Speculation: 2023-2024 General Lightning Discussion - Part 4

[Sky04]

I think a lot of teams view Sergachev as a #1D and we could sell incredibly high on him. This is likely peak value for him. We could get a great young player on a good deal. Probably a short term deal, but still. That's a trade where it's easy to envision the return being more important to the team, while Sergachev becomes more important to his new team too.

The reality is he's blocked by Hedman, and when that changes, the window is closed anyway.

Yeah I don't see the argument for keeping Sergachev after Hedman, like that's full rebuild time, what are we going to do with a 28-30 year old Sergachev at that point anyways. He's likely going to be traded then to further the rebuild when everyone else is gone. Like you said peak value is right now, he would haul the biggest return and our roster suddenly looks a lot deeper.

Unless you think they aren't bringing back Hedman after next season then sure, makes more sense to hold Serg but I doubt that's the case - look at the season he just had.

 

[DFC]

Yeah I don't see the argument for keeping Sergachev after Hedman, like that's full rebuild time, what are we going to do with a 28-30 year old Sergachev at that point anyways. He's likely going to be traded then to further the rebuild when everyone else is gone. Like you said peak value is right now, he would haul the biggest return and our roster suddenly looks a lot deeper.

Unless you think they aren't bringing back Hedman after next season then sure, makes more sense to hold Serg but I doubt that's the case - look at the season he just had.

Yeah that's the thing. If the hope is to keep the window open, why keep luxury pieces that could be traded to fill massive holes in the roster?

 

[These Are The Days]

Yeah that's the thing. If the hope is to keep the window open, why keep luxury pieces that could be traded to fill massive holes in the roster?

The only reason would be if the coaching staff is convinced that a Cirelli or a Sergachev is the difference in whether or not we win a Cup. Serge is a decent player. But he plateaued at least 5 years ago as a 2nd pairing D who has to be carried by a McDonagh or Cernak. He got fed Hedman's PP1 minutes that 1 year and we're not gonna talk about how disastrous the shorthanded chances against always were.

We could no joke sign Stamkos, Duclair and a very good bottom 6 forward for the cost of Sergachev right now and that's not counting the players, picks and prospects we would get back. But I'm sure we'd be out of cap though

 

[DFC]

The only reason would be if the coaching staff is convinced that a Cirelli or a Sergachev is the difference in whether or not we win a Cup. Serge is a decent player. But he plateaued at least 5 years ago as a 2nd pairing D who has to be carried by a McDonagh or Cernak. He got fed Hedman's PP1 minutes that 1 year and we're not gonna talk about how disastrous the shorthanded chances against always were.

We could no joke sign Stamkos, Duclair and a very good bottom 6 forward for the cost of Sergachev right now and that's not counting the players, picks and prospects we would get back. But I'm sure we'd be out of cap though

The second paragraph is the thing. We could solve a lot of problems at the cost of creating a hole we have already closed with McDonagh.

From the right team, Sergachev nets you two good pieces + an asset. And could also (depending on the roster players coming back) free up a million or two, which could be make or break with Stamkos.

 

[These Are The Days]

The second paragraph is the thing. We could solve a lot of problems at the cost of creating a hole we have already closed with McDonagh.

From the right team, Sergachev nets you two good pieces + an asset. And could also (depending on the roster players coming back) free up a million or two, which could be make or break with Stamkos.

I'm pretty certain that few million is make or break because I think everyone knows what he would sign for here is a pittance compared to what he'd get on the open maeket. If the plan was "Reacquire McDonagh, sign Stamkos to what is left over and let everyone walk" then that is terrifying from the front office and we stand a substantial risk in losing him.

 

[Todd1a]

Damn the lightning resigned a minor leaguer it sent me an alert I was hoping Stamkos resigned lol nope

 

[OffBy1]

The second paragraph is the thing. We could solve a lot of problems at the cost of creating a hole we have already closed with McDonagh.

From the right team, Sergachev nets you two good pieces + an asset. And could also (depending on the roster players coming back) free up a million or two, which could be make or break with Stamkos.

Let's see if the 35 year old McDonagh on the ice closes that as hole as well you think the one on paper does.

Regardless, I think that move essentially boils down to trading away one of the few pieces with upside we have left for another "cup run" that will come up well short. This team hasn't made of it out the first round two years in a row now.

Last year we looked like we belonged in the postseason aside from the key goaltender melting down - though that was against Toronto and they are hardly the post season measuring stick. This year, Point and Kuch were very underwhelming, Selke Man was -6 in 5 games, and we were soundly beaten by an actual contender. We're getting further away, not closer. If we're going to trade Serge, it should be for future pieces as part of the needed rebuild we're in denial about.

