Prospect Info: 2022 Post-Deadline Devils-Centric Mock Draft 2.0 (thru NJ 2nd round)

[StevenToddIves]

Shame there's no clear-cut stud goalie ala Askarov. I'd legitimately entertain taking one with a top-10 pick.

I'm intrigued by WHL goalie Tyler Brennan. Though I am not good at scouting goaltenders, I can tell you he's 6'4 and athletic, but needs to work on rebound control and over-reacting to shooters. But the parts seem like they're all there. I would consider him as early as the 3rd, and I'd definitely take him in the 4th.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

This is so true. It’s also why some people including myself have low key been hoping for some loses so the devils drop a bit in the standings. That and I really like Slafkovsky. After the first 3-4 picks it becomes more hit and miss and you’re less likely to get a real game changer. The steepest drop in talent at the draft is at the top. That doesn’t mean we couldn’t get a better player with good scouting and some luck at 5-7. But our chances would be quite a bit better in the top 3 getting someone like Slafkovsky who has really emerged ahead of the pack as this season has gone on.

 

[StevenToddIves]

This is so true. It’s also why some people including myself have low key been hoping for some loses so the devils drop a bit in the standings. That and I really like Slafkovsky. After the first 3-4 picks it becomes more hit and miss and you’re less likely to get a real game changer. The steepest drop in talent at the draft is at the top. That doesn’t mean we couldn’t get a better player with good scouting and some luck at 5-7. But our chances would be quite a bit better in the top 3 getting someone like Slafkovsky who has really emerged ahead of the pack as this season has gone on.

I've said this before but I disagree with these types of percentages because good-drafting teams have better chances in the 3rd round than bad-drafting teams have at the end of the 1st round. The Devils are hard to pinpoint, because the same scouting team which was best in the NHL at late round drafting under Shero has been among the 5 worst from the 3rd round on under Fitzgerald.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I've said this before but I disagree with these types of percentages because good-drafting teams have better chances in the 3rd round than bad-drafting teams have at the end of the 1st round. The Devils are hard to pinpoint, because the same scouting team which was best in the NHL at late round drafting under Shero has been among the 5 worst from the 3rd round on under Fitzgerald.

I believe we discussed something similar to this recently. What you said is obviously true to an extent but the difference is very small. Better drafting teams have better chances. But It’s just not close to as big of a difference as you are suggesting where the average late 1st from one team is less likely than a 3rd round pick from another team.

Also, it is one, too early to judge the late round drafting under Fitz considering it’s only been a year and a half since his first draft. And two, it is much too small of a sample. Any player taken after the first round making the NHL full time is a good pick. Getting huge late round steals such as Sharangovich and Bratt is extremely rare and while the scouts involved deserve a ton of credit there is a big element of luck to these picks. We got very lucky on those two picks and that is what made us “best in the NHL” at that. If the devils thought Bratt could be anywhere close to as good as he has been they would’ve taken him at least 3-4 rounds earlier.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I believe we discussed something similar to this recently. What you said is obviously true to an extent but the difference is very small. Better drafting teams have better chances. But It’s just not close to as big of a difference as you are suggesting where the average late 1st from one team is less likely than a 3rd round pick from another team.

Also, it is one, too early to judge the late round drafting under Fitz considering it’s only been a year and a half since his first draft. And two, it is much too small of a sample. Any player taken after the first round making the NHL full time is a good pick. Getting huge late round steals such as Sharangovich and Bratt is extremely rare and while the scouts involved deserve a ton of credit there is a big element of luck to these picks. We got very lucky on those two picks and that is what made us “best in the NHL” at that. If the devils thought Bratt could be anywhere close to as good as he has been they would’ve taken him at least 3-4 rounds earlier.

No, but they did see Bratt's upside enough to have them higher on their draft board than anyone else. That's good scouting, and that's good drafting.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

No, but they did see Bratt's upside enough to have them higher on their draft board than anyone else. That's good scouting, and that's good drafting.

It’s good scouting to see potential and sure it’s definitely good drafting. But at the same time that’s not even necessarily true that they had him higher than anyone else and, there is a ton of luck involved.

 

[StevenToddIves]

It’s good scouting to see potential and sure it’s definitely good drafting. But at the same time that’s not even necessarily true that they had him higher than anyone else and, there is a ton of luck involved.

