Speculation: 2023-2024 General Lightning Discussion - Part 5

[Sky04]

Are you serious? So drafting two franchise stars, and having at worst a top 5 prospect pipeline is a failure.

Sure it is, Buffalo has had a top 5 prospect pool for how long and done what?

Detroit is closer to Buffalo then any other team in the league, most of that during Yzerman's tenure they haven't made the playoffs once in 8 years yet but I guess they have a cool prospect pool to look at. You talk like it's hard to have a top-5 prospect pool when ding ding ding, you draft in the top-10 every year. Prospects drafted in round 1 have a heavier weighting when pools are ranked, Detroit drafted a top-10 pick for 7 years consecutively, you're talking like he pulled some wizardry there.

He hasn't drafted 1 late round impact player to Detroit, that's his "speciality" no? In fact he traded the one impact player drafted beyond the 1st round that Detroit had and someone they drafted before he got there, Hronek.

 

[LightningStrikes]

Drafting is a crapshoot anyway. Just look at the numbers. How many drafted players become NHL regulars, let alone good ones or even stars. Even a 1st round pick is not a sure bet.

It’s a lot more likely that we just got lucky with the Kuchs, Palats and Killorns than it’s proof of the competence of our GM at the time and his staff (scouting, development etc).

The one thing that we had going for us for a while (but the league has caught up to us due to our success) is - as has been stated above - that we went against the grain: pick solely based on talent and not country of origin (the Russia Factor) or player size.

 

[Rschmitz]

Sure it is, Buffalo has had a top 5 prospect pool for how long and done what?

Detroit is closer to Buffalo then any other team in the league, most of that during Yzerman's tenure they haven't made the playoffs once in 8 years yet but I guess they have a cool prospect pool to look at. You talk like it's hard to have a top-5 prospect pool when ding ding ding, you draft in the top-10 every year. Prospects drafted in round 1 have a heavier weighting when pools are ranked, Detroit drafted a top-10 pick for 7 years consecutively, you're talking like he pulled some wizardry there.

He hasn't drafted 1 late round impact player to Detroit, that's his "speciality" no? In fact he traded the one impact player drafted beyond the 1st round that Detroit had and someone they drafted before he got there, Hronek.

So....what is your point exactly? Not making the playoffs and not drafting well are two different things.

The majority of his picks either hit or simply too early too tell. Not a single top 5 pick, this isn't like he's managing the Oilers.

 

[Felonious Python]

A few years back, the Leafs tried to churn through minor leaguers in order to find NHL players. This was when the Solar Bears were affiliated with them. At one point, the Marlies had enough for two teams, and they needed to schedule back-to-back practices to get ice time for everybody. "Found money", the fans said.

It didn't last very long, but the best player they found was Mason Marchment, who they traded to Florida for Denis Malgin.

 

[Bartleby]

? In what time frame? Cup teams don't draft a top sixer within 5 years of a cup? How about top 9? How about just an NHL regular for a full season?

And how far back are we going with this? Because it seems kind of insane that its impossible to draft NHLers if you win a cup. What if you make a final? We drafted Cirelli after making a final. Point directly before.

We have been to four finals, six conference finals and won two cups in 10 years. We were going to have shitty drafts and with that much success, we were going to have really shitty drafts. People such as @T REX and yourself who think that there was some magic way around that aren't dealing in reality.

In a perfect world could better picks have been made, sure, probably, but only the fans get to live in that perfect world of hindsight, but in the real world, the odds were overwhelmingly that things were going to turn out pretty much just as they have and just as they have for other successful teams.

 

[Felonious Python]

While there are high picks who bust, the bulk of the better players tend to be earlier in the draft.

I'm not sure why we're mad that the players that were largely seen as not as promising actually turn out that way. The scouting community was literally right. We're trying to find where they're incredibly wrong.

Every team can adjust their analytics to account for new public information, so that's kind of a wash.


Picking a player who maxes out in the KHL, AHL, or SHL is considered a bust. The guy who makes the 2nd or 3rd best league in the world is a bust. A waste of a pick. That's the level of accuracy we're expecting.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Drafting is a crapshoot anyway. Just look at the numbers. How many drafted players become NHL regulars, let alone good ones or even stars. Even a 1st round pick is not a sure bet.

