Prospect Info: 2022 Post-Deadline Devils-Centric Mock Draft 2.0 (thru NJ 2nd round)

[Devs3cups]

First tie breaker is regulation wins. The Flyers have 20 and we have 19.

Thanks, I for SURE thought it was W’s.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I'd disagree that Savoie wouldn't be a good fit on the Devils, His Offensive IQ and ability to play off puck are both high end and he's not afraid to get into the dirty areas and make plays in close. I actually think he'd be a great fit to play alongside Hughes or Bratt since he has the skating to keep pace and the hockey sense to find the open areas. As much as the Devils offense has improved this season we're still only average at best relative to the rest of the league. Having another potential star forward that is a dual threat in terms of shooting and passing would certainly not be a bad option if we miss out on the top 2 defenders and Slafkovsky.

In my prospect profiles, I sometimes try to differentiate what it means to be an interior forward and what it means to not be afraid of the dirty areas -- so I'm glad you brought this up.

Jesper Bratt and Jack Hughes are clearly not afraid of the dirty areas, and that's part of what makes them star-quality talents. But there is a clear demarcation between that and a player who does his best work on the interior. Hughes and Bratt -- courageous and effective as they are -- do their best work along the perimeter, creating lanes and holes in the defense and offensive opportunities. They actually benefit from a true interior forward, who does his best work winning puck battles down low, screening goalies, getting deflections and banging home rebounds.

We can actually further define this with the ostensible top unit for the US-NTDP this year, Cooley centering Nazar and Gauthier. Cooley -- though he's also a courageous player -- does his best work on the perimeter, playing a style I'd say is not entirely dissimilar from a Jack Hughes. Gauthier is a true interior forward -- he's not a puck carrier. His job is to win pucks down low, get it to someone more skilled, then crash the crease. As a pass-receiving option, Gauthier is more catch-and-release, and with his sick shot he's very effective there. His physicality creates a ton of room for his two sub-6'0 linemates. I'd say Nazar is a "hybrid" of the two. For a smaller-than-average F he's as good on the interior as they come, but he can also drive a line and create opportunities in myriad fashions all over the offensive zone.

So, back to Savoie. If we're going to compare him to any of these guys, it's clearly Cooley. And Cooley has equivalent skill to Savoie but far better skating, which is why I have Cooley ahead of Savoie in my rankings. Essentially, what I'm saying is that Savoie would be a great consideration for the Devils if they were drafting at #9 or #10 overall. But at #5 or #6? Even if NJ misses out on the trio of Jiricek/Nemec/Slafkovsky, this means they'll likely be staring at a Nazar, Cooley, Gauthier or Yurov. I just can't see how it would behoove NJ to take Savoie over any of those four players.

So, let's say NJ falls to 6, and we have a very realistic top 5 picks of Wright, Slafkovsky, Cooley, Jiricek and Nemec. Personally, I'm taking Nazar, here. This would enable NJ to theoretically swing Mercer down to 3C and ice a future top 6 of Sharangovich-Hughes-Nazar and Bratt-Hischier-Holtz, which if you ask me, is freaking sick. My second choice would be Yurov, but if I was a scout I'd understand my GM being reluctant to draft a Russian so high this year. I'd also recommend a trade-down scenario if one were available, because the players who make most sense for NJ need-wise would be Gauthier or Chesley, one of whom will likely be available in the #9-#12 range.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Chicago won and Philly lost. Likely we finish where we are in 5th last where our most likely pick is 6th.

To pass Chicago we would have to win our last two games while they lose their last game in regulation. That’s possible.

Philly passing us is probably slightly more likely but probably not gonna happen. Philly would have to win their last game against Ottawa and we would have to lose our final two against Carolina and Detroit.

Fingers crossed.

In the #5 slot, I'd give the Devils a nice 75% shot on getting Jiricek or Nemec, since Wright and Slafkovsky will take up two of the top 3 picks. It depends on whether one of the other teams -- likely Seattle -- decides to go with a F (likely Cooley).

In the #6 slot? Well unfortunately this drops precipitously. NJ would literally need a team to reach a bit for a Kemell or Lambert or Savoie or Geekie to get one of Jiricek/Nemec, and that's way too much finger-crossing for anyone's liking, I'm certain.

