WJC: 2022 IIHF WM U20 D1A in Hörsholm, Denmark ( december 12 - 18)

[ozo]

I have another question, how expensive is hockey for family in Belarus? Let's say for middle class? And if a little boy is interested in a hockey club, but his parents do not make enough money, will the club itself offer help in the form of a scholarship or some other support? I live in the Czech Republic and the view of parents today is thath hockey is an expensive sport, not only for money but also for the time that parents have to travel to training or matches. That is why floorball also takes some children from hockey and at the same time it is a significantly cheaper sport.

It probably is cheaper than anywhere else besides Russia. Training itself is free, I imagine clubs/schools also help with equipment if not flat out cover it, but that's why kids often go over to richer Minsk or to Russian team schools as they promise better conditions in this regard. Parents pay for tournaments and travel in most cases.

 

[Namejs]

What ozo omitted is that the number of Belarusian kids going to play major junior hockey in North America has also dramatically increased. A third of their U20 team played in North America if we look at the last pre-COVID tournament.

That is a choice and for me it looks like a paradigm shift in Belarus, which has always tried raising their talent domestically for the most part. The Belarusian hockey system is an inefficient one, and it never really could compete with Latvia despite having 5x the population.

So to me this is one of the factors that has led to improvements at the junior level. They're sort of finally admitting they can't produce good enough players on their own, and have to rely on better hockey programmes as the players grow past a certain age, be it Russia or North America.

 

[Pan]

What ozo omitted is that the number of Belarusian kids going to play major junior hockey in North America has also dramatically increased. A third of their U20 team played in North America if we look at the last pre-COVID tournament.

That is a choice and for me it looks like a paradigm shift in Belarus, which has always tried raising their talent domestically for the most part. The Belarusian hockey system is an inefficient one, and it never really could compete with Latvia despite having 5x the population.

So to me this is one of the factors that has led to improvements at the junior level. They're sort of finally admitting they can't produce good enough players on their own, and have to rely on better hockey programmes as the players grow past a certain age, be it Russia or North America.

What you omitted is that out of U20 that won the D1A this year there were like only 2 impact players from North America. That out of U18 that just got silver medals of EYOF and U18 that was 6th at last WM18 no one had played in North America. All three players drafted by NHL clubs this year were drafted from domestic clubs and this was one of the best drafts for Belarus both quality and quantity wise.

Some kids get noticed by CHL and USHL clubs, get drafted and you can't help but let them go there. That's how you get Protas, Kolyachonok. Some kids don't and stay home for their further development. That's how you get Sharangovich, Suvorov etc. Ones like Usov or Klimovich combine both ways. It's normal to have options, isn't it?

Anyway, they get to North America at age of 17 the earliest. Do you really think that player "production" starts at age of 17 or you just can't admit that something can go well in Belarus and it has been progressively outrunning Latvia in junior hockey?

 

[Pan]

Damn, one should have very special mindset to say that growing number of players invited to North America means inabilty to produce good players while it obviously means the opposite.

 

[ozo]

What ozo omitted is that the number of Belarusian kids going to play major junior hockey in North America has also dramatically increased. A third of their U20 team played in North America if we look at the last pre-COVID tournament.

That is a choice and for me it looks like a paradigm shift in Belarus, which has always tried raising their talent domestically for the most part. The Belarusian hockey system is an inefficient one, and it never really could compete with Latvia despite having 5x the population.

So to me this is one of the factors that has led to improvements at the junior level. They're sort of finally admitting they can't produce good enough players on their own, and have to rely on better hockey programmes as the players grow past a certain age, be it Russia or North America.

You are right, I should have mentioned CHL as a potentially useful production line, but my post already was miles long and I like to not be fired from my job for neglecting it while I polish my essay on Belarus youth hockey. In couple of years we will see what comes of this, because we don't have enough data for it to be called as a surefire success. What I disagree is that there is some sort of a programme shift that has taken place internally in Belarus. CHL was not drafting Belarussians because there was almost nobody worthy of a draft. First came the talent only then CHL realized that there's gold that can be mined so to speak and started taking them in bunches.

 

[Namejs]

You are right, I should have mentioned CHL as a potentially useful production line, but my post already was miles long and I like to not be fired from my job for neglecting it while I polish my essay on Belarus youth hockey. In couple of years we will see what comes of this, because we don't have enough data for it to be called as a surefire success. What I disagree is that there is some sort of a programme shift that has taken place internally in Belarus. CHL was not drafting Belarussians because there was almost nobody worthy of a draft. First came the talent only then CHL realized that there's gold that can be mined so to speak and started taking them in bunches.