Every year I play in a fantasy hockey league with a bunch of fantasy writers I used to work at various sites with. We also have ex-NHLer Corey Hirsch and a few pretty big names in there. But every year, it's the same four or five teams at the top of a 14-team league. Why? Because these teams draft well every year.

No one's going to be right all the time. But the better you are at scouting and identifying talent, the more you're going to increase your odds with every pick. Will bad-drafting teams get lucky once in awhile? Sure. Will good drafting teams swing and miss every so often? Of course.

But a team identifying high-end talents which project to the pros with acuity will consistently find great players all throughout the draft, whereas a team drafting on the basis of some narrow philosophy like "big, strong, tough guys" or "heavy analytic emphasis" will miss more often then they hit.

That's my only point, and I agree with much of what you're saying.

 

[longislanddevil]

We need to really wrap our heads around the possibility that the Devils finish ahead of a free falling Chicago. Jiricek is the player I want. I have a terrible feeling Philadelphia will take him but what are the chances that Chicago would? What do they need and what are their draft tendencies?

I have resigned myself to the fact there is next to no chance we finish worse than Arizona, Seattle and Montreal. I feel like Ottawa is a toss-up. If the Devils pick 6th, I don’t see Jiricek being available and I sure hope I’m wrong.

 

[Hisch13r]

We need to really wrap our heads around the possibility that the Devils finish ahead of a free falling Chicago. Jiricek is the player I want. I have a terrible feeling Philadelphia will take him but what are the chances that Chicago would? What do they need and what are their draft tendencies?

I have resigned myself to the fact there is next to no chance we finish worse than Arizona, Seattle and Montreal. I feel like Ottawa is a toss-up. If the Devils pick 6th, I don’t see Jiricek being available and I sure hope I’m wrong.

It’s Columbus unless Chicago wins the lottery

 

[longislanddevil]

It’s Columbus unless Chicago wins the lottery

Thank you for correcting me. I totally forgot about the Seth Jones trade. Man…that deal is looking pretty good for Columbus….cost control that will likely result in a top 6 pick

 

[Hisch13r]

Thank you for correcting me. I totally forgot about the Seth Jones trade. Man…that deal is looking pretty good for Columbus….cost control that will likely result in a top 6 pick

I think Columbus might be a team that would pass up Jiricek and Nemec since they have Boqvist and Ceulemans. I think Montreal and Arizona are both going with a forward (unless Montreal drops to 4 and Wright/Cooley/Slaf are off board). Seattle could go either way. Philly could go either way but yeah Jiricek does seem up their alley. I’m increasingly bracing for disappointment. Hopefully our goaltending can come through yet again and keep up the tank.

If we end up 6th worst (likely chance we drop further in the lotto) and pick 6th then I think the best case is Arizona/Philly top 2. It goes Wright and Cooley. Slaf 3 to Habs. Nemec 4 to Seattle. Columbus goes center with Savoie at 5. Jiricek to us at 6th. Obviously an unlikely scenario

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Every year I play in a fantasy hockey league with a bunch of fantasy writers I used to work at various sites with. We also have ex-NHLer Corey Hirsch and a few pretty big names in there. But every year, it's the same four or five teams at the top of a 14-team league. Why? Because these teams draft well every year.

No one's going to be right all the time. But the better you are at scouting and identifying talent, the more you're going to increase your odds with every pick. Will bad-drafting teams get lucky once in awhile? Sure. Will good drafting teams swing and miss every so often? Of course.

But a team identifying high-end talents which project to the pros with acuity will consistently find great players all throughout the draft, whereas a team drafting on the basis of some narrow philosophy like "big, strong, tough guys" or "heavy analytic emphasis" will miss more often then they hit.

That's my only point, and I agree with much of what you're saying.

I agree with you but I’m saying that the distance between the worst and best drafting teams is a lot smaller than you seem to think.

And even the best drafting teams will miss a lot more than they hit once they get past the high-end prospects in the 1st round.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I think Columbus might be a team that would pass up Jiricek and Nemec since they have Boqvist and Ceulemans. I think Montreal and Arizona are both going with a forward (unless Montreal drops to 4 and Wright/Cooley/Slaf are off board). Seattle could go either way. Philly could go either way but yeah Jiricek does seem up their alley. I’m increasingly bracing for disappointment. Hopefully our goaltending can come through yet again and keep up the tank.

