WJC: 2022 IIHF WM U20 D1A in Hörsholm, Denmark ( december 12 - 18)

[A Bundy]

No matter what happens, I am really optimistic about the state of the Norwegian national teams right now. They have outplayed Belarus for two periods, and this is to my understanding a solid generation on their side. The positive sentiment before the tourney is confirmed in many ways IMO. Stensrud looks good today, and gonna be fun to watch him at U18 worlds in spring. An early goal by Norway now could make things really interesting; both in a situation where they need to score two goals.

 

[Fjorden]

No matter what happens, I am really optimistic about the state of the Norwegian national teams right now. They have outplayed Belarus for two periods, and this is to my understanding a solid generation on their side. The positive sentiment before the tourney is confirmed in many ways IMO. Stensrud looks good today, and gonna be fun to watch him at U18 worlds in spring. An early goal by Norway now could make things really interesting; both in a situation where they need to score two goals.

I think after that 2-0 goal Norway lost some momentum, and Belarus looked more dangerous. Belarus won the shots also 9-7 in 2nd period.
But 1st period was dominant by Norway.

 

[A Bundy]

Belurus running it a bit now. Some more desperation in their game.

 

[SoundAndFury]

So Namejs was correct, Norway's goalies only allow roughly one more goal per game on the same amount of shots compared to Kolosov. I don't think that makes Norway fans feel any better though

 

[ozo]

Horrible to watch this as a Belarus fan.

 

[SoundAndFury]

Well done Norway, you fought bravely. Once again, just like in the Latvia game, Kolosov was the difference.

But in the tournament overall, I think it's safe to say Belarus wasn't so much superior as I think some people hoped.

Horrible to watch this as a Belarus fan.

That's what you get for being Belarus fan

 

[A Bundy]

Congrats Belurus! Perfect tourney, and really cool with so may players playing in Belarus. Stensrud was good, and will get even better.

 

[ozo]

Will brag about how dominant Belarus tournament was when looking back at tournament table in year or so.

 

[PanniniClaus]

Glad to see Belarus come up.. They have the ability to stay up next year.

 

[wings5]

What in the world happened to Denmark?

 

[kudla]

What in the world happened to Denmark?

Yeah, 7 years ago they beat Russia and were supposed to be the next good hockey nation. Today they almost got relegated in a lower division

 

[Namejs]

Yeah, 7 years ago they beat Russia and were supposed to be the next good hockey nation. Today they almost got relegated in a lower division

I've been saying this for years. The fundamentals of their hockey system have never been great. They haven't changed much over the years.

They had an extremely lucky crop of players, with a relatively large NHL contingent, but that was just variance/luck. It made many people convinced that Denmark is an up and coming hockey nation about to join the likes of Sweden or Finland. It was just wishful thinking based on nothing.

They are not becoming better or worse, it was always expected that they're going to return back to their normal state.

Which is not below Hungary and being at the same tier as Estonia, but rather among the other 2nd tier nations. A little worse than Slovakia, a little better than France. This is not going to change due to having a bad crop of players for a year or two.

There's no reason to suddenly jump the ship and start claiming their entire programme is sinking. They're going to be fine.

 

[SoundAndFury]

The rise of Eastern nations due to obvious political/economic factors is also a partial reason. Belarus, Kazakhstan and to a lesser extent Latvia and Hungary are much more dangerous than they have been 2000s and even the early 2010s. Back in those days, a down year for Denmark and Norway meant they are still fighting for medals if not promotion. Now, a bad year might mean you are going down as Norway did. Realistically, next year's tournament is going to be even more competitive with France back.

 

[A Bundy]

Yeah, 7 years ago they beat Russia and were supposed to be the next good hockey nation. Today they almost got relegated in a lower division

I dived into union's web page to get an overview of the number of teams a while, and where Norway has 35-40 teams in the younger age groups at every age they seem to be bundling age groups earlier with fewer teams. They do have the advantage of having a good program from early on, small geographical distances (an issue in Norway for games and rink access), proximity to Sweden and last but not least less competition for talent from other winter sports than in the other Nordics.

