Speculation: 2022 Off-Season | Dethroned: What next? - Part 2

[These Are The Days]

Oh Jesus Christ get over yourself, you have no idea what those guys are "thinking". And I highly doubt it's anything like bitterness, I'm sure unlike you and others they have some faith in their GM.

GAHT DAYUM! Dat avi could start a forest fire. Have a like for the comment too

 

[OffBy1]

The thing with Cirelli is that you are sacrificing some points for defense. If you get top 5 Selke defense with 45-50 points it's better than 60 points and poor defense. He can eat the heavy minutes and matchups you don't want the 1C doing. I would like to see him consistently over 50 points myself but if he can win a Selke instead you take that.

This sounds a lot like the description of a good third line center. And good third line centers are important. But you don't want to make a 2nd line center price and commitment for a third line center.

Point only makes 3.2 AAV more than Cirelli now, but he's a similar age, has scored 92 points in a season, has been an all star, and is probably just as good or better defensively than Cirelli. Just seems like too close an AAV and for the SAME number of years for what we've seen out of Cirelli.

 

[The Macho King]

Man Hose is being the reasonable one.

This place is a f***ing parody of sports fans right now. Most successful franchise in the sport over a close to 10 year period with the entire core in their prime and y'all acting like we're going to be in the Bedard lottery. It's really f***ing annoying.

 

[Todd1a]

Man Hose is being the reasonable one.

This place is a f***ing parody of sports fans right now. Most successful franchise in the sport over a close to 10 year period with the entire core in their prime and y'all acting like we're going to be in the Bedard lottery. It's really f***ing annoying.

We’re still a cup contender we will be in the playoffs people need to relax lol

 

[Felonious Python]

We’re still a cup contender we will be in the playoffs people need to relax lol

Names got half a million too much. We're in a rebuild.

 

[TheSchmidt]

I can't believe people are calling Cirelli a 3rd line center. He has his limitations, but sheesh.

But anyways, JBB still needs to pick up another forward for Cirelli when he is on LTIR., a la Fleury for Bogo.

Probably just bring back Riley Nash, but some other options I like are

Riley Sheahan, Sam Gagner, Mathieu Perreault, Tyler Ennis, Sam Steel

 

[OffBy1]

When Hedman signed his 8 year extension, he and Stralman were our top pairing and with Hedman leading the team with 23 minutes a night - 5 minutes more than our 2nd pairing defensemen. He had scored double digit goals three years in a row. His points per game were improving almost every year since his rookie year and he had recent 55 and 47 point seasons, majority of which was even strength scoring.

Serge has had one 40 point season - his rookie year - and played the 2nd most minutes a night at 23 last season (good), but on the third pairing, so they are easier minutes than what Hedman was playing at this point in his career.

Serge is a very good young defensemen, but how can this not be seen as a bigger gamble than we made on Hedman at this point in his career? That's why maybe JB should have fought longer for either less AAV or less years.

Comparing where Stamkos and Point were when they signed their 8 year deals vs Cirelli is going to look even worse.

 

[RussianGuyovich]

When Hedman signed his 8 year extension, he and Stralman were our top pairing and with Hedman leading the team with 23 minutes a night - 5 minutes more than our 2nd pairing defensemen. He had scored double digit goals three years in a row. His points per game were improving almost every year since his rookie year and he had recent 55 and 47 point seasons, majority of which was even strength scoring.

Serge has had one 40 point season - his rookie year - and played the 2nd most minutes a night at 23 last season (good), but on the third pairing, so they are easier minutes than what Hedman was playing at this point in his career.

Serge is a very good young defensemen, but how can this not be seen as a bigger gamble than we made on Hedman at this point in his career? That's why maybe JB should have fought longer for either less AAV or less years.

Comparing where Stamkos and Point were when they signed their 8 year deals vs Cirelli is going to look even worse.

Why do you keep comparing the players. The money isn’t the same but the money value isn’t the same either. You keep doubling down on the same wrong opinions. No one thinks serge is as good or has the potential to be as good as hedman. So just bury that whole dumb argument.

 

[Todd1a]

Why do you keep comparing the players. The money isn’t the same but the money value isn’t the same either. You keep doubling down on the same wrong opinions. No one thinks serge is as good or has the potential to be as good as hedman. So just bury that whole dumb argument.

