Prospect Info: 2022 Post-Deadline Devils-Centric Mock Draft 2.0 (thru NJ 2nd round)

[Nocashstyle]

I fully understand any Devils fans wanting Jiricek or Nemec to be the NJ top choice -- they both have the potential to be star two-way 1D at the NHL level. But it would be difficult for me to understand wanting any other forward over Slafkovsky. He's pretty much precisely the type of player the Devils need in the top 6, and his upside would be higher than any player in the Devils top 6 save for Jack Hughes.

Numbers for a draft-eligible prospect are what they are. Last year they were used as an argument against Owen Power at #1, and in a redraft he still goes #1. In 2020 the numbers were used to argue against Lucas Raymond and Jake Sanderson at #4/#5, and now they both look like outstanding picks. In 2019, stats arguments were made against Moritz Seider as a 1st round pick, and in a redraft he goes #2 overall after only Jack Hughes. In 2018 stats arguments went against Brady Tkachuk and in 2017 Martin Necas.

The numbers absolutely must be taken into context and weighed in tandem with traditional scouting tools, otherwise you're going to be a pretty poor drafting team. With Slafkovsky, you have an elite passer with elite hands who is nearly unstoppable down low and can play keepaway with the puck against defensemen a decade older. It's not that I'm a "fan" of Slafkovsky, it's that his upside is stratospheric and he'll enter the draft as a consensus top 3 pick. We can say I'm a "fan" of players I'm lauding for the 4th round, sure, but I don't think anyone with half a brain is ranking Slafkovsky outside their top 10.

We can split Slafkovsky's stats into 4 sections this year:

1) Start of year, Finnish Jr: Slafkovsky looked like a threat to break every draft-eligible scoring mark for the league with 18 points in 11 games.

2) Called up to Finnish Liiga: used at a bottom 6 winger and playing for the first time against grown men in a country where he didn't speak the language, Slafkovsky struggled mightily to hit the scoresheet

3) Olympics: Slafkovsky tore up the tournament and deservedly won MVP as best player.

4) End of Finnish season: Slafkovsky was utilized in a middle 6 role from the Olympics on, doubling his point totals in half the games. In the playoffs, he notched 7 points, not eye-popping but still the 3rd-highest total for a draft-eligible in the past two decades.

So, if we're going to use a numbers argument against Juraj Slafkovsky, here's the argument: though he dominated thoroughly in 2 of the 3 major events in which he played, we should not draft him because he did not produce at the highest level in which he played until he was promoted from the bottom 6 into a more consistent scoring line role.

Like him or not, Slafkovsky seems to be a pretty great bet for being picked in the top 3, so for Devils fans it's unlikely to matter anyway unless they win the #2 overall slot at the lottery. The question we need to ask is: how many points would Slafkovsky had scored if he was playing in the QMJHL? And if you watched him in the Olympics or Finnish Juniors or Liiga playoffs as I did, the next question would be if he would have been just above or below the 100-point plateau.

Unfortunately, the context does not allow an air-tight resolution to this statistical conundrum, so we are forced to hypothesize where he is now and where is abilities could allow him to progress and, in essence, that's why we rank prospects in the first place, and why good-drafting teams routinely do it exceptionally.


Well, the Devils did get the most talented #1 overall pick between Matthews and Berard with Jack Hughes, so it's tough to complain.

I get what you’re saying, and yes, every draft pick is based on projections and comes with risk. But just as you mentioned, Nemec is really just my preference at this point.

 

[Hisch13r]

Most insane thing about this has to be Nazar at 21 among NA skaters

 

[Tao Jersey Jones]

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Wow they don’t even have Nazar in the top 20 North American prospects.

He’s #21. So basically that means they see him as a late first, early second guy.
That seems very unlikely.

 

[Nocashstyle]

Most insane thing about this has to be Nazar at 21 among NA skaters

Kemell above Nemec and Jiricek too?

 

[Tao Jersey Jones]

Final NHL rank for Goalies is out.

Everett's Braden Holt dropped after having a horrendous opening round loss. Prince George's backup Ty Young rose as did Swift Current's Reid Dyck.

2022 Draft Prospect Rankings

2022 Draft Prospect Rankings

www.nhl.com

5'10" Hugo Havelid up from 9 to 2 for the Europeans.

2022 Draft Prospect Rankings

2022 Draft Prospect Rankings

www.nhl.com

 

[StevenToddIves]

I get what you’re saying, and yes, every draft pick is based on projections and comes with risk. But just as you mentioned, Nemec is really just my preference at this point.

Nemec over Slafkovsky is a fair pick. Same would go for Jiricek over Slafkovsky. But I can't see the Devils preferring any forward over Slafkovsky.