If we end up 6th worst (likely chance we drop further in the lotto) and pick 6th then I think the best case is Arizona/Philly top 2. It goes Wright and Cooley. Slaf 3 to Habs. Nemec 4 to Seattle. Columbus goes center with Savoie at 5. Jiricek to us at 6th. Obviously an unlikely scenario

Jiricek and Nemec are far superior to Boqvist and Ceulemans, but I agree it's still likely Columbus is targeting a center.

I think Philly takes Jiricek at #2. They are desperate at RD, and their current management loves big/physical guys. No way they take Cooley at #2 in my mind.

Montreal and Seattle both take Wright at #1 and are wild cards at #2, but the most likely scenario for either of them would have to be Slafkovsky.

I also think the only scenario which sees Cooley going top 2 is if a center-desperate team drafts #2, like Arizona or Columbus. Otherwise, it's going to be Slafkovsky -- who is probably the only top 3 lock in this draft aside from of course Wright.

Here's one mini-mock based on the current draft order:

1 ARI Wright -- I think this is obvious
2 MTL Slafkovsky -- the Habs would see him as a perfect fit for Suzuki/Caufield the same way NJ would see him as a perfect fit for Hughes/Bratt
3 SEA Nemec -- I feel Nemec's sick playoff run has raised his stock, and Kraken lacks a high-end offensive defenseman
4 PHI Jiricek -- I'm very confident this would be the guy here
5 NJ ??? -- this is the worst case scenario, but it's very possible with the current order. I have to think -- judging on the Devils needs and Fitzgerald's words that Slafkovsky, Jiricek and Nemec are the top three targets for the team. I feel the best option here would be a trade-down scenario, but Fitzgerald has not shown the draft-day moxie to perform such a deal, which could have maximized the picks of Mukhamadullin and Stillman.

Here's another, better scenario, which I'd say is equally possible:

1 ARI Wright
2 MTL Slafkovsky
3 SEA Cooley
4 PHI Jiricek
5 NJ Nemec

But I think the fact is that the Devils will need win a top 2 slot to get Slafkovsky, and they will need to be ahead of Philly to get Jiricek. The wild card is of course Seattle, because they need everything and we don't yet have a grasp on their drafting tendencies.

 

[BxDevilsFan]

@StevenToddIves SEA could determine what we do in the draft for sure. It they go w/ Cooley, we could get Nemec or Jiricek, but if they go w/ Nemec or Jiricek, it'd impact what we do. I have the guts to take Gauthier at 5 but I'm sure trading down is a realistic and possible best option.

 

[StevenToddIves]

@StevenToddIves SEA could determine what we do in the draft for sure. It they go w/ Cooley, we could get Nemec or Jiricek, but if they go w/ Nemec or Jiricek, it'd impact what we do. I have the guts to take Gauthier at 5 but I'm sure trading down is a realistic and possible best option.

I'd have the guts to take Gauthier at #5 as well, but my philosophy -- which I've stated a lot -- is to maximize the value of picks. So if Columbus -- who would be picking a few slots later and is desperate at center -- called, I'd be glad to trade down to #8 or whatever and let them have Cooley. Then, I'd take Gauthier at #8 and also probably have an extra 2nd round pick to play with, which is huge this year in particular because Russian future stars like Miroshnichenko, Perevalov and Trikozov could all conceivably fall.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Lottery win for 2nd overall and Slafkovsky please. If not, Nemec hopefully. After that I’m not even sure yet who I’d want the most. Quite a few guys that I can see potential in and would be okay with but I haven’t fallen in love with as of right now.

 

[Rydev]

Lottery win for 2nd overall and Slafkovsky please. If not, Nemec hopefully. After that I’m not even sure yet who I’d want the most. Quite a few guys that I can see potential in and would be okay with but I haven’t fallen in love with as of right now.

