Prospect Info: 2022 Post-Deadline Devils-Centric Mock Draft 2.0 (thru NJ 2nd round)

[Hisch13r]

f*** it at this point I'd be all in on trading up and moving late picks for Jiricek if we can. It's not like we're going to miss out on anything with how Fitz drafts.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

f*** it at this point I'd be all in on trading up and moving late picks for Jiricek if we can. It's not like we're going to miss out on anything with how Fitz drafts.

How does Fitz draft? Seems like he’s done a pretty good job so far.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

7/10 points on the road trip and now with 6 games remaining, we’re in a position where we’re most likely looking at picking in the 6-8 range save a lottery win. 5 at best If Seattle or Philly end up passing us. We’re now tied with Chicago but we have the tiebreaker. I believe we could still get one of Jiricek or Nemec in that range but it’s no guarantee and we may not have the pick of which one we like. Wright and Slafkovsky are top 5 locks, Cooley would be very likely. That’s probably 3/5 top 5 picks. The other 2 could either be 1 or 2 of the D and/or Kemell and Savoie.

 

[Devs3cups]

7/10 points on the road trip and now with 6 games remaining, we’re in a position where we’re most likely looking at picking in the 6-8 range save a lottery win. 5 at best If Seattle or Philly end up passing us. We’re now tied with Chicago but we have the tiebreaker. I believe we could still get one of Jiricek or Nemec in that range but it’s no guarantee and we may not have the pick of which one we like. Wright and Slafkovsky are top 5 locks, Cooley would be very likely. That’s probably 3/5 top 5 picks. The other 2 could either be 1 or 2 of the D and/or Kemell and Savoie.

So, if we end up in that range, who’s your pick? Given Fitz’s comments about size and driving guys, Gauthier might be the pick. Kemmell intrigues me.

 

[Hisch13r]

So, if we end up in that range, who’s your pick? Given Fitz’s comments about size and driving guys, Gauthier might be the pick. Kemmell intrigues me.

I'd be pulling for Nazar probably.

 

[Buck Dancer]

So, if we end up in that range, who’s your pick? Given Fitz’s comments about size and driving guys, Gauthier might be the pick. Kemmell intrigues me.

Cutter Gauthier becomes the #1 option if the usual suspects are all off the board. Adding a big strong power forward to play with Jack or Nico has to be at top of our priority list with adding a couple of right handed dmen.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Big loss for the devils and win for Philadelphia. Chicago still ply tonight. This is how things look now.


26. Ottawa 65 (5 games)
27. Chicago 63 (5 games)
28. New Jersey 61 (5 games)
29. Philadelphia 59 (4 games)
30. Seattle 58 (6 games)

 

[StevenToddIves]

How does Fitz draft? Seems like he’s done a pretty good job so far.

Fitzgerald has done very well with his top #20 picks, which in Fitzgerald's defense is the most important thing. Holtz was a good pick at #7, Mercer is looking like the best available player at #18, Hughes was the right pick at #4.

Fitzgerald has also done well with mid-round goaltenders. Nico Daws and Jakub Malek are both looking like good picks for the Devils.

Unfortunately, Fitzgerald needs work in several other areas. Though his late first round picks of Mukhamadullin and Stillman both have high probabilities to make the NHL as regular players, both were taken a bit off the radar, and the value could have been maximized more proficiently in a trade-down scenario, which Shero was good at but Fitzgerald seems adverse to.

The mid and late round picks have been just bad. In 2020, Edwards was a ok pick with poor strategy in mind while the Shlaine and Baumgartner picks were both abominable. In 2021, Salminen, Vilen and Hurtig were all poorly conceived picks, though Fitzgerald rebounded a tad with a nice 7th round grab of Zakhar Bardakov.

The Devils enter the 2022 draft with huge organizational holes at RD and depth C which could have both been alleviated with some more strategic drafting in the prior two years.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Fitzgerald has done very well with his top #20 picks, which in Fitzgerald's defense is the most important thing. Holtz was a good pick at #7, Mercer is looking like the best available player at #18, Hughes was the right pick at #4.

