WJC: 2022 IIHF WM U20 D1A in Hörsholm, Denmark ( december 12 - 18)

[SoundAndFury]

For example Rogach (I'm as big of a fan of his as you are) is not injured, he was simply cut from the camp citing his lack foot speed.

Oh wow, that's unexpected news. That both sheds a bit different light on the "guys" but also what the hell.. Feels like missing the forrest for the trees. I mean the guy wore a letter at U18s, is 1 point shy of the top scorer for Lida.. Him not making the team on merit just makes no sense.

Frankly, a decision like this makes me wonder how much merit was there in leaving out those CHLers you mentioned before.

 

[ozo]

Oh wow, that's unexpected news. That both sheds a bit different light on the "guys" but also what the hell.. Feels like missing the forrest for the trees. I mean the guys wore a letter at U18s, is 1 point shy of the top scorer for Lida.. Him not making the team on merit just makes no sense.

Frankly, a decision like this makes me wonder how much merit was there in leaving out those CHLers you mentioned before.

He played for Lida last night just hours after being cut from U20 roster due to their lack of junior players, so this is 100% not injury related. I'd personally also take him over 04' Karpovich or tiny Pozhigan, but Belarus has a track record of spineless coaching, so before watching the team perform, I'm willing to give Stas a benefit of doubt.

What do I mean by spineless coaching - earlier I decided not to call you out saying that Tolopilo was the obvious go-to goalie last time around because imo he truly is a bad goalie, that has been spoon-fed opportunities for years and underdelivered every single time . I have seen all his national team games and there's nothing more to his goalkeeping than his size, yet none of the coaches were seemingly able to drop him until it was too late. So this ''fresh approach'' or ''vision" from the coach who admitted that he is biased towards players that are based in Belarus and playing serious minutes is welcome to see. After all Belarus is not Lithuania, they don't need to ice every somewhat talented player no matter the age, they can try to build an actual team of age appropriate players therefore Rogach will definitely play next year.

 

[Eye of Ra]

Belarus is missing some players. I would say Norway is the clear favorites.

Eskil Wold and Eskild Bakke Olsen are both top players in Norway League, a league that is much better than people think. Lucas Loob Trygg and Patrick Rørbu Elvsveen are very good in that league aswell.

Philip Granath, Martin Johnsen and Mikkel Oby Olsen are looking good in SHL.

Sander Wold is a very good player in the best swedish junior league.

Thats 8 players who would be considered very good even on teams like Germany and Switzerland. Rest of the forwards group are probaly just hardworking players, nothing special, but you dont need 4 scoring lines to have sucess.

The name Loob Trygg is interesting. His uncle is Håkan Loob, one of the best swedish player ever.

I personally would have included Calle Spaberg Olsen in the roster. Already good player in Norway League and have 10 games in SHL in his belt. Leon Johansen Halmrast aswell. Good player in the best swedish junior league and was great last season in Norway League.

The fact that Norway dont even take out those 2 players just says how good depth they have. They can afford to go without those 2 and still have 8 very good offensive players.

When i mention Norway League, im talking about their best league, the senior league, not u20 league, just so people get that.

Goalies are okay.

D? Ole Julian Bjørgvik Holm was good in AHL last season and looks good in OHL this season. Sander Vold Engebråten is already one of the best defenders in the Norway League. Rest of the d-corp seemst to be stay-at-home d.

Coach is interesting. Its a swede. The guy has coached Frölunda juniors since 2015. And we all know how good junior-program Frölunda have. I expect him to be a good coach.

If people think Latvia and Belarus have stronger teams, you are bascially saying that Belarus League and Latvian League are stronger than SHL and Norway League. Makes no sense.

Keep in mind that im Swedish. I have no reason whatsoever to hype Norway. Im looking objective into this matter.

 

[kabidjan18]

Keep in mind that im Swedish. I have no reason whatsoever to hype Norway. Im looking objective into this matter.

You say you're looking objectively. But are you actually looking? Or just looking at the club names on EP?

 

[Namejs]

Belarus is missing some players. I would say Norway is the clear favorites.

Eskil Wold and Eskild Bakke Olsen are both top players in Norway League, a league that is much better than people think. Lucas Loob Trygg and Patrick Rørbu Elvsveen are very good in that league aswell.

Philip Granath, Martin Johnsen and Mikkel Oby Olsen are looking good in SHL.

Sander Wold is a very good player in the best swedish junior league.

Thats 8 players who would be considered very good even on teams like Germany and Switzerland. Rest of the forwards group are probaly just hardworking players, nothing special, but you dont need 4 scoring lines to have sucess.

The name Loob Trygg is interesting. His uncle is Håkan Loob, one of the best swedish player ever.

I personally would have included Calle Spaberg Olsen in the roster. Already good player in Norway League and have 10 games in SHL in his belt. Leon Johansen Halmrast aswell. Good player in the best swedish junior league and was great last season in Norway League.

The fact that Norway dont even take out those 2 players just says how good depth they have. They can afford to go without those 2 and still have 8 very good offensive players.

