Speculation: 2022 Summer/off season Sharks Roster Discussion

[LadyStanley]

Some upcoming critical dates (bolded dates are those delayed for this off season):

• June 15 (or 48 hours after Stanley Cup awarded, whichever is later): (First) NHL buyout window begins
• June 15 or 48 hours after awarding of Stanley Cup (whichever is later) -> July 2, Deadline for First Club-Elected Salary Arbitration Notification (5:00 p.m. New York time)
• June 25 or Monday after Entry Draft (whichever is later) ->July 11, deadline for Qualifying Offers to RFAs
• June 26 or Tuesday after Entry Draft (whichever is later) ->July 12, RFAs can meet and talk with current/potential new clubs (but cannot sign offer sheets or contract until start of signing period)
• June 30 -> July 1: (First) NHL buyout window ends
• June 30 -> July 12: Deadline for teams to sign own players to 8 year extension
• July 7-8, NHL Entry Draft, Montreal QC
• July 1-> July 13:, Signing period begins (noon ET/9am PT) FREE AGENCY
• July 1-> July 13:, Qualifying offers open for acceptance
• July 1 ->July 13, nominal deadline for no-trade lists to be submitted
• July 5 ->July 17, Deadline for player selected salary arbitration
• July 5 ->July 17, Deadline for RFA offer sheets for team-selected arbitration (First Club-Elected Salary Arbitration)
• July 5 ->July 17 5:01pm ET (2:01pm PT), Start of Second Club-Elected Salary Arbitration period
• July 6 ->July 18, Deadline for Second Club-Elected Salary Arbitration
• July 15 ->July 22, QOs expire
• July 20 ->July 27, first day of NHL salary arbitration hearings
• August 4 ->August 11: last possible day of NHL salary arbitration hearings
• August 6 ->August 13: Deadline for salary arbitration decisions to be rendered
• August 15: Deadline to sign just-graduated college players

 

[TheBeard]

IIRC, the Sharks showed interest in Marchment way back when, and given their tendency to lock in on guys,,,

I think he gets overpaid but I’d have no problems having a Marchment back on the ice.

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

Maybe Larry wants the team?

Larry David? Not sure that would work

 

[themelkman]

Sharks should allow Dahlen, Meloche or Leonard to go to arbitration. Let us open another buyout window for the new GM if he decides thats what he wants to do with Vlasic.

 

[LadyStanley]

Sharks should allow Dahlen, Meloche or Leonard to go to arbitration. Let us open another buyout window for the new GM if he decides thats what he wants to do with Vlasic.

Club can take player to arbitration as well.

 

[Gecklund]

Club can take player to arbitration as well.

Does that still open a buyout window?

 

[LadyStanley]

Does that still open a buyout window?

Yes

 

[stator]

Watching Stanley cup finals depresses me. These elite teams are SO MUCH better than us, I don't see how we catch up in the next 3 years at all....Maybe 5-10 years...Need to find a new username.

I don't see how they can in 3 years.

At three years, Couture and Karlsson's contracts are going to weigh that much more heavier. Plus Vlasic will have one more year, but Burns will be UFA at that time.

Hertl's NMC moves to a 3 team trade list in 3 years as he would be 31. It won't move to a 15 team trade list until the last two years. He will be 35 at that time, and most of his trade value will be lost.

Sharks need a full rebuild with all skaters on the trading block making $2m/yr or more. If they move Hertl and/or Meier now, they need to move one of Couture's, Karlsson, or Vlasic contracts with it. Even if it's a 3-way trade.

Sharks are going almost nowhere if they cannot move bad contracts. They have too many.

 

[LadyStanley]

Leonard, Dahlen, Meloche, Kahkonen, Sawchenko are the Sharks RFAs with arbitration rights.

I'm thinking that Sawchenko won't be QOd, so wouldn't be a part of arbitration.

(Will update later with minimum QO for each. Or someonecan get $$ from capfriendly.com)

 

[LadyStanley]

(After final two concerts that I subbed this weekend.....) From CapFriendly.com....

Minimum QOs
Dahlen: $787,500
Leonard: $874,125
Meloche: $787,500
Kahkonen: $787,500

 

[Barrie22]

(After final two concerts that I subbed this weekend.....) From CapFriendly.com....

Minimum QOs
Dahlen: $787,500
Leonard: $874,125
Meloche: $787,500
Kahkonen: $787,500

Kahkonen and meloch probably get qualified.

 

[themelkman]

(After final two concerts that I subbed this weekend.....) From CapFriendly.com....

Minimum QOs
Dahlen: $787,500
Leonard: $874,125
Meloche: $787,500
Kahkonen: $787,500

I would expect all get qualified.