Fitzgerald has also done well with mid-round goaltenders. Nico Daws and Jakub Malek are both looking like good picks for the Devils.

Unfortunately, Fitzgerald needs work in several other areas. Though his late first round picks of Mukhamadullin and Stillman both have high probabilities to make the NHL as regular players, both were taken a bit off the radar, and the value could have been maximized more proficiently in a trade-down scenario, which Shero was good at but Fitzgerald seems adverse to.

The mid and late round picks have been just bad. In 2020, Edwards was a ok pick with poor strategy in mind while the Shlaine and Baumgartner picks were both abominable. In 2021, Salminen, Vilen and Hurtig were all poorly conceived picks, though Fitzgerald rebounded a tad with a nice 7th round grab of Zakhar Bardakov.

The Devils enter the 2022 draft with huge organizational holes at RD and depth C which could have both been alleviated with some more strategic drafting in the prior two years.

I think it’s way too early to fairly judge his late round picks. The only picks that have actually come through seem good so far. The reality with the late round picks is that even if one of those guys in the 5th, 6th, or 7th round turns out he’s done well.
I do agree that some of his picks look a little questionable so far but I still think it’s way too early to really judge his drafting. And as I said he seems to have done really well with some of them so far (Mercer, Daws, Hughes). For most of the others it remains to be seen.

 

[StevenToddIves]

So, if we end up in that range, who’s your pick? Given Fitz’s comments about size and driving guys, Gauthier might be the pick. Kemmell intrigues me.

If the season ended now, the Devils pick 5th. Wright is the likely #2 pick, and Slafkovsky seems almost a certainty for the top 2 or 3. Cooley would be the other guy most likely to go early, a speedy and skilled C who currently is the consensus #2, though Slafkovsky could very well pass him in the final rankings. Here's a mini-mock for 4/21:

1 ARI Wright
2 MTL Slafkovsky
3 PHI Jiricek
4 SEA Cooley
5 NJ Nemec
6 CLB Lambert
7 OTT Geekie

The wild card here -- as in most scenarios -- is Seattle, as it's too early to accurately grasp their drafting MO and, as an expansion team, they need pretty much everything. I have them taking Cooley, and building out of the middle with a 1/2 of Beniers/Cooley. But they would also be a threat to take Nemec, as their future franchise 1D, which would leave the Devils in quite a lurch.

1 ARI Wright
2 MTL Slafkovsky
3 PHI Jiricek
4 SEA Nemec
5 NJ ???

In this scenario, I would try to trade down to the #7/#8/#9 range -- but Fitzgerald has proven adverse to this type of move. But my preference would be to trade down and then draft Cutter Gauthier, who is the best pure power forward in the draft and also one of the best handful of goal-scorers. The Devils are desperate for interior/power forwards and Gauthier would fill this need while offering the requisite skill to play with top players like Hughes and Bratt. This was Gauthier's actual role with the US-NTDP this year, as both Cooley and Nazar played their best hockey with Gauthier creating boat-loads of room and chaos on their line.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I think it’s way too early to fairly judge his late round picks. The only picks that have actually come through seem good so far. The reality with the late round picks is that even if one of those guys in the 5th, 6th, or 7th round turns out he’s done well.
I do agree that some of his picks look a little questionable so far but I still think it’s way too early to really judge his drafting. And as I said he seems to have done really well with some of them so far (Mercer, Daws, Hughes). For most of the others it remains to be seen.

Normally I'd agree with this sentiment, but is Baumgartner even a prospect now, just a year plus after he was drafted? Is Hurtig, who was drafted last year? Neither of these guys have shown even a flash of NHL potential. We need to be realistic at some point.

While Edwards and Vilen could be considered decent players, neither are in the conversation for top 5 or 6 on the Devils LD prospect depth chart, so although they're not *bad* picks, I think we can question the strategy employed in making them.