I'm relatively sure it's usually an agent-player sort of a deal not just a random email after the fact. There's usually some communication going on beforehand.

So to me this looks like a change on the Belarusian end, since it isn't just one team drafting Belarusians all of a sudden, but a whole bunch of them. Sure seems like an organized, conscious decision with planning involved.

 

[Namejs]

Damn, one should have very special mindset to say that growing number of players invited to North America means inabilty to produce good players while it obviously means the opposite.

Having someone drafted in CHL is not an achievement or an indicator of being able to produce good players. It's a *choice* on the part of players or their agents and/or family or maybe in the case of Belarus - their hockey academy or management.

CHL in and of itself is not as efficient in developing talent, nor does it put the players in a particularly good standing in respect to maximizing their chances of becoming pro players when compared to the best European hockey systems, such as Sweden or even Switzerland.

It's not necessarily good news for anyone. It's just a change in the way the talent is being developed.

Before it was all Belarus with very few exceptions. Now it's not.

 

[SoundAndFury]

So to me this looks like a change on the Belarusian end, since it isn't just one team drafting Belarusians all of a sudden, but a whole bunch of them. Sure seems like an organized, conscious decision with planning involved.

Or Belarus simply got a lot more creditability with the recent success and teams aren't afraid to draft them.

 

[Namejs]

Or Belarus simply got a lot more creditability with the recent success and teams aren't afraid to draft them.

It can be one of the reasons - definitely. I want to reiterate that I'm mostly making educated assumptions here.

Maybe the English of young Belarusians has improved, maybe that's a factor as well. No idea.

But irrespective of whether it's on Belarus, CHL or both, this whole North America dimension has switched things up for them and their development programme.

Latvia went that same route a decade ago or more, and the results have been mixed. Quite frankly, for middling prospects with no real chances of ever becoming more than bottom pairing Ds or 4th line scrubs, CHL is probably not a very good career choice. And we see that reflected in the Latvian hockey world, most kids are now choosing the USHL-NCAA (or worst case scenario NAHL) route or European junior teams with guaranteed ice time in SHL/Allsvenskan or NLA/Swiss2 rather than going the CHL route.

But since the European route is probably not a real alternative for Belarus since they're not a part of the EU, this is probably the best they can do.

 

[Elias40]

I'm relatively sure it's usually an agent-player sort of a deal not just a random email after the fact. There's usually some communication going on beforehand.

So to me this looks like a change on the Belarusian end, since it isn't just one team drafting Belarusians all of a sudden, but a whole bunch of them. Sure seems like an organized, conscious decision with planning involved.

It is not a bad thing that the CHL clubs turned their attention to Belarus. It is a sign that Belarusian hockey has started to do something well in its educational program and the best players have an alternative to leaving for Russia. Of course, this does not mean that Belarus will now have two new players in the NHL every year, but it is a sign that the hockey world can find talent or talents outside the top5 countries. And the more young and talented players in countries like Slovakia, Germany, Belarus, Latvia, Switzerland or the Czechia, the better right?

 

[Namejs]

It is not a bad thing that the CHL clubs turned their attention to Belarus. It is a sign that Belarusian hockey has started to do something well in its educational program and the best players have an alternative to leaving for Russia. Of course, this does not mean that Belarus will now have two new players in the NHL every year, but it is a sign that the hockey world can find talent or talents outside the top5 countries.

No, this is not what's happening.

They didn't save them from Belarus or Russia, they simply placed them in a different system. It can be a good thing, but it can also be a bad thing for their development.

Sending over all of their decent to great prospects to North America would be a bad choice, and they're going to see why when they start turning 20, 21. Overaged players with not a lot of pro experience, the NHL dream crushed, not ready for the KHL. CHL players can become tied to their teams and they tend to overstay there, stunting their growth after they're 19+yo.

Note that all of the leagues in CHL are worse than the Belarusian league in terms of quality of play.

 

[ozo]

So to me this looks like a change on the Belarusian end, since it isn't just one team drafting Belarusians all of a sudden, but a whole bunch of them. Sure seems like an organized, conscious decision with planning involved.

