NHL Entry Draft 2022 NHL Draft Thread - Part 2

[Beech]

It's not a trend. The 2006 and 2008 drafts produced 7 guys altogether and once a different team wins the cup, a bunch of new guys will be added to the list. And why would you include years like 2017-2020? Not a lot of cup champs pick in the top 10 the year before they win

the evidence does not show it.

240 players in the top 10 picks in 24 years.
23 cup finals
46 teams
20 players per team = 920 spots
460 championship spots

~15 or so cup winners, at ~ 2 cups each ~ 30 spots
~ 23 finals appearances at ~ 2 each ~ 46 spots

these are tiny percentages. These numbers should be 3-5 times higher. Playoff success appears to be far more connected to draft success, late in the first and in the second round onwards. Any Tanking, or trading up, gets you regular season wins, but little playoff success.

And it does seem to get worse. The 2015 onwards have only shown minor regular season improvements for their teams. The same pool of about 15 teams have drafted in the top 10 in the 15-21 time frame. Few basement teams have escaped.

Unless things change, a top 10 is: higher salary, some minor regular season success and nothing else. NJ, Buffalo, (possibly Ottawa), AZ, MTL (less one miracle), Detroit, Chicago. All have little to show for the 15 onwards drafting.

Edmonton and TO have stars, and good to great regular seasons, but playoff collapses. Ditto for Colorado. Although Colorado has done better than TO and Edmonton.

The old view that you bottom out for 2-4 years, get top 5, top 10 picks and re-launch. May not be accurate.

 

[BondraTime]

the evidence does not show it.

240 players in the top 10 picks in 24 years.
23 cup finals
46 teams
20 players per team = 920 spots
460 championship spots

~15 or so cup winners, at ~ 2 cups each ~ 30 spots
~ 23 finals appearances at ~ 2 each ~ 46 spots

these are tiny percentages. These numbers should be 3-5 times higher. Playoff success appears to be far more connected to draft success, late in the first and in the second round onwards. Any Tanking, or trading up, gets you regular season wins, but little playoff success.

And it does seem to get worse. The 2015 onwards have only shown minor regular season improvements for their teams. The same pool of about 15 teams have drafted in the top 10 in the 15-21 time frame. Few basement teams have escaped.

Unless things change, a top 10 is: higher salary, some minor regular season success and nothing else. NJ, Buffalo, (possibly Ottawa), AZ, MTL (less one miracle), Detroit, Chicago. All have little to show for the 15 onwards drafting.

Edmonton and TO have stars, and good to great regular seasons, but playoff collapses. Ditto for Colorado. Although Colorado has done better than TO and Edmonton.

The old view that you bottom out for 2-4 years, get top 5, top 10 picks and re-launch. May not be accurate.

That’s a very incorrect number, seeing that Crosby, Malkin and Fleury have combined for 12 Cup finals themselves. Add in Kane and Toews at 3 times each and that brings it to 18 cup finals in just 7 seasons among 2 teams. Just using the Lightning and Stars final brings that number to 23 cup appearances with Sergachev, Stamkos, Hedman, Seguin (who all also appeared in 2 finals each) and Heiskanen.

So that’s 23 cup appearances from top 10 picks in 8 seasons. In the remaining 15 years there are likely another 40+ appearances from top 10 picks (Ovechkin, Backstrom, Connolly, Kotkoniemi, Staal, Hedman, Sergachev, Stamkos, Pietrangelo, MAF, Boumeester all appearing within the last 4 cup finals making it over 30 with 10+ seasons left to go over)

Since 2005 the only teams to win not led by a top 10 pick are the Wings and Bruins. Every other team has a top 10 pick leading their charge, very large majority had multiple.

 

[Qward]

If we draft where we are right now, I think Dorion will end up taking Nazar over Kemell.
He likes his USNTDP kids.

Plus he is committed to Michigan next year so we get to delay the contract by at least a year and still get a year of development out of him.
Downside is he is short

 

[SlapJack]

the evidence does not show it.

240 players in the top 10 picks in 24 years.
23 cup finals
46 teams
20 players per team = 920 spots
460 championship spots

~15 or so cup winners, at ~ 2 cups each ~ 30 spots
~ 23 finals appearances at ~ 2 each ~ 46 spots

these are tiny percentages. These numbers should be 3-5 times higher. Playoff success appears to be far more connected to draft success, late in the first and in the second round onwards. Any Tanking, or trading up, gets you regular season wins, but little playoff success.