I'm not attacking anyone, I'm just saying things need to be improved. The 2022 draft is crucial to the future of this franchise.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I think it’s way too early to fairly judge his late round picks. The only picks that have actually come through seem good so far. The reality with the late round picks is that even if one of those guys in the 5th, 6th, or 7th round turns out he’s done well.
I do agree that some of his picks look a little questionable so far but I still think it’s way too early to really judge his drafting. And as I said he seems to have done really well with some of them so far (Mercer, Daws, Hughes). For most of the others it remains to be seen.

Like I said, the most important thing is the top 20 picks -- and Fitzgerald has knocked them out of the park. Kudos to the scouting staff. And the goalies he has also done well on.

 

[Devs3cups]

If the season ended now, the Devils pick 5th. Wright is the likely #2 pick, and Slafkovsky seems almost a certainty for the top 2 or 3. Cooley would be the other guy most likely to go early, a speedy and skilled C who currently is the consensus #2, though Slafkovsky could very well pass him in the final rankings. Here's a mini-mock for 4/21:

1 ARI Wright
2 MTL Slafkovsky
3 PHI Jiricek
4 SEA Cooley
5 NJ Nemec
6 CLB Lambert
7 OTT Geekie

The wild card here -- as in most scenarios -- is Seattle, as it's too early to accurately grasp their drafting MO and, as an expansion team, they need pretty much everything. I have them taking Cooley, and building out of the middle with a 1/2 of Beniers/Cooley. But they would also be a threat to take Nemec, as their future franchise 1D, which would leave the Devils in quite a lurch.

1 ARI Wright
2 MTL Slafkovsky
3 PHI Jiricek
4 SEA Nemec
5 NJ ???

In this scenario, I would try to trade down to the #7/#8/#9 range -- but Fitzgerald has proven adverse to this type of move. But my preference would be to trade down and then draft Cutter Gauthier, who is the best pure power forward in the draft and also one of the best handful of goal-scorers. The Devils are desperate for interior/power forwards and Gauthier would fill this need while offering the requisite skill to play with top players like Hughes and Bratt. This was Gauthier's actual role with the US-NTDP this year, as both Cooley and Nazar played their best hockey with Gauthier creating boat-loads of room and chaos on their line.

Thank you for this great writeup! How do you feel about Nazar for us? From what I’ve seen and read, he seems like a great offensive force with an intensity/grot side to his game. Not afraid to go to the middle of the ice and crash the net. How do you see him fitting with us?

 

[Lou Bloom]

There's enough talent in the top 10 of this class that I'm not overly worried about where the Devils fall. Sure, I'm a huge Jiricek fan and I'd rather be in the top 5 but between Wright, Slafkovsky, Nemec, Jiricek, Cooley, Lambert, Savoie, Nazar, Lekkermaki, Kemmell, etc... there's not really much separation in terms of skill and talent in that group of players and I wouldn't be surprised if the best player out of that group is one that's selected outside the top 5.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

There's enough talent in the top 10 of this class that I'm not overly worried about where the Devils fall. Sure, I'm a huge Jiricek fan and I'd rather be in the top 5 but between Wright, Slafkovsky, Nemec, Jiricek, Cooley, Lambert, Savoie, Nazar, Lekkermaki, Kemmell, etc... there's not really much separation in terms of skill and talent in that group of players and I wouldn't be surprised if the best player out of that group is one that's selected outside the top 5.

Disagree with this. Wright and now Slafkovsky are a tier above the others. And then I’m not sure all the other guys are on the same level either. For example, Lekkermaki isn’t on Cooley or Nemec’s level IMO.

And while it is possible that the best player isn’t in the top 5, your odds of getting a better player are better the higher you are. How well you draft and develop is important too but you have a better chance with higher picks.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Disagree with this. Wright and now Slafkovsky are a tier above the others. And then I’m not sure all the other guys are on the same level either. For example, Lekkermaki isn’t on Cooley or Nemec’s level IMO.