When i mention Norway League, im talking about their best league, the senior league, not u20 league, just so people get that.

Goalies are okay.

D? Ole Julian Bjørgvik Holm was good in AHL last season and looks good in OHL this season. Sander Vold Engebråten is already one of the best defenders in the Norway League. Rest of the d-corp seemst to be stay-at-home d.

Coach is interesting. Its a swede. The guy has coached Frölunda juniors since 2015. And we all know how good junior-program Frölunda have. I expect him to be a good coach.

If people think Latvia and Belarus have stronger teams, you are bascially saying that Belarus League and Latvian League are stronger than SHL and Norway League. Makes no sense.

Keep in mind that im Swedish. I have no reason whatsoever to hype Norway. Im looking objective into this matter.

The only issue with your assessment is that you haven't actually made an assessment of the Latvian team and probably can't name a single player on it. What you have is a verbose post regarding the Norwegian team with no reference to anyone else.

Your post can't be objective if you have made no comparison to other teams. In fact, it's almost meaningless.

Especially considering that there are virtually no players playing in the Latvian league on our U20 squad, with the lone exception being Simanovics, who is one of the leading defensemen in the league and likely will be playing on the 3rd pairing or lower.

We have 12 players playing major junior hockey in North America, 1 NCAA, 6 guys from the same MHL team and our 4th line consists of a couple team-leading forwards playing for Lulea J20 in J20 Nationell.

Our defense includes guys like Hodass and Fenenko, both of whom are leading their teams in WHL and QMJHL in points among Ds.

So, with all due respect, Norway looks like the 3rd best team and that's while being a little cocky regarding Kazakhstan, which has 3 players with KHL caps and their entire team playing against grown men in the Kazakshstani league.

 

[ozo]

Hungary isn't bad by any means, but Kazakhstan is just a little bit better at everything. I guess I could have figured that out without watching this game too.

 

[Namejs]

Hungary isn't bad by any means, but Kazakhstan is just a little bit better at everything. I guess I could have figured that out without watching this game too.

What surprised me today as I was skimming through all of the rosters again was how bad Denmark looks on paper.

If we look at the combined team stats, they have 179 games played in the Danish league with 9 points scored. And most of these are forwards.

As far as I know, our 13th forward Zalans only made the team due to snubs/injuries and the fact that we severely lack Cs, yet he's scoring at the same rate in the Danish U20 league as half of their forwards.

 

[SoundAndFury]

Hungary isn't bad by any means, but Kazakhstan is just a little bit better at everything. I guess I could have figured that out without watching this game too.

I only watched to determine if either of those teams is more than it could have been possible to guesstimate. But it didn't seem like it is. Although as far as relegation battle is concerned, it's not going to be a walkover for Denmark.

What surprised me today as I was skimming through all of the rosters again was how bad Denmark looks on paper.

Yeah compared to their peek teams the difference is pretty striking.

 

[A Bundy]

So, with all due respect, Norway looks like the 3rd best team and that's while being a little cocky regarding Kazakhstan, which has 3 players with KHL caps and their entire team playing against grown men in the Kazakshstani league.

Great read allthough maybe equally non-comparing / myopic as you accuse Eye of Ra's post of? It seems at least like the betting companies agree with you. The odds wa 3:1 yesterday for Norway when I placed my bet but rose to 3:40 now. Not sure if any line-ups have changed or it is just most likely book-balancing, but we will at least see this unfold shortly and get some answers. Not sure how good they are at setting odds for IIHF tourneys either, judging from past tourneys. The Latvian team sure looks strong enough from the looks of it, and probably more wholesome than Norway. Norway lost Wiberg their captain (but 4th liner) to what I suspect is an injury last minutes agains Denmark, and Koch due to illness. Leo Halmrast who was scratched for the tourney had a 5 point game today for Modo today at J20 Nationell so that is maybe a timely indication of the competetiveness in the top offensive lines this year. (Or maybe a different management idea on who should fill up the fourth line, ref the Luleå top scorer doing the 4th line duties for Lativa.) Norway actually seem to be running with three offensively skilled lines that either one could be the top line, and one checking line. As I am totally bias towards Norway I see the game as a toss-up, and could easily come down to what goalies are having the best day. Expect Norway to start with Stensrud and Latvia with Mezsargs (?) as Bruveris only has 5 games this season (?). Gonna be fun. Expect Latvia to jump out of the gate like crazy canucks and get an early goal or two before Norway gradually gets their act together an hopefully capitalize on PP.

 

[SoundAndFury]

Not sure how good they are at setting odds for IIHF tourneys either, judging from past tourneys.

They are notoriously terrible at lower levels.

I always give this example, Romania showed up to WC in Lithuania (2018 I think) with their best roster plus naturalized Ukrainians while it was also the first time almost none of the Cronucks represented Croatia. The game was a fairly expected blowout 7-3 in Romania's favor. The odds on Romania were between 7.5 and 10. Because you know, on the surface it was just promoted D2A team against the team that usually medals at 1B. If you ignore the rosters completely, that is.

