GDT: 2022 NHL Entry Draft - Round 1 - July 7th - 7 P.M / Round 2-7 - July 8th - 11 A.M

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You draft a player and you have them for 8 years. You trade for DeBrincat and you have him for 2 years.

Now I'm not a mathologist but it seems like 8 is in fact more than 2? Someone correct me if I'm wrong??
Oh so Cat can't resign ? Or the player you draft can't demand a trade? Or the player you draft can't just be a Zacha 2.0? I'd take my chances with Cat for 2 years than deal with another Zacha for 8.
 
The short answer for me is that the owners aren't inherently anything. they are surrounded daily by money and numbers guys. I doubt they speak with Fitz that often. Sure, they have to ok big deals but even then, Fitz probably reports to an intermediary first. The money numbers guys try to reduce everything to a metric and don't give a rats ass about anything but trying to shave a nickel off the balance sheet so they can justify their huge salaries to Harris and Blitzer. My guess is that Harris and Blitzer don't pay close attention to any one team or sport or non-sport business. They probably have some algorithm program that shows them their net worth at any given moment but as long as that isn't dropping they probably don't worry too much either way.
So .... owner-based analytics. ;)
 
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The perception of Gaudreau is interesting.

This is a league that's seen Patrick Kane and Martin St. Louis put up some monster numbers at 33, 34, etc. Zuccarello just did 79 at age 34.

Bergeron, Crosby, Pavelski, etc - super high positional IQ guys that can mitigate their lost speed - are the only other types of forward to last as long as these small shifty star playmakers. And I guess Jagr/Ovechkin are in their own category. But everyone else falls off.

I have reservations about how redundant his skillset might be but no doubt, Gaudreau is a slam dunk elite forward. At worst, his decline mirrors Giroux and that's still a pretty good player? Or he's LTIRed because he got destroyed? By then, you have cap relief and reinforcements elsewhere.
 
I'd rather have a 60pt PFW that fits perfectly with our core and gonna be cheap for at least 5 years than a guys bound to make 10m per year. Bet Avs doesn't regret picking Landeskog over Huberdeau/Mika/Scheifele, for example. It's all about fit and cap management

If Slaf becomes a better version of Sharangovich (better positioning, forechecking, net front presence, 25is goals, 50ish pts per season) it would be a huge huge hit, imo
 
You're right that whoever we draft, may bust.

However trading those picks for 24 y. o. star albeit not franchise players isn't a viable strategy because you'll run yourself into salary cap problems before becoming a real contender. And also, even if you became a contender, your window would be significantly shorter if you traded 18 year olds for 24 year olds but I believe it requires no explanation.
And if the number 2 pick busts what’s that do to our chances of being a contender?
 
I just don't understand why everyone wants a mystery box that COULD turn out to be as good as Cat, instead of just getting the sure thing.
Say we give Bratt 7x7. Do you want to give 7/8 x 9-10m to Cat too ? Cause that's whats gonna happen if he scores 40 again. I'm willing to break the bank on another forward but IDK if a smaller player who does play small ( albeit a good PK'er ) is the right play.

If we do nothing I'll be let down but I don't think Cat was the ultimate target
 
So .... owner-based analytics. ;)
It's the flaw in corporate America. Too many bean counters who just want to count fewer beans and don't care how the company gets there. Of course, the opposite is the meddling owner like Steinbrenner or Jerry Jones. Somewhere in the middle is the best compromise. I will say that if Harris and Blitzer have just said to build a long term solid team and don't worry in the short term, and they are ok with writing the checks (frankly, the difference in a $70 mil payroll and an $80 mil payroll is walking around money for those guys and I can't imagine they blink twice over that), then just accept Fitz at his word and when the right player presents himself they will pay him. I'm ok with that.
 
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Slafkovsky’s pre draft production makes it way more of a gamble. Everyone salivates at the size, the skating and the highlight reel goals without focusing on the fact that his production was mediocre. It will be the lowest NHL equivalency for a top 2 pick in years if he goes top 2. So no, it’s not your standard risk.

Remember that this was the same issue with Zacha. Could Slafkovsky hit big? Absolutely. But this isn’t your run of the mill non-McDavid top 2 pick. It’s risky and people should acknowledge that.