It’s a lot more likely that we just got lucky with the Kuchs, Palats and Killorns than it’s proof of the competence of our GM at the time and his staff (scouting, development etc).

The one thing that we had going for us for a while (but the league has caught up to us due to our success) is - as has been stated above - that we went against the grain: pick solely based on talent and not country of origin (the Russia Factor) or player size.

I listened to a Kings podcast recently and their Director of Amateur Scouting Mark Yannetti said the chances of you getting a 200 game NHLer in the 1st round is 60%, in the 2nd round it is 36%, and in the 3rd round it is 12%. And that's just getting a 200 game guy, not even necessarily needle mover.

 

[JoVel]

Drafting is a crapshoot anyway. Just look at the numbers. How many drafted players become NHL regulars, let alone good ones or even stars. Even a 1st round pick is not a sure bet.

It’s a lot more likely that we just got lucky with the Kuchs, Palats and Killorns than it’s proof of the competence of our GM at the time and his staff (scouting, development etc).

The one thing that we had going for us for a while (but the league has caught up to us due to our success) is - as has been stated above - that we went against the grain: pick solely based on talent and not country of origin (the Russia Factor) or player size.

Detroit has also had shit draft luck too. I'd like to pretend luck is just an excuse and the best will always prevail, but it's a massive factor whether one wants to admit it or not.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Detroit has also had shit draft luck too. I'd like to pretend luck is just an excuse and the best will always prevail, but it's a massive factor whether one wants to admit it or not.

Wings fans like to complain about "shit draft luck" yet Seider and Raymond would be top 2 or 3 in a redraft for their respective drafts. The Wings' problem has been not being able to hit on 2nd-7th round picks, at least so far since Yzerman got there. While Johansson and Mazur might be mild to solid hits if/when they make the league, they completely whiffed on Tuomisto, Mastrosimone, Grewe, Niederbach, Hanas, Viro. Wallinder and James are no guarantees to make it either. 2nd and 3rd round picks, as we well know, can take you from non playoff team to playoffs, playoffs to actual Cup contender.

It's time our amateur scouting hits on somebody again, and time for BriseBois & Cooper to get on the same page & give a forward prospect a legit chance.

 

[Felonious Python]

Wings fans like to complain about "shit draft luck" yet Seider and Raymond would be top 2 or 3 in a redraft for their respective drafts. The Wings' problem has been not being able to hit on 2nd-7th round picks, at least so far since Yzerman got there. While Johansson and Mazur might be mild to solid hits if/when they make the league, they completely whiffed on Tuomisto, Mastrosimone, Grewe, Niederbach, Hanas, Viro. Wallinder and James are no guarantees to make it either. 2nd and 3rd round picks, as we well know, can take you from non playoff team to playoffs, playoffs to actual Cup contender.

It's time our amateur scouting hits on somebody again, and time for BriseBois & Cooper to get on the same page & give a forward prospect a legit chance.

Point, Palat, etc. would go what, top 5 in a redraft? Top 10 for sure. And we're supposed to be the one team who knows how to do that regularly?

The solution to better meteorology wasn't to hire meteorologists who could somehow read vibes better, it was to improve the modeling and technology.

 

[JoVel]

Wings fans like to complain about "shit draft luck" yet Seider and Raymond would be top 2 or 3 in a redraft for their respective drafts. The Wings' problem has been not being able to hit on 2nd-7th round picks, at least so far since Yzerman got there. While Johansson and Mazur might be mild to solid hits if/when they make the league, they completely whiffed on Tuomisto, Mastrosimone, Grewe, Niederbach, Hanas, Viro. Wallinder and James are no guarantees to make it either. 2nd and 3rd round picks, as we well know, can take you from non playoff team to playoffs, playoffs to actual Cup contender.

It's time our amateur scouting hits on somebody again, and time for BriseBois & Cooper to get on the same page & give a forward prospect a legit chance.

I like Seider a lot but both of those players still have a long way to go to be actual game breaking talents. The kinda that actually make a struggling franchise turn around.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

I like Seider a lot but both of those players still have a long way to go to be actual game breaking talents. The kinda that actually make a struggling franchise turn around.

Raymond looked like an 80-90 point forward down the stretch. He's going to give us issues for a long time. I do wonder if Lalonde is going to wear Seider out by continuing to give him the toughest minutes in order to make that defense core passable.