Very few people and that includes betting people, give these tournaments the attention that people on this board do. So Latvia was always going to be the favorite for bookies and most people are going to bet on Latvia impacting the odds even further.

 

[A Bundy]

Very few people and that includes betting people, give these tournaments the attention that people on this board do. So Latvia was always going to be the favorite for bookies and most people are going to bet on Latvia impacting the odds even further.

Yeah! That is my impression as well. They start off with a finger in the air, and then just balance out as money pours in. The last WC was very similar. Nice place for us hockey nerds Try to stay away from NHL though, as I find it nororiously hard to predict and no bargains.

 

[SoundAndFury]

I have to also say, the arena sucks. Gives that "low-time event nobody cares about" vibe. Unfortunate.

Also that "making a save" part so far not going too well for Norwegian goalie..

 

[filip85]

They are notoriously terrible at lower levels.

I always give this example, Romania showed up to WC in Lithuania (2018 I think) with their best roster plus naturalized Ukrainians while it was also the first time almost none of the Cronucks represented Croatia. The game was a fairly expected blowout 7-3 in Romania's favor. The odds on Romania were between 7.5 and 10. Because you know, on the surface it was just promoted D2A team against the team that usually medals at 1B. If you ignore the rosters completely, that is.

Very few people and that includes betting people, give these tournaments the attention that people on this board do. So Latvia was always going to be the favorite for bookies and most people are going to bet on Latvia impacting the odds even further.

I have Romanian flag as a reminder sticked on my PS4 Pro. While I consider myself a patriot, that was simply too good chance to miss it.

 

[Namejs]

They are notoriously terrible at lower levels.

I always give this example, Romania showed up to WC in Lithuania (2018 I think) with their best roster plus naturalized Ukrainians while it was also the first time almost none of the Cronucks represented Croatia. The game was a fairly expected blowout 7-3 in Romania's favor. The odds on Romania were between 7.5 and 10. Because you know, on the surface it was just promoted D2A team against the team that usually medals at 1B. If you ignore the rosters completely, that is.

Very few people and that includes betting people, give these tournaments the attention that people on this board do. So Latvia was always going to be the favorite for bookies and most people are going to bet on Latvia impacting the odds even further.

The odds were slightly in favor of Latvia and there was no value in a bet there, as it reflected the winning probabilities.

 

[ozo]

Three odd man rushes within a minute not converted by Latvia, this is not good for my heart.

 

[filip85]

Trygg, despite being Marius's son, reminds with his on ice stature on his uncle Mats.

 

[Namejs]

The odds were slightly in favor of Latvia and there was no value in a bet there, as it reflected the winning probabilities.

I actually take my words back, Latvia completely dominating 5-on-5, Norway without any real chances in the 2nd period even 5-on-3

 

[A Bundy]

Think they have one period each so far? Norway was good in the first, but Latvia look stronger and more energetic in the second in my opinion. Goalie Stensrud is picking up after a flumsy start, and saved Norway in those rushes. If Latvia keeps picking penalties like this it migh flip. The odds payed 3.4 times for Norway and 1.75 for Latvia before the game; now at 11 for Norway. If the last period is gonna look like the first it might work, but if like the 2nd not so much. Expect the Norwegian management to show up now and say something clever.

 

[Namejs]

Think they have one period each so far? Norway was good in the first, but Latvia look stronger and more energetic in the second in my opinion. Goalie Stensrud is picking up after a flumsy start, and saved Norway in those rushes. If Latvia keeps picking penalties like this it migh flip. The odds payed 3.4 times for Norway and 1.75 for Latvia before the game; now at 11 for Norway. If the last period is gonna look like the first it might work, but if like the 2nd not so much. Expect the Norwegian management to show up now and say something clever.

Hockey is a game of chance and Norway can definitely still come out on top, but having only seen the 2nd period it really did look quite lopsided.

 

[A Bundy]

Hockey is a game of chance and Norway can definitely still come out on top, but having only seen the 2nd period it really did look quite lopsided.

Yes, totally agree on the 2nd.

 

[SoundAndFury]

And Latvia scores a 4th on a nothing play and a mistake by the goalie. All in all, Latvia is the better team (which takes way too many penalties) but Norway lacks goaltending to make it interesting.

 

[A Bundy]

These December dissapointments is a toll. Starting to be as predictable as Christmas yet comes as a surprise (to me) every time. Congrats Latvia. Well deserved. Typically Norway will play Plogås for the rest of the tourney at 92 % svs.

 

[wingerdinger]

Latvia was very impressive. They got three strong lines, with the top line and the Lulea line tilting the ice for latvia. Im a massive fan of vilmanis, he'll be a steal in the 2nd round for sure.

 

[SpitfireG]

Belarus outplayed Denmark completly in 1st period. Watching for def Artsiom Leushunou (2005 year born) get an assistant with first goal for Belarus. He has very smooth skating and take decision fast.
Witn Denmark the # 13 is a smart player, with good hands.

 

[ozo]

So. Many. Penalties.