2023-2024 Blues Multi-Purpose Thread

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Thanks for that.

Here’s a link for anyone else that wants to watch it.

Interesting admittal of him benefiting from nepotism/good ole boys network at the beginning of the interview.

Other than that, it wasn’t really much new but the guy clearly has a plan. Interesting that he talked about how the Blues, Pens and Caps were in the same boat - the Pens doubled down while the Blues backed off. It’s a fair point as with as many future HHOFers PIT has, they’re way too old and just delaying their rebuild IMO.

Thanks for posting. Army is such a great interview. He is always so thoughtful and purposeful when he does these. And he again reaffirms that we are in a rebuild but he doesn’t intend to strip roster all the way down, which fits what we are seeing. Once the kids are ready to really contribute we will try to be aggressive adding (like kings have done), but he isn’t going to sacrifice real assets for short term fixes.

That said, it’s going to be interesting what we do with buchy. He will be 30 when his contract expires; do we deal him to add assets to aid in rebuild or do we resign him to try to speed it along. Is hard, bc we don’t want to suck for another 5+ years and buchy is one of our top players. I gotta think if we can get close to Timo package we look to deal him between now and 24 draft. If offers are basically 1st and mediocre prospect, I think we let it ride and see what extension looks like. If can’t work out anything can always deal him at deadline for that.

 

[taylord22]

Thanks for posting. Army is such a great interview. He is always so thoughtful and purposeful when he does these. And he again reaffirms that we are in a rebuild but he doesn’t intend to strip roster all the way down, which fits what we are seeing. Once the kids are ready to really contribute we will try to be aggressive adding (like kings have done), but he isn’t going to sacrifice real assets for short term fixes.

That said, it’s going to be interesting what we do with buchy. He will be 30 when his contract expires; do we deal him to add assets to aid in rebuild or do we resign him to try to speed it along. Is hard, bc we don’t want to suck for another 5+ years and buchy is one of our top players. I gotta think if we can get close to Timo package we look to deal him between now and 24 draft. If offers are basically 1st and mediocre prospect, I think we let it ride and see what extension looks like. If can’t work out anything can always deal him at deadline for that.

The forward group is a puzzle Army can actually manipulate, unlike the locked defensive group. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up adding a top-6 winger well in advance of the TDL to get a view on what this team looks like with a more balance top-6 before making decisions around Buchy.

The top 6 is gapped out on at least one winger spot, now, and will be so next year as well if we choose to move on from Buchy. I expect they'll dangle the "how would you like to receive passes from Thomas" carrot to Snuggy to get him to sign. Whether he earns that spot outright or flexes up/down depending on play is up to him.

Regardless, we're likely staring down the barrel of another year with Schenn as the 2C and an overabundance of 3rd line quality players with limited offensive pop. You have to boot Vrana out, but I could see guys like Torpo/Kap being someone aspirational teams might overpay for in a package. Prior to their/his start, I would've probably circled a guy like Garland as being the quality of player we need to plug the top 6 for a couple of years while we wait.

Or maybe Bolduc isn't on a timetable that Army likes, so he swaps him for a player further along. Doing so helps balance out the lines, creates necessary room for succession, and gives Army a better indication on what the "+" in a potential Buch package is. The Buchy decision is a big enough one that he certainly has to create some contingencies around it if he wants to keep straddling the competitive line.

 

[Thallis]

The forward group is a puzzle Army can actually manipulate, unlike the locked defensive group. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up adding a top-6 winger well in advance of the TDL to get a view on what this team looks like with a more balance top-6 before making decisions around Buchy.

The top 6 is gapped out on at least one winger spot, now, and will be so next year as well if we choose to move on from Buchy. I expect they'll dangle the "how would you like to receive passes from Thomas" carrot to Snuggy to get him to sign. Whether he earns that spot outright or flexes up/down depending on play is up to him.

Regardless, we're likely staring down the barrel of another year with Schenn as the 2C and an overabundance of 3rd line quality players with limited offensive pop. You have to boot Vrana out, but I could see guys like Torpo/Kap being someone aspirational teams might overpay for in a package. Prior to their/his start, I would've probably circled a guy like Garland as being the quality of player we need to plug the top 6 for a couple of years while we wait.

Or maybe Bolduc isn't on a timetable that Army likes, so he swaps him for a player further along. Doing so helps balance out the lines, creates necessary room for succession, and gives Army a better indication on what the "+" in a potential Buch package is. The Buchy decision is a big enough one that he certainly has to create some contingencies around it if he wants to keep straddling the competitive line.

