Speculation: 2022 Off-Season | Dethroned: What next? - Part 2

[These Are The Days]

Just need to make the playoffs...we won'y know until then.

We looked downright awful at times this year and made the finals.

Playoffs or bust

That's a fair enough assessment in that we won't know anything about this team until the post season. Last year was pretty close to the same deal

 

[Fabiobest]

That's a fair enough assessment in that we won't know anything about this team until the post season. Last year was pretty close to the same deal

Last year, since the outdoor game, we were horrible in the regular season.
And, in the playoffs, we played without consistency...but despite all we were 2 OT goals (a couple of calls...) far from winning it all.
We have an offseason to spend...a trade deadline to see what happens. A very good GM that will have the possibility to fill a gap in the roster if we need to.
No time to worry right now.

 

[Rschmitz]

So much going on in this thread.

In the calculus behind Sergachev’s contract it makes sense that we are buying UFA years in his prime so his AAV goes up, I have no issue with that.

The issue is I feel like that is reserved for players who are already performing at or near their maximum potential, at his number and the risk we take on with 8 years, the inclination is that he is already or very close to being a ~9m AAV defenseman.

So much risk with this contract, Sergachev is easily going to be the most disliked Bolt going forward unless he takes major strides quickly. In a different market I would have major concerns about his ability to handle the pressure

 

[RussianGuyovich]

So much risk with this contract, Sergachev is easily going to be the most disliked Bolt going forward unless he takes major strides quickly. In a different market I would have major concerns about his ability to handle the pressure

Just lmao if you think he wasn’t already persona non grata here.

 

[Rschmitz]

Just lmao if you think he wasn’t already persona non grata here.

Yeah, but we could a level of it that could make Matt Carle look like an endearing folk hero

 

[Felonious Python]

 

[OffBy1]

The issue is I feel like that is reserved for players who are already performing at or near their maximum potential, at his number and the risk we take on with 8 years, the inclination is that he is already or very close to being a ~9m AAV defenseman.

So much risk with this contract, Sergachev is easily going to be the most disliked Bolt going forward unless he takes major strides quickly. In a different market I would have major concerns about his ability to handle the pressure

Succinctly said. I'm a Sergachev fan, not a hater. I understand he can continue to improve defensively with each year's additional experience, and if he's able to bring back the offense he showed in his rookie year without taking a step back defensively, the 8.5 wouldn't seem like too much a stretch. Those are just some big IFs to commit 8 years to. If he gets more power play time from Hedman, his offense will go up from that alone, as long as the power play produces consistently with him.

The one I have trouble seeing grow into or validating their contract is Cirelli. He's not shown me signs that he can be any more than he's been offensively. And for a defensive center he's not good on faceoffs. If he scores 20+ a couple times, and almost more importantly, improves on his faceoffs, that would help. His dreadful .36 points per game in the playoffs also needs to greatly improve is he's really going to be the 2C that gets us back into the cup finals. But I believe in Serge's growth more than Cirelli.

We also have too many centers. To me the lineup is better if we had traded Cirelli for a 4-5 mil winger and just gone with Point - Stamkos - Paul as our top three centers. Colton looks more like the heir to Stamkos' 2C in two years than Cirelli as he had 22 goals in his first full season here. The lineup we've been going with has two top six forwards out of position - Cirelli at 2C when he should be 3C and Stamkos on wing. And now we're paying even more to do that.

 

[DFC]

So much going on in this thread.

In the calculus behind Sergachev’s contract it makes sense that we are buying UFA years in his prime so his AAV goes up, I have no issue with that.

The issue is I feel like that is reserved for players who are already performing at or near their maximum potential, at his number and the risk we take on with 8 years, the inclination is that he is already or very close to being a ~9m AAV defenseman.

So much risk with this contract, Sergachev is easily going to be the most disliked Bolt going forward unless he takes major strides quickly. In a different market I would have major concerns about his ability to handle the pressure

That's where I'm at too. I don't like paying guys before we've seen them do what we're paying them for, which we've never done in the past.