A lottery win would be so awesome.. but Im tempering my expectations and expecting a pick around 4-7. I think when its all said and done we will be above Arizona Seattle Philly Montreal, and possibly one or both of Ottawa and Chicago

So im guessIng these reoccurring, big names in Wright Slafkovsky Nemec Jiricek and Cooley will be off the board. In that case Id go with one of Joakim Kemell, Frank Nazar, Cutter Gauthier, or Ryan Chesley

 

[My3Sons]

Lottery win for 2nd overall and Slafkovsky please. If not, Nemec hopefully. After that I’m not even sure yet who I’d want the most. Quite a few guys that I can see potential in and would be okay with but I haven’t fallen in love with as of right now.

There’s a lot of fish in the sea. Let romance find you.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Big loss tonight in terms of draft position. I would say we could realistically finish anywhere from 3-7 depending on how we and others finish the season. I think it’s highly unlikely that Montreal or Arizona could catch us at this point nor do I think it’s likely that we could catch Buffalo. Flyers(4) are 1 point behind and Chicago(6) and Ottawa(7) are 3 and 4 points ahead respectively.

Seattle(3) is 6 points behind but has played one less game and we have the tiebreaker with them. So they are basically 3 wins behind and we play them on Saturday. We win and there’s no chance they’re catching us. They win and it’s attainable as they would now only be 2 wins behind essentially with 8 games left (1 more than us). Would still be more likely that we finish ahead as they would have to win like 4 of their last 8 if we only won 2 of our last 7 or they’d have to win 3 if we won 1. But if we lost to them and Vegas to finish the road trip and they beat us and Ottawa which is doable than it would all of the sudden be very close.

 

[StevenToddIves]

4/17 mini-mock:

1 ARI Wright
2 MTL Slafkovsky
3 SEA Cooley
4 PHI Jiricek
5 NJ Nemec
6 CLB Nazar
7 OTT Geekie
8 BUF Lambert
9 DET Gauthier
10 SJ Kemell
11 ANH Lakkerimaki
12 CLB Savoie


The Devils pick is in a pretty precarious spot right now at #5 overall. With Wright and Slafkovsky almost certain to go top 3, NJ's need for one of the two RD is then contingent on Seattle taking a F, since most indications are that Philly has the same desire/need for one of the RD as the Devils do.

We need to keep in mind that both Nemec and Jiricek have seen their stock rise in recent weeks. Jiricek looks better coming back from his injury as he did beforehand, and Nemec is having a memorable, even historic, playoff run in the Slovakian league. On the end of year draft rankings, both of these two will find their names in several top 3s.

With the rise of Slafkovsky and of Nemec/Jiricek, the likely faller is Cooley. This is not a criticism of Cooley, but while he was the best player on the US-NTDP over the first part of the season, he has plateaued a bit over the past months and was not appreciably superior to Nazar, Gauthier or even McGroarty. This could create another interesting scenario which would be unfortunate for the Devils:

1 ARI Wright
2 MTL Slafkovsky
3 SEA Nemec
4 PHI Jiricek
5 NJ ???

Who would the Devils take in such a scenario? Would they trade down? It's doubtful, since Fitzgerald likely had such opportunities with both the Mukhamadullin and Stillman picks, but instead opted to just take the guy he wanted and not to tempt fate in a trade-down. My personal opinion is the NJ pick in this scenario would then be Gauthier, despite the fact his end-of-year consensus ranking will likely be a bit further down in the 9-13 range.

 

[Devs3cups]

4/17 mini-mock:

1 ARI Wright
2 MTL Slafkovsky
3 SEA Cooley
4 PHI Jiricek
5 NJ Nemec
6 CLB Nazar
7 OTT Geekie
8 BUF Lambert
9 DET Gauthier
10 SJ Kemell
11 ANH Lakkerimaki
12 CLB Savoie


The Devils pick is in a pretty precarious spot right now at #5 overall. With Wright and Slafkovsky almost certain to go top 3, NJ's need for one of the two RD is then contingent on Seattle taking a F, since most indications are that Philly has the same desire/need for one of the RD as the Devils do.

We need to keep in mind that both Nemec and Jiricek have seen their stock rise in recent weeks. Jiricek looks better coming back from his injury as he did beforehand, and Nemec is having a memorable, even historic, playoff run in the Slovakian league. On the end of year draft rankings, both of these two will find their names in several top 3s.

