Prospect Info: 2022 Post-Deadline Devils-Centric Mock Draft 2.0 (thru NJ 2nd round)

[Captain3rdLine]

26. Ottawa 65 (5 games)
27. Chicago 63 (4 games)
28. New Jersey 61 (5 games)
29. Philadelphia 59 (4 games)
30. Seattle 58 (6 games)

Friday:
OTT win vs CBJ
SEA win vs MIN

Saturday:
CAR win vs NJD
OTT win vs MTL
CHI win vs SJS
SEA win vs DAL

Sunday:
DET win vs NJD
PHI win vs PIT

By the end of the weekend it’s very likely 1 or 2 of those teams either way will no longer be within reach.

 

[Eggtimer]

26. Ottawa 65 (5 games)
27. Chicago 63 (4 games)
28. New Jersey 61 (5 games)
29. Philadelphia 59 (4 games)
30. Seattle 58 (6 games)

Friday:
OTT win vs CBJ
SEA win vs MIN

Saturday:
CAR win vs NJD
OTT win vs MTL
CHI win vs SJS
SEA win vs DAL

Sunday:
DET win vs NJD
PHI win vs PIT

By the end of the weekend it’s very likely 1 or 2 of those teams either way will no longer be within reach.

Thank you for doing that. I’m not worried about the Sens anymore. I don’t think we finished worse than them.
It’s Philly Chicago SEA we need to win out or,get as many points as possible .
I think they have some very winnable games to finish out the season? I thought there were some head to heads of teams close around us ?

 

[StevenToddIves]

Thank you for this great writeup! How do you feel about Nazar for us? From what I’ve seen and read, he seems like a great offensive force with an intensity/grot side to his game. Not afraid to go to the middle of the ice and crash the net. How do you see him fitting with us?

Nazar is a very dynamic offensive player with some sandpaper to his game which will facilitate his high end abilities translating to the highest levels. He can play center, though the majority seem to feel his NHL future is more on the RW -- though the versatility to do either certainly ups his overall value.

Though Nazar's consensus ranking is probably currently in the #10-#12 overall range, I expect him to get a bump in the final rankings to the #7/#8 neighborhood. The people who love him really love him -- Elite Prospects currently ranks him #4 overall, while Smart Scouting has him at #6. However, the most accurate ranking is universally considered to be the McKenzie scout poll, which has him far lower at #14 overall.

I think Nazar would be a great fit for the Devils, but maybe not the *best* fit. The Devils likely wish-list is a trio of much-needed RDs Jiricek and Nemec, and much needed power F Slafkovsky. I'd certainly put Nazar in the group after that, along with Gauthier and Yurov.

EDIT: I have Nazar ranked at #5. Thought I should add that.

 

[StevenToddIves]

There's enough talent in the top 10 of this class that I'm not overly worried about where the Devils fall. Sure, I'm a huge Jiricek fan and I'd rather be in the top 5 but between Wright, Slafkovsky, Nemec, Jiricek, Cooley, Lambert, Savoie, Nazar, Lekkermaki, Kemmell, etc... there's not really much separation in terms of skill and talent in that group of players and I wouldn't be surprised if the best player out of that group is one that's selected outside the top 5.

I'm going to stick to my guns and say that if the Devils miss out on Jiricek/Nemec/Slafkovsky, the target is very likely to be Cutter Gauthier.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I don't see how Wright or Slafkovsky have cemented themselves as a tier above the others. Slafkovsky's offensive game is very much a work in progress and Wright's having an extremely underwhelming draft season for a consensus #1 pick and doesn't possess a single elite tool.

Meanwhile Nemec's easily outpacing Brandt Clarke's draft season in the same league, Jiricek's showcasing elite tools on a consistent basis and looking like a potential two way force, Cooley's numbers stack up really well with former USNTDP stars in recent years and showcases some of the best skating in the class, Lambert has some of the best offensive tools in the entire class, Savoie has been an elite performer in the WHL with elite playmaking, Kemmell put up elite numbers for a 1st year draft eligible in Liga.

