Post-Game Talk: 2023-2024 Leafs Roster/Changes/Turnovers & Replacement(s)

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justashadowof

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Based on comparisons to Marner and Tavares alone, Nylander gets over $11M aav on his next contract. Nylander has scored at the same rate as Tavares in the past two seasons and scored more at even strength. Nylander scores more frequently than Marner and is the second best playmaker on the team. Goals trumps assists which brings Nylander's market value up very close to Marner's.

Nylander isn't taking a discount to stay if his other star teammates aren't taking discounts themselves. He's going to chase the money whether it's here or elsewhere. There's an argument to extend Nylander @ $11M aav (or less if there is term) then dealing Marner whose free agent ask is completely unknown.
 
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thusk

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I disagree. He is biding his time until the NMC kicks in then he is USA bound to the highest bidder....


Will always beats skill in the playoffs

First i dont think matthews can officialy sign a contract before july 1... it i remember rhey nerd ro wair his last kick off before sign any extension... so the only leafs can have is a verbal agreement
 

mydnyte

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Scoring in up, 48 players with more than 40 goals.

Sorry, I misread that. 13 players with more than 40 goals.

That sounds better.

6 players with more Even Strength goals.

Now it becoming clear.

I just think he should ask for a trade. Probably not a great return on a 1 year rental, but he's only a 2nd. liner.

Nylander
for
1st. rounder in the 10 - 20 ranger
2nd.
prospect.
for Nylander, i'd ask for the 2nd or 3rd overall pick in this current draft. ...maybe even as low as 4th
OR, I'd want a young potential #1D in return

we are talking about now a 40 goal, above PPG player in his prime, not a deadline deal, over 30 pending UFA.

the #2 and #3 picks 'project' to be #1C's who like Nylander may or not end up playing C
Nylander IS a top line RWer who was drafted as a Center
 

geo25

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For all of Dubas faults he has left this team in a good position to take another step if the next GM isn't hasty and insistent on blowing things up (which based on Chris Johnston's reporting it doesn't sound like Shanahan wants either). Leafs have the cap space to make major improvements, but the current status of the Leafs isn't terrible. Leafs goaltending situation for one is the most promising it's been in a while with Sammy and Brick Woll guarding the pipes. Need to send Murray to Robidas Island to rectify that mistake and make room for our new dynamic duo in net.

On the defence the Leafs are still in a good spot but are getting older and need an infusion of young talent that is available. Rielly will hopefully have a healthier season and will bounce back, McCabe is already good and should improve with a full training camp and season to get used to the new coaches system. Big concerns are Brodie and Giordano, both of whom got exposed bad this postseason. At least Gio has the excuse of being close to 40, Brodie we've gotta hope was injured because he's too important still to take a step back next season. We also had a left-shooting defenseman ready to replace Gio but the organization decided to trade him for... reasons. Leafs will hopefully re-sign Schenn to continue to be a steady physical presence. Liljegren under a new coach should be given the chance to flourish and usurp Brodie as our best right-side defenseman. Timmins will need to be given opportunity to play and improve too as he's now the new Sandin in that he's a skilled offensive defenseman who needs work on his defensive game, though he has better physical tools than Rasmus does.

Outside of the organization there's not a ton on the free agent market. Orlov is the best name out there for sure but by nature of the market he'll be expensive. Gavrikov is also out there if you want someone bigger and meaner but it sounds like he and LA will settle on a contract soon. Leafs do have the Bruins 1st rounder and if they are able to send Murray to LTIRetirement, could use that to acquire a defenseman.

Up front, still have Matthews, Marner, and Nylander who can produce at an elite level. Would include Tavares but at his age I'm weary of a potential drop off despite how consistent he's been. Infusing Knies into this lineup will be huge given his skillset and offensive prowess. I still also have hope for Nicky Bobby turning things around (a new coach capable of cultivating young talent at the NHL level would go a long way). The bottom six right now only has Jarnkrok and Lafferty as locks to return. Of all our pending forward free agents Acciari is the one who I want back most. O'Reilly despite having similar strengths and weakness as John would be good to bring back as the 3C but he might price himself out. Kampf if he's willing to take another low cost contract I'd bring back, and if not Holmberg is ready to step in anyway and honestly we might be better off letting Kampf walk, it's not like he was all that great after Engvall left. ZAR was fine but I'd want someone with more physicality willingness to go to battle, like Simmonds but someone who can actually be an everyday NHLer.