 

[These Are The Days]

Let's see if the 35 year old McDonagh on the ice closes that as hole as well you think the one on paper does.

Regardless, I think that move essentially boils down to trading away one of the few pieces with upside we have left for another "cup run" that will come up well short. This team hasn't made of it out the first round two years in a row now.

Last year we looked like we belonged in the postseason aside from the key goaltender melting down - though that was against Toronto and they are hardly the post season measuring stick. This year, Point and Kuch were very underwhelming, Selke Man was -6 in 5 games, and we were soundly beaten by an actual contender. We're getting further away, not closer. If we're going to trade Serge, it should be for future pieces as part of the needed rebuild we're in denial about.

The system we run is broken and we are the most predictable team in the league. We score buckets of goals because we win our games by "You know its coming so try and stop it" Well.... the NHL figured us 3 years ago and I still have no idea how in God's name we got back to the Finals a 3rd year in a row because everyone knew what to do against us and we miraculously executed. An unlucky break the other way the Leafs or NYR win their series. 2 years ago Vasy was broken, last year the Cats saw us run the 1 game plan we have never changed from and the best answer we could come up with was "Let's give Dumba more shifts"

We run the best power play in the league standing f***ing still.... this was the definition of inevitable. We HAVE TO draw up a new game plan in all 3 zones

 

[DFC]

Let's see if the 35 year old McDonagh on the ice closes that as hole as well you think the one on paper does.

Regardless, I think that move essentially boils down to trading away one of the few pieces with upside we have left for another "cup run" that will come up well short. This team hasn't made of it out the first round two years in a row now.

Last year we looked like we belonged in the postseason aside from the key goaltender melting down - though that was against Toronto and they are hardly the post season measuring stick. This year, Point and Kuch were very underwhelming, Selke Man was -6 in 5 games, and we were soundly beaten by an actual contender. We're getting further away, not closer. If we're going to trade Serge, it should be for future pieces as part of the needed rebuild we're in denial about.

You have to wonder how much Barkov held them down. All of the stars who've faced Florida since us have been smothered. Kucherov actually had the best numbers.

The cup run will likely come up short. But we arent in a position to not go for it anyway. Sergachev is not a piece you build around in the "next core." If he's your best defenseman, give up and start over. McDonagh is unlikely to be the 1b he was in his time here, but if he's a 3/4, that still leaves Sergachev making 8.5m while taking on the same responsibility that normal comes with a 2 or 3m cap hit.

 

[RussianGuyovich]

At this point, all of our LD are overpaid. Maybe just get used to it.

 

[Flat Ronnie]

The system we run is broken and we are the most predictable team in the league. We score buckets of goals because we win our games by "You know its coming so try and stop it" Well.... the NHL figured us 3 years ago and I still have no idea how in God's name we got back to the Finals a 3rd year in a row because everyone knew what to do against us and we miraculously executed. An unlucky break the other way the Leafs or NYR win their series. 2 years ago Vasy was broken, last year the Cats saw us run the 1 game plan we have never changed from and the best answer we could come up with was "Let's give Dumba more shifts"

We run the best power play in the league standing f***ing still.... this was the definition of inevitable. We HAVE TO draw up a new game plan in all 3 zones

Can you please explain what this system is, and how teams have figured it out?

 

[Sky04]

That Hedman guy sure is overpaid.

Said no one ever.

 

[Stammertime91]

At this point, all of our LD are overpaid. Maybe just get used to it.

Including Hedman? That's crazy.

 

[Todd1a]

Including Hedman? That's crazy.

lol hedman was underpaid for this 8 year contract he probably should have been paid 9 million per year

 

[Peacefool]

I dont how who we trade and who we will get, but I think that we need someone with leader abbilities, I dont say that Stammer or Heddy or Kuch arent leaders, but we need Maroon, Perry type of player, who can be vocal and who can bring difference in players mood in a crucial moments. Will it be McDonagh? I dont know. But we need some, we won our cups when that last piece were brought to the team (was it after we signed Maroon we won?) Who can fill thoes shoes now if we are going for trades?

 

[These Are The Days]

Can you please explain what this system is, and how teams have figured it out?

We run a tried and true zone defense (but we stink at it) in our end and a primary 3-1-1 (nearly) 4-1 formation in the neutral zone almost 80% of the game without deviation. That's not the problem. The problem is we have done it for 4 years with the same players on the top 6 and everyone has figured us out. We are predictable. The good teams beat the living shit out of us, we feast on bad and average teams. We got Duclair and we were damn near unbeatable for a month because we FINALLY had another flavor on the team. Like that's the issue here. THAT is what is broken.