If the Devils could just pass the Flyers, everything is rosy. Because the Flyers have the same desperation at RD as we do, and believe me -- we do not want David Jiricek on one of our fiercest rivals.

 

[My3Sons]

Fingers crossed.

In the #5 slot, I'd give the Devils a nice 75% shot on getting Jiricek or Nemec, since Wright and Slafkovsky will take up two of the top 3 picks. It depends on whether one of the other teams -- likely Seattle -- decides to go with a F (likely Cooley).

In the #6 slot? Well unfortunately this drops precipitously. NJ would literally need a team to reach a bit for a Kemell or Lambert or Savoie or Geekie to get one of Jiricek/Nemec, and that's way too much finger-crossing for anyone's liking, I'm certain.

If the Devils could just pass the Flyers, everything is rosy. Because the Flyers have the same desperation at RD as we do, and believe me -- we do not want David Jiricek on one of our fiercest rivals.

A quick look at the cap friendly page for PHI suggests to me that team needs just about everything with the possible exception of LD. They have some good young prospects of course, but no one that you screams future NHL top line/top pair/number one goalie to me. They also have Risto and Ellis at RD signed forever. I see them a bit more as a wildcard similar to SEA. Plus, they are PHI. I won't be surprised if they pick that Wilsonesqe prospect you mentioned yesterday.

 

[StevenToddIves]

A quick look at the cap friendly page for PHI suggests to me that team needs just about everything with the possible exception of LD. They have some good young prospects of course, but no one that you screams future NHL top line/top pair/number one goalie to me. They also have Risto and Ellis at RD signed forever. I see them a bit more as a wildcard similar to SEA. Plus, they are PHI. I won't be surprised if they pick that Wilsonesqe prospect you mentioned yesterday.

Well, here's my assessment of Philly on draft day.

They've spent their last two top picks on RW (Foerster and Tuomaala) and have a good young guy in Konecny, plus Atkinson signed another three years. They also have another top prospect in Brink and traded for Tippett at the deadline in the Giroux deal with Florida. In their top 10 prospects are two more RWs in Wisdom and O'Brien. So, I think we can say it's a virtual impossibility they use a third straight top pick at the position, ruling out Nazar, Kemell and Lambert -- all of whom are probably a bit below the consensus top 5, anyway.

At LW, I'd say their best young player is Joel Farabee, though they are extremely thin beyond him. This makes me think they would gladly take Slafkovsky at #2 overall if they found themselves there, but Slaf is likely gone by #2 and certainly by #3 overall. But I'd also rule out a mini-reach for Yurov or Gauthier here.

There are no LD who could reasonably be considered for the top 7 picks, and besides this is the one area besides RW where the Flyers are strong. So, cross this one out too.

That leaves C and RD.

At center, the Flyers have Couturier and Hayes signed pretty much forever, but a few years into that deal Couts will be better served as a 2C and Hayes as a 3C, so a pivot certainly would make sense. In the prospect pool they have one legit prospect in Elliot Desnoyers, who is probably a 3C prospect with the upside of 2C and downside of 4C. I like him a lot, but wouldn't call him a blue-chipper. So Cooley will definitely be on their wish-list, and it's not impossible they would reach from the top 5 for a Geekie or Savoie.

At RD they have -- woefully -- signed both Ristolainen and Ellis to long-term deals which were pretty much immovable before the ink dried. They have one reasonable prospect in Ronnie Attard, but little else. I truly feel Jiricek is very much the type of player their current front office loves, and they would have to know that passing on Jiricek at #4 would mean playing against him in a Devils jersey for the next decade.

So, here's what I'll say. If the Flyers draft #1, they take Wright.
At #2, Philly takes Slafkovsky.
At #3, Philly takes Slafkovsky (if available), and if not they take Cooley or Jiricek.
At #4, Philly takes Cooley or Jiricek.
At #5, we NJ fans no longer need to care as much, because it means we'll be picking one slot ahead of them.

The best case scenario, of course, is that the Flyers win tomorrow and the Devils lose in regulation, which would lock NJ at #4 and Philly at #5. The worst case scenario is the Devils finish at #5, then drop down to #6 or #7 after the lottery, which would seriously diminish the chances of getting Jiricek or Nemec.