Boston defenseman got 9.5 AVV mccoy

Sergachev got 8.5 AVV

The market is what it is

 

[Outl4w]

Boston defenseman got 9.5 AVV mccoy

Sergachev got 8.5 AVV

The market is what it is

I think the Sergachev deal is a better . I just hope Celly improves his offensive game. I seem him as a peak of Draper not Bergeon.

 

[OffBy1]

Why do you keep comparing the players.

A little concept called "market value"? It's a big part of how this whole salary cap thing works.

But McAvoy is a better comparable as he's more recent. He has averaged more points a game than Serge - .56 vs .48, has double the career +/- and has been leading his team in minutes per game since 2018-19 season.

Serge at 1 mil less AAV is the better deal?

 

[The Macho King]

I think the Sergachev deal is a better . I just hope Celly improves his offensive game. I seem him as a peak of Draper not Bergeon.

Draper was a 20-30 point player (at most) for most of his career. This is absurd.

 

[HoseEmDown]

This sounds a lot like the description of a good third line center. And good third line centers are important. But you don't want to make a 2nd line center price and commitment for a third line center.

Point only makes 3.2 AAV more than Cirelli now, but he's a similar age, has scored 92 points in a season, has been an all star, and is probably just as good or better defensively than Cirelli. Just seems like too close an AAV and for the SAME number of years for what we've seen out of Cirelli.

Point scored 2 more even strength points than Cirelli did this season. Yes Cirelli played 10 more games than Point did this season. Point scored 92 points 4 seasons ago. Point was a -5 this year while Cirelli was a +15, yes +/- can be a flawed stat but on the same team it's more relevant. Especially when Cirelli gets the tougher matchups typically.

I do think that Cirelli needs to improve his offensive production but I don't want him to sacrifice much defense for that. But if you are going to call him out for being overpaid then you need to for Point. His production has slipped the past few seasons and he is about to be joint highest paid.

 

[ccman68]

we should get yzerman back.. instead of wasting 5 mil on bums like cernak he is giving it to ben chiarot the goat.

 

[RussianGuyovich]

But McAvoy is a better comparable as he's more recent. He has averaged more points a game than Serge - .56 vs .48, has double the career +/- and has been leading his team in minutes per game since 2018-19 season.

Serge at 1 mil less AAV is the better deal?

Yes! Mcavoy is an excellent comparison, and to this point in their careers he is playing slightly better, which is probably why serge got less than mcavoy on the negotiations table. Of course mcavoy is the best defenseman on the bruins by far, so the situations are different.

Is serge a better deal than mcavoy? I don’t know, we will find out in the future (maybe), but it’s fair market value. Which is all anyone is saying. I’m confused by your tactics.

 

[LTIR Trickery]

The way we usually frame contract negotiations is about money vs term. If you get term, the player has a more agreeable AAV. These guys (and Serge in particular) seem to have gotten both without being franchise players.

We also don't know, however, if the projections have the cap going up $20 million once the escrow debt is paid off.

Again, Hedmans contract seems to be the measuring stick for all and that was signed in 2016.

Sergachev himself said he needs to elevate his game to earn this contract. Your claim here is that he's already an 8.5m defenseman. Which is it?

I really don't give a shit how you interpret his words, thats on you. Find me guys on the open market that have playoff experience, production, and minute eating capabilities that he does that you can sign right now. Go for it, i'll wait.

I agree that is a terrible take, but you're the one who came up with it, so pat yourself on the back.

Or course it's a negotiation, but you wouldn't know that from seeing Sergachev emerge with 8.5 mil for 8 years - more than Hedman who he's clearly worse than right now and not by a little. He has a big chasm to bridge to threaten Hedman for the #1 minutes on this team. When Hedman signed that deal, no one was freaking out, you could see he was improving. Sergachev was a third pairing defensemen last year who looked capable of stepping in for McD in spot duty at this late point in McD's career.

As other's have said though, at least Sergachev has shown some "flashes". Cirelli has been steadily unimpressive offensively and bad on faceoffs. I see these two contracts mostly based on "hope" they will grow a lot more.

We didn't have to sign them for both high AAVs and 8 year terms when they haven't shown play that warrants it in 4+ years each. Look at where Hedman and Stamkos were as RFAs when they signed their 8 year deals compared to Serge and Cirelli. They don't have to "fall off a cliff" to make these contracts look bad - they need to improve significantly to make them look good. It looks like a squandering of the money we gained by trading McD.