 

[Fjorden]

Denmark allow 8 import players in Metalligaen. They should reduce that number.
Norway allow 6 import players in FKL(Fjordkraftligaen). More young norwegian players get the chanche to play senior hockey then.
Only 4 imports as in NL in Switzerland reduces the quality to much in their leaague

I think 6 imports is the "sweet spot".

 

[SoundAndFury]

Frankly, I think for a country with Denmark's talent pool 8 is more than fine. Swiss also allow more than 4 (I think it's 5) and they want to increase it. There is no point in gifting domestic players slots and making your league objectively much worse in the process.

 

[Fjorden]

Frankly, I think for a country with Denmark's talent pool 8 is more than fine. Swiss also allow more than 4 (I think it's 5) and they want to increase it. There is no point in gifting domestic players slots and making your league objectively much worse in the process.

Seven imports in the National League from 2022/23 onwards

The swiss NL allows 4 imports today, but they will increase the number next season to 7.

The clubs have more incentive to invest in homegrown players if you allow fewer imports, that will strengthen the u20, u18 and national teams. But it is a balance, allowing fewer will decrease the quality of the league. In Norway FKL their was discussion of going down to 5 imports, but they decided for now to stay with 6.

 

[SoundAndFury]

The swiss NL allows 4 imports today, but they will increase the number next season to 7.

The clubs have more incentive to invest in homegrown players if you allow fewer imports, that will strengthen the u20, u18 and national teams. But it is a balance, allowing fewer will decrease the quality of the league. In Norway FKL their was discussion of going down to 5 imports, but they decided for now to stay with 6.

I didn't do thorough research but Zug, for one, ices 5 imports most of the time. So it's definitely not 4.

I understand the need for some limit so that local players could still have some real roles on the team (unlike in EIHL, for example) but for leagues like Denmark or Norway, at the cusp of professional and semi-professional hockey, watering it down even more seems like a risky proposition.

 

[Namejs]

Denmark allow 8 import players in Metalligaen. They should reduce that number.
Norway allow 6 import players in FKL(Fjordkraftligaen). More young norwegian players get the chanche to play senior hockey then.
Only 4 imports as in NL in Switzerland reduces the quality to much in their leaague

I think 6 imports is the "sweet spot".

What is the point of having more spots for junior players if they record 0 points in 100 games as it is now? Look at the Danish U20 squad.

 

[Fjorden]

I didn't do thorough research but Zug, for one, ices 5 imports most of the time. So it's definitely not 4.

I understand the need for some limit so that local players could still have some real roles on the team (unlike in EIHL, for example) but for leagues like Denmark or Norway, at the cusp of professional and semi-professional hockey, watering it down even more seems like a risky proposition.

The thing is in Norway FKL(Fjordkraftligaen), the three bottom teams Ringerike, Manglerud and Grüner have very small budgets maybe around 500.000 euro. They can't afford to have good imports. They are importing mainly recycled "HockeyEttan" players. They might be slightly better than our junior players, but they don't make the league better. Having more imports from HockeyEttan, well then I rather have more norwegian junior players.

The top 7 teams in Norway though is a other case. They can have good imports from better leagues like Liiga, AHL even a few with good NHL, SHL and KHL experience, but also many from HockeyAllsvenskan. For instance imports like this Tommi Taimi at eliteprospects.com
These are imports that increases the quality of the league. The top 7 teams have decent budgets from around 1,5 millon euro up to 5 million euro. These teams are full proffesional or close to full proffesional.

So the gap financially between bottom 3 and top 7 i Norway is huge. The three bottom teams can't afford to have imports that really increases the quality of the league much. So having more foreign imports will water down the league even more with cheap HocekyEttan players for the bottom three blocking for good norwegian junior players.