 

[nugg]

Well, here's my assessment of Philly on draft day.

They've spent their last two top picks on RW (Foerster and Tuomaala) and have a good young guy in Konecny, plus Atkinson signed another three years. They also have another top prospect in Brink and traded for Tippett at the deadline in the Giroux deal with Florida. In their top 10 prospects are two more RWs in Wisdom and O'Brien. So, I think we can say it's a virtual impossibility they use a third straight top pick at the position, ruling out Nazar, Kemell and Lambert -- all of whom are probably a bit below the consensus top 5, anyway.

At LW, I'd say their best young player is Joel Farabee, though they are extremely thin beyond him. This makes me think they would gladly take Slafkovsky at #2 overall if they found themselves there, but Slaf is likely gone by #2 and certainly by #3 overall. But I'd also rule out a mini-reach for Yurov or Gauthier here.

There are no LD who could reasonably be considered for the top 7 picks, and besides this is the one area besides RW where the Flyers are strong. So, cross this one out too.

That leaves C and RD.

At center, the Flyers have Couturier and Hayes signed pretty much forever, but a few years into that deal Couts will be better served as a 2C and Hayes as a 3C, so a pivot certainly would make sense. In the prospect pool they have one legit prospect in Elliot Desnoyers, who is probably a 3C prospect with the upside of 2C and downside of 4C. I like him a lot, but wouldn't call him a blue-chipper. So Cooley will definitely be on their wish-list, and it's not impossible they would reach from the top 5 for a Geekie or Savoie.

At RD they have -- woefully -- signed both Ristolainen and Ellis to long-term deals which were pretty much immovable before the ink dried. They have one reasonable prospect in Ronnie Attard, but little else. I truly feel Jiricek is very much the type of player their current front office loves, and they would have to know that passing on Jiricek at #4 would mean playing against him in a Devils jersey for the next decade.

So, here's what I'll say. If the Flyers draft #1, they take Wright.
At #2, Philly takes Slafkovsky.
At #3, Philly takes Slafkovsky (if available), and if not they take Cooley or Jiricek.
At #4, Philly takes Cooley or Jiricek.
At #5, we NJ fans no longer need to care as much, because it means we'll be picking one slot ahead of them.

The best case scenario, of course, is that the Flyers win tomorrow and the Devils lose in regulation, which would lock NJ at #4 and Philly at #5. The worst case scenario is the Devils finish at #5, then drop down to #6 or #7 after the lottery, which would seriously diminish the chances of getting Jiricek or Nemec.

They are due for a 1st pick win. Last and only time they've ever picked first was in 75, with Mel Bridgeman, and that due to a trade with the Caps. Obviously the odds are against them.

In all likely-hood, we will be picking 1, 2, 5, 6, or 7th. If Philly wins and we lose, 1, 2, 4, 5, or 6th. (Just like last year).

 

[StevenToddIves]

Huge night tonight for the Devils draft hopes. We need to root for a Devils regulation loss against Detroit and a Flyers win versus Ottawa, which would set the final draft order at:

1 Montreal
2 Arizona
3 Seattle
4 Devils
5 Philadelphia

If the Devils get a point or if Philly loses, the Devils finish at #5 and the Flyers at #4.

The #4 slot would make the Devils most likely draft position at #5, which would give them a very strong chance at RDs Jiricek or Nemec. The second most likely draft position would be #4, which would give them a guarantee of one of the RDs, because Wright and Slafkovsky are near-certainties for the top 3. Falling to #6 would be a remote chance, which would make it a bit of a nail-biter -- important to consider because, if the Devils finish in the #5 slot, the #6 pick is their most likely outcome.

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

Best case scenario is NJ to win the lottery and Arizona to pick 3rd or 4th overall.

We flip picks with Arizona and pick up an additional late 1st round pick either Carolina or Colorado's first that is currently owned by Arizona for flipping picks. At the same we give Arizona both Tatar and Johnsson's expiring contract, which allows NJ to open a full time slot next season for Zetterlund and roster flexibility to chase an UFA roster forward.

