Speculation: 2022 Off-Season | Dethroned: What next? - Part 2

[Maelmoor]

The obvious and initial reaction to what happened yesterday is naturally skepticisms. "We are way worse now", "Too long, too much money" etc.

Best way to tackle such feelings is to give them so good thought.

How much bad are we now compared to when we won the cup?

We cannot deny that we lost some good players and the team isn't as strong as a couple of years ago..but, with that said, just look at the team we have. Which cores would you swap ours with? Vasy, Hedman, Kuch, Point and Stamkos? It's definitely one of the best core group of players we ever had and they are either in their prime or at least still a few more good years in them.

Now, what for a support does these guys have, since the core has not changed? Obviously this is were we have lost some good players. I would still say that our third and fourth line are definitely good enough for a cup contender. We got role players to help out with PK, to cycle the puck, to play physical etc and to provide some scoring depth.

Biggest question mark is the second line. Will see the regular season or playoff Killer from the last season? Can Cirelli add a bit more offense to his game (when back) and can Hagel prove the doubters wrong? While losing guys such as Palat and McD hurts, it does give the opportunity for others to step up. I have feeling that some of the "new" guys will be positive surprises, and I definitely know to not judge players too early.

Cirelli, Serg and Cernak are 24, 24 and 25, their contracts will cover their prime and they are not locked up until 40 or so unlike some other deals around the league. They've all proven to be key contributors for us and if they just can remain healthy I've no doubt these deals will look good in a few years.

The more I think about it, the more positive I get! In a cap era, to keep this awesome core together for so long is a true privilege. Really excited for the next season, if we look at our division, none of the top teams got stronger, sure, teams like Ottawa and Detroit are better and will be tougher to play against but I like our chances in the playoffs against any of those teams.

 

[Wester]

The obvious and initial reaction to what happened yesterday is naturally skepticisms. "We are way worse now", "Too long, too much money" etc.

Best way to tackle such feelings is to give them so good thought.

How much bad are we now compared to when we won the cup?

We cannot deny that we lost some good players and the team isn't as strong as a couple of years ago..but, with that said, just look at the team we have. Which cores would you swap ours with? Vasy, Hedman, Kuch, Point and Stamkos? It's definitely one of the best core group of players we ever had and they are either in their prime or at least still a few more good years in them.

Now, what for a support does these guys have, since the core has not changed? Obviously this is were we have lost some good players. I would still say that our third and fourth line are definitely good enough for a cup contender. We got role players to help out with PK, to cycle the puck, to play physical etc and to provide some scoring depth.

Biggest question mark is the second line. Will see the regular season or playoff Killer from the last season? Can Cirelli add a bit more offense to his game (when back) and can Hagel prove the doubters wrong? While losing guys such as Palat and McD hurts, it does give the opportunity for others to step up. I have feeling that some of the "new" guys will be positive surprises, and I definitely know to not judge players too early.

Cirelli, Serg and Cernak are 24, 24 and 25, their contracts will cover their prime and they are not locked up until 40 or so unlike some other deals around the league. They've all proven to be key contributors for us and if they just can remain healthy I've no doubt these deals will look good in a few years.

The more I think about it, the more positive I get! In a cap era, to keep this awesome core together for so long is a true privilege. Really excited for the next season, if we look at our division, none of the top teams got stronger, sure, teams like Ottawa and Detroit are better and will be tougher to play against but I like our chances in the playoffs against any of those teams.

Yea everyone is acting like we don't have one of the best cores in the league. Sergachev deal sure looks rough now, but when the cap goes up by like 10 million, it will look okay. Also as someone said next year he would have had arbitration.

 

[Felonious Python]

Palat signing in NJ broke Twitter.

 

[Peacefool]

What about Hagel in Pallys place? On top line. In playoffs he showed his grit (with broken foot!!) He created chances for himself and others, he was very fast (with f***g broken foot!!) He was 20+ goal scorer with Kane and DebrinCat (Kuch,Stammer) I think at least he should get chance at top 6. And with all chances he had, if he fixes ending problem, he will be really good at top 6
Kuch-Stamkos-Hagel
Names-Point-Colton(?) Killer,Paul (all of them can be good in top6)
Killer-Cirelli-Paul
Bus line.
3rd line looks good whoever u put there, Bus line looks slow..SLOW,need to do something there.
Also lets not forget about SYR guys. Maybe some of them can break NHL like Colton,Cirelli,Point did,ok maybe not so good as they but be better than ABB.
Yes we became weaker, but we dont became weak.