But I know the norwegian icehockey federation and some club owners are discussing a model more similar to the NHL and KHL where you have other criterias like having a minimum budget around 2 million euro, arena capacity, medical staff, having an extra womens team etc. Then the low bugdet clubs risk losing the license to play in the top league FKL not fullyfing the requirements. And new teams will be added based on those criterias e.g budget, arena. capacity...But that will happen maybe in five years and nothing i set yet, but a new model more like NHL, KHL is being discussed to increase the quality of the league. More imports will not happen, more likely with less right the coming years.

So for FKL Norway I see it as more likely now that they will go for a new model more like NHL, KHL to increase the quality, not more imports. They don't want to water it out with more cheap imports for bottom teams. with low budget.

Source:
Kan risikere å bli nektet plass i ligaen: - Det blir ubehagelig

 

[ozo]

There is some middle middle ground between forcing teams play local kids and turning your league into EIHL. One thing is to demand U20 player or two, completely different thing is to enforce fourteen-something-ish domestic player rule upon clubs when there is no basis for that.

Even best of the kids need pathway into senior hockey (whether it is NHL or Metalligaen), but at the same of the time they need challenging competition to grow as players.

 

[Elias40]

Can anyone please tell me who is following the Belarusian educational program, whether Belarus can become a regular participant in the WJC in the long term or will they play in the U18 WC every year?

I know they don't have a large player base, but I can still raise some very good players. At one time. Belarus looked seriously bad, stagnant, and France seemed to skip them. So what did they start to do differently and obviously better than in the past?

 

[SoundAndFury]

The thing is in Norway FKL(Fjordkraftligaen), the three bottom teams Ringerike, Manglerud and Grüner have very small budgets maybe around 500.000 euro. They can't afford to have good imports. They are importing mainly recycled "HockeyEttan" players. They might be slightly better than our junior players, but they don't make the league better. Having more imports from HockeyEttan, well then I rather have more norwegian junior players.

But that is the core of the problem exactly. Those teams choose imports that they do because they can't afford better ones. By reducing the import limit you make it so the domestic player is even more expensive (that's what Swiss clubs rightly complain about). So the teams with smaller budgets have no chance whatsoever to be at least semi-competitive. The only choice becomes to not play in the top league and, in the end, instead of creating spots for domestic players you destroy them.

Can anyone please tell me who is following the Belarusian educational program, whether Belarus can become a regular participant in the WJC in the long term or will they play in the U18 WC every year?

I know they don't have a large player base, but I can still raise some very good players. At one time. Belarus looked seriously bad, stagnant, and France seemed to skip them. So what did they start to do differently and obviously better than in the past?

Hopefully ozo answers you since he knows the situation much more accurately than I do but if not, I will give you my best take in a day or two.

 

[ozo]

Can anyone please tell me who is following the Belarusian educational program, whether Belarus can become a regular participant in the WJC in the long term or will they play in the U18 WC every year?

I know they don't have a large player base, but I can still raise some very good players. At one time. Belarus looked seriously bad, stagnant, and France seemed to skip them. So what did they start to do differently and obviously better than in the past?

They have all the ingredients to be a top 10 team in the world at all levels, be it U18, U20 or senior level. Belarus is one of the very few countries that actually cares about hockey, so in this case I think it is worth pointing out that its population is double the size of Finland so there should be plenty of chances to churn out quality players year after year.

There is a combination of factors why Belarus seems to be improving. It all started with arena building boom in 00's, so kids can pick up hockey in places it was not possible before. Just compare U20 roster birthplaces this year and 20 years ago. Difference is easy to spot and I think it is safe to assume that more arenas mean more potential talent can be discovered.

I somewhat want to give a tiny credit to Dinamo Minsk getting a KHL team in creating hype around hockey itself and as we see in past couple seasons it has created a pathway for the most talented kids into serious pro hockey. Dinamo helps in keeping few extra kids not defecting to Russia every year as they have local KHL team at home. I wrote a tiny credit because it also helped seriously weakening domestic league which before KHL, even though dominated by imports, was a very serious league in my opinion.