 

[Cas]

I would expect all get qualified.

I can't see a reason not to qualify Leonard, for instance - he's waiver-exempt and might still have a chance to turn into a useful player. Dahlen had a rough second half, but probably deserves another look as well because he was legitimately contributing early in the year.

 

[Gecklund]

(After final two concerts that I subbed this weekend.....) From CapFriendly.com....

Minimum QOs
Dahlen: $787,500
Leonard: $874,125
Meloche: $787,500
Kahkonen: $787,500

I’d think all get qualified with Kahkonen getting a higher contract and possibly Dahlen.

 

[matt trick]

I don't see how they can in 3 years.

At three years, Couture and Karlsson's contracts are going to weigh that much more heavier. Plus Vlasic will have one more year, but Burns will be UFA at that time.

Hertl's NMC moves to a 3 team trade list in 3 years as he would be 31. It won't move to a 15 team trade list until the last two years. He will be 35 at that time, and most of his trade value will be lost.

Sharks need a full rebuild with all skaters on the trading block making $2m/yr or more. If they move Hertl and/or Meier now, they need to move one of Couture's, Karlsson, or Vlasic contracts with it. Even if it's a 3-way trade.

Sharks are going almost nowhere if they cannot move bad contracts. They have too many.

Agreed.

Even if you won the lottery next year and got Bedard/Michkov and pick the right player in this draft, it'll be awfully tough without a few major pick-ups or development from non-Eklund/Bordeleau/Merkley prospects, who themselves all have bust potential.

Hertl, Meier, Bedard, Couture, Eklund, Karlsson, Ferraro, Merkley, 2022 1st*, Kahokenen, and decent (not good) pieces, acquired for Reimer, Burns, Bonino, Balcers, and your still quite a few pieces away with Karlsson aging out.

Eklund-Hertl-Trade/UFA
Couture-Bedard-Meier
X-Bordeleau-X

2022 1st-Karlsson
Ferraro-Trade
Kniazev/Knyzhov-Merkley

*Next year's draft may have two first line C's, and one franchise wing, and several other first line forwards. As such, it feels like the dream scenario for the team this year is to hit a home run on a guy who can become a #1/2 D, like Chabot, Chychyrn, and McAvoy in recent years. One of those guys will very likely be drafted in 11-30 range, unfortunately, I have minimal confidence in SJ's ability to pick the right one.

 

[Gecklund]

Agreed.

Even if you won the lottery next year and got Bedard/Michkov and pick the right player in this draft, it'll be awfully tough without a few major pick-ups or development from non-Eklund/Bordeleau/Merkley prospects, who themselves all have bust potential.

Hertl, Meier, Bedard, Couture, Eklund, Karlsson, Ferraro, Merkley, 2022 1st*, Kahokenen, and decent (not good) pieces, acquired for Reimer, Burns, Bonino, Balcers, and your still quite a few pieces away with Karlsson aging out.

Eklund-Hertl-Trade/UFA
Couture-Bedard-Meier
X-Bordeleau-X

2022 1st-Karlsson
Ferraro-Trade
Kniazev/Knyzhov-Merkley

*Next year's draft may have two first line C's, and one franchise wing, and several other first line forwards. As such, it feels like the dream scenario for the team this year is to hit a home run on a guy who can become a #1/2 D, like Chabot, Chychyrn, and McAvoy in recent years. One of those guys will very likely be drafted in 11-30 range, unfortunately, I have minimal confidence in SJ's ability to pick the right one.

One thing I will say, there is 0 possibility any LHD that will be drafted with our first this year will be a good partner for EK. Korchinski, Mintyukov, Mateychuk all are more offensive leaning with a pretty high possibility to be two way players. I do think though that BPA at our pick will be a forward.

 

[STL Shark]

Listen, I ain't placing any stanley cup bets on them, I'm just merely stating there's too much talent for this team to be able to tank properly. Sure, injuries can happen and dramatically derail a season, but that really applies to everyone. Look at Las Vegas.

The question is are the Sharks able to out-tank Arizona, Philadelphia, Seattle, Montreal, Chicago, or Anaheim. Those teams are all way worse than the Sharks are right now. Like you said, while they're not world beaters it would take a lot of movement and regression to make this team worse than those teams currently are.

Outside of next season with COL (pre Mackinnon extension that blows up their debt and compounds their lack of prospects and picks), there are not really any teams that look like they'll have a stranglehold on the next 5 years or so like TB and COL have the past 3 years (that everyone could see coming a mile away based on their prospect systems).