End result, Arizona get Wright, Tatar, Johnsson.
NJ gets one of Jiricek or Nemec and a late 1st.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Best case scenario is NJ to win the lottery and Arizona to pick 3rd or 4th overall.

We flip picks with Arizona and pick up an additional late 1st round pick either Carolina or Colorado's first that is currently owned by Arizona for flipping picks. At the same we give Arizona both Tatar and Johnsson's expiring contract, which allows NJ to open a full time slot next season for Zetterlund and roster flexibility to chase an UFA roster forward.

End result, Arizona get Wright, Tatar, Johnsson.
NJ gets one of Jiricek or Nemec and a late 1st.

I’d rather get Slafkovsky.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Devils lose. Flyers just tied their game up. If they can get two points they finish above us.

 

[Devs3cups]

Tkachuk scores. 3-2 OTT. f*** this season

 

[StevenToddIves]

Haha Flyers. Ugh.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Well we officially finish in the 5th spot.
Most likely pick is 6th (44.2%)
17.3% chance of picking top 2.
41.8% chance of picking top 5

We’ll see what happens in a week and a half

 

[goonybird]

One Shane Wright, please.

 

[Nocashstyle]

Well we officially finish in the 5th spot.
Most likely pick is 6th (44.2%)
17.3% chance of picking top 2.
41.8% chance of picking top 5

We’ll see what happens in a week and a half

New rules say teams can’t fall back more than one spot? I know only the top 2 picks are up for lottery now and teams can’t jump further than 10 spots, but I assumed that two teams could jump the Devils.

 

[markog]

New rules say teams can’t fall back more than one spot? I know only the top 2 picks are up for lottery now and teams can’t jump further than 10 spots, but I assumed that two teams could jump the Devils.

Of course you can go back 2 spots, in case in New Jersey everyone can jump them, only Vegas can pick at best in 6. position.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

New rules say teams can’t fall back more than one spot? I know only the top 2 picks are up for lottery now and teams can’t jump further than 10 spots, but I assumed that two teams could jump the Devils.

No you can still go back two spots. 13.9% chance of picking 7th

 

[StevenToddIves]

View attachment 538263

One Shane Wright, please.

If the Devils win the lottery, they probably trade down.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I'm not going to put up another detailed mock draft until the lottery, but this would be my guess for a mini-mock with the current order of things:

1 MTL Wright
2 ARI Cooley
3 SEA Slafkovsky
4 PHI Jiricek
5 NJ Nemec
6 CLB Geekie
7 OTT Lambert
8 DET Nazar
9 BUF Savoie
10 ANH Kemell

 

[My3Sons]

Kemell has rocket one timer. I think it’s a bit better than Holtz because he can make small adjustments to get the shot away with full power consistently. He can also get it on net.

 

[Hisch13r]

Looks like Seattle will pass Philly. I'm hoping for an Arizona/Philly 1-2. Keeps us at 5 and I think Montreal could go Slaf and Seattle Nemec

 

[Lou Bloom]

It'll be very interesting to see what happens with the movement at the top of this draft class as we get closer to the draft. I'm starting to be skeptical about the idea of Wright as a top 5 pick in this class let alone a slam dunk 1st overall pick. There's some good traits here but the lack of assertiveness and playmaking even at the OHL level is very worrying. I can't help but to wonder if he's just someone who matured and filled out faster than his peers like a Alexis Lafreniere (and I think Lafreniere was much more impressive in his draft season) and if he's lacking in terms of untapped potential.

 

[Guttersniped]

It'll be very interesting to see what happens with the movement at the top of this draft class as we get closer to the draft. I'm starting to be skeptical about the idea of Wright as a top 5 pick in this class let alone a slam dunk 1st overall pick. There's some good traits here but the lack of assertiveness and playmaking even at the OHL level is very worrying. I can't help but to wonder if he's just someone who matured and filled out faster than his peers like a Alexis Lafreniere (and I think Lafreniere was much more impressive in his draft season) and if he's lacking in terms of untapped potential.

You’re skeptical of Wright getting taken in the top 5? Ok, wacky stuff can happen but that I don’t see that as possible.

Nolan Patrick played 33 games and still got taken 2nd, his draft stock as a potential 1C isn’t going to lose that much value. Not sure who the five players are that could all take him down.