 

[DMB06]

Yea everyone is acting like we don't have one of the best cores in the league. Sergachev deal sure looks rough now, but when the cap goes up by like 10 million, it will look okay. Also as someone said next year he would have had arbitration.

The primary issue is outside of our top guys, Stammer/Kuch/Point, we don't have consistent offense anywhere else in the lineup. That puts a lot of pressure on those guys, and makes us a very top heavy team. Palat was basically in a tier of his own. We have our top guys on one tier, Palat was next (factoring in both offense and defense), and then everyone else. Palat is now gone, so our depth scoring is now reliant on players who have never provided offense consistently. That's quite a gamble to take, and it all has to be done minus one of our best defenders in McDonagh.

I'm focusing on two players, Colton and Hagel. I believe much or maybe even most of our success will hinge on what these two players accomplish this season. If they're dreadful offensively, as Colton was the final two playoff series and how Hagel has been his entire tenure with us, then we're in trouble. My personal expectation for them is 45 goals combined, lets say 25 from Colton and 20 from Hagel. Giving up two prospects and two 1st round picks is typically reserved for maybe not elite players, but definitely very good players. Hagel cannot be just a decent defensive player with very limited offense and have it be considered a good move by JBB. For what was given up for him, Hagel needs to provide much more than he has, those two 1st round picks are desperately needed by this team right now as our prospect pool isn't exactly elite. 45 goals between those two guys, that needs to be their floor.

For Sergachev, 8.5m is reserved for elite defensemen in this league. You either have to be well above average offensively or defensively (or both) and he is neither. To earn that 8.5 he needs to drastically reduce his turnovers, play the best defense he has in his career, and consistently hit 50+ points (his career high is 40, his first year with us, all other seasons in the 30's). Otherwise he's a 5.5-6.5m defenseman getting paid 8.5m.

I guess the key question is, do you want to rely on Hagel/Colton/Names/Paul/Killorn/Bellemare/Perry/Maroon as your supporting cast to win you a Cup, with Cole and Myers playing significant minutes for you on defense?

I don't think people are overreacting, I think we're a much less talented team than we were two weeks ago. It all depends on whether or not certain players elevate their games, because it's a requirement for them to if we're going to be legit contenders.

 

[ThunderRoad]

Yea everyone is acting like we don't have one of the best cores in the league. Sergachev deal sure looks rough now, but when the cap goes up by like 10 million, it will look okay. Also as someone said next year he would have had arbitration.

Sure can hope but I would be more cautious about significant cap increases occurring soon. I've seen the 26/27 season being the first where the cap might show a larger increase (and not the 1 million small bumps when the players are caught up) but who knows what can happen between then and now with the economy the way it is heading. 26/27 is already heading into 4th year of this deal. Hedman's deal is up the year before - if he's still an elite defender which we are certainly hoping for, what kind of boost is he going to ask for? He'll be 34 so fewer years but maybe he wants to cash in since he actually took a team friendly deal even though he had proven he was elite at the time.

And maybe this deal with Sergachev would have been what was agreed upon - but why did it have to be now and not sometime during the season (before arbitration) just to make sure he is effectively taking on the new responsibilities he is going to have to with no sheltering. And he shows management he can handle it being a top pairing guy. Could even have discussed these contract parameters with him now and said Tampa will agree to this contract if you meet your performance targets by X date.

 

[Fabiobest]

The obvious and initial reaction to what happened yesterday is naturally skepticisms. "We are way worse now", "Too long, too much money" etc.

Best way to tackle such feelings is to give them so good thought.

How much bad are we now compared to when we won the cup?

We cannot deny that we lost some good players and the team isn't as strong as a couple of years ago..but, with that said, just look at the team we have. Which cores would you swap ours with? Vasy, Hedman, Kuch, Point and Stamkos? It's definitely one of the best core group of players we ever had and they are either in their prime or at least still a few more good years in them.