The way I see it, there is virtually no chance NJ drafts Slafkovsky, so it's not an issue. Here are our possible draft positions in reference to Slafkovsky:

7: Slafkovsky is gone
6: Slafkovsky is gone
5: Slafkovsky is gone
2: Devils decide between Slafkovsky, Nemec and Jiricek
1: Devils trade down

So, essentially, there's a less than 10% chance the Devils find themselves in a slot where it's even a decision. So, if Slafkovsky's not your guy, there's not much to worry about. For me, I just don't want him on a division rival, because his upside is as an absolutely unstoppable force down low. I'd love to see him in Seattle or Montreal. But if Philly wins that #2 pick, I'm going to be unhappy.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Nemec over Slafkovsky is a fair pick. Same would go for Jiricek over Slafkovsky. But I can't see the Devils preferring any forward over Slafkovsky.

The way I see it, there is virtually no chance NJ drafts Slafkovsky, so it's not an issue. Here are our possible draft positions in reference to Slafkovsky:

7: Slafkovsky is gone
6: Slafkovsky is gone
5: Slafkovsky is gone
2: Devils decide between Slafkovsky, Nemec and Jiricek
1: Devils trade down

So, essentially, there's a less than 10% chance the Devils find themselves in a slot where it's even a decision. So, if Slafkovsky's not your guy, there's not much to worry about. For me, I just don't want him on a division rival, because his upside is as an absolutely unstoppable force down low. I'd love to see him in Seattle or Montreal. But if Philly wins that #2 pick, I'm going to be unhappy.

I wouldn’t assume the devils trade down at 1. It’s very rare and unlikely to happen. It’s actually more likely that they would take Slafkovsky there. It might be more possible than other years but it’s still not that likely.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Most insane thing about this has to be Nazar at 21 among NA skaters

I know, right? I read the top 20 three times thinking I missed Nazar's name.

The CSB is very "old boy network" and pretty bad in their rankings, year in and year out. I'd say they're not quite "Bader-Weak", but they're routinely obsessed with "big & fast" and seem to drop the ball on multiple prospects every year.

Wow they don’t even have Nazar in the top 20 North American prospects.

He’s #21. So basically that means they see him as a late first, early second guy.
That seems very unlikely.

Kemell above Nemec and Jiricek too?

It's just a bad list, guys. Nothing else to really say about it.

Fortunately for you guys, my list is far batter.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I wouldn’t assume the devils trade down at 1. It’s very rare and unlikely to happen. It’s actually more likely that they would take Slafkovsky there. It might be more possible than other years but it’s still not that likely.

We should look at the reason it's rare, not simply the fact that it is. And the reason is teams drafting #1 overall routinely desperately need a player like the #1 overall prospect in the draft.

The Devils do not need a Shane Wright. They have other needs which can be found further down the draft. This is why the trade-down scenario works.

Arizona would be desperate for a player like Shane Wright. They have three first round picks. Why would the Devils not trade down to #3, still get a player they want/need in Jiricek/Nemec/Slafkovsky and add another pick? Because they would likely take one of those three in the #1 overall slot, anyway.

 

[Nubmer6]

We should look at the reason it's rare, not simply the fact that it is. And the reason is teams drafting #1 overall routinely desperately need a player like the #1 overall prospect in the draft.

The Devils do not need a Shane Wright. They have other needs which can be found further down the draft. This is why the trade-down scenario works.

Arizona would be desperate for a player like Shane Wright. They have three first round picks. Why would the Devils not trade down to #3, still get a player they want/need in Jiricek/Nemec/Slafkovsky and add another pick? Because they would likely take one of those three in the #1 overall slot, anyway.

I'm all about Ryan Chesley. If we win the lottery, I'd easily take Arizona's first and second 1st rounders, grab one of Jiricek/Nemic/Slafkovsky, and have a shot at Chelsey or even Miroshnichenko with the later pick. Hell, since 1OA is viewed as so valuable, we might even be able to get their third 1st rounder if we throw in our 2nd. I mean... they have 6 picks between #30 and #45. It's just crazy. I just can't imagine Arizona keeping them all.

 

[Eggtimer]

We should look at the reason it's rare, not simply the fact that it is. And the reason is teams drafting #1 overall routinely desperately need a player like the #1 overall prospect in the draft.

The Devils do not need a Shane Wright. They have other needs which can be found further down the draft. This is why the trade-down scenario works.

Arizona would be desperate for a player like Shane Wright. They have three first round picks. Why would the Devils not trade down to #3, still get a player they want/need in Jiricek/Nemec/Slafkovsky and add another pick? Because they would likely take one of those three in the #1 overall slot, anyway.