"uhhh thats not how the salary cap works, at all."
When you overpay (more than their market value) for the players you get, it's same as you having a lower cap than everyone else. That's how math works.

Again, go ahead and find me a selke-caliber top 9 center like Cirelli or a top four defender with playoff experience like Sergachev on the open market and see what it costs.

This sounds a lot like the description of a good third line center. And good third line centers are important. But you don't want to make a 2nd line center price and commitment for a third line center.

Point only makes 3.2 AAV more than Cirelli now, but he's a similar age, has scored 92 points in a season, has been an all star, and is probably just as good or better defensively than Cirelli. Just seems like too close an AAV and for the SAME number of years for what we've seen out of Cirelli.

He isn't just as good as Cirelli defensively but they're also not being asked to play the same roles. Good to cherry pick Points 92 point season, when he has settled into... wait for it... being about a 60 point player.

 

[LTIR Trickery]

Man Hose is being the reasonable one.

This place is a f***ing parody of sports fans right now. Most successful franchise in the sport over a close to 10 year period with the entire core in their prime and y'all acting like we're going to be in the Bedard lottery. It's really f***ing annoying.

You're not a fan of our new armchair GMs?

 

[DistantThunderRep]

When Hedman signed his 8 year extension, he and Stralman were our top pairing and with Hedman leading the team with 23 minutes a night - 5 minutes more than our 2nd pairing defensemen. He had scored double digit goals three years in a row. His points per game were improving almost every year since his rookie year and he had recent 55 and 47 point seasons, majority of which was even strength scoring.

Serge has had one 40 point season - his rookie year - and played the 2nd most minutes a night at 23 last season (good), but on the third pairing, so they are easier minutes than what Hedman was playing at this point in his career.

Serge is a very good young defensemen, but how can this not be seen as a bigger gamble than we made on Hedman at this point in his career? That's why maybe JB should have fought longer for either less AAV or less years.

Comparing where Stamkos and Point were when they signed their 8 year deals vs Cirelli is going to look even worse.

How do you play 23 easy minutes a game? That’s one of the dumbest things I’ve read.

 

[Stammertime91]

Point scored 2 more even strength points than Cirelli did this season. Yes Cirelli played 10 more games than Point did this season. Point scored 92 points 4 seasons ago. Point was a -5 this year while Cirelli was a +15, yes +/- can be a flawed stat but on the same team it's more relevant. Especially when Cirelli gets the tougher matchups typically.

I do think that Cirelli needs to improve his offensive production but I don't want him to sacrifice much defense for that. But if you are going to call him out for being overpaid then you need to for Point. His production has slipped the past few seasons and he is about to be joint highest paid.

Yeah but by a lot of peoples logic, can't you say you're paying for Points potential? Cause he sure as shit played like a 6.75M player those three seasons. I agree 9.5 is a lot for how he's looked the last couple regular seasons but factoring in playoffs and that contract, great value.

Cirelli played up to this contract and is slightly overpaid for the first couple years. I just wish he could score when we need him to in the playoffs. Not entirely his fault our depth failed but his line had plenty of chances and didn't.

The only contract that really bothers me is Sergachev's. I get all the points being made here and the fact Hedman signed several years ago but at the same time, I wish we would've waited a year to see how he performed without McDonagh here. At least factor that into the negotiation. Idk.

 

[ThunderRoad]

Why do you keep comparing the players. The money isn’t the same but the money value isn’t the same either. You keep doubling down on the same wrong opinions. No one thinks serge is as good or has the potential to be as good as hedman. So just bury that whole dumb argument.

The comparison between them is the cap % of their cap hit when both signed their long term deals which are essentially equivalent. And it is agreed consensus Sergachev will likely never reach Hedman's ceiling, so should not expect it.

I've seen the argument of Tampa buying UFA years built into Sergachev's contract but then Hedman was upcoming UFA status when he signed his deal in 2016. And if it's common knowledge that UFA status means an elite player can cash in, then the cap friendly deal Hedman signed is even more obvious. (And Hedman signed a good bridge deal prior to his 2016 contract signing so if there is this idea to reward a player for helping the team from a cap perspective on a bridge deal, BriseBois didn’t feel inclined? Know he wasn't the GM at the time but he worked out the contracts so I am assuming he was involved).