Don't do something stupid and go all in right now to try and turn this core around, but also don't think it needs to be a blow it all up immediately and dive both feet down a particular path. Let things shake out leaguewide, get some money off the books and sit back and wait for a desperate team looking for a shake up to make a move they regret (like the Karlsson deal with SJ).

 

[TheBeard]

I agree. They’re still in an incredibly weak division which means wins are more probable than say in the East and there are a fair amount of teams out there that have nothing in terms of viable talent.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

The question is are the Sharks able to out-tank Arizona, Philadelphia, Seattle, Montreal, Chicago, or Anaheim. Those teams are all way worse than the Sharks are right now. Like you said, while they're not world beaters it would take a lot of movement and regression to make this team worse than those teams currently are.

Outside of next season with COL (pre Mackinnon extension that blows up their debt and compounds their lack of prospects and picks), there are not really any teams that look like they'll have a stranglehold on the next 5 years or so like TB and COL have the past 3 years (that everyone could see coming a mile away based on their prospect systems).

Don't do something stupid and go all in right now to try and turn this core around, but also don't think it needs to be a blow it all up immediately and dive both feet down a particular path. Let things shake out leaguewide, get some money off the books and sit back and wait for a desperate team looking for a shake up to make a move they regret (like the Karlsson deal with SJ).

Way worse is probably exaggeration. They were luckier than those teams this season but in terms of effective play where it means the most, they're pretty much a bottom five team and they absolutely can get worse that wouldn't take a whole hell of a lot. This team just moves one of its point producers and/or gets a serious injury to any of them and they will bottom out again.

 

[LadyStanley]

Paywall
Possible cap relief/asset exchange?

 

[Herschel]

I don't see how they can in 3 years.

At three years, Couture and Karlsson's contracts are going to weigh that much more heavier. Plus Vlasic will have one more year, but Burns will be UFA at that time.

Hertl's NMC moves to a 3 team trade list in 3 years as he would be 31. It won't move to a 15 team trade list until the last two years. He will be 35 at that time, and most of his trade value will be lost.

Sharks need a full rebuild with all skaters on the trading block making $2m/yr or more. If they move Hertl and/or Meier now, they need to move one of Couture's, Karlsson, or Vlasic contracts with it. Even if it's a 3-way trade.

Sharks are going almost nowhere if they cannot move bad contracts. They have too many.

Depending on how you want to classify the beginning of the Avs rebuild it started:

13 seasons ago by drafting Duchene 3OA
11 seasons ago by drafting Landeskog 2OA
9 seasons ago by drafting Mackinnon 1OA

Full tank rebuilds tend to yield cup wins a decade down the road.

 

[STL Shark]

Way worse is probably exaggeration. They were luckier than those teams this season but in terms of effective play where it means the most, they're pretty much a bottom five team and they absolutely can get worse that wouldn't take a whole hell of a lot. This team just moves one of its point producers and/or gets a serious injury to any of them and they will bottom out again.

Their bottom is nowhere near the bottom of Arizona, Chicago (after they trade Kane, Debrincat, and Strome), Seattle, or Montreal.

 

[TheWayToRefJose]

Their bottom is nowhere near the bottom of Arizona, Chicago (after they trade Kane, Debrincat, and Strome), Seattle, or Montreal.

And yet a lot closer to the bottom of those teams than the elite teams.

We’re more likely to get a top 3 pick next year than to make the playoffs and win a single round, much less a cup.

 

[exchequer]

However, I don't think the Avs win the Cup without Makar though who was picked at #4.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Their bottom is nowhere near the bottom of Arizona, Chicago (after they trade Kane, Debrincat, and Strome), Seattle, or Montreal.

Is it though? We were wildly inconsistent against Arizona and they will probably improve. We were lucky to get the points we did against Chicago when they outplayed us two of the three times but at least here post fire sale may put them below us. Seattle clowned the Sharks three out of four times and will probably improve. They were pretty much equal to Montreal but it was early in the season and with the changes Montreal is making and probably will make moving forward, they probably won't be as bad as they were this season. They already got better next season changing coaches and acquiring Dadonov for Weber. The Sharks are above this level currently because of goaltending mostly in the first half of the season. Goaltending is something you can never truly rely upon, imo.

Of course this depends on what kind of movement this team is going to do but it's hard to have much confidence in them given the vacancy and lack of cap space. Reimer tends to follow up a solid season with a worse one. If that happens and Karlsson gets hurt like he tends to do, we're absolutely having a worse season than this one. If they have a second major injury to any of Burns, Couture, Hertl, or Meier and they are fighting for that top draft pick with the likes of Chicago or Arizona or anyone else you're putting in this category.