With the rise of Slafkovsky and of Nemec/Jiricek, the likely faller is Cooley. This is not a criticism of Cooley, but while he was the best player on the US-NTDP over the first part of the season, he has plateaued a bit over the past months and was not appreciably superior to Nazar, Gauthier or even McGroarty. This could create another interesting scenario which would be unfortunate for the Devils:

1 ARI Wright
2 MTL Slafkovsky
3 SEA Nemec
4 PHI Jiricek
5 NJ ???

Who would the Devils take in such a scenario? Would they trade down? It's doubtful, since Fitzgerald likely had such opportunities with both the Mukhamadullin and Stillman picks, but instead opted to just take the guy he wanted and not to tempt fate in a trade-down. My personal opinion is the NJ pick in this scenario would then be Gauthier, despite the fact his end-of-year consensus ranking will likely be a bit further down in the 9-13 range.

It honestly feels like we'll miss out on the 2 d-men, unless, as you said, Seattle goes forward. If we finish out the season in the 5th spot, we have 21.6% chance of drafting 5th, and 44.4% chance (!!!) of drafting 6th, per Tankathon. From what you know of Fitz, who do you think would be the likely target at the 5th or 6th spot considering Jiricek/Nemec are gone? I like the idea of Gauthier, but the offensive upside at the next level kind of concerns me, is that a legitimate concern?

 

[Guttersniped]

4/17 mini-mock:

1 ARI Wright
2 MTL Slafkovsky
3 SEA Cooley
4 PHI Jiricek
5 NJ Nemec
6 CLB Nazar
7 OTT Geekie
8 BUF Lambert
9 DET Gauthier
10 SJ Kemell
11 ANH Lakkerimaki
12 CLB Savoie


The Devils pick is in a pretty precarious spot right now at #5 overall. With Wright and Slafkovsky almost certain to go top 3, NJ's need for one of the two RD is then contingent on Seattle taking a F, since most indications are that Philly has the same desire/need for one of the RD as the Devils do.

We need to keep in mind that both Nemec and Jiricek have seen their stock rise in recent weeks. Jiricek looks better coming back from his injury as he did beforehand, and Nemec is having a memorable, even historic, playoff run in the Slovakian league. On the end of year draft rankings, both of these two will find their names in several top 3s.

With the rise of Slafkovsky and of Nemec/Jiricek, the likely faller is Cooley. This is not a criticism of Cooley, but while he was the best player on the US-NTDP over the first part of the season, he has plateaued a bit over the past months and was not appreciably superior to Nazar, Gauthier or even McGroarty. This could create another interesting scenario which would be unfortunate for the Devils:

1 ARI Wright
2 MTL Slafkovsky
3 SEA Nemec
4 PHI Jiricek
5 NJ ???

Who would the Devils take in such a scenario? Would they trade down? It's doubtful, since Fitzgerald likely had such opportunities with both the Mukhamadullin and Stillman picks, but instead opted to just take the guy he wanted and not to tempt fate in a trade-down. My personal opinion is the NJ pick in this scenario would then be Gauthier, despite the fact his end-of-year consensus ranking will likely be a bit further down in the 9-13 range.

Still not sure Cooley falls that far, cooling down mostly stopped the talk about him as a potential 10A. The rankings aren’t set and U18 can help out the Americans, who I assume are sending everyone.

Cooley still can be seen as a safer pick, particularly as top European forwards haven’t gone great in the last few years and USNTDP have.

We’re likely pretty safe with 5th, the problem with the 5th seed is you can be pushed down by the lottery and we don’t even have that spot locked down.

 

[StevenToddIves]

It honestly feels like we'll miss out on the 2 d-men, unless, as you said, Seattle goes forward. If we finish out the season in the 5th spot, we have 21.6% chance of drafting 5th, and 44.4% chance (!!!) of drafting 6th, per Tankathon. From what you know of Fitz, who do you think would be the likely target at the 5th or 6th spot considering Jiricek/Nemec are gone? I like the idea of Gauthier, but the offensive upside at the next level kind of concerns me, is that a legitimate concern?

Gauthier has scored 19 goals in 22 USHL games. Though it's not a full season, that's 0.86 goals per game.