And again, this is coming from someone who is a big fan of Slafkovsky. So I’m not being unfair to the kid because I don’t like him.
This is what I mean about you EA Sports NHL GMs. There is a world of difference in bust potential when it comes to the 2OA vs the 6OA. Look it up, the stats show it. You can't compare the value an iffy 6OA vs a borderline 1OA. That's insane on many levels.
 
I just don't understand why everyone wants a mystery box that COULD turn out to be as good as Cat, instead of just getting the sure thing.

Some people just didn't want Debrincat and it had nothing to do with the #2 pick if we are being honest.

We make that trade and I guarantee you that there are just as many people bitching about how small we are up front as there are people bitching about the fact that we didn't make the trade.

Different strokes for different folks.
 
The perception of Gaudreau is interesting.

This is a league that's seen Patrick Kane and Martin St. Louis put up some monster numbers at 33, 34, etc. Zuccarello just did 79 at age 34.

Bergeron, Crosby, Pavelski, etc - super high positional IQ guys that can mitigate their lost speed - are the only other types of forward to last as long as these small shifty star playmakers. And I guess Jagr/Ovechkin are in their own category. But everyone else falls off.

I have reservations about how redundant his skillset might be but no doubt, Gaudreau is a slam dunk elite forward. At worst, his decline mirrors Giroux and that's still a pretty good player? Or he's LTIRed because he got destroyed? By then, you have cap relief and reinforcements elsewhere.

He's exactly the type of player that ages well. I feel like Elias is another example of a supremely intelligent player (which guys like Gaudreau, Kane, MSL, Zucc are in addition to being shifty playmakers) holding up very well into his mid 30s. Johnny might be "redundant" but he's good enough that it doesn't matter. Maybe we get Slaf and then go also please go f***ing get Puljujarvi (if we're not even in on him I'll be fuming) as guys that offset that "small" style
 
Oh so Cat can't resign ? Or the player you draft can't demand a trade? Or the player you draft can't just be a Zacha 2.0? I'd take my chances with Cat for 2 years than deal with another Zacha for 8.
Oh I see, didn't realize it was that easy.

In that case, why haven't we traded for McDavid yet? WTF is Fitz thinking? Just do it, it's that easy!!
 
Say we give Bratt 7x7. Do you want to give 7/8 x 9-10m to Cat too ? Cause that's whats gonna happen if he scores 40 again. I'm willing to break the bank on another forward but IDK if a smaller player who does play small ( albeit a good PK'er ) is the right play.

If we do nothing I'll be let down but I don't think Cat was the ultimate target
Agreed.

Until Johnny is signed somewhere, I think he ends up in Jersey.
 
I just don't understand why everyone wants a mystery box that COULD turn out to be as good as Cat, instead of just getting the sure thing.
#2 overall picks aren’t lottery tickets. Obviously busts happen but the vast majority of the time you get a good player, sometimes a franchise player. In the salary cap era, top picks have absolutely massive value.
 
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I think if you believe this year's top-end is weak and you want a proven player, it is absolutely fair to be a little upset that we didn't trade for DeBrincat given a relatively low price relative to expectation.

That being said, assuming Slafkovsky is Kakko 2.0 right off the bat is a little bit premature. I know our drafting hasn't been great, but that's mostly because we love to go off the board on picks and make questionable calls that way with seemingly little reasoning. Slafkovsky is pretty consistently ranked in the top 3 on most boards and was the leader on Bob's draft rankings, which polls scouts. There are a lot of people who believe in him and even if you aren't too comfortable with him right off the bat, there's a reason he's being drafted as high as he is. It's easy to assume we will just get another Kakko or Laf given the recency of those two high picks not panning out perfectly as expected right off the bat, but those are still relatively rare occurrences. The vast majority of top 5 picks pan out, or at least have successful NHL careers.
 
Say we give Bratt 7x7. Do you want to give 7/8 x 9-10m to Cat too ? Cause that's whats gonna happen if he scores 40 again. I'm willing to break the bank on another forward but IDK if a smaller player who does play small ( albeit a good PK'er ) is the right play.

If we do nothing I'll be let down but I don't think Cat was the ultimate target
I’m convinced this board just doesn’t want talent on the roster lol. I would love to have the problem of having to pay a player for scoring 40 goals. That is a problem I’m fine worrying about
 
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