And while it is possible that the best player isn’t in the top 5, your odds of getting a better player are better the higher you are. How well you draft and develop is important too but you have a better chance with higher picks.

I don't see how Wright or Slafkovsky have cemented themselves as a tier above the others. Slafkovsky's offensive game is very much a work in progress and Wright's having an extremely underwhelming draft season for a consensus #1 pick and doesn't possess a single elite tool.

Meanwhile Nemec's easily outpacing Brandt Clarke's draft season in the same league, Jiricek's showcasing elite tools on a consistent basis and looking like a potential two way force, Cooley's numbers stack up really well with former USNTDP stars in recent years and showcases some of the best skating in the class, Lambert has some of the best offensive tools in the entire class, Savoie has been an elite performer in the WHL with elite playmaking, Kemmell put up elite numbers for a 1st year draft eligible in Liga.

The odds are better the higher you go up but depending on the draft class this difference can range from extremely wide to barely noticeable and I'd argue with this draft class specifically that the latter is more likely.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I don't see how Wright or Slafkovsky have cemented themselves as a tier above the others. Slafkovsky's offensive game is very much a work in progress and Wright's having an extremely underwhelming draft season for a consensus #1 pick and doesn't possess a single elite tool.

Meanwhile Nemec's easily outpacing Brandt Clarke's draft season in the same league, Jiricek's showcasing elite tools on a consistent basis and looking like a potential two way force, Cooley's numbers stack up really well with former USNTDP stars in recent years and showcases some of the best skating in the class, Lambert has some of the best offensive tools in the entire class, Savoie has been an elite performer in the WHL with elite playmaking, Kemmell put up elite numbers for a 1st year draft eligible in Liga.

The odds are better the higher you go up but depending on the draft class this difference can range from extremely wide to barely noticeable and I'd argue with this draft class specifically that the latter is more likely.

Slafkovsky has an elite set of skills and his offensive game isn’t really a work in progress at all. And he doesn’t really have any weaknesses. The biggest knock against him is his lack of production in LIIGA early on where he really wasn’t put in a position to succeed at all. Since he’s got more opportunity he’s started to produce well and he tore it up at the Olympics. And his combination of IQ, size, and puck skills is really unique and gives him a very high ceiling. He’s also a very good forechecker and good in battles. There really isn’t anything not to like.

Wright has been the wire to wire number 1 and his season hasn’t been extremely underwhelming at all. That’s a massive exaggeration. He doesn’t have Mcdavid numbers, but they’re comparable to Hischier’s draft year numbers in a weaker league when he shot up rankings to #1 overall. It was probably fair to expect a little more particularly in the goal department with all his hype but his numbers or his overall game aren’t close to extremely underwhelming. He’s very good in all aspects of the game, very smart, is very good defensively, and has one of the best shots in the draft which we can fairly expect will lead to more goals in the future.

Cooley had a really hot start but has cooled off considerably and arguably and in a lot of peoples opinions hasn’t even been the best forward on his team.

Nemec who is the closest to the top 2 IMO is putting up very good numbers in a weak league. He’s a little harder to project and riskier. It’s also not like we would be talking about Clarke going top 2 in this draft either.

Jiricek has some holes and risk to his game which I talked about heavily in one of these threads the other day. Some things I think he needs to really work on to have success in the NHL and reach his potential.

Lambert has a great skillset but has struggled with production on two teams and has some concerns about his game including his IQ and all around game. He’s a purely offensive player who hasn’t been able to produce well enough. He could be the best player in the draft in if he figured it out but he also comes with a lot more risk.

Kemell put up really good numbers at the start while riding a high shooting % and has since cooled off considerably. I also just don’t his ceiling and potential is as high as some of the others.

Elite performer Savoie’s number aren’t as good as extremely underwhelming Wrights and his all around game isn’t as good at all and Wright has a much better track record prior to this season.