Considering Snuggerud is under PPG for the season right now, I don't see any kind of guarantees like that from Armstrong unless he has an explosive 2nd half of the season. In the Seravalli interview he talked about preferring to put younger players in the AHL, so I'm not expecting any guarantees to entice signing. I don't think we're particularly worried about him bolting via Free Agency either.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Considering Snuggerud is under PPG for the season right now, I don't see any kind of guarantees like that from Armstrong unless he has an explosive 2nd half of the season. In the Seravalli interview he talked about preferring to put younger players in the AHL, so I'm not expecting any guarantees to entice signing. I don't think we're particularly worried about him bolting via Free Agency either.

In regards to Snuggs, I look at what Boeser did in his 1st year, compared to his second year in college. To me, point production doesn't matter, especially when the line from last season is completely broken up.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

In regards to Snuggs, I look at what Boeser did in his 1st year, compared to his second year in college. To me, point production doesn't matter, especially when the line from last season is completely broken up.

Yeah, I don’t think he has regressed either. Snuggly is still scoring, but his assists have dropped way off. It’s just so much harder to produce points consistently when you replace 2 nhl guys on your line with a couple of college kids. Guys like Moore will likely be nhl player, but Cooley and knows already at that level. Big difference. Snuggly will be fine.

 

[Thallis]

Yeah, I don’t think he has regressed either. Snuggly is still scoring, but his assists have dropped way off. It’s just so much harder to produce points consistently when you replace 2 nhl guys on your line with a couple of college kids. Guys like Moore will likely be nhl player, but Cooley and knows already at that level. Big difference. Snuggly will be fine.

I don't think it's a regression, but I'm also not convinced the ready to step directly into the the NHL world beater he played like in the first half of last season is who he is either. As it turns out Logan Cooley is really good so I'm still trying to gauge where I should have Snuggerud in regards to my expectations & when he'll be able to step onto an NHL roster. His goal total is encouraging, but 4 of them did come against a pretty clearly behind St. Thomas team. We also might want him in the AHL to finish the season to keep the 3 years of ELC control as opposed to denying arbitration rights.

 

[Xerloris]

I recently moved and the only internet available to me is Starlink but the new house is surrounded by trees. I set it up and it aims almost straight up to the north, completely clearing all trees. It's the best internet I have ever had.

 

[Brian39]

Looking at stats today, and the Blues have given up the 2nd most high danger chances in the league. Only ahead of obviously San Jose.

It’s crazy how much Binnington bailing out the team has spun the media narrative and fan narrative, of how much better we’re “protecting the middle of the ice.”

It’s still a huge problem. But you wouldn’t really know it based on how people have been raving about Parayko, Faulk, Krug, and even Perunovich and Scandella on the 3rd pair this year. The defense is still bad, even if they’re slightly better than last season. Binnington is basically playing out of his mind.

I think both of these things can be true: We are giving up a ton of high danger chances and the D is also doing a much better job of protecting the middle of the ice than they were last year.

I am seeing significantly fewer tic tac toe passing plays against us that end in a back door tap in where the goalie has a 1% chance of making the save. I'm still seeing a lot of rush chances against, I'm still seeing a lot of shots coming from the low slot, and I'm still seeing a lot of plays where Binner/Hofer are having to push hard laterally to make a save. But I am seeing much fewer of those chances where our goalie has to push hard laterally to make a save, but then instead of facing a shot when he arrives, there is an additional lateral pass to another uncovered attacker who now has an empty net to shoot at.

As a goalie, I'd take one breakaway plus one 2-on-1 with a single cross crease pass over one play where I have to explode laterally to cover a cross crease one-timer only for the (assumed) shooter to be able to thread a pass back across the middle to a guy sitting untouched on the backdoor from the side I started on. the odds of me being able to stop the breakaway and the 2 on 1 are better than me being able to make a paddle save as I slide the wrong way and the shooter faces a wide open net.

We are still allowing too many opportunities where the goalie has to make a very good or great save to prevent a goal. But I think we are also allowing far fewer opportunities where the goalie would have to make a save of the year candidate to prevent a goal. I don't think I've ever watched a team that allowed as many 'the goalie had absolutely no chance' goals as last year's Blues. While I don't think Binner was a top 10 NHL goalie last year, I do think that he played way better than his numbers suggested because I don't think any (public) model accurately measured just how high danger the chances we allowed were. I see way fewer of those types of plays this year.

 

[Celtic Note]

I think both of these things can be true: We are giving up a ton of high danger chances and the D is also doing a much better job of protecting the middle of the ice than they were last year.

I am seeing significantly fewer tic tac toe passing plays against us that end in a back door tap in where the goalie has a 1% chance of making the save. I'm still seeing a lot of rush chances against, I'm still seeing a lot of shots coming from the low slot, and I'm still seeing a lot of plays where Binner/Hofer are having to push hard laterally to make a save. But I am seeing much fewer of those chances where our goalie has to push hard laterally to make a save, but then instead of facing a shot when he arrives, there is an additional lateral pass to another uncovered attacker who now has an empty net to shoot at.

