Speculation: 2023-2024 General Lightning Discussion - Part 5

[Felonious Python]

Something interesting I keep hearing across the league/hockey world is "The NHL has become a young man's league", which seems to be contrary to a trend I've noticed since COVID hit: Coaches aren't trusting of most non elite tier prospects, would rather play veterans. With improvements in training and medicine, veterans are aging better, meaning slower decline & thus less need for prospects to come up. Teams continue to address needs via trades and free agency, as opposed to letting (uncertain) help come up from their prospect pool.

The NHL isn't as young as people think it is. And certainly the Cup winners aren't very young teams. Only a handful of teams have gone full youth movement over the past couple years. So we're not alone with not playing many u23 guys.


BriseBois only has much input in the 1st rounders and maybe 2nd rounders if we don't have a pick. After that it's all amateur scouts.

Hockeydb.com and hockey-reference.com keep track of player ages in a given season.

There are probably fewer careers ended by injuries, but the league is pretty much the same.

I do think that players look younger than they used to. Partly it's the rest of us getting older, but people really did seem to look older back in the day.


I also just found this article on gymnasts getting older. Élite Gymnasts Are Aging Up

 

[Crunchrulz]

I'm ready to start blaming now. If our roster continues to under perform I'm gonna hit the fan. We let a 40 goal scorer walk away for free. Free. If Coop goes out there and basically rolls the same shit we've been seeing for the last 2 years I'm gonna hit the fan. We basically reduxed the Guy Boucher era by over using the same strategies over and over night after night long after the league has us figured out. Do something different dude. Whiteboards have erasers.

They let a 40 goal scorer walk for free who was -21.
Of his 40 goals, 21 were scored on the Power Play. That means he was on the ice at even strength or during the power play when 40 more goals were scored against the Lightning than they scored themselves.
Two years ago, he scored 34 with 14 being on the Power Play while going -5. This mean 25 more goals were scored while he was on the ice even strength or power play.
The numbers do not lie. While his leadership cannot be questioned, his on-ice performance has declined as it does with every player as they get older.

 

[These Are The Days]

They let a 40 goal scorer walk for free who was -21.
Of his 40 goals, 21 were scored on the Power Play. That means he was on the ice at even strength or during the power play when 40 more goals were scored against the Lightning than they scored themselves.
Two years ago, he scored 34 with 14 being on the Power Play while going -5. This mean 25 more goals were scored while he was on the ice even strength or power play.
The numbers do not lie. While his leadership cannot be questioned, his on-ice performance has declined as it does with every player as they get older.

Playing every shift with Cirelli for the last 3 years on even strength will do that to you. Not to mention throwing him on the wing where he even said he was not comfortable. Stamkos had spent basically the last 10 years getting whatever leftovers in the lineup whether it was Callahan, Filppula, Killorn, Paul, Cirelli. Notice how guys like Point and Kucherov literally never had the task of playing with any of those guys consistently. What they all have in common is they were streaky players or not creative or both. Otherwise the best Stamkos got to have was Palat and Johnson coming off of whatever injuries that precipitously declined their play. Put him on a line with Forsberg for 10 games and watch what happens. He's never had anything else like that except Kucherov and St. Louis

It's chicken and the egg. Stamkos needs smart players around him but spent a decade being the babysitter making sure his linemates could ever do ANYTHING useful

 

[Zwui21]

They let a 40 goal scorer walk for free who was -21.
Of his 40 goals, 21 were scored on the Power Play. That means he was on the ice at even strength or during the power play when 40 more goals were scored against the Lightning than they scored themselves.
Two years ago, he scored 34 with 14 being on the Power Play while going -5. This mean 25 more goals were scored while he was on the ice even strength or power play.
The numbers do not lie. While his leadership cannot be questioned, his on-ice performance has declined as it does with every player as they get older.

I personally don't see Stamkos even living up to that Nashville contract in year one.
People are emotionally attached to what Stamkos represented for the franchise, but letting him go is the right move no matter how you slice it.
Tons of respect to JBB for having the balls to letting him go because Stammer didn't accept his offer, 95% of other GMs wouldn't have dared.