I don’t agree with you on that. Particularly in terms of the forwards. I think the top 2 guys have a decent amount of separation on the others behind them. I think they’re probably the 2 safest picks and they have among the highest potential. I think the rest of the forwards after them are closer too eachother but even then the higher you are picking the more likely you are to get the guy that you believe in the most. The NHL teams aren’t going to come into the draft viewing all of those players equally.

 

[HBK27]

Devils currently with the 5th worst record in the NHL, though they can still realistically finish anywhere between 3rd and 7th. Gonna be tough to catch Philly at 3rd, as they are 2 points behind NJ with only 4 games remaining, though they have some winnable games against Chicago, Winnipeg & Ottawa after the upcoming matchup against Pittsburgh, who they should play hard given the rivalry.

Kraken are 3 points behind NJ with a game in hand in the 4th Point % slot. They have a tough schedule coming up though, facing Minnesota, Dallas and Vancouver on the road followed by a home game against the Kings - all teams fighting for their playoff lives. They end the season with games against San Jose and Winnipeg. Tough to see us "catching" them.

Chicago is right on the Devils heels in the 6th slot - up by 2 points, but with one less game to play and the Devils own the RW tiebreaker, which would drop them back in the order if both teams are tied in points. They've got games against the Sharks, Flyers (hopefully no OT), Golden Knights and Sabres.

Finally, there's Ottawa, who are 4 points up on the Devils, own the tiebreaker and also have 5 games remaining. They've got the easiest remaining schedule with games against the Blue Jackets, Canadiens, Devils, Panthers & Flyers. Maybe the Panthers think about resting some players in that game considering it is the 2nd to last of the season and they have another game the following night, though they're also fighting for the for the President's trophy and it probably makes little difference anyway.

Devils still have 2 against Carolina, 2 against Detroit (oddly, both still at home) and 1 against the Sens. Hurricanes are tied with the Rangers in points, so they need these games...though they play the Rangers on Tuesday before their final game of the season against the Devils next Thursday, so there's a slim chance their playoff position may be locked in by then.

Overall, seems like we most likely stay in that 5th slot with a chance of dropping down to 6th, but who knows which team will show up these next few games.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Devils currently with the 5th worst record in the NHL, though they can still realistically finish anywhere between 3rd and 7th. Gonna be tough to catch Philly at 3rd, as they are 2 points behind NJ with only 4 games remaining, though they have some winnable games against Chicago, Winnipeg & Ottawa after the upcoming matchup against Pittsburgh, who they should play hard given the rivalry.

Kraken are 3 points behind NJ with a game in hand in the 4th Point % slot. They have a tough schedule coming up though, facing Minnesota, Dallas and Vancouver on the road followed by a home game against the Kings - all teams fighting for their playoff lives. They end the season with games against San Jose and Winnipeg. Tough to see us "catching" them.

Chicago is right on the Devils heels in the 6th slot - up by 2 points, but with one less game to play and the Devils own the RW tiebreaker, which would drop them back in the order if both teams are tied in points. They've got games against the Sharks, Flyers (hopefully no OT), Golden Knights and Sabres.

Finally, there's Ottawa, who are 4 points up on the Devils, own the tiebreaker and also have 5 games remaining. They've got the easiest remaining schedule with games against the Blue Jackets, Canadiens, Devils, Panthers & Flyers. Maybe the Panthers think about resting some players in that game considering it is the 2nd to last of the season and they have another game the following night, though they're also fighting for the for the President's trophy and it probably makes little difference anyway.

Devils still have 2 against Carolina, 2 against Detroit (oddly, both still at home) and 1 against the Sens. Hurricanes are tied with the Rangers in points, so they need these games...though they play the Rangers on Tuesday before their final game of the season against the Devils next Thursday, so there's a slim chance their playoff position may be locked in by then.

Overall, seems like we most likely stay in that 5th slot with a chance of dropping down to 6th, but who knows which team will show up these next few games.

