The Oilers have won 5 straight, but they had 5 nights off before last night so they haven't seen that translate to a big surge in the standings. They are currently sitting 7 points behind the WC2 spot, but with 3 games in hand (and a healthy looking McDavid), that feels more like a 3-4 point hole than a 7 point hole. They've been getting competent-to-good goaltending lately, but they have been scoring enough that this doesn't feel like a goalie-driven win streak. They scored 5+ in four of the five wins and they didn't just beat up bad teams. They beat 3 teams currently in playoff position (Vegas, Winnipeg, Carolina) as well as a Washington team who is on the playoff bubble. The forwards have bought their front office time to be patient about the goaltending situation.
Minnesota is 4-1 since the coaching change and is also scoring goals. This one feels less real to me than Edmonton's streak. Their 4 wins came against us, Chicago, Calgary, and Nashville. None of those wins impress me as much as a Vegas/Winnipeg win and they got shutout by the Canucks. At 6 points out with 2 games in hand, they are in roughly the same standings position as Edmonton and I do expect them to play better than their disastrous start. But I'm not penciling them into a playoff spot as comfortably as I still am with Edmonton.
I bring all this up in this thread instead of the 'Around the NHL' thread because they are two teams currently chasing us for our current position as a bubble team. Our .540 points percentage (88.5 point pace) is currently 8th best in the Conference, but the play of these teams is making it increasingly less likely that the end-of-year WC2 spot is achievable with 89 points. Edmonton or Minnesota needs to play at a .586 points pace for the rest of the year in order to hit the 90 point threshold. I would put money on at least one of those two teams managing to do that. Winnipeg has to play .509 down the stretch to hit 90 points and the 5 teams above them in the standings can all get to 90 points by playing .500 or worse.
The likely playoff cut line in the West has crept upward in the last couple weeks (even though it is still looking like that line will be well below the cut line in the East). I think this team will need to get slightly better results in the next 25 games than we got in our first 25 games to still be as 'in the hunt' as we've been for the last month. Let's call it the next 24 games since that is the number of games left before the All Star break. We have 27 points in the first 25 games and I'd say we probably need at least 27 points in those 24 games before the break.
While this team is incredibly hard to predict, I would say that it is doable. We have been noticeably better at home than on the road so far and I think there is an argument to be made that the Krug-Faulk pair is much better positioned for success when we have last change. We played 11 of our first 25 games at home, but 14 of our 24 games before All Star weekend are at home. We went 3-1 against teams currently in the bottom 5 (by points percentage) in our first 25 games and we have 5 such games in our next 24 games (Chicago twice, Columbus twice, and Seattle). We went 2-6-1 against top 10 teams in our first 25 games. We have 10 such games in our next 24. So I don't see a huge difference in terms of strength of schedule.
Whether we like it or not, this team has been (just) good enough that they are playing meaningful hockey in December. We've got 11 games in the next 23 days to close out 2023 that will dictate whether they are still playing meaningful games in January. The next 9 days are pretty big as December games go. Road B2B against 2 of the worst 5 teams in the league. Then you get a 3 game home stand. You could take care of business on short travel weekend or you can fall into a trap and put your back against the wall for a 3 game homestand against a Wings team that just added Kane to a team that's been playing well, a pretty desperate Ottawa team, and then a really good Dallas team.
Should be an interesting 9 days, especially if Edmonton and Minnesota keep winning to provide pressure from behind.
Edit: FWIW, I think stretches like this are what you want when you talk about building/maintaining a winning culture. Hofer is going to have to play 1 and maybe 2 of these next 5 games and there will be real pressure on him in that game from the organization. We need Neighbours to continue contributing not just for his own development, but to help the team right now. Who is buying into the coach vs tuning them out when the games actually matter for something? There is a tangible difference when a roster is still playing for a team goal vs a group of guys playing for their agent to get them a job elsewhere the next season (or at the deadline).