Now, what for a support does these guys have, since the core has not changed? Obviously this is were we have lost some good players. I would still say that our third and fourth line are definitely good enough for a cup contender. We got role players to help out with PK, to cycle the puck, to play physical etc and to provide some scoring depth.

Biggest question mark is the second line. Will see the regular season or playoff Killer from the last season? Can Cirelli add a bit more offense to his game (when back) and can Hagel prove the doubters wrong? While losing guys such as Palat and McD hurts, it does give the opportunity for others to step up. I have feeling that some of the "new" guys will be positive surprises, and I definitely know to not judge players too early.

Cirelli, Serg and Cernak are 24, 24 and 25, their contracts will cover their prime and they are not locked up until 40 or so unlike some other deals around the league. They've all proven to be key contributors for us and if they just can remain healthy I've no doubt these deals will look good in a few years.

The more I think about it, the more positive I get! In a cap era, to keep this awesome core together for so long is a true privilege. Really excited for the next season, if we look at our division, none of the top teams got stronger, sure, teams like Ottawa and Detroit are better and will be tougher to play against but I like our chances in the playoffs against any of those teams.

Thank you for this post.
I needed it.
#BePositive and #DefendOurColors

 

[Sky04]

If I'm Hedman or Stamkos I ain't looking for a discount when no one else is taking one. Could see one of if not both of them gone in 2-3 years.

 

[Todd1a]

Palat signing in NJ broke Twitter.

Signs with a team that isn’t a contender?

 

[Byrddog]

Signs with a team that isn’t a contender?

Signs with a team that can pay him. And the Devils will be better.

 

[Fabiobest]

If I'm Hedman or Stamkos I ain't looking for a discount when no one else is taking one. Could see one of if not both of them gone in 2-3 years.

Cernak contract is fine.
Cirelli's one is good as well. We're talking about a Selke candidate, so one of the best player in the League in his position/role. He's good to play both in our zone and in the offensive one. With 2 shoulders "broken", it's quite hard to win the faceofs and to score goals.
Sergachev's salary looks high right now but if he becomes the #1 Dman in our team, and he will step up, that contract will be worth.
Stamkos and Hedman will be at the end of their careers and not at beginning of their prime time. So the situation will be completely different. I hope their take a huge discount to stay with us.

Vladdy and Cole asked for a quite big salary only because they accepted a 1 year deal. Kubalik and guys like him are not here for this reason.

 

[Lightning1995]

Cernak contract is fine.
Cirelli's one is good as well. We're talking about a Selke candidate, so one of the best player in the League in his position/role. He's good to play both in our zone and in the offensive one. With 2 shoulders "broken", it's quite hard to win the faceofs and to score goals.
Sergachev's salary looks high right now but if he becomes the #1 Dman in our team, and he will step up, that contract will be worth.
Stamkos and Hedman will be at the end of their careers and not at beginning of their prime time. So the situation will be completely different. I hope their take a huge discount to stay with us.

Vladdy and Cole asked for a quite big salary only because they accepted a 1 year deal. Kubalik and guys like him are not here for this reason.

The Tampa discount days are ova

 

[ThunderRoad]

Signs with a team that isn’t a contender?

 

[Fabiobest]

The Tampa discount days are ova

Why?
Because almost all these contracts are fair...?

 

[RussianGuyovich]

Signs with a team that isn’t a contender?

the irony of perennial playoff performer signing with a team destined to miss the playoffs.

 

[Coopers Gum]

Why?
Because almost all these contracts are fair...?

You think serg making more than hedman and as much as stamkos is fair? Correct me if I’m wrong, but sergachev is now our highest paid defenseman. Does he play like our best defenseman every night?

In any case, those two I just mentioned are franchise players. You don’t give supporting cast members franchise player money. Sergachev has not shown he is worth the amount of money he will be making.

Besides that fact, hedman and stamkos could have commanded much more from any other team in the league. They took discounts (as well as kucherov) to keep this team competitive. Us handing out 8.5 mil to players like sergachev, while dealing players like McDonagh and shedding players like Palat, will not keep us competitive.