I like the player, don't like the overall contract especially when Tampa is hoping he can reach his ceiling as a Hedman-lite, and it's understandable fans are skeptical that this was the best that could have been negotiated, especially when this thought of the cap going up substantially (even saw a post saying going up 20M for goodness sake which is completely unrealistic) is highly unlikely before these 8 year deals reach around their midpoint. They are going to continue to take up a similar cap % for years to come with the cap only going up incrementally - unless something completely unexpected and drastically good happens. Not holding my breath.

Maybe Sergachev defies all and becomes a perennial Norris candidate. And I'm happy he's on the Lightning especially with McDonagh now gone and the lackluster defensive cast outside our top 3, and lack of top end defensive prospects as a whole. With this scouting department, I have always wondered why they struggle so much to find talent on the back end. None of the defensemen we draft really pan out.

And then there is the disappointment of losing two fan favorite players that still contributed a high level of skill to the team in basically the span of days being tough. That disappointment will color anything that isn't obviously fantastic at least until there is more time to process.

 

[RussianGuyovich]

The comparison between them is the cap % of their cap hit when both signed their long term deals which are essentially equivalent. And it is agreed consensus Sergachev will likely never reach Hedman's ceiling, so should not expect it.

I've seen the argument of Tampa buying UFA years built into Sergachev's contract but then Hedman was upcoming UFA status when he signed his deal in 2016. And if it's common knowledge that UFA status means an elite player can cash in, then the cap friendly deal Hedman signed is even more obvious. (And Hedman signed a good bridge deal prior to his 2016 contract signing so if there is this idea to reward a player for helping the team from a cap perspective on a bridge deal, BriseBois didn’t feel inclined? Know he wasn't the GM at the time but he worked out the contracts so I am assuming he was involved).

I like the player, don't like the overall contract especially when Tampa is hoping he can reach his ceiling as a Hedman-lite, and it's understandable fans are skeptical that this was the best that could have been negotiated, especially when this thought of the cap going up substantially (even saw a post saying going up 20M for goodness sake which is completely unrealistic) is highly unlikely before these 8 year deals reach around their midpoint. They are going to continue to take up a similar cap % for years to come with the cap only going up incrementally - unless something completely unexpected and drastically good happens. Not holding my breath.

Maybe Sergachev defies all and becomes a perennial Norris candidate. And I'm happy he's on the Lightning especially with McDonagh now gone and the lackluster defensive cast outside our top 3, and lack of top end defensive prospects as a whole. With this scouting department, I have always wondered why they struggle so much to find talent on the back end. None of the defensemen we draft really pan out.

And then there is the disappointment of losing two fan favorite players that still contributed a high level of skill to the team in basically the span of days being tough. That disappointment will color anything that isn't obviously fantastic at least until there is more time to process.

See, this is fine. This is an opinion board. If you are wary that serge will ever be worth it, that’s subjective and unassailable. But the histrionic unilateral posting of “we got fleeced” without any actual argument or substance yesterday was just so annoying.

 

[Outl4w]

Draper was a 20-30 point player (at most) for most of his career. This is absurd.

Draper also hit 30 goals and was one of the best if not the best shut down center in the game.

 

[The Macho King]

Draper also hit 30 goals and was one of the best if not the best shut down center in the game.

Kris Draper Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Salary, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of Kris Draper. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, trade, draft, salary and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

Draper never got particularly close to 30 goals. He hit 24 goals in a spike year but never got more than 15 in any other season. Hell, the majority of seasons he didn't even hit 30 points. His best f***ing season is 40 points, which Cirelli gets in his sleep.

And if you look at his TOI, he was not used heavily. He was a 4th line player most years. A great fourth line player who could be a third liner on most teams, but he was mostly a 4th line player.

This discussion is f***ing dumb.

 

[More 2004]

Man Hose is being the reasonable one.

This place is a f***ing parody of sports fans right now. Most successful franchise in the sport over a close to 10 year period with the entire core in their prime and y'all acting like we're going to be in the Bedard lottery. It's really f***ing annoying.

+1 the negativity here right now would make you think you were on the Panthers board.

 

[These Are The Days]

+1 the negativity here right now would make you think you were on the Panthers board.

We still rank behind Pittsburgh though. 40 years of generational talent and all they can do is bitch that they're not successful enough with 5 titles