And it does seem to get worse. The 2015 onwards have only shown minor regular season improvements for their teams. The same pool of about 15 teams have drafted in the top 10 in the 15-21 time frame. Few basement teams have escaped.

Unless things change, a top 10 is: higher salary, some minor regular season success and nothing else. NJ, Buffalo, (possibly Ottawa), AZ, MTL (less one miracle), Detroit, Chicago. All have little to show for the 15 onwards drafting.

Edmonton and TO have stars, and good to great regular seasons, but playoff collapses. Ditto for Colorado. Although Colorado has done better than TO and Edmonton.

The old view that you bottom out for 2-4 years, get top 5, top 10 picks and re-launch. May not be accurate.

The mistake that you're making is assuming that you get an instant turnaround and win the cup within 5 years of having a couple of bad draft picks. You looked at the players drafted between 2009-2020 and said, "Wow, not a lot of cup winners in there - must be a trend that the top 10 doesn't really matter"

Here are the cup winners since 2009:
Pittsburgh 2009, 2016, 2017
Chicago 2010, 2013, 2015
Boston 2011
LA 2012, 2014
Washington 2018
St. Louis 2019
Tampa 2020, 2021

The only team that didn't have players integral to their Cup wins drafted in the top 10 was Boston, and they still had Tyler Seguin on the roster.
2004 Ovechkin, Malkin
2005 Crosby
2006 Staal, Toews, Backstrom, Kessel
2007 Kane
2008 Stamkos, Doughty, Pietrangelo
2009 Hedman

Also as BondraTime pointed out, many of those players won multiple cups which changes the math.

You aren't handed a cup with high draft picks, but getting franchise players outside the top 10 is extremely rare. And yeah, a lot of top 10 picks never win it - just like the rest of all the other draft picks. There is still a lot of luck involved as well. If Pittsburgh had the 3rd in 2004, and the 2nd in 2005, it's likely they would have missed the playoffs for another 5 years straight instead of being in the finals twice.

Most of the top challengers right now are littered with top 10 picks like Colorado, Toronto, and Florida. And you could argue that top 10 is too broad in importance and focus on the top 3 since only in exceptional years would you see franchise altering talent outside that range.

So again, there's no trend, you're just looking at it and seeing something that isn't there

 

[Hale The Villain]

If we draft where we are right now, I think Dorion will end up taking Nazar over Kemell.
He likes his USNTDP kids.

Plus he is committed to Michigan next year so we get to delay the contract by at least a year and still get a year of development out of him.
Downside is he is short

Kemell is more physical than Nazar, but he doesn't seem to be trending in the right direction with no points in his last 12 games, and that's usually something the Sens take into consideration.

Still think Gauthier is the most likely pick for us if we're outside of the top 5. Checks off a lot of boxes.

 

[Qward]

Kemell is more physical than Nazar, but he doesn't seem to be trending in the right direction with no points in his last 12 games, and that's usually something the Sens take into consideration.

Still think Gauthier is the most likely pick for us if we're outside of the top 5. Checks off a lot of boxes.

I know this isnt the determining factor, but Nazr is a right shot and Gauthier is a Lefty. We need more right shots.

 

[MatchesMalone]

Kemell is more physical than Nazar, but he doesn't seem to be trending in the right direction with no points in his last 12 games, and that's usually something the Sens take into consideration.

Still think Gauthier is the most likely pick for us if we're outside of the top 5. Checks off a lot of boxes.

In this case I'd say "more physical" is actually a detriment. Kemell is notorious for violent stick infractions and losing his temper. Nazar may not be particularly "physical", but is extremely tenacious in pursuit of the puck.

 

[NHL Dude 120]

I feel like we're trying to build a pain in the ass team to play against. I'd say look for those types of players. The player who most correlates with skill and SOB hockey is who I think we would pick.

 

[NHL Dude 120]

Do you guys think a

Savoie-Stutzle-Brown line could work?

 

[Akrapovince]

I really have nightmares of the last name Gauthier, might as well draft a Reinhart at that point as silly as I sound.

 

[Bileur]

I really have nightmares of the last name Gauthier, might as well draft a Reinhart at that point as silly as I sound.

Not sure I follow the joke.

Do you guys think a

Savoie-Stutzle-Brown line could work?

Would be sick against some teams and invisible against others would be my guess.

 

[NHL Dude 120]

My NHL draft has us picking Yurov. What do you guys think? Good pick? The pick right after has the Islanders picking Kemell.

