I was rewatching the Scouching video on Holtz last night and he also said that Holtz has a pretty good motor in the NZ/OZ and will apply pressure to guys and hunt down pucks. In zone D was a mess though.
Also 83% of the shots he tracked from Holtz were coming from low danger areas which was a pretty big cause for concern. The little I’ve of him this year he seems to be getting more medium and high danger looks. I don’t even think he needs to be a high danger king. If he can hang out as a guy who gets a ton of just medium danger looks at 5v5 then the skill is the limit playing alongside the playmaking talent we have.
These are all aspects which pure scorers learn in development. Scouching is ok but I feel he's never played or coached hockey at any level because he has a propensity to assume players are static and doesn't foresee little keys which may unlock aspects of their games.
At lower levels, there's always open ice at the top of the circles, and players like Holtz with elite shots can just sort of hang there and wait to unleash the howitzer. At higher levels, these "pure scorer" types must find their own ways to create soft areas. It's not the same as an interior forward always funneling to the net and banging pucks home -- you literally
want Holtz to fade out to the perimeter sometimes and just wind it up. His shot is good enough, he's the rare player who can score from anywhere and the "high danger/low danger" thing is less relevant with a player such as him.
The best goal scorer in the league right now is Auston Matthews and his best weapon is that he
is the weapon -- he can score so many different ways he's virtually impossible to contain. Holtz is not that player of course, but the fact that he's also a very good (and underrated, don't ask me why) playmaker and puck handler will afford him a bit more time and space. When you combine this with the fact he'll get a ton of ice time with elite playmakers like Hughes or Bratt -- well it's not impossible to see this kid having 40+ goal upside. All he needs to do is find ways to find soft ice, and with Hughsie or Bratt the puck will find him. Where that ice is? Well it's almost immaterial.
I like Scouching, but he is what he is -- he has his mathematical idea of hockey and he gets blind spots when looking outside of it. But I would agree with you that a medium-danger chance for him is a high danger chance for pretty much anyone else, and with the NJ playmaking talent he'll get plenty of opportunities to wind it up anywhere.