Although it’s probably more likely they don’t get passed by Seattle or Philly it’s still very possible. Seattle has been better lately and with 6 games left could get a few wins in there. They also have the tiebreaker on us. Philly is only 2 back and if they get a regulation win to tie things they will be ahead with the tiebreaker.
Anyone can beat anyone on any given night in the NHL so we’ll see what happens over the next few days. How the Devils do will be the biggest thing.

 

[Mr Bojanglez]

Chicago is right on the Devils heels in the 6th slot - up by 2 points, but with one less game to play and the Devils own the RW tiebreaker, which would drop them back in the order if both teams are tied in points. They've got games against the Sharks, Flyers (hopefully no OT), Golden Knights and Sabres.

wouldn't OT be a good thing?

 

[HBK27]

wouldn't OT be a good thing?

LOL...yes, you are completely right. Let's go OT!

For some crazy reason, I was thinking about how things work when vying for a playoff spot. Not sure where I got that idea this past decade.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

wouldn't OT be a good thing?

LOL...yes, you are completely right. Let's go OT!

For some crazy reason, I was thinking about how things work when vying for a playoff spot. Not sure where I got that idea this past decade.

Well actually depending on how the devils do we might want no OT. The flyers are 2 points back of the Devils and they are tied on the first tiebreaker with 19 Regulation Wins. If the devils lose this weekend and/or Chicago wins to the point where we aren’t too worried about them. We want Philly to win in regulation so that they have the tiebreaker if we end up tied with them.

There’s a good chance by the time that Monday game comes around we will be be either rooting for a regulation Philly win or a Chicago win in any fashion.

 

[Guttersniped]

It’s impossible to guess where exactly we’ll be after five more games.

People were sure we were gunning straight for the bottom after losses and then were convinced we were rocketing away from the good stuff after wins… and we ended up not moving that much.

Our current position is more from the shocking number of teams with truly terrible records and we got shoved up in part because Philly imploded so spectacularly.

The Flyers won a game that was pretty impossible to lose against Carey Price after 6 losses. They did had a tougher schedule and it gets easier (including the Blackhawks), but we have 2 point lead and a game in hand. In terms of tiebreaker, we’re tied at 19 in RW and we lead 24-23 in ROW.

The only teams Chicago has beaten in 13 games are San Jose and Arizona.

Arizona has only beaten two teams in 17 games: San Jose and Chicago. (they played Chicago twice.)

So Chicago is very bad. They have 2 point lead but we have a game in hand and win RW tie breaker 19-15. They do play both Philly and San Jose though and those are winnable games even for them. (The other two games are Vegas and Buffalo.) They are very terrible right now though.

Seattle is on a 3 game win streak and is 9-7-0 in their last 16 games and has 6 games left.

That win streak is a little less exciting when you realize it includes wins again teams currently in 32nd, 31st, 28th, 27th, 26th and 25th place. (They also did beat the Stars, Kings and Avs.)

The Kraken have pretty tough schedule other than San Jose. They do lead the RW tie breaker 22-19 but have a 3 point deficit to make up.

Ottawa has 5 games left, an easy schedule with 5 games left (including the Habs & Flyers), 4 point lead and win the RW tie breaker 24-19. I don’t really see us passing them even if we beat them in regulation.

We could technically catch Detroit, we play them twice so they would need to lose their other two games to the Leafs & Penguins while we get five points out of our other three games. So not likely at all obviously.

HockeyViz has the Sadness %, the chance of not picking the top 5 (including the lottery) and not making the playoffs.
PHI 11%
SEA 35%
NJD 56%
CHI 64%
OTT 85%
DET 89%

That feels about right. It would be nice if PHI or SEA surged up but I’m not confident about it. (And Seattle feels more likely at this point.) Chicago possibly holds on but… eh.

 

[forceten]

At this point let’s just ice 6 attackers for the whole game.

 

[Eggtimer]

Start Gilles . Absolutely want one of the RHD (after Slaf) .
Remaining schedule looks decent for us. A few of the teams we need to win have some easy matchups.
If I can get some time , I will post the teams we are in a “race” with to the bottom and their schedules.