 

[GCK]

My NHL draft has us picking Yurov. What do you guys think? Good pick? The pick right after has the Islanders picking Kemell.

In a vacuum I think Yurov is ideal. I’m not sure how the Russian angle will play out this draft.

 

[BondraTime]

In a vacuum I think Yurov is ideal. I’m not sure how the Russian angle will play out this draft.

Going to caution teams even more significantly than normal. Would be surprised to see both the Russians taken in the top 10, even though they should solidly be there.

 

[aragorn]

My NHL draft has us picking Yurov. What do you guys think? Good pick? The pick right after has the Islanders picking Kemell.

It seems Yurov is a versatile player who can play all three forward positions, he has decent size, is very responsible defensively & looks to have a very good offensive skillset. He just seems like a very well rounded mature player & further along the development curve for such a young player.

Given the circumstances in the world today & EM being Ukranian whether that plays into it or not, but one can't help but wonder how that will affect Russian players in this draft if this is still going on at that time, it might not be. Some teams ranked later on in the draft might actually benefit if these events hurt these players & where they are drafted. Kemel dropping like a stone, he was 3rd not that long ago. Jiricek seems to be holding firm between 7th to 10th on a few sites.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

No to Gauthier. I know we're down Norris and Bathersom, but many of our recent games show how important skilled guys are. "Working hard" doesn't mean much if you can't actually get the puck in the back of the net

 

[NHL Dude 120]

I think we could snag another late 1st round pick using our 2nd and one of our 3rd round picks. We should target a RHD. Maybe Chesley.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

No to Gauthier. I know we're down Norris and Bathersom, but many of our recent games show how important skilled guys are. "Working hard" doesn't mean much if you can't actually get the puck in the back of the net

If there is one thing Gauthier does not seem to have an issue with it's getting the puck to the back of the net.
He Leads his USNDP team in goals ahead of Cooley, Nazar, Howard, McGroaty et al.

 

[GCK]

If there is one thing Gauthier does not seem to have an issue with it's getting the puck to the back of the net.
He Leads his USNDP team in goals ahead of Cooley, Nazar, Howard, McGroaty et al.

But he is big, therefore he cannot have skill.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

But he is big, therefore he cannot have skill.

Right. I forgot that angle.

 

[LeProspector]

Ottawa definitely needs to target skilled players for this draft. Other than Jarventie, who has legit potential to be a top 6 forward? Pipeline looking pretty thin again…

 

[Hale The Villain]

But he is big, therefore he cannot have skill.

Strawman.

Gauthier has lots of puck skill. Question with him is whether he is capable of creating plays or if he can only finish them off.

I haven't seen enough of him yet to say.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

Strawman.

Gauthier has lots of puck skill. Question with him is whether he is capable of creating plays or if he can only finish them off.

I haven't seen enough of him yet to say.

Plus his PPG in the USHL isn't that impressive for a guy in his draft year. First round material,sure, but not really top ten.

 

[Beech]

The mistake that you're making is assuming that you get an instant turnaround and win the cup within 5 years of having a couple of bad draft picks. You looked at the players drafted between 2009-2020 and said, "Wow, not a lot of cup winners in there - must be a trend that the top 10 doesn't really matter"

Here are the cup winners since 2009:
Pittsburgh 2009, 2016, 2017
Chicago 2010, 2013, 2015
Boston 2011
LA 2012, 2014
Washington 2018
St. Louis 2019
Tampa 2020, 2021

The only team that didn't have players integral to their Cup wins drafted in the top 10 was Boston, and they still had Tyler Seguin on the roster.
2004 Ovechkin, Malkin
2005 Crosby
2006 Staal, Toews, Backstrom, Kessel
2007 Kane
2008 Stamkos, Doughty, Pietrangelo
2009 Hedman

Also as BondraTime pointed out, many of those players won multiple cups which changes the math.

You aren't handed a cup with high draft picks, but getting franchise players outside the top 10 is extremely rare. And yeah, a lot of top 10 picks never win it - just like the rest of all the other draft picks. There is still a lot of luck involved as well. If Pittsburgh had the 3rd in 2004, and the 2nd in 2005, it's likely they would have missed the playoffs for another 5 years straight instead of being in the finals twice.

Most of the top challengers right now are littered with top 10 picks like Colorado, Toronto, and Florida. And you could argue that top 10 is too broad in importance and focus on the top 3 since only in exceptional years would you see franchise altering talent outside that range.