It’s not like European wingers from Liiga have been slam dunks with production (Kakko, Puljujärvi), so Slafkovsky, or Kemell, might feel like less safe picks.

Defensemen are traditionally less safe picks and both top RD play in lesser men’s leagues that teams don’t draft a lot out of, therefore it’s tough to gauge their production.

Cooley did do well in the U18 tournament, but he didn’t blow the doors off of it. It felt like it did more to raise the stock of players who were getting overshadowed (Howard, McGroaty, Chesley) rather than push Cooley to 1OA.

The Djurgardens trio lit it up, particularly on the PP, but they won’t go up that much further.

Another CHL player passing him? Geekie isn’t lighting it up in the playoffs either (just going by scoreboard watching with that).

I’ve heard the same argument from others that about him being a physically mature player. Saying he’ll be a disappointing pick is different than saying he’ll fall out of the top 5 though.

He’s a two-way center with a great shot and good size, I don’t see such a meat and potatoes pick falling out of fashion because he hasn’t set the world on fire. (Especially with the current challengers.) Kirby Dach had worse numbers but got picked 3OA because he was a couple inches taller (I being unfair to Dach here, because he seemed to have more skill than his numbers had shown, but being a tall C was a huge plus too).

Top centers are simply too valuable and to critical a position for Wright not to sell high, like Beniers last year.

 

[Lou Bloom]

You’re skeptical of Wright getting taken in the top 5? Ok, wacky stuff can happen but that I don’t see that as possible.

Nolan Patrick played 33 games and still got taken 2nd, his draft stock as a potential 1C isn’t going to lose that much value. Not sure who the five players are that could all take him down.

It’s not like European wingers from Liiga have been slam dunks with production (Kakko, Puljujärvi), so Slafkovsky, or Kemell, might feel like less safe picks.

Defensemen are traditionally less safe picks and both top RD play in lesser men’s leagues that teams don’t draft a lot out of, therefore it’s tough to gauge their production.

Cooley did do well in the U18 tournament, but he didn’t blow the doors off of it. It felt like it did more to raise the stock of players who were getting overshadowed (Howard, McGroaty, Chesley) rather than push Cooley to 1OA.

The Djurgardens trio lit it up, particularly on the PP, but they won’t go up that much further.

Another CHL player passing him? Geekie isn’t lighting it up in the playoffs either (just going by scoreboard watching with that).

I’ve heard the same argument from others that about him being a physically mature player. Saying he’ll be a disappointing pick is different than saying he’ll fall out of the top 5 though.

He’s a two-way center with a great shot and good size, I don’t see such a meat and potatoes pick falling out of fashion because he hasn’t set the world on fire. (Especially with the current challengers.) Kirby Dach had worse numbers but got picked 3OA because he was a couple inches taller (I being unfair to Dach here, because he seemed to have more skill than his numbers had shown, but being a tall C was a huge plus too).

Top centers are simply too valuable and to critical a position for Wright not to sell high, like Beniers last year.

No, I'm skeptical that he's a top 5 prospect in this class (bad wording on my part), there's little doubt that he'll go top 5 in the actual draft and more likely than not be the #1 pick. The only players that can actually threaten him for the #1 slot are Cooley and possibly Slafkovsky but even then that's probably not likely too happen.

My point is more that I don't see how Wright has separated himself from the top of this class considering his production and skillset aren't anything special and I'd argue multiple prospects towards the top have him beat in at least one of those areas. The only reason people seem to have him as a #1 lock is due to his pedigree he built up in prior seasons.

I'd comfortably rank Jiricek, Slafkovsky, Cooley and Nemec ahead of him and I'd consider guys like Savoie, Lambert, Nazar, Lekkerimaki and Kemell as well.

 

[Xirik]

Any thoughts on Artyom Barabosha? Maybe I have a type but a stay at home RD that looks for hits and can pass sound pretty awesome to me.

(Not So Serious)
I also hope we draft
Michael Mastrodomenico, Boston Buckberger, and Brady Stonehouse just for their names alone.

Wait.. Boston has a twin! we need the Buckberger twins! and they have a little brother that is draft eligble in 2024!