As a goalie, I'd take one breakaway plus one 2-on-1 with a single cross crease pass over one play where I have to explode laterally to cover a cross crease one-timer only for the (assumed) shooter to be able to thread a pass back across the middle to a guy sitting untouched on the backdoor from the side I started on. the odds of me being able to stop the breakaway and the 2 on 1 are better than me being able to make a paddle save as I slide the wrong way and the shooter faces a wide open net.

We are still allowing too many opportunities where the goalie has to make a very good or great save to prevent a goal. But I think we are also allowing far fewer opportunities where the goalie would have to make a save of the year candidate to prevent a goal. I don't think I've ever watched a team that allowed as many 'the goalie had absolutely no chance' goals as last year's Blues. While I don't think Binner was a top 10 NHL goalie last year, I do think that he played way better than his numbers suggested because I don't think any (public) model accurately measured just how high danger the chances we allowed were. I see way fewer of those types of plays this year.

I hear what you are saying and agree we are better but the bar was on the floor last year and compared to the rest of the league…we still haven’t made up enough ground to be good enough.

 

[PJJJP]

What are some good hockey analytics sites? Also what are the drawbacks that the analytical models have in general? I'm trying to understand more on the analytical side of hockey

 

[Thallis]

What are some good hockey analytics sites? Also what are the drawbacks that the analytical models have in general? I'm trying to understand more on the analytical side of hockey

Natural Stat Trick & Moneypuck are the biggest free sites. Partial or fully paid ones are Evolving Hockey, Hockey Viz, All 3 Zones. All 3 Zones is technically microstats and not analytics, but it's very good for providing data on things that are typically not captured anywhere else but fully private models that NHL teams and media members have access to.

The biggest problem with most of these is the data they're provided. They don't have any passing data available so they can't calculate their xG models around that. It leads to the models typically overrating shot volume ala Carolina and Calgary while underrating quality of chance. For most teams this isn't a huge deal, but for some, the Blues and Rangers in particular, it leads to the models not looking as favorably on them to provide an accurate picture. All 3 Zones can bridge the gap some, but it's a project done manually by one guy and it requires you to put the picture together on your own.

 

[PJJJP]

Natural Stat Trick & Moneypuck are the biggest free sites. Partial or fully paid ones are Evolving Hockey, Hockey Viz, All 3 Zones. All 3 Zones is technically microstats and not analytics, but it's very good for providing data on things that are typically not captured anywhere else but fully private models that NHL teams and media members have access to.

The biggest problem with most of these is the data they're provided. They don't have any passing data available so they can't calculate their xG models around that. It leads to the models typically overrating shot volume ala Carolina and Calgary while underrating quality of chance. For most teams this isn't a huge deal, but for some, the Blues and Rangers in particular, it leads to the models not looking as favorably on them to provide an accurate picture. All 3 Zones can bridge the gap some, but it's a project done manually by one guy and it requires you to put the picture together on your own.

Ah thank you. So most of them have an incomplete picture at best. I saw on twitter Jfresh who has his data model that he posted a projected point standings based on SportLogiq's all situations expected goals and it paints a more favorable picture of the blues compared to other sites. Have you heard/know anything about how they calculate things?

 

[Thallis]

Ah thank you. So most of them have an incomplete picture at best. I saw on twitter Jfresh who has his data model that he posted a projected point standings based on SportLogiq's all situations expected goals and it paints a more favorable picture of the blues compared to other sites. Have you heard/know anything about how they calculate things?

Sportlogiq has an AI model that identifies players and tracks shot, passing, and location data based on it. From what I've gathered over the years both it and ClearSight are generally better as a predictive tool than public data, but I am a lowly random who is not allowed to access. Public advanced stats are, as you say, incomplete. However, this doesn't make them useless, as they are the best prediction stats the general public has, and there still is not a Stanley cup champion in the past 10+ years who was lower than 50% public xGF over the season.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

JR with nice article on Buchy today. Got lots of quotes from teammates to paint much more complete picture of him than I've seen. This is where JR excels, as he is good feature writer and crappy reporter.

 

[STL fan in MN]

JR with nice article on Buchy today. Got lots of quotes from teammates to paint much more complete picture of him than I've seen. This is where JR excels, as he is good feature writer and crappy reporter.