The odds are better the higher you go up but depending on the draft class this difference can range from extremely wide to barely noticeable and I'd argue with this draft class specifically that the latter is more likely.

I'm going to have to disagree a bit here with certain aspects of this.

1) Wright certainly has elite tools. His shot, his IQ and his two-way game are all tops in the class among forwards. That's three elite tools, with every other tool possible ranging from "plus" to "high end". I'd be shocked if he was not the top overall pick.

2) Though I agree Slafkovsky has not cemented himself as the #2 player in the consensus rankings, he's certainly on an upward trajectory and is a very strong bet to end the season in that spot. Many of the questions you're asking about both Wright and Slafkovsky were topics of discussion in November and December, but both prospects have enjoyed extremely strong finishes to their seasons and have quelled many of these concerns.

3) I agree on Jiricek and Nemec. They're very likely top 5 picks.

4) Cooley is terrific, and his skating is elite. I'd agree with your assessment and say he's the other "most likely" for the top 5.

5) Lambert could fall out of the top 10. He's had a really tough season and there are questions about his two-way dedication, overall team play and compete level. Yes, he's a top talent -- no doubt -- but it takes some serious gumption to take a player with compete questions in the #4-#8 range, especially with other top talents available.

6) Savoie could fall for the obvious questions of size, lack of elite skating, and uncertainty if he can remain at center at the highest levels. There is no doubt he is a tremendous offense force, maybe the top pure offensive player in the draft.

7) After a freakishly hot start, Kemell has come back to earth a bit. Some of that is injury related and no slight on his actual play, and the fact he's a high-compete guy with a good two-way game only helps him. Still, I can't see him going top 5 anymore. I'd say he's a likely pick for the #7-#10 range.

8) We also need to include Nazar, Yurov, Geekie and Gauthier in these discussions of top 10 possibles. Chesley could squeeze in as well, since he offers so much of what NHL scouts like more than draft-rankers, and right now he's the top shut-down defender in the entire draft. Yurov might be more volatile because of the New Russian Factor, but the general consensus still sees him as a top 10 talent. Nazar is a guy I feel is trending upwards, as is Gauthier -- who is the top pure power forward in the draft, and features goal-scoring ability from the wing to rival Kemell and Lekkerimaki.

 

[HBK27]

Well actually depending on how the devils do we might want no OT. The flyers are 2 points back of the Devils and they are tied on the first tiebreaker with 19 Regulation Wins. If the devils lose this weekend and/or Chicago wins to the point where we aren’t too worried about them. We want Philly to win in regulation so that they have the tiebreaker if we end up tied with them.

There’s a good chance by the time that Monday game comes around we will be be either rooting for a regulation Philly win or a Chicago win in any fashion.

Very good point and I love this type of thinking.

Reminds me of a conversation I was having with my kids the other night. We were talking about baseball and my 11 year old mentioned something about how the fewest pitches a pitcher could throw in a full inning is 3, which seemed right. However, my 13 year old said the actual answer is 0, which didn't make sense at first. Then he explained that with the new walk rule you don't have to actually throw any pitches. Theoretically, the pitcher could just walk the bases loaded and then pick off each runner for the 3 outs. Realistically this would never happened, but technically it is correct. Of course, your scenario of Devils fans rooting for a Philly regulation win over Chicago is much, much more realistic.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

 

[StevenToddIves]

Nemec is certainly awesome. It's just a question of whether he or Jiricek will still be there if the Devils are picking in the #5-#7 range.

 

[Shakir ONeal]

Is Gauthier half Swedish?

 

[StevenToddIves]

Is Gauthier half Swedish?

I'm not sure the whole story, so it's probably better to ask @Guttersniped -- but I'm fairly certain his Dad was a hockey player in the Swedish league when Cutter was born. So, yes, Cutter was born in Sweden but I don't think he has any sort of citizenship outside of the US.