Tying together with Dinamo keeping talent at home, very important is that KHL couple of years ago decided that Belarussian players will not count as foreigners on Russian teams. It is huge because every year there were handful of talented kids picking up Russian passports and refusing to play for Belarus in order better their chances of earning living with hockey. This probably will never fully stop because the line between a Belarussian and Russian for plenty of people seem very thin and we will continue seeing see players born in Belarus wanting to play for Russia NT. Now we some former defectors, like Kodola, Zhuk, Shostak returning into Belarus fold and some will not pick up Russian passports in first place anymore helping out Belarus NT quite a bit.

Equally important is the creation of national development teams (U17 and U18) US style that spends all season together and acts like a hockey academy that plays in second tier of Belarus league system. It also helps keeping kids from poorer regional Belarussian cities not to choose richer Russian academy offers when they come knocking with offers to join them. Just check Belarus U18 results in last 5 years, of course playing together for whole year or in most cases two years, is huge deal and that inflates team's success on international stage, but it also would not be possible with adequate talent and development. Beating Finland, Russia and Czech Republic shows potential is there, soon these results should also reflect in senior NT's tournaments.

 

[Elias40]

They have all the ingredients to be a top 10 team in the world at all levels, be it U18, U20 or senior level. Belarus is one of the very few countries that actually cares about hockey, so in this case I think it is worth pointing out that its population is double the size of Finland so there should be plenty of chances to churn out quality players year after year.

There is a combination of factors why Belarus seems to be improving. It all started with arena building boom in 00's, so kids can pick up hockey in places it was not possible before. Just compare U20 roster birthplaces this year and 20 years ago. Difference is easy to spot and I think it is safe to assume that more arenas mean more potential talent can be discovered.

I somewhat want to give a tiny credit to Dinamo Minsk getting a KHL team in creating hype around hockey itself and as we see in past couple seasons it has created a pathway for the most talented kids into serious pro hockey. Dinamo helps in keeping few extra kids not defecting to Russia every year as they have local KHL team at home. I wrote a tiny credit because it also helped seriously weakening domestic league which before KHL, even though dominated by imports, was a very serious league in my opinion.

Tying together with Dinamo keeping talent at home, very important is that KHL couple of years ago decided that Belarussian players will not count as foreigners on Russian teams. It is huge because every year there were handful of talented kids picking up Russian passports and refusing to play for Belarus in order better their chances of earning living with hockey. This probably will never fully stop because the line between a Belarussian and Russian for plenty of people seem very thin and we will continue seeing see players born in Belarus wanting to play for Russia NT. Now we some former defectors, like Kodola, Zhuk, Shostak returning into Belarus fold and some will not pick up Russian passports in first place anymore helping out Belarus NT quite a bit.

Equally important is the creation of national development teams (U17 and U18) US style that spends all season together and acts like a hockey academy that plays in second tier of Belarus league system. It also helps keeping kids from poorer regional Belarussian cities not to choose richer Russian academy offers when they come knocking with offers to join them. Just check Belarus U18 results in last 5 years, of course playing together for whole year or in most cases two years, is huge deal and that inflates team's success on international stage, but it also would not be possible with adequate talent and development. Beating Finland, Russia and Czech Republic shows potential is there, soon these results should also reflect in senior NT's tournaments.

I have another question, how expensive is hockey for family in Belarus? Let's say for middle class? And if a little boy is interested in a hockey club, but his parents do not make enough money, will the club itself offer help in the form of a scholarship or some other support? I live in the Czech Republic and the view of parents today is thath hockey is an expensive sport, not only for money but also for the time that parents have to travel to training or matches. That is why floorball also takes some children from hockey and at the same time it is a significantly cheaper sport.