The only change is as stated - better kids went over and unsurprisingly found unprecedented (for Belarussians) success, enticing both CHL and players in Belarus to follows the footsteps of Kolyachyonok, Protas and co because it turned out to be beneficial for both parties. There is no mysterious puppet master behind scenes that forces players abroad when previously that didn't happen. Flint found success with Kolyachyonok, then Oksentyuk and now they keep taking drafted Belarussians like Kuzmin now. Conveyer belt has been established so to speak.

Btw their English is still non-existent, you mentioned it in some other post.

 

[Elias40]

No, this is not what's happening.

They didn't save them from Belarus or Russia, they simply placed them in a different system. It can be a good thing, but it can also be a bad thing for their development.

Sending over all of their decent to great prospects to North America would be a bad choice, and they're going to see why when they start turning 20, 21. Overaged players with not a lot of pro experience, the NHL dream crushed, not ready for the KHL. CHL players can become tied to their teams and they tend to overstay there, stunting their growth after they're 19+yo.

Note that all of the leagues in CHL are worse than the Belarusian league in terms of quality of play.

Yeah, I see what you mean. Again, however, Belarus it not in a position where everyone has potential to flee to the NA. If you leave the CHL team at the age of 17 and after two season you see that playing in the NA has not moved you anywhere, you have the opportunity to go back to Belarus. And at 19 years, your'e not old enough for your progress to stop completely.

Of course, Belarus will never reach the quality of the J20, but it has the opportunity the create the conditions for development that will be good enough for their best young players to make a good career in Europe if their dream of the NHL is crushed.

And what is the optimal model for a country like Belarus? Keep all best your juniors at home / in Russia, or let some juniors leave for NA? We do not yet know the answer to this questions , because Belarus still has few players who are able to face Sweden, Finland or Russia.

 

[Namejs]

The only change is as stated - better kids went over and unsurprisingly found unprecedented (for Belarussians) success, enticing both CHL and players in Belarus to follows the footsteps of Kolyachyonok, Protas and co because it turned out to be beneficial for both parties. There is no mysterious puppet master behind scenes that forces players abroad when previously that didn't happen. Flint found success with Kolyachyonok, then Oksentyuk and now they keep taking drafted Belarussians like Kuzmin now. Conveyer belt has been established so to speak.

Btw their English is still non-existent, you mentioned it in some other post.

It usually is piss poor, and whenever I've tried conversing with some Belarusian in English online they assume I mean in the Latin alphabet, implying they don't even consider actually being able to speak English a real possibility.

But these things can change and we're talking about 16 year olds. I literally have no idea if their English is better than that of the 30 or 40 year olds.

Oh, and Belarusians have played in the CHL before.
These aren't exactly trailblazers of any kind

 

[ozo]

Oh, and Belarusians have played in the CHL before. These aren't exactly trailblazers of any kind

I obviously wasn't implying that, but the mass movement and success is a new thing. Anyway, not that I particularly disagree with stuff you are posting here, but I have a sneaky suspicion that you find it very hard to believe that Belarus might have simply improved their junior pool quality and that rubs me the wrong way

 

[Namejs]

I obviously wasn't implying that, but the mass movement and success is a new thing. Anyway, not that I particularly disagree with stuff you are posting here, but I have a sneaky suspicion that you find it very hard to believe that Belarus might have simply improved their junior pool quality and that rubs me the wrong way

We are destined for clashing with each other, as one of my pet peeves is projecting future success from this extremely insular North American point of view where somehow just being in the CHL indicates improvement or success by default. Or, you know, whenever someone makes the NHL from a 2nd tier nation it's like suddenly an entire fanbase (and beyond) realizes they actually play hockey over there and somehow the value of all of their other prospects increases. And I think that's what's going on with Belarusian stonks.

But hese things are prone to bias and I might be wrong.

Belarus might have improved, but I truly am skeptical. I don't honestly think they have improved much relative to others. Their showing at the junior level is mostly the result of switching up the assets what they have already and just organizing stuff more efficiently.

I don't see them overtaking Latvia during the next 5 years and that's even with their ridiculous import players.

 

[ozo]

We are destined for clashing with each other, as one of my pet peeves is projecting future success from this extremely insular North American point of view where somehow just being in the CHL indicates improvement or success by default.

No no, you brought the CHL up in the first place. I only see CHL as a sign that Belarus players at the age of 17-18 are better than ever, whether or not that ever leads to bunches of players being propelled into great pro careers is yet to be seen. I also personally lean towards saying no, I see no reason why Belarussian success rate in CHL would better than the abysmal one of Czech, Slovak or Russian players.