 

[Crunchrulz]

Playing every shift with Cirelli for the last 3 years on even strength will do that to you. Not to mention throwing him on the wing where he even said he was not comfortable. Stamkos had spent basically the last 10 years getting whatever leftovers in the lineup whether it was Callahan, Filppula, Killorn, Paul, Cirelli. Notice how guys like Point and Kucherov literally never had the task of playing with any of those guys consistently. What they all have in common is they were streaky players or not creative or both. Otherwise the best Stamkos got to have was Palat and Johnson coming off of whatever injuries that precipitously declined their play. Put him on a line with Forsberg for 10 games and watch what happens. He's never had anything else like that except Kucherov and St. Louis

It's chicken and the egg. Stamkos needs smart players around him but spent a decade being the babysitter making sure his linemates could ever do ANYTHING useful

Every athlete, heck every human, needs to understand when they cannot produce at the level they once could and accept a different role.
As many with far more hockey knowledge than I have noted, Stamkos's play at even strength showed a marked decline last season, regardless of who he played with. The organization realized this and made him an offer while also leaving themselves the ability to sign a player to potentially be productive at all aspects of the game.
Stamkos knew this was quite possibly his final contract and left for terms no one in their right mind would pass up. He led Tampa Bay to not one but two Championships and had nothing left to prove here.
By signing in Nashville, he gets his long overdue big contract while leaving the Lightning with the ability to fill out its own roster to take advantage of the "win now" attitude the organization has.
Maybe, just maybe, in his own way, he is doing what he can to help the organization and community he will always be a part of even if he is no longer wearing the uniform.

 

[These Are The Days]

I personally don't see Stamkos even living up to that Nashville contract in year one.
People are emotionally attached to what Stamkos represented for the franchise, but letting him go is the right move no matter how you slice it.
Tons of respect to JBB for having the balls to letting him go because he didn'twant to take a pay cut, 95% of other GMs wouldn't have dared.

It's not even that. We never tried Stamkos and Point on a line without Kucherov. If we did it wasn't long. We rarely tried Stamkos and Hagel. Hell we haven't seen Stamkos and Kucherov with some other player since J.T Miller left. Not unless you wanna count when we absolutely needed a goal at all costs and we'd throw Stamkos on a line with Point and Kucherov. 91 has been consistently stuck with every black hole on the team for a while now.

My issue is if he goes and blows it up in Nashville we can blame his utilization here. And if he sucks out loud we can all laugh at me being wrong again

 

[Bartleby]

It's not even that. We never tried Stamkos and Point on a line without Kucherov. If we did it wasn't long. We rarely tried Stamkos and Hagel. Hell we haven't seen Stamkos and Kucherov with some other player since J.T Miller left. Not unless you wanna count when we absolutely needed a goal at all costs and we'd throw Stamkos on a line with Point and Kucherov. 91 has been consistently stuck with every black hole on the team for a while now.

My issue is if he goes and blows it up in Nashville we can blame his utilization here. And if he sucks out loud we can all laugh at me being wrong again

Give the coaching staff and other team management a little bit of credit. Just because every conceivable permutation of player utilization hasn't been tried (for a specific period of time) does not mean that the situation has not been satisfactorily assessed, particularly with the length of service of all parties involved in this instance. There are virtually no unknowns.

And if you want to talk about black holes, talk about Stammer's defensive play. FYI, it will not be improving with time.

 

[ccman68]

Just more excuses. Awesome.

i was just answering you dumbass question. how about this: jbb’s first draft was 2019. crozier was drafted in that draft so if he becomes a top 4 D then the answer is that he managed to draft a top 4 D in his very first draft. maybe we should just wait until our players actually develop before deciding that jbb has somehow failed

 

[garmonbozia]

They let a 40 goal scorer walk for free who was -21.
Of his 40 goals, 21 were scored on the Power Play. That means he was on the ice at even strength or during the power play when 40 more goals were scored against the Lightning than they scored themselves.
Two years ago, he scored 34 with 14 being on the Power Play while going -5. This mean 25 more goals were scored while he was on the ice even strength or power play.
The numbers do not lie. While his leadership cannot be questioned, his on-ice performance has declined as it does with every player as they get older.

It's worse than your math here shows. Need to account for all the goals scored when he is on the ice, not just the ones he scored.

 

[Bartleby]

Who has JBB drafted and developed that has become a top 6 player? Dmen?

Anyone?