I think the AAV rising applies more to the Cirelli contract. Assuming he can still shut down the best players in the league 5 years from now, his contract will be worth every penny and then some. Any offense that develops in his game is a bonus. The fact that he can turn the Auston Matthewses and Alex Barkovs of the world into secondary scorers, at best, is worth a lot. I mean, if he were a legit 60-70 point guy, we would be talking Bergeron, and that's just a little too much to expect, and would make him worth Point money. Having Cirelli in the playoffs means, every single night, the other teams' best player is not going to perform like their best player. IMO, there's huge value in that.

 

[DMB06]

So much going on in this thread.

In the calculus behind Sergachev’s contract it makes sense that we are buying UFA years in his prime so his AAV goes up, I have no issue with that.

The issue is I feel like that is reserved for players who are already performing at or near their maximum potential, at his number and the risk we take on with 8 years, the inclination is that he is already or very close to being a ~9m AAV defenseman.

So much risk with this contract, Sergachev is easily going to be the most disliked Bolt going forward unless he takes major strides quickly. In a different market I would have major concerns about his ability to handle the pressure

Agree. You use draft picks for potential, long term contracts should be reserved for achieving that potential.

 

[DFC]

That's a fair enough assessment in that we won't know anything about this team until the post season. Last year was pretty close to the same deal

I don't think that's quite true. I mean, it was pretty easy to see the team was holding back. Same as the year before and the year before that. And then the playoffs roll around and, all three times, they became what they were on paper. 2020 was probably our best team, 2021 was close to as good, and 2022 was a step down but still right there with the best in the league.

This year, on paper, we're not as good. So, even if you can't judge them on the regular season--because, let's face it, the regular season really DOESN'T matter aside from getting in--we can definitely say they've taken another step back. And a pretty big one. The only way to get that back is to have some young guys take big steps forward.

Like, I don't think it's realistic that we can be as good as our cup-winning teams. But we could be as good as last year's team IF, and these are some big ifs, Sergachev gets a lot better, one of the RHDs is a lot better than we expect, and somebody like Ross Colton steps up and takes on a lot more responsibility at both ends of the ice to make up for the loss of Palat (he doesn't have to be as good as Palat; but just a guy we can count on). And then, having Brayden Point back would mean we're probably as good as we were last year, if not a little better. And I think last year's team was definitely good enough to win a cup. But it's a tall order to be on par with that, given some clear downgrades on paper.

 

[Hoek]

The way some people were panicking I'm not so sure it was that easy to see.

But yes on paper this is a downgraded team as of now. I think people are crazy if they honestly didn't expect that though.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Ill say this, as long as we have Hedman, Vasi, and Kucherov, and maybe healthy Point we have a shot. I think we have a solid structure and high end talent to go deep again. Vasi is a wall and Hedman when right is a beast. They can get at it again. I dont know if next year will be it but we can revisit if we are in the playoff race and if we make any changes from there before the deadline. We will know better then.

 

[Todd1a]

Ill say this, as long as we have Hedman, Vasi, and Kucherov, and maybe healthy Point we have a shot. I think we have a solid structure and high end talent to go deep again. Vasi is a wall and Hedman when right is a beast. They can get at it again. I dont know if next year will be it but we can revisit if we are in the playoff race and if we make any changes from there before the deadline. We will know better then.

It’s also good to get some new guys like we did to refresh our roster a bit after a long run

 

[The Gongshow]

We should have gone after DeBrincat.

I think its time to actually start drafting again. Our window is barely ope at this point. We'll be more like Pittsburgh and Washington now. Easily make playoffs, older stars, 1st or 2nd round exits.

When Point is our vet guy and old man Kuch Is like 34 maybe we'll have a squad again

 

[DFC]

The way some people were panicking I'm not so sure it was that easy to see.

But yes on paper this is a downgraded team as of now. I think people are crazy if they honestly didn't expect that though.

Yeah, I mean, we're emotional, and there are times when we think Game 47 of the regular season is a clear indicator of what will happen in the playoffs. The playoffs, of course, are a different animal. But that doesn't mean it's a complete crapshoot. Yes, there's luck involved, and, in part, it's about who gets the least unlucky. But the better your team, the better your chances of surviving the BS the playoffs throws at you. Our team was really good last year, and it was almost, ALMOST, good enough to withstand all the cuts and bruises and sprains and broken bones. The two years before we were so good we didn't even notice.