Before we got Duclair we quadrupled down and let 1 guy run the entire offense so the whole team could play defense as a solution to our predictability problem. It was the wrong answer. I am not saying we have a problem scoring goals. We say "try and stop us" and score anyway. It's controlling the flow of the game so it doesn't wind up in our net. Our game plan has been so dissected it's been turned into Swiss cheese. We can't say "Try and stop us" in shutting down the game. We are too passive. We just say "clog everything" and just pray it works. We need to be willing to grind in the game for longer and not just be content to defend a lead for 45 minutes a night

We have a good team Ronnie. But the band needs to play a different song or write a new one. The crowd is getting restless

 

[Felonious Python]

We run a tried and true zone defense (but we stink at it) in our end and a primary 3-1-1 (nearly) 4-1 formation in the neutral zone almost 80% of the game without deviation. That's not the problem. The problem is we have done it for 4 years with the same players on the top 6 and everyone has figured us out. We are predictable. The good teams beat the living shit out of us, we feast on bad and average teams. We got Duclair and we were damn near unbeatable for a month because we FINALLY had another flavor on the team. Like that's the issue here. THAT is what is broken.

Before we got Duclair we quadrupled down and let 1 guy run the entire offense so the whole team could play defense as a solution to our predictability problem. It was the wrong answer. I am not saying we have a problem scoring goals. We say "try and stop us" and score anyway. It's controlling the flow of the game so it doesn't wind up in our net. Our game plan has been so dissected it's been turned into Swiss cheese. We can't say "Try and stop us" in shutting down the game. We are too passive. We just say "clog everything" and just pray it works. We need to be willing to grind in the game for longer and not just be content to defend a lead for 45 minutes a night

We have a good team Ronnie. But the band needs to play a different song or write a new one. The crowd is getting restless

There's nothing fundamentally wrong with 1-1-3 or zone, or continuing to play it year-over-year.



It's the giveaways and loss of focus.

 

[Flat Ronnie]

There's nothing fundamentally wrong with 1-1-3 or zone, or continuing to play it year-over-year.



It's the giveaways and loss of focus.

Silly question: is the first number defense or forward?

 

[Felonious Python]

Silly question: is the first number defense or forward?

Soccer starts from the defensive end. 4-4-2, for example.

Hockey starts from the attacking side. 1-1-3, 1-2-2, for example.

 

[These Are The Days]

There's nothing fundamentally wrong with 1-1-3 or zone, or continuing to play it year-over-year.



It's the giveaways and loss of focus.

I have no problem with the structure. I have a problem with how passive we are once we begin to manipulate it. We played with our food all year.

Long version here


We often started games fast and then we would call off the dogs. Once we got 2 goals, (especially if we were up 2-0) we would alter our neutral zone strategy to nothing more than a vehicle for 45 minutes of F1 just straight up dumping the puck and half assed chasing it into the corner while the other 4 Lightning players aren't even on the screen.

F1 gets swallowed by the 5 guys defending their end and can't do a damn thing about the 1st pass out of the zone and by now (usually) 3 guys have blown through the 1st line of defense. F2 holds his ground for like 2 seconds and gets left to die because D1, D2, F3 are running a fly route backwards and either immediately give up the blue line or rush to the corner where the puck is going on the ensuing dump in by the other team. Best case scenario F2 fly routes back too and we get lucky with a turnover. There's no counter attack. There's no pressure coming from us. We run fire drills and get outshot and outplayed at even strength. If we managed to hold whatever lead we got our SOG over a given game would go from like 14 in the 1st period to 3 and 5 in the 2nd and 3rd.

But that often was not the case. We were at the top of the NHL in 3rd period goals because it was "Oh shit. They better score because they blew that 2 goal lead and just gave up 3 goals!!" and the second we needed to dig another goal out, we would. We'd ratchet up the pace to a track meet

Dallas Eakins once said some galaxy brain "He's so smart he's stupid" crap with "The perfect game is no hits" and ours felt like "The perfect game is no SOG" once we had a 2 goal lead 15 minutes into a game

 

[RussianGuyovich]

Including Hedman? That's crazy.

Yes that would be one of our LD

 

[Felonious Python]

New Lightning lore just dropped.

 

[AHockeyFanatic]

Me personally, I’m a fan of Tanner Jeannot.

Only stonkers will understand.

 

[These Are The Days]

New Lightning lore just dropped.

Champagne problems but the season runs way too late. Like everyone should have their 1st game by October 2nd and the Stanley Cup won by like May 30th. The Cup is gonna be contested in Florida's 95 degree weather yet again. It's freaking bonkers to me

 

[These Are The Days]

Apparently the rights to Guentzel can be had for a mid round pick. Mother of God. Trade one of Cirelli or Sergachev immediately. The Kings will probably move Kaliyev for Jeannot. It would absolutely be crazy enough to work. Stamkos and the team are not that far apart in AAV