Intriguing players outside of the team are thin much like defensemen. Bertuzzi and Killorn jump out, but Killorn's age and Bertuzzi's non-existent defensive game are both reasons to be cautious, but they each play a physical mean game we desperately need, especially in the top 6. Again, Leafs could/should dangle the 1st rounder from the Sandin trade for an upgrade up front. Whoever the Leafs target they have to have some bite to them, like the GM we're currently searching for apparently. Don't want/need another soft tweener, no offense to Kerfoot who capped off our stunning Game 4 comeback in Round 1.

The lineup I'd like with players I'd want to return to the Leafs looks like this:

Knies-Matthews-Nylander
Jarnkrok
-Tavares-Marner
Robertson
-O'Reilly-Acciari
Lafferty-Kampf-Holmberg

Rielly
-Schenn
McCabe-Liljegren
Giordano
-Brodie
Timmins


Samsonov
Woll
My what I feel pessimistic outlook on contracts for our UFAs and RFA Samsonov would leave the Leafs with roughly $5 million in cap space, enough for an impact forward or defenseman depending on who you want to target (the available money is even larger if O'Reilly walks). I'd personally use that money to go after a forward and increase the teams toughness up front, either via trade or free agency. I think with McCabe and Schenn on the back-end there's enough grit there that you don't need to go looking for it, if anything the target should be a high-end defenseman if you're going to look to improve the defence at all. If the Leafs can get a scoring forward with grit we'd be looking at:

Knies-Matthews-Nylander
Bertuzzi/Killorn-Tavares-Marner
Robertson
-O'Reilly-Acciari
Lafferty-Kampf-Jarnkrok

Rielly
-Schenn
McCabe-Liljegren
Giordano
-Brodie
Timmins


Samsonov
Woll

This lineup would provide the Leafs with ample skill, toughness, and youth that they so desperately need. Put a coach behind the bench who's got an actual clue and we're

That is my thinking. At $9m you have to ask yourself, do I trase Willie or Mitch ? At 8+ the Leafs might choose to trade Marner. For what it is worth Burke says he would trade Nylander.
Trade both...
 
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ToneDog

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Based on comparisons to Marner and Tavares alone, Nylander gets over $11M aav on his next contract. Nylander has scored at the same rate as Tavares in the past two seasons and scored more at even strength. Nylander scores more frequently than Marner and is the second best playmaker on the team. Goals trumps assists which brings Nylander's market value up very close to Marner's.

Nylander isn't taking a discount to stay if his other star teammates aren't taking discounts themselves. He's going to chase the money whether it's here or elsewhere. There's an argument to extend Nylander @ $11M aav (or less if there is term) then dealing Marner whose free agent ask is completely unknown.
I'd laugh at the Nylander camp if they asked for $11m AAV when Pasta just took $11.25mx8 and Nylander isn't close to Pasta who will finish 2nd for the Hart let alone Takachuk who will finish third took 9.5mx8. Both have scored 100+ point. Willie's best is 86 points. I'd immediately start shopping him if he tried to pull the same stunt Marner did using overpays by Dubas as comparables.
 

ULF_55

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But im agree nylander would probably not brong a great return, maybe something around Devon Toews who also in a year conteact could make sense for both team...

Leafs upgrading d and get an other D who can bring offensive outside of rielly and avs get someone to replace landeskog offensivly
No interest in shuffling deck chairs.

Leafs need young players not fleeing players.

Waste of a trade.
 

thusk

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No interest in shuffling deck chairs.

Leafs need young players not fleeing players.

Waste of a trade.

Leafs are in win now mod, not in category trying to get the best team in 4-5 season

So they will make trade for short/medium term, not long term for pick and prospect
 

ULF_55

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Leafs are in win now mod, not in category trying to get the best team in 4-5 season

So they will make trade for short/medium term, not long term for pick and prospect

No they aren't.

They're in a provide entertainment and re-sign a couple of their pending UFA mode.

They've accepted there is no win-now mode in the NHL.
 