 

[Guttersniped]

I'm not sure the whole story, so it's probably better to ask @Guttersniped -- but I'm fairly certain his Dad was a hockey player in the Swedish league when Cutter was born. So, yes, Cutter was born in Sweden but I don't think he has any sort of citizenship outside of the US.

Who me? I think your right and his Dad just played their when he was born which doesn’t mean anything unless Mrs Guenther was a Swedish citizen.

Elite Prospects usually lists duel nationalities and he’s listed as an American.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Nemec is certainly awesome. It's just a question of whether he or Jiricek will still be there if the Devils are picking in the #5-#7 range.

The devils are picking 2nd.

 

[Hisch13r]

Nemec is certainly awesome. It's just a question of whether he or Jiricek will still be there if the Devils are picking in the #5-#7 range.

I think one ends up there at 5. Wright's obviously going top 4. I'm also very confident both Cooley and Slafkovsky go top 4. That leaves a spot for one of the 2 D in the top 4 leaving the other there for 5th. After 5th it gets very dicey.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I think one ends up there at 5. Wright's obviously going top 4. I'm also very confident both Cooley and Slafkovsky go top 4. That leaves a spot for one of the 2 D in the top 4 leaving the other there for 5th. After 5th it gets very dicey.

Agreed 100%

 

[StevenToddIves]

Who me? I think your right and his Dad just played their when he was born which doesn’t mean anything unless Mrs Guenther was a Swedish citizen.

Elite Prospects usually lists duel nationalities and he’s listed as an American.

I just assume you know everything.

 

[Guttersniped]

I just assume you know everything.

Me 75% of the time:

 

[nugg]

If the season ended now, the Devils pick 5th. Wright is the likely #2 pick, and Slafkovsky seems almost a certainty for the top 2 or 3. Cooley would be the other guy most likely to go early, a speedy and skilled C who currently is the consensus #2, though Slafkovsky could very well pass him in the final rankings. Here's a mini-mock for 4/21:

1 ARI Wright
2 MTL Slafkovsky
3 PHI Jiricek
4 SEA Cooley
5 NJ Nemec
6 CLB Lambert
7 OTT Geekie

The wild card here -- as in most scenarios -- is Seattle, as it's too early to accurately grasp their drafting MO and, as an expansion team, they need pretty much everything. I have them taking Cooley, and building out of the middle with a 1/2 of Beniers/Cooley. But they would also be a threat to take Nemec, as their future franchise 1D, which would leave the Devils in quite a lurch.

1 ARI Wright
2 MTL Slafkovsky
3 PHI Jiricek
4 SEA Nemec
5 NJ ???

In this scenario, I would try to trade down to the #7/#8/#9 range -- but Fitzgerald has proven adverse to this type of move. But my preference would be to trade down and then draft Cutter Gauthier, who is the best pure power forward in the draft and also one of the best handful of goal-scorers. The Devils are desperate for interior/power forwards and Gauthier would fill this need while offering the requisite skill to play with top players like Hughes and Bratt. This was Gauthier's actual role with the US-NTDP this year, as both Cooley and Nazar played their best hockey with Gauthier creating boat-loads of room and chaos on their line.

Unfortunately in the 5th slot pre-lottery, they have higher odds of picking 6th I believe. All depending on if a team with lesser odds by some chance wins a lottery spot. I think this is still the case, though it's only 2 lottery winners instead of 3.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Ottawa won tonight and Seattle lost.
How the standings look and the desired results for Saturday’s game in order of importance.

26. Ottawa 67 (4 games)
27. Chicago 63 (4 games)
28. New Jersey 61 (5 games)
29. Philadelphia 59 (4 games)
30. Seattle 58 (5 games)

Saturday:
CAR win vs NJD
CHI win vs SJS
SEA win vs DAL
OTT win vs MTL

Ottawa is almost certainly out of reach of us now. We would have to get 7 of our last 10 points without them getting a single point in their final 4 games. Or obviously we get 8 and they get no more than 1 and so on. We have to get 7 more points than them in the final games to pass. Almost certainly not gonna happen.