Ask the same question of every other Cup winner's GM (let alone multiple Cup winners) over the past six years, that is, JBB's tenure, and you will find the same metric occurring on those other teams for the obvious reasons. I may have missed one or two, but I'm pretty sure none of them have a drafted a legitimate top six or top four player who is currently in their lineup. I know this, there are fewer than I can count on one hand amongst all of them, and again, none of them have won multiple Cups or can match TB's consistent excellence or deep runs in that time.

It's just a silly take. When you are where the Lightning have been over the past 10 years you will not have strong drafts. That's the price you pay for being great in the current NHL and it has been well worth it.

 

[Crunchrulz]

It's worse than your math here shows. Need to account for all the goals scored when he is on the ice, not just the ones he scored.

I believe the plus/minus numbers take care of that by giving a plus for goals scored at even strength or shorthanded while a negative for goals against scored at even strength or while on the power play.

 

[Sky04]

I personally don't see Stamkos even living up to that Nashville contract in year one.
People are emotionally attached to what Stamkos represented for the franchise, but letting him go is the right move no matter how you slice it.
Tons of respect to JBB for having the balls to letting him go because he didn'twant to take a pay cut, 95% of other GMs wouldn't have dared.

I mean that's a flat out lie.

 

[T REX]

Ask the same question of every other Cup winner's GM (let alone multiple Cup winners) over the past six years, that is, JBB's tenure, and you will find the same metric occurring on those other teams for the obvious reasons. I may have missed one or two, but I'm pretty sure none of them have a drafted a legitimate top six or top four player who is currently in their lineup. I know this, there are fewer than I can count on one hand amongst all of them, and again, none of them have won multiple Cups or can match TB's consistent excellence or deep runs in that time.

It's just a silly take. When you are where the Lightning have been over the past 10 years you will not have strong drafts. That's the price you pay for being great in the current NHL and it has been well worth it.

Just more excues. That's what we are nowadays. The excuse makers. Pens part Deux

 

[garmonbozia]

I believe the plus/minus numbers take care of that by giving a plus for goals scored at even strength or shorthanded while a negative for goals against scored at even strength or while on the power play.

In utter shame I concede that you are correct. My bad.

 

[Todd1a]

Ask the same question of every other Cup winner's GM (let alone multiple Cup winners) over the past six years, that is, JBB's tenure, and you will find the same metric occurring on those other teams for the obvious reasons. I may have missed one or two, but I'm pretty sure none of them have a drafted a legitimate top six or top four player who is currently in their lineup. I know this, there are fewer than I can count on one hand amongst all of them, and again, none of them have won multiple Cups or can match TB's consistent excellence or deep runs in that time.

It's just a silly take. When you are where the Lightning have been over the past 10 years you will not have strong drafts. That's the price you pay for being great in the current NHL and it has been well worth it.

The penguins were good and a playoff team and they drafted Jake GUENTZEL in 2013 in round 3

 

[DFC]

Playing every shift with Cirelli for the last 3 years on even strength will do that to you. Not to mention throwing him on the wing where he even said he was not comfortable. Stamkos had spent basically the last 10 years getting whatever leftovers in the lineup whether it was Callahan, Filppula, Killorn, Paul, Cirelli. Notice how guys like Point and Kucherov literally never had the task of playing with any of those guys consistently. What they all have in common is they were streaky players or not creative or both. Otherwise the best Stamkos got to have was Palat and Johnson coming off of whatever injuries that precipitously declined their play. Put him on a line with Forsberg for 10 games and watch what happens. He's never had anything else like that except Kucherov and St. Louis

It's chicken and the egg. Stamkos needs smart players around him but spent a decade being the babysitter making sure his linemates could ever do ANYTHING useful

No, Stamkos played plenty with Point and Kucherov. He was no longer the best option for the line and still got time there because Hagel could produce better with Cirelli. Stamkos has had a problem at even strength for a long time. Again, he has only clicked with Kucherov and MSL.

 

[JTBF81]

Playing every shift with Cirelli for the last 3 years on even strength will do that to you. Not to mention throwing him on the wing where he even said he was not comfortable. Stamkos had spent basically the last 10 years getting whatever leftovers in the lineup whether it was Callahan, Filppula, Killorn, Paul, Cirelli. Notice how guys like Point and Kucherov literally never had the task of playing with any of those guys consistently. What they all have in common is they were streaky players or not creative or both. Otherwise the best Stamkos got to have was Palat and Johnson coming off of whatever injuries that precipitously declined their play. Put him on a line with Forsberg for 10 games and watch what happens. He's never had anything else like that except Kucherov and St. Louis

It's chicken and the egg. Stamkos needs smart players around him but spent a decade being the babysitter making sure his linemates could ever do ANYTHING useful

Stamkos has been terrible as a C for awhile, and he's never meshed well with many of his linemates, but don't let his declining 5v5 and defensive play get in the way of the '24-'25 edition of blaming Cirelli for the team's failures, as per usual around here.