Yes it’s pretty damn rare that a team crappy enough to pick #1 is in a position where they do not habe any real need for a certain position that happens to be the consensus #1 pick

 

[Brodeur]

Probably the closest situation was Pittsburgh in 2006 when they had the #2 pick. Ray Shero had just been hired as GM and he considered trading the pick to Carolina for an unsigned Jack Johnson. That was at the height of Johnson's hype train and I was surprised when they chose not to do it, but they maybe saw the holes in his game.

Some thought Colorado might consider dealing the top pick in 2013 since they already had Duchene/O'Reilly who were 22. I remember some were touting Duchene/Landeskog/Seth Jones as this generation's Sakic/Forsberg/Foote core.

At least it's only a few more days until the lottery, then I can get over that mental hurdle and start doing mock drafts.

 

[Guttersniped]

Final NHL rank for Goalies is out.

Everett's Braden Holt dropped after having a horrendous opening round loss. Prince George's backup Ty Young rose as did Swift Current's Reid Dyck.

2022 Draft Prospect Rankings

2022 Draft Prospect Rankings

www.nhl.com

5'10" Hugo Havelid up from 9 to 2 for the Europeans.

2022 Draft Prospect Rankings

2022 Draft Prospect Rankings

www.nhl.com

I used my very expert goal scouting skillz, which pay big a$$ bills, I read up on Cameron Whitehead and he sounds promising.

He’s going to Northeastern University, which is where 2021-22 Mike Richter Award winner Devin Levi (Soph) and 2018-19 winner Cayden Primeau (Soph) went. That’s the only school with two winners, the award has been given out 9 times since 2014.

After drafting Brady and having him struggle on a not goalie friendly team I like the idea of drafting a prospect from a program with stronger track record with goalies.

 

[HughJazz3dg]

I know, right? I read the top 20 three times thinking I missed Nazar's name.

The CSB is very "old boy network" and pretty bad in their rankings, year in and year out. I'd say they're not quite "Bader-Weak", but they're routinely obsessed with "big & fast" and seem to drop the ball on multiple prospects every year.



It's just a bad list, guys. Nothing else to really say about it.

Fortunately for you guys, my list is far batter.

I am not even going to remotely pretend I understand more about these kids than you do, because I really don’t. But is there no argument for Kemell being higher than Nemec and Jiricek? Steve Kournianous has been doing nothing but pumping his tires on his podcast, and I believe has him ranked #2. Is it considered silly in your eyes because of the injury he faced, or the importance of position (D>RW)? Or do you feel there’s a lack of upside?

I’m not challenging you in any way, I just know you have a lot of respect for Steve’s work.

 

[youryeah]

was looking at the top 20 list and saw a guy named jimmy snuggerud. I want him just because of his name I think

 

[StevenToddIves]

I'm all about Ryan Chesley. If we win the lottery, I'd easily take Arizona's first and second 1st rounders, grab one of Jiricek/Nemic/Slafkovsky, and have a shot at Chelsey or even Miroshnichenko with the later pick. Hell, since 1OA is viewed as so valuable, we might even be able to get their third 1st rounder if we throw in our 2nd. I mean... they have 6 picks between #30 and #45. It's just crazy. I just can't imagine Arizona keeping them all.

Arizona has needs all over the place after years of bad management, so a ton of picks makes sense. However, their #1 need is high end talent, so trading up makes sense, too.

Chesley will not be available past #20, and probably not past #15 overall. We can ignore the draft analysts who go stat heavy, because we know for a fact (via perennial precedent) that physical D are valued more by NHL front offices, and RD are valued more by NHL front offices.

Miroshnichenko is another matter -- he could potentially fall. However, I'm I'm a team with multiple first round picks like Buffalo, Montreal or Anaheim, I would definitely grab him later in the 1st round.

And again yes -- if the Devils win the lottery, they should trade down.

 

[Nubmer6]

Chesley will not be available past #20, and probably not past #15 overall. We can ignore the draft analysts who go stat heavy, because we know for a fact (via perennial precedent) that physical D are valued more by NHL front offices, and RD are valued more by NHL front offices.

Yes, however we don't know where Arizona's lower 1st rounders are going to land. 30 and 31 count on Carolina and Colorado getting into the semi-finals and finals, which is certainly possible... maybe even probable... but not a given.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I am not even going to remotely pretend I understand more about these kids than you do, because I really don’t. But is there no argument for Kemell being higher than Nemec and Jiricek? Steve Kournianous has been doing nothing but pumping his tires on his podcast, and I believe has him ranked #2. Is it considered silly in your eyes because of the injury he faced, or the importance of position (D>RW)? Or do you feel there’s a lack of upside?

I’m not challenging you in any way, I just know you have a lot of respect for Steve’s work.