A loss by us and wins by Chicago and Seattle would be huge tomorrow.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Ottawa won tonight and Seattle lost.
How the standings look and the desired results for Saturday’s game in order of importance.

26. Ottawa 67 (4 games)
27. Chicago 63 (4 games)
28. New Jersey 61 (5 games)
29. Philadelphia 59 (4 games)
30. Seattle 58 (5 games)

Saturday:
CAR win vs NJD
CHI win vs SJS
SEA win vs DAL
OTT win vs MTL

Ottawa is almost certainly out of reach of us now. We would have to get 7 of our last 10 points without them getting a single point in their final 4 games. Or obviously we get 8 and they get no more than 1 and so on. We have to get 7 more points than them in the final games to pass. Almost certainly not gonna happen.

A loss by us and wins by Chicago and Seattle would be huge tomorrow.

Huge day for the Devils lottery-watchers.

A regulation loss by the Devils combined with wins by Seattle and Chicago almost ends the Blackhawks' chances to "overtake" the Devils in the lottery standings, while giving the Devils a legit chance to finish with the 3rd overall pick.

Conversely, a Devils win combined with regulation losses by the Kraken and Hawks would knock the Devils almost completely out of the race for not only the #3 slot, but also #4 -- while dropping the Devils "behind" Chicago for the #5/ #6 overall pick.

To give an idea of what this means?

Finishing #3 would be huge. At #3, the Devils most likely draft position would be #4 and the furthest they could fall would be #5. This would virtually guarantee the Devils getting one of their three obvious targets in Slafkovsky/Jiricek/Nemec.

Conversely, the #6 pick would give the Devils the most likely picking slot at #7. This would virtually guarantee the Devils have no chance at these three players.

Right now, the order stands like this:

1 ARI -- need everything, top need is for a top 6 C
2 MTL -- need several things, top needs are 1st line LW and top 6 C & RW
3 SEA -- need everything, top needs are top 6 C, first line wings and first pairing D
4 PHI -- need everything except RW & LD, top needs are RD and top 6 C
5 NJ -- need RD, power Fs and depth C, top need is clearly RD
6 CLB (CHI pick) -- need top 6 C, D and LW, top need is center

Finishing "ahead" of arch-rival Philadelphia remains of utmost importance, as both of our likely targets are Jiricek, then Nemec. Right now we have two points on Philly with a game in hand, and a regulation loss to Carolina eliminates the game in hand.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Start Gilles . Absolutely want one of the RHD (after Slaf) .
Remaining schedule looks decent for us. A few of the teams we need to win have some easy matchups.
If I can get some time , I will post the teams we are in a “race” with to the bottom and their schedules.

Lol you got your wish, Gilles is starting.

Edit:
Oh and Bratts out

 

[Eggtimer]

Lol you got your wish, Gilles is starting.

Edit:
Oh and Bratts out

Help us baby Jesus .

 

[nugg]

And we get a loser point. Yay!

 

[StevenToddIves]

And we get a loser point. Yay!

That's just costly. You hate to root against your team, but getting a point vs. Carolina really hurts.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Here's a mini-mock after the Devils unfortunately pick up another loser point.

1 ARI Wright
2 MTL Slafkovsky
3 SEA Nemec
4 PHI Jiricek
5 NJ ???

There is a big question of what the Devils do in this situation, if their top 3 targets of Slafkovsky/Nemec/Jiricek are all gone.

Of course, the sensible thing would be to trade down. Teams will want to move up here for Logan Cooley, without any doubt. Both Detroit and Columbus have center as their foremost draft need, while Ottawa, Buffalo and San Jose also have needs up the middle.

