft could be the first real opportunity for Treliving to make a deal that could change the complexion of the team heading into next season.
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Will the Leafs keep their first-round pick?
You’d have to go back to 2017 (!) for the last time the Leafs made their own first-round pick in the draft. Even for a team that has constantly tried to contend during that window, that approach – constantly flipping their pick for a variety of reasons – is sort of wild. It’s no wonder the Leafs’ prospect pool is verging on dire straits, and so far away from having the kind of talent they once did in their system.
This year is no different, as the Leafs’ original pick at 25 was flipped to the Blues as part of the deal for Ryan O’Reilly and Noel Acciari. But they acquired the Bruins’ first-round pick via the Capitals when they flipped Rasmus Sandin out.
There are routes the Leafs could take with the 28th pick, be it trading down to acquire more lottery tickets or trading it away either for a roster player or as part of a package to ditch a contract. (More on that in a bit.)
But the best option to re-stock their prospect cupboard would be to actually make a first-round pick in a very good draft.
There are legitimate options for the Leafs to explore at 28, which we have covered in detail over the past few weeks.
A centre with professional experience who could fit into the Leafs lineup in a short amount of time like Otto Stenberg makes sense. Tremendously-skilled point-producing power forward Quentin Musty might end up being available. There are even players who bear striking similarities to Matthew Knies, like Charlie Stramel.
And with the many talented options available to the Leafs, should they actually make their first-round pick, that player would instantly rocket toward the top of their prospect rankings. Whether they want to juice up their prospect pool remains to be seen, because this organization has rarely been shy about dangling a first-round pick in a deal.
If Treliving can trade picks, we could learn a little bit about his philosophy for this team on day one of the draft.
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What does the future hold for Matt Murray?
Murray’s first season in Toronto didn’t go as planned. The presumed starting goalie coming into training camp sustained three serious injuries and played only 26 regular season games.
After an injury to Ilya Samsonov, Murray saw Joseph Woll get the nod over him in the second round of the playoffs. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for his future in Toronto, especially if Keefe remains behind the bench.
So right now, there are three likely outcomes for Murray with the Leafs. The 29-year-old and his $4.68-million cap hit could simply spend next season on the club’s roster.
Though Murray has a 10-team no-trade clause, he could still be shipped out, possibly with that aforementioned first-round pick attached to him in a trade. (Though, in my opinion, that would be detrimental to the Leafs long term.)
Or, finally, he could be bought out.
Crucially, the buyout period ends approximately 24 hours after the conclusion of the draft. This means the window for Treliving to explore this possibility is quickly closing. And you wonder if they don’t find a deal at the draft if that forces their hand with a buyout…if, of course, they even want to move on from Murray.