 

[RussianGuyovich]

You think serg making more than hedman and as much as stamkos is fair? Correct me if I’m wrong, but sergachev is now our highest paid defenseman. Does he play like our best defenseman every night?

In any case, those two I just mentioned are franchise players. You don’t give supporting cast members franchise player money. Sergachev has not shown he is worth the amount of money he will be making.

Besides that fact, hedman and stamkos could have commanded much more from any other team in the league. They took discounts (as well as kucherov) to keep this team competitive. Us handing out 8.5 mil to players like sergachev, while dealing players like McDonagh and shedding players like Palat, will not keep us competitive.

sergechev did not cost us palat and McD tho. he got a 3.7m raise, which kicks in after next year. ]]and yeah, absolutely you kick out McD and palat for serge.

stamkos signed his contract six years ago and it's not relevant to current contract signings. same with hedman. itd be like complaining that the neighbor bought his house in 2016 for $300,000 so thats what you should be able to buy a new house for now.

 

[Byrddog]

The primary issue is outside of our top guys, Stammer/Kuch/Point, we don't have consistent offense anywhere else in the lineup. That puts a lot of pressure on those guys, and makes us a very top heavy team. Palat was basically in a tier of his own. We have our top guys on one tier, Palat was next (factoring in both offense and defense), and then everyone else. Palat is now gone, so our depth scoring is now reliant on players who have never provided offense consistently. That's quite a gamble to take, and it all has to be done minus one of our best defenders in McDonagh.

I'm focusing on two players, Colton and Hagel. I believe much or maybe even most of our success will hinge on what these two players accomplish this season. If they're dreadful offensively, as Colton was the final two playoff series and how Hagel has been his entire tenure with us, then we're in trouble. My personal expectation for them is 45 goals combined, lets say 25 from Colton and 20 from Hagel. Giving up two prospects and two 1st round picks is typically reserved for maybe not elite players, but definitely very good players. Hagel cannot be just a decent defensive player with very limited offense and have it be considered a good move by JBB. For what was given up for him, Hagel needs to provide much more than he has, those two 1st round picks are desperately needed by this team right now as our prospect pool isn't exactly elite. 45 goals between those two guys, that needs to be their floor.

For Sergachev, 8.5m is reserved for elite defensemen in this league. You either have to be well above average offensively or defensively (or both) and he is neither. To earn that 8.5 he needs to drastically reduce his turnovers, play the best defense he has in his career, and consistently hit 50+ points (his career high is 40, his first year with us, all other seasons in the 30's). Otherwise he's a 5.5-6.5m defenseman getting paid 8.5m.

I guess the key question is, do you want to rely on Hagel/Colton/Names/Paul/Killorn/Bellemare/Perry/Maroon as your supporting cast to win you a Cup, with Cole and Myers playing significant minutes for you on defense?

I don't think people are overreacting, I think we're a much less talented team than we were two weeks ago. It all depends on whether or not certain players elevate their games, because it's a requirement for them to if we're going to be legit contenders.

Agree you can not move forward by subtracting. While Colton shows sparks his success has came in the bottom 6 if he is in the top two lines playing tougher lines I’m not sure he’s that guy. Hagel I’m afraid is going to be a big disappointment excelling in Chicago these days is not very difficult. And a 20 goal smaller guy only begs of adding a little grit to his line. Perhaps a 3rd line like Hagel- Perry and pick a center. The guy that better step up his scoring is Cirelli Killorn was hobbled the entire playoffs when Stammer moved up.

While I can be in the I like the core camp it’s pretty dang hard slicing the bottom 9 together to be productive. Chemistry is a thing right now they can put together a 1st line and a 4th line the other two are just challenged. And from all the JBB praise over the last couple years were now going to see if he can build a team around a all star core that is starting to age outside of Point and Vasi. Those who have bitched and moaned about Sergi the last couple years gotta get behind him now. Just as I have to hope Cirelli has more offense in him than I think he does.

This is a second year of losing goals and the outlook for replacing them is weaker this year.

 

[These Are The Days]

If I'm Hedman or Stamkos I ain't looking for a discount when no one else is taking one. Could see one of if not both of them gone in 2-3 years.

Least we'll have Serg and Cirelli for 700 years.