The problem is, Fitzgerald has not shown the ability to trade down on draft day, which takes a certain type of savvy and guts. He had the chance to trade down before both the Mukhamadullin and Stillman picks, and he did not pull the trigger.

And yet, in this scenario, the smartest move would be to trade down, accrue more assets, and take a top forward who could slip a bit later (Nazar? Gauthier?) or a much needed RD in Ryan Chesley, who is the clear-cut #3 D in the draft after Jiricek and Nemec.

So, how about this? The Devils trade down with Detroit, who leap-frogs Columbus to get Cooley at #5. The Devils then get the Wings #8 overall pick and their 2nd rounder, currently #40 overall. So:

1 ARI Wright
2 MTL Slafkovsky
3 SEA Nemec
4 PHI Jiricek
5 DET Cooley
6 CLB Geekie
7 OTT Gauthier
8 NJ Nazar

Then, with two picks in the 2nd round (#37 and #40), the Devils can take a pair of RDs there:
#37 RD Sam Rinzel
#40 RD Noah Warren

Or, the Devils can take Ryan Chesley at #8, and then take a high-end F and middle six C with their 2nd round picks.
#37 Alexander Perevalov
#40 Bryce McConnell-Barker

Either way, I think a trade down strategy would benefit the Devils if they miss out on Jiricek and Nemec which, unfortunately, is looking more and more likely. I give Tom Fitzgerald high overall marks thus far as Devils GM, but his draft strategies -- as I've stated at length -- need to be improved. And I feel this year the Devils need to strategize for a trade-down scenario if their pick falls out of the top 4, and especially if it falls to 6 or 7.

 

[Billdo]

Here's a mini-mock after the Devils unfortunately pick up another loser point.

1 ARI Wright
2 MTL Slafkovsky
3 SEA Nemec
4 PHI Jiricek
5 NJ ???

There is a big question of what the Devils do in this situation, if their top 3 targets of Slafkovsky/Nemec/Jiricek are all gone.

Of course, the sensible thing would be to trade down. Teams will want to move up here for Logan Cooley, without any doubt. Both Detroit and Columbus have center as their foremost draft need, while Ottawa, Buffalo and San Jose also have needs up the middle.

The problem is, Fitzgerald has not shown the ability to trade down on draft day, which takes a certain type of savvy and guts. He had the chance to trade down before both the Mukhamadullin and Stillman picks, and he did not pull the trigger.

And yet, in this scenario, the smartest move would be to trade down, accrue more assets, and take a top forward who could slip a bit later (Nazar? Gauthier?) or a much needed RD in Ryan Chesley, who is the clear-cut #3 D in the draft after Jiricek and Nemec.

So, how about this? The Devils trade down with Detroit, who leap-frogs Columbus to get Cooley at #5. The Devils then get the Wings #8 overall pick and their 2nd rounder, currently #40 overall. So:

1 ARI Wright
2 MTL Slafkovsky
3 SEA Nemec
4 PHI Jiricek
5 DET Cooley
6 CLB Geekie
7 OTT Gauthier
8 NJ Nazar

Then, with two picks in the 2nd round (#37 and #40), the Devils can take a pair of RDs there:
#37 RD Sam Rinzel
#40 RD Noah Warren

Or, the Devils can take Ryan Chesley at #8, and then take a high-end F and middle six C with their 2nd round picks.
#37 Alexander Perevalov
#40 Bryce McConnell-Barker

Either way, I think a trade down strategy would benefit the Devils if they miss out on Jiricek and Nemec which, unfortunately, is looking more and more likely. I give Tom Fitzgerald high overall marks thus far as Devils GM, but his draft strategies -- as I've stated at length -- need to be improved. And I feel this year the Devils need to strategize for a trade-down scenario if their pick falls out of the top 4, and especially if it falls to 6 or 7.

Would behoove the Devils to perhaps throw Smith and 5 to Seattle to move up to three? Is that enough? Is that too much?