This coming year, it's like, yeah, if we stay perfectly healthy, and our better opponents get hit by a train, we're still right there in the mix. But in all likelihood we're gonna get hit by a train like everybody else.

I think we have a shot this year, but it's more of a puncher's chance. I expected a step back, but I didn't think it would be this dramatic. I didn't think we would start building for the future without milking this core for everything they're worth. They had at least one or two more runs in them, and maybe they do without Palat and McDonagh, but it's a lot less likely.

I don't like how Detroit and Ottawa got better. I think we are still favorites to make the playoffs but I think we're only an injury or two away from that not being the case. If Hedman misses 20-30 games, I think we get leapfrogged.

 

[gn2007]

So much going on in this thread.

In the calculus behind Sergachev’s contract it makes sense that we are buying UFA years in his prime so his AAV goes up, I have no issue with that.

The issue is I feel like that is reserved for players who are already performing at or near their maximum potential, at his number and the risk we take on with 8 years, the inclination is that he is already or very close to being a ~9m AAV defenseman.

So much risk with this contract, Sergachev is easily going to be the most disliked Bolt going forward unless he takes major strides quickly. In a different market I would have major concerns about his ability to handle the pressure

If serg starts playing 24-25 mins a game and is consistent with 50-60 pts a season. This will be a great deal. More than anything this year many teams d - men stats were beyond inflated.

 

[LightningStrikes]

So on paper we are worse plus we have injuries and fatigue, meanwhile divisional rivals like Ottawa and Detroit got better. It’s over boys!

 

[ccman68]

we are adding brayden point to the team there is no way we have downgraded shit. idk what the panic is about

 

[These Are The Days]

We should have gone after DeBrincat.

I think its time to actually start drafting again. Our window is barely ope at this point. We'll be more like Pittsburgh and Washington now. Easily make playoffs, older stars, 1st or 2nd round exits.

When Point is our vet guy and old man Kuch Is like 34 maybe we'll have a squad again

You're right about the drafting but I think we're gonna do far better than 1st and 2nd round exits. We literally just need a little cap space and we'll reload with a core that's been to the SCF 3 years in a row and went back to back.

At worst we eat a loss this season in not trading the last of what isn't nailed down and see how the playoffs go. We're gonna f*** everyone's day up if we get even an ounce of cap space in the next 2-3 years

 

[Stammertime91]

So on paper we are worse plus we have injuries and fatigue, meanwhile divisional rivals like Ottawa and Detroit got better. It’s over boys!

Florida was sick on paper.

All it took was a Colton last second winner for them to realize they were more horny than hungry.

 

[ThunderRoad]

we are adding brayden point to the team there is no way we have downgraded shit. idk what the panic is about

Well there is no way in the world can claim the defensive unit hasn't taken a step back. We had a real solid top 4, now we have only 3 in which one of those 3 you can bank on missing some time. And then a depth guy that is comfortable with the defense is now out until maybe end of the year leaving the remining depth to be Foote and 2 new guys to the team.

The continuity we used to have on defense was a real plus.

 

[Sky04]

Honestly, we get to game 7 or win the cup with a functioning PP, that is the biggest thing that needs to change this off-season, absolutely choked when it mattered. Kuch, Stamkos and Hedman have gotten so complacent and lazy with their PP movement.

 

[OffBy1]

Honestly, we get to game 7 or win the cup with a functioning PP, that is the biggest thing that needs to change this off-season, absolutely choked when it mattered. Kuch, Stamkos and Hedman have gotten so complacent and lazy with their PP movement.

8.5 mil Sergachev to the rescue!

 

[Rschmitz]

If serg starts playing 24-25 mins a game and is consistent with 50-60 pts a season. This will be a great deal. More than anything this year many teams d - men stats were beyond inflated.

I think Sergachev definitely has the potential to make this deal look good, I am probably the first on this board that pointed it out. Having said that, this is only a good deal if Sergachev plays like a #1, something he's never done. Incredibly risky to hand out the kind of contract we did to someone based entirely on potential. Hopefully it works out, but 8 year deals you typically hand out to lock in some certainty, and we did that to our most inconsistent defenseman.

JBB either looks like a genious or a fool

 

[Lightning1995]

You get 8 years….and you get 8 years…..