 

[Coopers Gum]

sergechev did not cost us palat and McD tho. he got a 3.7m raise, which kicks in after next year. ]]and yeah, absolutely you kick out McD and palat for serge.

No you don’t. No way you do. What do you think stamkos and hedman and whoever else think right now? Right after a finals loss, stamkos said we aren’t done. JBB seems to think we are. This roster will not go far in the playoffs. We could have kept our solid players and worried about our future later, like we have been doing the last few years. Showing our good players the door is something you do when you are rebuilding, not contending for a cup.

As sky mentioned, if I’m stamkos and hedman, I’m pissed off I left money on the table if I’m not going to be on a competitive team anymore.

 

[Hoek]

If I'm Hedman or Stamkos I ain't looking for a discount when no one else is taking one. Could see one of if not both of them gone in 2-3 years.

Lol cmon. Malkin was much more personally insulted and stayed with the Pens. These guys aren't uprooting their lives over some invented slight. They got paid just as much or more when accounting for percentage of the cap at the time and inflation.

 

[RussianGuyovich]

No you don’t. No way you do. What do you think stamkos and hedman and whoever else think right now? Right after a finals loss, stamkos said we aren’t done. JBB seems to think we are. This roster will not go far in the playoffs. We could have kept our solid players and worried about our future later, like we have been doing the last few years. Showing our good players the door is something you do when you are rebuilding, not contending for a cup.

As sky mentioned, if I’m stamkos and hedman, I’m pissed off I left money on the table if I’m not going to be on a competitive team anymore.

i can guarantee you that they are celebrating with serge that he's getting paid.

we all can sit here in our posting thrones crying forever that these contracts will handcuff the team and reduce it to mediocrity, but they are human beings, and are absolutely rooting for each others success.

 

[Coopers Gum]

i can guarantee you that they are celebrating with serge that he's getting paid.

Well good for him, but our perennial Norris defenseman doesn’t even make as much as him, and it lowers the chances the team overall is competitive.

 

[The Macho King]

You think serg making more than hedman and as much as stamkos is fair? Correct me if I’m wrong, but sergachev is now our highest paid defenseman. Does he play like our best defenseman every night?

In any case, those two I just mentioned are franchise players. You don’t give supporting cast members franchise player money. Sergachev has not shown he is worth the amount of money he will be making.

Besides that fact, hedman and stamkos could have commanded much more from any other team in the league. They took discounts (as well as kucherov) to keep this team competitive. Us handing out 8.5 mil to players like sergachev, while dealing players like McDonagh and shedding players like Palat, will not keep us competitive.

What was the cap when Hedman and Stamkos signed?

Stamkos the cap was like 71 million. When Hedman signed it was like 73 when the contract went into effect?

Saying "Sergachev makes more than players who were signed six years ago" doesn't really say shit.

And McDonagh and Palat are both over 30 (McDonagh very much so). Realize that aging curves make it likely that they stop being positive value players sooner rather than later.

 

[Coopers Gum]

What was the cap when Hedman and Stamkos signed?

Stamkos the cap was like 71 million. When Hedman signed it was like 73 when the contract went into effect?

Saying "Sergachev makes more than players who were signed six years ago" doesn't really say shit.

And McDonagh and Palat are both over 30 (McDonagh very much so). Realize that aging curves make it likely that they stop being positive value players sooner rather than later.

You think McDonagh and Palat were gonna fall off cliffs this upcoming season? It’s not a vacuum where you can only have good young players. Yeah, we had some aging vets. But it’s not like they were a net negative on the team. Let’s ask this: next season, if we added a defenseman like Palat or McDonagh at the trade deadline, do you think we would be better equipped for a deep run? If the answer is yes, I seriously think we are making mistakes right now.

I totally understand keeping youth around. But when it undercuts the competitiveness of the team and harms our chances of winning the cup, that’s when you are just making foolish moves. With taht logic, should we jettison stamkos and hedman as soon as they get to their mid 30s? If they were in their mid 30s right now, would it be a good idea to trade them? Of course not.

Look, all I’m saying is that our perhaps most inconsistent defenseman is making more money than possibly the best defenseman in the league. And that we are no longer cup contenders with getting rid of McDonagh and Palat.