 

[RLP55]

Don’t follow any others teams. Live in Fort Worth, so just a casual observer of the Stars.

Not getting into the GM/Draft debate. Don’t know, don’t care.

Just wanted to quote Bartleby below. . Been a day one TBL fan. The last 10 years. Wow.

We have been to four finals, six conference finals and won two cups in 10 years.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

One of my bigger criticisms of BriseBois in his amateur scouting/draft strategy is his bias/favoritism towards the Q, despite the fact that it is by far the weakest of the 3 CHL leagues in terms of producing quality NHLers. And the Q is obviously behind the USHL now since that junior option is part of the NCAA route, so that route as a whole has gotten stronger.

If Ethan Gauthier turns out to be better than Andrew Cristall and Riley Heidt, & Jan Golicic turns out to be better than Aron Kiviharju, Riley Patterson, & Luke Misa, then I'll eat crow. Maxim Cajkovic and Cameron MacDonald flopped, Gabe Fortier (drafted when Yzerman was still GM) also has done basically nothing.

 

[GoBoltz56]

Raymond looked like an 80-90 point forward down the stretch. He's going to give us issues for a long time. I do wonder if Lalonde is going to wear Seider out by continuing to give him the toughest minutes in order to make that defense core passable.

Petry played more than Seider last year! Pretty scary

 

[JTBF81]

Well, while there's still time of course to make additional trades and/or signings before the season starts, if this is the team they start the year with, I'd give JBB a solid A- for the offseason. He continued playing a tricky game of working to keep the team successful both now and in the future with the majority of his moves, and the team addressed, at least on paper, it's biggest area of weakness in team defense and a poor ga/g last year.

They do, again on paper, look like a better team than last year, and the only "hole", as was expected by a few on here and elsewhere, is a top 6/9 winger spot. Of course, if Sheary trends back to his normal level of the years before Tampa, that solves some of the issue. Atkinson could also end up being up an answer for middle 6 help, and if not there's no detriment to the cap. They'll have space and some assets if a deadline move is required, and if not, JBB will still have a couple of additional early round picks and a blue chip prospect that they didn't have before the draft.

Some poor contracts were moved with better than expected value returned (and no retention required), futures (both picks/prospects and talented young players l), were added, and JBB was willing to go after a big offensive weapon in ufa with freed up cap. He secured the veteran players he felt gave them the best chance at success as their careers wound down. He also chose not to sink cap into a fan favorite but aging legend, which, based on where he wanted to improve the team moving ahead, was again the best choice for at least the mid to long term success of the team (perhaps the short term as well). If he can pull off another move to upgrade winger depth, I'd move his offseason to a solid A, but for now, still a good set of moves overall.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Didn't see anyone complain about jbb's moves after we win the back to back cups. Without the moves for Coleman and Goodrow do we win those cups? You can't just say it was sy that helped this team win cups. They both made crucial moves.

Also yes we have traded a lot of first round picks with a core already in place. Not ideal move but most time a guy who is established in the league already is going to help that current team win cups more than the first round pick will unless he's like really a top choice.

Other thing that maybe isn't popular is getting rid of popular aging stars with the team in place of faster younger players. Fans and long term players are hurt here but possibly the team is better off.

 

[Crunchrulz]

Didn't see anyone complain about jbb's moves after we win the back to back cups. Without the moves for Coleman and Goodrow do we win those cups? You can't just say it was sy that helped this team win cups. They both made crucial moves.

Also yes we have traded a lot of first round picks with a core already in place. Not ideal move but most time a guy who is established in the league already is going to help that current team win cups more than the first round pick will unless he's like really a top choice.

Other thing that maybe isn't popular is getting rid of popular aging stars with the team in place of faster younger players. Fans and long term players are hurt here but possibly the team is better off.

BOOM!

 

[The Gongshow]

Didn't see anyone complain about jbb's moves after we win the back to back cups. Without the moves for Coleman and Goodrow do we win those cups? You can't just say it was sy that helped this team win cups. They both made crucial moves.

Also yes we have traded a lot of first round picks with a core already in place. Not ideal move but most time a guy who is established in the league already is going to help that current team win cups more than the first round pick will unless he's like really a top choice.

Other thing that maybe isn't popular is getting rid of popular aging stars with the team in place of faster younger players. Fans and long term players are hurt here but possibly the team is better off.