To give you an idea, the last US-NTDP player with this type of goal-scoring was Oliver Wahlstrom, with 26 goals in 22 games for a 0.85 GPG. If we're digging down into USHL history, Matt Coronato last year set the standard with 48/51, for a 0.94 GPG. One of the historic USHL seasons was Tomas Vanek, with 46/53 for a 0.87 GPG back in 2001-02, when the USHL was a weaker league talent-wise than it is today.

Two recent players drafted because of their finishing/goal-scoring were Brock Boeser and Bobby Brink. Boeser's draft-eligible season had him net 35/57, or 0.62 GPG. Brink had a ridiculous draft-eligible season, with 35/43, or 0.82 GPG. Want another? How about Kyle Connor with 34/56 for a 0.61 GPG.

All of these players were 1st round picks, aside from Brink who was a 2nd rounder -- although several teams blew it by passing him over and he certainly goes top 20 in a 2019 re-draft.

Gauthier gets some flak, because many of the "new age" draft analysts actively look for any reason to dismiss hard-hitting, old-school players. But Gauthier is not only 6'3, fast and with high-end shooting ability, but he's also going to collect more greasy, net-front goals than any of those other USHL stars I've just mentioned.

We have to temper this with the reality that Gauthier's overall puck skills are not at the elite levels of anyone on that list aside from perhaps Wahlstrom and Boeser -- both pure finishers who aren't to be confused with more line-driving types like Vanek, Coronato and Brink, and especially Connor who I'd say is the best player I've mentioned in this post.

So, what are you getting in Cutter Gauthier? Well, again -- he's not a line driver like Connor and he's not an elite shooter like Boeser. But he's a high-end shooter, an excellent skater, and a 6'3 monster down low and in the crease. He creates space for the high skill US-NTDP players like Cooley, Nazar and Howard and cleans up their garbage with a ton of rebound goals. He's one of the best net-front screeners I've ever seen in the USHL, although you'd wish his deflection skills were a bit higher.

I write often of how the 2021-22 Devils are 3rd in the NHL at goals off the rush and just 22nd in goals off the cycle -- maybe the largest discrepancy I've ever seen in the NHL. Gauthier certainly addresses this, while being a proven finisher/crease-crasher for high skill players. He might be the perfect compliment to Jack Hughes or Jesper Bratt down the line. And judging my his production, I think -- although we have to temper expectation because he is not an elite-puck-skills type -- this is certainly a player with 30+ goal upside at the NHL level, and a player with the requisite skill to play with high-end linemates. As he also represents precisely the type of player the Devils need in their top 6 and Fitzgerald seems to really covet, I'd have to say Gauthier would certainly be a strong consideration if the Devils miss out on Slafkovsky/Nemec/Jiricek.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Still not sure Cooley falls that far, cooling down mostly stopped the talk about him as a potential 10A. The rankings aren’t set and U18 can help out the Americans, who I assume are sending everyone.

Cooley still can be seen as a safer pick, particularly as top European forwards haven’t gone great in the last few years and USNTDP have.

We’re likely pretty safe with 5th, the problem with the 5th seed is you can be pushed down by the lottery and we don’t even have that spot locked down.

I strongly feel there is going to be a shake-up in the consensus rankings by the weeks leading up to the draft.

Slafkovsky is going to be rising, as are Nemec and Jiricek. I think most everyone who knows the draft would agree with this. The draft writers I communicate with seem to agree these 4 (with Wright) could end up as the consensus top 4.

I'm looking at the McKenzie mid-season rankings, universally considered to be the most accurate, and the top shakes out like this:

1 Wright
2 Cooley
3 Kemell
4 Savoie
5 Slafkovsky
6 Miroshnichenko
7 Jiricek
8 Yurov
9 Nemec

Ok, so let's go over them player by player, because that list was made in early January and much has changed in the prospect landscape since then.