Yeah, that was a nice article. Lots of very good quotes. This one was my favorite:

Perunovich: I had him open in the middle on the power play one time, and he doesn’t come over and say, “F—ing give me the puck.” He says, “I’ll present myself better in the middle. I’ll do a better job of presenting my stick. I’ll do whatever you want. But just look for me.” And he’s never yelling. He’ll just give me a quick, 25-second chat in the locker room. He’ll talk to me privately and say, “You’re a good player, trust yourself, and have the confidence you can make plays.” Hearing it from a guy who’s a helluva hockey player and sees the game really well, that gives confidence to me when I might be lacking it. And he doesn’t want any credit or anything. I feel better, and then he disappears into the darkness.

And this one was good too:

Thomas: If you were watching in training camp, Buchy was watching Zach Dean and Zachary Bolduc go down on a three-on-two, and he pulled them over afterward and said, “Hey do this. … Give your teammate a little more time.” It’s stuff that goes under the radar.

 

[bleedblue1223]

He almost feels like Bouwmeester. One of those leaders on the team in the sense that they lead by example, maybe aren't the most vocal leaders, but when they speak, it's calm and always impactful.

 

[Reality Czech]

JR with nice article on Buchy today. Got lots of quotes from teammates to paint much more complete picture of him than I've seen. This is where JR excels, as he is good feature writer and crappy reporter.

I'm such a big fan of Buchy on and off the ice. He's got such an entertaining personality but he also seems to be a bit hard on himself at times too. In that locket room video after the 8-2 win, Berube said something to Buchy like "now you're smiling again, aren't you?" Which suggests to me that he's pretty hard on himself when he's not playing well.

Would love to sign him long term though of course that has a lot to do with his contract demands and where he wants to be. Hope both sides can make it work. Army takes a lot of crap for his perceived misses but what a hell of a trade that was to get Buchnevich. Masterclass in general managing.

 

[Mike Liut]

I’m 50-50 on Buch. I’d love to trade him for a haul and have those players fit our next window, but I wouldn’t mind extending him in case our window starts a little sooner. I’m ok either way, but this has no affect on how I feel about him as a player. He’s a damn good player.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I won't complain either way on what we do with Buchnevich. I would think he plays in a way that will age well, and I think he can definitely play a big part in helping in the development of the young guys like Dvorsky, Stenberg, Dean, Snuggerud, Bolduc, etc.

 

[BlueDream]

He almost feels like Bouwmeester. One of those leaders on the team in the sense that they lead by example, maybe aren't the most vocal leaders, but when they speak, it's calm and always impactful.

Seems to be much more energetic than Bouw though. Two different personalities.

JR with nice article on Buchy today. Got lots of quotes from teammates to paint much more complete picture of him than I've seen. This is where JR excels, as he is good feature writer and crappy reporter.

That article legitimately made me laugh a couple times. Funniest quote IMO was Toropchenko’s about Buchnevich and his body. The fantasy football stuff is pretty hilarious too.

I am interested to see how much of him being a culture piece plays into a contract extension and how important the Blues view him there. Obviously they know he’s important but will they pass up on getting a great futures package in exchange for keeping him.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Seems to be much more energetic than Bouw though. Two different personalities.

Yeah, definitely different personalities, I was thinking more from how he speaks with teammates on the ice, the ones with Perunovich, Dean, and Bolduc.

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

 

[BlueDream]

Glad Tucker is back in. He deserves to stay in for a stretch of games to gain some confidence and ice time. But the Blues need to play Scandella on the right side instead of him. Not sure why they can’t figure that out.

I will say, I am not a big fan of Perunovich as a player, but I do like that he takes accountability for himself instead of pointing fingers or making excuses. Korac posted a quote where he admitted he was “f***ing terrible” yesterday, and he also took the blame for his injury last year too. So he has the right mindset at least.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

I won't complain either way on what we do with Buchnevich. I would think he plays in a way that will age well, and I think he can definitely play a big part in helping in the development of the young guys like Dvorsky, Stenberg, Dean, Snuggerud, Bolduc, etc.

I would love if we went the Tkachuk route with him. Hold him till next years deadline, get a haul, but also promise him we would have a contract waiting for him in free agency. Its no guarantee, but this would give us a shot at obtaining assets and retaining him long term.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

Glad Tucker is back in. He deserves to stay in for a stretch of games to gain some confidence and ice time. But the Blues need to play Scandella on the right side instead of him. Not sure why they can’t figure that out.

I will say, I am not a big fan of Perunovich as a player, but I do like that he takes accountability for himself instead of pointing fingers or making excuses. Korac posted a quote where he admitted he was “f***ing terrible” yesterday, and he also took the blame for his injury last year too. So he has the right mindset at least.

If Perunovich the player was as good as Perunovich the person, we'd have a young star on our hands. I'm really pulling for him to put things together at this level. Having his puck movement skills as the left side of our third pairing, and a potential PP QB, on an affordable contract would be great.