So again, there's no trend, you're just looking at it and seeing something that isn't there

All I am arguing is; a top 10 is not a wining lotto ticket. And over the last 12 - 14 years, whether just dumb luck and we are going through a poor period, I don't know! But, it has been abysmal. If trends hold. Long suffering fans. Fans of teams that endured a 3-10 year basement stay, may not be rewarded. And may be frustrated for a good 5-7 years, only to re-plummet!!!

I was so surprised by the stats of 09-20 top 10's..So little to show for it!! There are 4-5 year dead periods where only 1-2 guys played in the final. Even if you scale back to 09-18...Now a 100 top 10's and only 5-6 cup winners and 6-7 cup finalists.. Such a small number. These should be the elite, the future stars. I really did expect the numbers to be 3-5 times higher. I wonder how NHL numbers stack up against the NBA and the NFL??

Take a look at 10, 11, 12, 13 and 14 draft. Negligible success. 5 years, 50 players..1 cup (Seguin, he was a passenger in Boston), 3 finals (one real fluke, hello Drouin. One semi fluke, hello Seguin and the bubble. Plus his ride as a passenger in Boston)..yikkes. The 10-14 picks are 26-30 year olds! If you want to argue 15 outwards are still young, fine, but; Ouch!!!

Standing at that podium feeling good about your first being a #5 overall, will get you a hard ass agent who wants a King's ransom for his clients second contract and nothing else.

 

[BondraTime]

All I am arguing is; a top 10 is not a wining lotto ticket. And over the last 12 - 14 years, whether just dumb luck and we are going through a poor period, I don't know! But, it has been abysmal. If trends hold. Long suffering fans. Fans of teams that endured a 3-10 year basement stay, may not be rewarded. And may be frustrated for a good 5-7 years, only to re-plummet!!!

I was so surprised by the stats of 09-20 top 10's..So little to show for it!! There are 4-5 year dead periods where only 1-2 guys played in the final. Even if you scale back to 09-18...Now a 100 top 10's and only 5-6 cup winners and 6-7 cup finalists.. Such a small number. These should be the elite, the future stars. I really did expect the numbers to be 3-5 times higher. I wonder how NHL numbers stack up against the NBA and the NFL??

Take a look at 10, 11, 12, 13 and 14 draft. Negligible success. 5 years, 50 players..1 cup (Seguin, he was a passenger in Boston), 3 finals (one real fluke, hello Drouin. One semi fluke, hello Seguin and the bubble. Plus his ride as a passenger in Boston)..yikkes. The 10-14 picks are 26-30 year olds! If you want to argue 15 outwards are still young, fine, but; Ouch!!!

Standing at that podium feeling good about your first being a #5 overall, will get you a hard ass agent who wants a King's ransom for his clients second contract and nothing else.

You’re failing to grasp that each final has had top 10 picks from 2000-2009. All of Crosby, Malkin, OV, Backstrom, Pietrangelo, MAF, Kane, Toews, etc have won cups 10+ years since being drafted in the top 10. The only top 10 guys that won within a few years of their drafts were Chicago, LA and Pittsburgh’s guys, which account for 7 Cup winners from 2010-2020, including 17 Cup rings for top 10 picks over that span from 2010-17. The rest of the top 10 picks took 10+ years to win their cup, but all of Stamkos, OV, Pietrangelo, Connelly, Boumeester, Hedman, Backstrom also won Cups from 2018-20.

Of course teams may not be rewarded, that’s how a sports league works. Top 10 picks offer teams building blocks that can help lead to success. That doesn’t mean they will automatically lead to success.

The exact same thing will be true 5 years from now, there will be a ton of guys who were drafted top 10 from 2010-2019 who will have been to the final and won a cup.

Anyone expecting to draft top 10 and win a cup right away is just asking for disappointment. Teams that draft in the top 10 are getting guys to build their team around. It’s by far, by a gigantic amount, the best predictor for future success. The teams that win the cups are almost always being led by a top 10 pick.

In the next 5 years would it be strange to see Toronto, Colorado, Florida win a cup? Each team has 4-5+ top 10 picks from 2010-20. Take any of the top teams in the league and 90% have top 10 picks from that time leading the way.

The top 10 teams in the league in the standings have 30 guys on their teams that were drafted in the top 10 from 2010-2019, and then another 15 or so drafted top 10 from 2000-09