Wright -- he's still #1
Cooley -- has plateaued a bit after a terrific start, and I'm not alone in the prospect-analysis world in giving Nazar a slight edge over him as the best F on the US-NTDP
Kemell -- really cooled after a hot start and battled some injury. Picked up play again after getting healthy, though not to his early season levels. I think it's safe to say he's dropping from the top 5, however.
Savoie -- no one is complaining about his on-ice performance, but I feel questions about his size and lack of elite skating combined with the rise of players behind him on this list will drop him from the top 5
Slafkovsky -- this list was made before the Olympics, while Slafkovsky was logging 4th line minutes in Liiga. He's the biggest riser on this list, and may get some #1 overall votes. I think he finishes the year at #2 overall, and many would agree with me.
Miro -- obviously, he's no longer considered a universal top 10 pick, and we wish him the best in his recovery
Jiricek -- his performance since return from injury has been marvelous, and he's a big, physical, two-way RD. I think he'll jump Kemell and Savoie on the final rankings, though Cooley is still in question.
Yurov -- the Russians are falling, but his play has been consistently great all year long. I think he stays around here.
Nemec -- his playoffs have him finding another gear; he's been incredible. Improved steadily all season long and then just exploded when it meant the most. He's certainly rising, the question is how high? I'd say he passes Yurov, Miro, Savoie and Kemell.

This is my best guess for the McKenzie end-of-year Top 10 rankings:

1 Wright
2 Slafkovsky
3 Cooley
4 Jiricek
5 Nemec
6 Kemell
7 Savoie
8 Nazar
9 Yurov
10 Gauthier

I think Geekie drops out, and Lambert stays out, although it's very possible one or both take those 9/10 slots.

 

[Devs3cups]

Gauthier has scored 19 goals in 22 USHL games. Though it's not a full season, that's 0.86 goals per game.

To give you an idea, the last US-NTDP player with this type of goal-scoring was Oliver Wahlstrom, with 26 goals in 22 games for a 0.85 GPG. If we're digging down into USHL history, Matt Coronato last year set the standard with 48/51, for a 0.94 GPG. One of the historic USHL seasons was Tomas Vanek, with 46/53 for a 0.87 GPG back in 2001-02, when the USHL was a weaker league talent-wise than it is today.

Two recent players drafted because of their finishing/goal-scoring were Brock Boeser and Bobby Brink. Boeser's draft-eligible season had him net 35/57, or 0.62 GPG. Brink had a ridiculous draft-eligible season, with 35/43, or 0.82 GPG. Want another? How about Kyle Connor with 34/56 for a 0.61 GPG.

All of these players were 1st round picks, aside from Brink who was a 2nd rounder -- although several teams blew it by passing him over and he certainly goes top 20 in a 2019 re-draft.

Gauthier gets some flak, because many of the "new age" draft analysts actively look for any reason to dismiss hard-hitting, old-school players. But Gauthier is not only 6'3, fast and with high-end shooting ability, but he's also going to collect more greasy, net-front goals than any of those other USHL stars I've just mentioned.

We have to temper this with the reality that Gauthier's overall puck skills are not at the elite levels of anyone on that list aside from perhaps Wahlstrom and Boeser -- both pure finishers who aren't to be confused with more line-driving types like Vanek, Coronato and Brink, and especially Connor who I'd say is the best player I've mentioned in this post.

So, what are you getting in Cutter Gauthier? Well, again -- he's not a line driver like Connor and he's not an elite shooter like Boeser. But he's a high-end shooter, an excellent skater, and a 6'3 monster down low and in the crease. He creates space for the high skill US-NTDP players like Cooley, Nazar and Howard and cleans up their garbage with a ton of rebound goals. He's one of the best net-front screeners I've ever seen in the USHL, although you'd wish his deflection skills were a bit higher.

I write often of how the 2021-22 Devils are 3rd in the NHL at goals off the rush and just 22nd in goals off the cycle -- maybe the largest discrepancy I've ever seen in the NHL. Gauthier certainly addresses this, while being a proven finisher/crease-crasher for high skill players. He might be the perfect compliment to Jack Hughes or Jesper Bratt down the line. And judging my his production, I think -- although we have to temper expectation because he is not an elite-puck-skills type -- this is certainly a player with 30+ goal upside at the NHL level, and a player with the requisite skill to play with high-end linemates. As he also represents precisely the type of player the Devils need in their top 6 and Fitzgerald seems to really covet, I'd have to say Gauthier would certainly be a strong consideration if the Devils miss out on Slafkovsky/Nemec/Jiricek.

Thanks for the writeup, very insightful as always!