So Savard was JBB's crowning achievement trade

 

[T REX]

Didn't see anyone complain about jbb's moves after we win the back to back cups. Without the moves for Coleman and Goodrow do we win those cups? You can't just say it was sy that helped this team win cups. They both made crucial moves.

Also yes we have traded a lot of first round picks with a core already in place. Not ideal move but most time a guy who is established in the league already is going to help that current team win cups more than the first round pick will unless he's like really a top choice.

Other thing that maybe isn't popular is getting rid of popular aging stars with the team in place of faster younger players. Fans and long term players are hurt here but possibly the team is better off.

This is another all or nothing post.

Why can't we congratulate JBB for making those moves and criticize him at the same time? Is he above reproach? Blind loyalty? To the logo maybe but not an individual.

Ask anyone and they'll take those cups over some picks any day and twice on Sunday.

 

[OffBy1]

Well, while there's still time of course to make additional trades and/or signings before the season starts, if this is the team they start the year with, I'd give JBB a solid A- for the offseason. He continued playing a tricky game of working to keep the team successful both now and in the future with the majority of his moves, and the team addressed, at least on paper, it's biggest area of weakness in team defense and a poor ga/g last year.

They do, again on paper, look like a better team than last year, and the only "hole", as was expected by a few on here and elsewhere, is a top 6/9 winger spot. Of course, if Sheary trends back to his normal level of the years before Tampa, that solves some of the issue. Atkinson could also end up being up an answer for middle 6 help, and if not there's no detriment to the cap. They'll have space and some assets if a deadline move is required, and if not, JBB will still have a couple of additional early round picks and a blue chip prospect that they didn't have before the draft.

Some poor contracts were moved with better than expected value returned (and no retention required), futures (both picks/prospects and talented young players l), were added, and JBB was willing to go after a big offensive weapon in ufa with freed up cap. He secured the veteran players he felt gave them the best chance at success as their careers wound down. He also chose not to sink cap into a fan favorite but aging legend, which, based on where he wanted to improve the team moving ahead, was again the best choice for at least the mid to long term success of the team (perhaps the short term as well). If he can pull off another move to upgrade winger depth, I'd move his offseason to a solid A, but for now, still a good set of moves overall.

I'm not in love with the Guentzel signing. He was basically the top FA and we had to pay him as such and it's gonna suck toward the second half of his contract. I would have taken a cheaper option, like Teravainen, who Chicago only had to give 3 years at 5.4 and would have allowed us to sign another forward to address our remaining forward depth issues.

On the other hand, I won't hate the first half of his contract and I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do, but I don't think JBB spends his available cap efficiently - as we saw with the Serge and Cirelli contracts the last time he freed up cap via trade.

 

[Felonious Python]

One of my bigger criticisms of BriseBois in his amateur scouting/draft strategy is his bias/favoritism towards the Q, despite the fact that it is by far the weakest of the 3 CHL leagues in terms of producing quality NHLers. And the Q is obviously behind the USHL now since that junior option is part of the NCAA route, so that route as a whole has gotten stronger.

If Ethan Gauthier turns out to be better than Andrew Cristall and Riley Heidt, & Jan Golicic turns out to be better than Aron Kiviharju, Riley Patterson, & Luke Misa, then I'll eat crow. Maxim Cajkovic and Cameron MacDonald flopped, Gabe Fortier (drafted when Yzerman was still GM) also has done basically nothing.

A favoritism towards the Q was sort of inevitable. JBB is obviously from Quebec, but he worked for the Habs AHL affiliate, and hired Groulx, Bouchard, and Veillieux out of the Q to coach the Crunch.

I'd say that focusing on the QMJHL is something that goes against the grain. There's still a language barrier for English-only speakers that makes it a harder league to follow than the OHL or WHL. French-only broadcasts and Twitter accounts for teams also aren't unusual.


JJ McCullough makes accessible YouTube videos about Canadian culture, sometimes focused on Quebec.

 

[Todd1a]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1813028481107960223

 

[These Are The Days]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1813028481107960223

It's not that I don't trust you Todd. I'm calling BS because we don't leak. Ever. The teams we trade with do and I don't see much sense in the Ducks doing that

 

[Flat Ronnie]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1813028481107960223

Lol right

(E5)