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ULF_55

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Nylander is 26th for number of 5v5 goal, big part of his even strenght goal came at 3v3 or 4v4... how much do you really want to spend on 3v3 or 4v4 stats


Last 2 season nylander had
40 5v5 goal
22 pp
12 3v3, 4v4 or 6v5 goal


In playoff only
1 5v5 goal
3 pp goal
3 4v4 or 6vs5 goal

Compare to marner
37 5v5 goal ( only 3 less than nylander with 11 game less player)
15 pp goal

Playoff
1 pp goal
4 5v5 goal

Matthews
64 5v5 goal
29 pp goal

Playoff
6 5v5 goal
2 pp goal

But im agree nylander would probably not brong a great return, maybe something around Devon Toews who also in a year conteact could make sense for both team...

Leafs upgrading d and get an other D who can bring offensive outside of rielly and avs get someone to replace landeskog offensivly

This is a fact:

1685462988737.png


This is a fact:
1685463019429.png
 

leafan11

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Feb 13, 2010
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Kypreos dropped a little nugget that Gio may not be back next year. Kinda sucks because we will have 800k in dead cap space if he retires.
 

Larcos_Unal

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Based on comparisons to Marner and Tavares alone, Nylander gets over $11M aav on his next contract. Nylander has scored at the same rate as Tavares in the past two seasons and scored more at even strength. Nylander scores more frequently than Marner and is the second best playmaker on the team. Goals trumps assists which brings Nylander's market value up very close to Marner's.

Nylander isn't taking a discount to stay if his other star teammates aren't taking discounts themselves. He's going to chase the money whether it's here or elsewhere. There's an argument to extend Nylander @ $11M aav (or less if there is term) then dealing Marner whose free agent ask is completely unknown.
Zero chance Nylander gets $11M, absolutely less than zero.
Just cause other guys were overpaid doesn't mean we should do it all over again.

If his demand is unreasonable, he's gone...Dubas and his 'no trade' promise is not around any longer.
 

GoonieFace

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Zero chance Nylander gets $11M, absolutely less than zero.
Just cause other guys were overpaid doesn't mean we should do it all over again.

If his demand is unreasonable, he's gone...Dubas and his 'no trade' promise is not around any longer.
Realistically, Matthews and Marner should make less than they do now. Nylander probably a slight raise. Either way, they can’t pay Matthews MacKinnon or McDavid money imo. But since they were already overpaid, it’s going to be impossible to convince them to take something reasonable. I see Matthews at $10.5/year, but we all know that’s not happening, so I would deal him
 

ToneDog

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Realistically, Matthews and Marner should make less than they do now. Nylander probably a slight raise. Either way, they can’t pay Matthews MacKinnon or McDavid money imo. But since they were already overpaid, it’s going to be impossible to convince them to take something reasonable. I see Matthews at $10.5/year, but we all know that’s not happening, so I would deal him
If they deal him, they should have already informed teams he is willing to extend with to send in their bids. The bidding starts at solid roster player + blue chip prospect + (top 10 first and a second) or two firsts.
 
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rumman

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I would think they would find a way to LTIR him so he gets his money and the team is off the hook.
Robadais Island, the gift that keeps on giving………

Zero chance Nylander gets $11M, absolutely less than zero.
Just cause other guys were overpaid doesn't mean we should do it all over again.

If his demand is unreasonable, he's gone...Dubas and his 'no trade' promise is not around any longer.
Yup, “the guy who overpaid your buddies doesn’t work here anymore……..”
 

notDatsyuk

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Jul 20, 2018
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Nylander is 26th for number of 5v5 goal, big part of his even strenght goal came at 3v3 or 4v4... how much do you really want to spend on 3v3 or 4v4 stats


Last 2 season nylander had
40 5v5 goal
22 pp
12 3v3, 4v4 or 6v5 goal


In playoff only
1 5v5 goal
3 pp goal
3 4v4 or 6vs5 goal

Compare to marner
37 5v5 goal ( only 3 less than nylander with 11 game less player)
15 pp goal

Playoff
1 pp goal
4 5v5 goal

Matthews
64 5v5 goal
29 pp goal

Playoff
6 5v5 goal
2 pp goal

But im agree nylander would probably not brong a great return, maybe something around Devon Toews who also in a year conteact could make sense for both team...

Leafs upgrading d and get an other D who can bring offensive outside of rielly and avs get someone to replace landeskog offensivly
Your stats show that Willy is at least as good, but you think that with a $4M better contract, he wouldn't get as good a return?
 
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