I love Kemell. But to me, he's very comparable to Holtz two years ago, who I had ranked just outside the top 10. Like Holtz, Kemell is a pure finisher who also possesses a very good (and underrated) complete game, along with excellent intangibles. But he's not a line driver, and he's a wing which, in my mind, are not nearly as valuable as a potential first-pairing two-way defender.

So, I respectfully disagree with Mr. Kournianos, and largely because of reasons you stated (D>RW) but also because I'm probably a bit higher on Nemec and Jiricek than Steve is.

To me, Kemell and Holtz will be peak as perennial 30+ goal scorers with maybe a few 40+ goal seasons, which is just an outstanding luxury to have. But Jiricek and Nemec both have the ability to blossom into stud, two-way, all-situations defenders -- and these are increasingly rare and you can't win a cup without a top-notch blueline in today's NHL.

P.S.
Never worry about challenging me -- I'm not much of an egotist, and I feel that if I don't explain my positions on prospects to someone's liking, I owe them a more in-depth explanation. So, if you disagree with me or my takes on prospects or players, fire away with the disagreements and I'll be glad to explain my takes.

was looking at the top 20 list and saw a guy named jimmy snuggerud. I want him just because of his name I think

Snuggerud is not quite a top 20 pick, but he's a heck of a player and should see his name called in the later 1st round. He's a big kid who skates well, offers very good (if not elite) skills and plays a power game down low. I'd also say Snuggerud is one of the better defensive wingers in the 2022 class. He's a heck of a player.

 

[My3Sons]

I love Kemell. But to me, he's very comparable to Holtz two years ago, who I had ranked just outside the top 10. Like Holtz, Kemell is a pure finisher who also possesses a very good (and underrated) complete game, along with excellent intangibles. But he's not a line driver, and he's a wing which, in my mind, are not nearly as valuable as a potential first-pairing two-way defender.

So, I respectfully disagree with Mr. Kournianos, and largely because of reasons you stated (D>RW) but also because I'm probably a bit higher on Nemec and Jiricek than Steve is.

To me, Kemell and Holtz will be peak as perennial 30+ goal scorers with maybe a few 40+ goal seasons, which is just an outstanding luxury to have. But Jiricek and Nemec both have the ability to blossom into stud, two-way, all-situations defenders -- and these are increasingly rare and you can't win a cup without a top-notch blueline in today's NHL.

P.S.
Never worry about challenging me -- I'm not much of an egotist, and I feel that if I don't explain my positions on prospects to someone's liking, I owe them a more in-depth explanation. So, if you disagree with me or my takes on prospects or players, fire away with the disagreements and I'll be glad to explain my takes.


Snuggerud is not quite a top 20 pick, but he's a heck of a player and should see his name called in the later 1st round. He's a big kid who skates well, offers very good (if not elite) skills and plays a power game down low. I'd also say Snuggerud is one of the better defensive wingers in the 2022 class. He's a heck of a player.

Change of topic but Fitz says RD don’t grow on trees when talking about Subban but then his big concession to that in the draft is Hurtig? He needs to listen to himself

 

[Guttersniped]

was looking at the top 20 list and saw a guy named jimmy snuggerud. I want him just because of his name I think

 

[Nubmer6]

Great. Another soft player

 

[StevenToddIves]

Change of topic but Fitz says RD don’t grow on trees when talking about Subban but then his big concession to that in the draft is Hurtig? He needs to listen to himself

I've been very hopeful that Fitzgerald has learned from his mistakes of the past two drafts -- it's the #1 area he needs to improve upon in order to fulfill his potential as a great NHL general manager.

 

[Guttersniped]

Change of topic but Fitz says RD don’t grow on trees when talking about Subban but then his big concession to that in the draft is Hurtig? He needs to listen to himself

Maybe Fitz definitely knows RHD don’t grow on trees, because they’re human being, but only occasionally remembers we can draft them.

Even more than one in a single draft! It’s true, they will let you do that! (We just haven’t done it since 2014.)

 

[JrFischer54]

We should look at the reason it's rare, not simply the fact that it is. And the reason is teams drafting #1 overall routinely desperately need a player like the #1 overall prospect in the draft.

The Devils do not need a Shane Wright. They have other needs which can be found further down the draft. This is why the trade-down scenario works.

Arizona would be desperate for a player like Shane Wright. They have three first round picks. Why would the Devils not trade down to #3, still get a player they want/need in Jiricek/Nemec/Slafkovsky and add another pick? Because they would likely take one of those three in the #1 overall slot, anyway.

dont even trade down just trade the pick completely even more so if you land the 1 pick. the one thing this team doesn't need is more youth and potential and growing years. they need legit nhl talent use that pick to get it whatever position it is. gump said it best "thats all I have to say about that"