 

[Zwui21]

I mean that's a flat out lie.

I edited that part for clarity, I didn't phrase it correctly.
Stammer was okay taking a pay cut to 5M AAV, which was still way too high for the term he was asking and accounting of his obvious decline. JBB decided not to budge and cave in, which was the right move.

 

[Sky04]

I edited that part for clarity, I didn't phrase it correctly.
Stammer was okay taking a pay cut to 5M AAV, which was still way too high for the term he was asking and accounting of his obvious decline. JBB decided not to budge and cave in, which was the right move.

Yeah I agree, just saying it was obvious he wasn't asking for 8 here, when he went to market he took market value as he should.

 

[Zwui21]

Stamkos has been terrible as a C for awhile, and he's never meshed well with many of his linemates, but don't let his declining 5v5 and defensive play get in the way of the '24-'25 edition of blaming Cirelli for the team's failures, as per usual around here.

That's something I've been wondering ever since we let Stamkos go. Maybe is cope, but what if Cirelli's offensive abilities 5v5 have been partially obstructed by Stamkos inability to be a useful player 5v5? It surely has an impact, I guess we'll see this upcoming season if Cirelli is better away from Stammer.
(Even though, if it was the case, we would have probably seen it the times Stammer was slotted with Point and Kuch)

 

[Todd1a]

I heard Stamkos was willing to take 4 million per year for 8 years to stay here and the lightning wouldn’t give it to him

 

[Sky04]

No, Stamkos played plenty with Point and Kucherov. He was no longer the best option for the line and still got time there because Hagel could produce better with Cirelli. Stamkos has had a problem at even strength for a long time. Again, he has only clicked with Kucherov and MSL.

Stamkos would put up better numbers with them, I'd argue they weren't as effective with him as they were with Hagel or Duclair because both brought a different element to the table. At 3.5M - Duclair was a missed singing imo, he clicked on lines 1 and 2 - if you want to argue we already have Guentzel and Hagel ahead of him at LW I'd say 3.5M for a 3rd line LW as dangerous as he is would be worth it as well.

 

[JTBF81]

I heard Stamkos was willing to take 4 million per year for 8 years to stay here and the lightning wouldn’t give it to him

Based on unsubstantiated rumors and tons of speculation. There is,
nor will there likely ever be, any actual concrete evidence as to what JBB offered or what Stamkos may have been willing to take to remain in Tampa.

 

[JTBF81]

That's something I've been wondering ever since we let Stamkos go. Maybe is cope, but what if Cirelli's offensive abilities 5v5 have been partially obstructed by Stamkos inability to be a useful player 5v5? It surely has an impact, I guess we'll see this upcoming season if Cirelli is better away from Stammer.
(Even though, if it was the case, we would have probably seen it the times Stammer was slotted with Point and Kuch)

It's possible, and I do think Cirelli is capable of taking another step offensively
He doesn't get alot of time on the power play and usually takes the toughest matchups defensively, but even so, I dont think ~25 goals and 55 or so points is out of the question.

 

[Zwui21]

It's possible, and I do think Cirelli is capable of taking another step offensively
He doesn't get alot of time on the power play and usually takes the toughest matchups defensively, but even so, I dont think ~25 goals and 55 or so points is out of the question.

Based on his AAV, 60 points a year should be the benchmark for making him a good 2C IMO.
I still think what would be better for Tampa would be to trade him before his NTC kicks in (so either this offseason or the next one) and try to get a return similar to Sergachev's trade in term of pieces: younger NHL player with 2C potential signed at a lower AAV + good prospect.
That plus reinvesting part of the saved salary cap to bolster the lineup would make the retool complete and put Tampa to be still a contending team for years to come.

What I deeply regret in term of our retool is having missed out on Hanifin. With him signed long term instead of getting McDonagh from Nashville, we would have been set on D for the long term between him, JJ Moser Heddy and Cernak.